Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper and aluminum sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these commodities [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - Recent fluctuations in base metal prices are primarily influenced by expectations of macroeconomic policy stimulus in China, with copper and aluminum prices expected to gradually rise in the long term [3]. - The supply side for copper and aluminum faces capacity constraints, with copper supply growth remaining low due to capital expenditures and operational factors, while domestic aluminum production is nearing its capacity limit [3]. - Demand for copper and aluminum is expected to remain robust, driven by post-industrial manufacturing growth and the transition of energy structures in recent years [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a decline of 6.24%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.68 percentage points [6]. 2. Industrial Metal Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Aluminum - Policy benefits and the cost support from alumina are driving aluminum prices upward [14]. - The average profit per ton for aluminum has recovered to around 2000 RMB [3]. 2.2 Copper - Copper prices are showing a strong performance, supported by ongoing fiscal stimulus expectations in China and positive macroeconomic data from overseas [3][32]. - The average price of electrolytic copper has decreased, while copper concentrate processing fees have increased [32]. 2.3 Zinc - Zinc prices have seen a slight increase, with SMM zinc prices rising [39]. 2.4 Tin - Tin prices have also increased, reflecting a positive trend in the market [39]. 3. Precious Metal Fundamentals Tracking - Gold prices rebounded after a decline, driven by inflation expectations following the release of U.S. CPI data [3]. 4. Energy Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Tracking 4.1 Lithium - The price of lithium carbonate has seen a slight increase, with production expected to decline due to maintenance and weather conditions [3]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the importance of monitoring key companies such as China Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and Luoyang Molybdenum for potential investment opportunities [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive sector [3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to experience an upward trend, with recommendations to increase allocation in automotive stocks. The implementation of vehicle trade-in policies and new car launches in September are anticipated to boost retail sales [8][9]. - Tesla's "Robotaxi Day" showcased new products including the Cybercab and Robovan, which are expected to significantly reduce transportation costs and environmental impact. The Cybercab is projected to launch in 2026 at a cost below $30,000 [7][8]. - Xiaopeng's P7+ model was officially unveiled, featuring advanced AI driving capabilities and a comprehensive suite of sensors and chips, marking a step towards becoming a global AI automotive company [7][8]. Summary by Sections Weekly Dynamics - The automotive sector underperformed the market, with the automotive index declining by 4.6% from October 4 to October 11, 2024. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.6% during the same period [9][11]. - The automotive sector's PE-TTM (not adjusted) stands at 26.6, with historical valuation percentiles indicating a relatively high valuation compared to the past year [11]. Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - GWM (Great Wall Motors) rated as "Buy" with a year-to-date increase of 18.3% [2]. - Fuyao Glass rated as "Buy" but has seen a year-to-date decline of 27.0% [2]. - The top gainers for the week included Jingu Co. (+12.0%) and Fulin Precision (+11.2%), while the biggest losers included Jinlong Automobile (-15.6%) and *ST Hengli (-13.2%) [16][17]. Important News and Announcements - Tesla's new product launches and Xiaopeng's P7+ reveal are significant developments in the automotive industry, indicating a shift towards more advanced and cost-effective electric vehicles [7][8]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies in stimulating the automotive market, particularly through trade-in incentives and support for new energy vehicles [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Shaanxi Coal and "Hold" ratings to several other companies including China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Huabei Mining [1][44]. Core Insights - The report highlights that thermal coal prices have shown slight fluctuations, with daily consumption levels better than the same period last year. As of October 12, the Qinhuangdao thermal coal price was 870 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5 RMB/ton from September 30 [2][6]. - Coking coal prices have strengthened, with significant increases noted in various regions. For instance, Shanxi coking coal reached 1950 RMB/ton, up 100 RMB/ton from September 30 [3][20]. - The report anticipates continued improvement in coking coal demand due to fiscal policies and rising steel prices, suggesting that coking coal prices have upward elasticity and potential for further increases [3][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of October 12, the port price for thermal coal was 870 RMB/ton, with a long-term contract price of 699 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.4% [2][6]. - The average daily consumption for coastal provinces was 181.0 million tons, an increase of 11.4 million tons week-on-week [9][16]. - The total coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 27.6 million tons for the week ending October 6, a decrease of 179,000 tons from the previous week [16]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices have increased significantly, with Shanxi coking coal at 1950 RMB/ton, an increase of 100 RMB/ton from the previous report [3][20]. - The coke price index reached 1703 RMB/ton, up 89 RMB/ton from September 30, while the cost index was 1960 RMB/ton, indicating a gap of 257 RMB/ton [24][20]. - The report notes that the demand for coking coal is expected to improve due to rising steel production and supportive fiscal policies [3][43]. 3. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with specific recommendations for companies that exhibit stable performance and high return on equity [43][44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with strong fundamentals and attractive valuations in the current market environment [43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home furnishing sector, with specific recommendations to increase holdings in key companies such as Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and Sun Paper [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization due to favorable policies, which is expected to marginally improve the home furnishing sector's performance [1][15]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's recent announcements indicate a strong commitment to supporting the real estate market, which is anticipated to benefit home furnishing companies [1][15]. - The report notes significant increases in housing transactions during the National Day holiday, with Shenzhen seeing a 664% year-on-year increase in new housing subscriptions [1][15]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - **Policy Developments**: The government is implementing comprehensive measures to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios for housing loans [1][15]. - **Market Performance**: During the National Day holiday, various cities reported substantial increases in housing transactions, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1][15]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on leading brands in the home furnishing sector, particularly custom furniture companies like Oppein Home and Sofia, as well as soft furniture brands like Kuka Home [1][15]. Paper Industry - **Price Trends**: The average price of domestic needle pulp is 5775 RMB/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.4% week-on-week, while the average price of broadleaf pulp is 4710 RMB/ton, up 0.2% [3][16]. - **Cultural Paper Outlook**: The report anticipates a recovery in cultural paper prices in Q4, suggesting a focus on leading companies like Sun Paper [3][16]. Packaging Sector - **Market Dynamics**: The report recommends attention to high-dividend stocks in the packaging sector, particularly in plastic and metal packaging, as the industry undergoes consolidation [4][17]. - **Investment Focus**: Companies like Yongxin Co. in plastic packaging and Aorijin in metal packaging are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4][17]. Export Sector - **Export Growth**: The report notes robust growth in specific export categories, such as mattresses and stainless steel thermal cups, with increases of 11.2% and 22.6% year-on-year, respectively [4][17]. - **Investment Strategy**: It suggests focusing on companies in the export chain that are positioned to benefit from the recovery in the U.S. real estate market [4][17].

重点公司 评级 中际旭创 增持 天孚通信 增持 新易盛 增持 中瓷电子 增持 鼎通科技 增持 中兴通讯 增持 亿联网络 增持 英维克 增持 意华股份 增持 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 相关报告 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 通信 行 业 周 报 《【兴证通信】周观点：牛市行 情通信如何配置？》2024-10-07 《【兴证通信】周观点：大涨行 情通信如何配置？》2024-09-29 《【兴证通信】周观点：o1 模型 加速 AI 产业趋势》2024-09-22 分析师： 章林 zhanglin20@xyzq.com.cn S0190520070002 代小笛 daixiaodi@xyzq.com.cn S0190521090001 仇新宇 qiuxinyu@xyzq.com.cn S0190523070005 朱锟旭 zhukunxu@xyzq.com.cn S0190524040001 许梓豪 xuzihao@xyzq.com.cn S0190524070002 研究助理： 王灵境 wanglingjing@xyzq.com.cn 【兴证通信】通信行业周报（10.08-10.13）： 掘金三季报 推荐 ( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook due to recent financial and fiscal policy measures that exceed expectations [3][10]. Core Insights - Recent financial and fiscal policies are expected to support local debt resolution, stabilize the real estate market, and enhance the asset quality outlook for banks. The anticipated measures include a significant increase in debt limits and the issuance of special government bonds to bolster the core tier one capital of major state-owned banks [3][10]. - The report highlights that while net interest margins may continue to face pressure, the rate of decline is expected to slow compared to previous forecasts. Additionally, the government plans to enhance the capital of six major banks, which will improve their operational stability and dividend sustainability [3][10]. - The report recommends specific banks based on two main strategies: improving risk appetite and debt resolution expectations, with a focus on banks like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Qilu Bank; and a dividend strategy benefiting from the central bank's SFISF tool, recommending Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China [3][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The CITIC Bank Index slightly decreased by 0.60%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.65 percentage points. Notable performers included Postal Savings Bank (+3.61%) and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (+3.36%) [7]. - The Ministry of Finance announced a series of targeted policy measures to support local debt resolution and enhance the capital of major banks, which is expected to improve their credit issuance capabilities and support economic recovery [7][12]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the government's commitment to increasing fiscal policy measures to address economic challenges, including supporting local governments in managing hidden debts and stabilizing the real estate market through various financial instruments [11][12]. - The establishment of the SFISF by the central bank aims to enhance liquidity for financial institutions, allowing them to exchange lower-quality assets for higher-quality, liquid assets, thereby improving their capital acquisition capabilities [10][14]. Company Dynamics - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Merchants Bank, have announced adjustments to their existing mortgage rates, aligning them with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [16]. - The report includes updates on stock purchases by major shareholders in various banks, indicating ongoing confidence in the banking sector's stability and growth potential [17].

行 ＃title＃ 北 研 行 बार 周 周 究 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------|-------| | | 重点公司 | 评级 | | | 美的集团 | 增持 | | | | | | | 海尔智家 | 买入 | | | 石头科技 | 增持 | | | 海信视像 | 增持 | | | 新宝股份 | 增持 | yanxiaoqing@xyzq.com.cn S0190521020002 24W41 人民币汇率较 24W39 上升。2024 年 10 月 8 日-10 月 11 日，美元兑人民 币汇率周度均价 7.0803，较 24W39 上升 0.97%，同比-3.02%。 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 ＃相关rel报ate告dReport＃ 《【兴证家电】8 月家电出口景 气延续，继续看好家电配置价 值》2024-09-15 《【兴证家电】以旧换新加速落 地 ， 政 策 兑 现 弹 性 初 显 》 2024-09-08 《【兴证家电】家电行业 24 年 中报总结：板块内部分化，白电 韧性充足》2024-09-03 24W41 铜、铝、ABS、热轧板卷价格较 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment suggestion for the environmental protection industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The environmental protection industry is experiencing a valuation shift towards utility-like levels, with evident internal differentiation. Traditional environmental sectors are characterized by "low valuation, high dividend" traits, and their valuations are expected to be reassessed due to relatively high profit certainty. New industries are emerging, creating new environmental governance demands, such as semiconductor waste gas treatment, leading to the birth of several growth-oriented companies [3][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of sustainable and stable operational capabilities in the environmental protection industry. It suggests focusing on "low valuation, high dividend" stocks in the short term, while long-term attention should be given to companies with outstanding operational capabilities and potential for excess profits, as well as leading companies with significant potential in their second entrepreneurial phase [33][35] Summary by Sections Important Data Tracking - From October 8 to October 11, 2024, the national carbon market saw a trading volume of 979,500 tons, a significant increase of 521.74% compared to the previous period. The closing price for carbon emission allowances was 100.95 CNY/ton, showing a day-on-day decrease of 1.90% but an increase of 1.48% compared to the previous period [2][13] - In August 2024, the export volume of biodiesel and its mixtures was 60,000 tons, down 62.78% year-on-year and 40.82% month-on-month. The export price was 1,069.43 USD/ton, up 0.64% year-on-year and 1.93% month-on-month. The export volume of UCO was 299,000 tons, up 90.64% year-on-year and 66.11% month-on-month, with an export price of 897.24 USD/ton, down 1.82% year-on-year and 0.64% month-on-month [2][18] Sector Performance - During the period from October 8 to October 11, the A-share environmental protection index fell by 3.53%, while the H-share environmental protection index dropped by 10.38%. The overall market performance saw the Shanghai Composite Index decrease by 3.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.45%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.41% [20][21] - The report highlights the top five companies with the highest gains during this period: Deepwater Haina (31.10%), Chuangyuan Technology (18.49%), Zhongchuang Environmental Protection (11.39%), Qingyan Environment (10.63%), and Xianhe Environmental Protection (7.11%). Conversely, the bottom five companies were Haixin Nengke (-23.02%), Huakong Saige (-13.11%), Shenwu Energy Saving (-12.38%), Taihe Water (-12.03%), and China Tianying (-11.86%) [20] Industry News - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment have established a special fund management method for the treatment of waste electrical and electronic products, aiming to promote the recycling of waste materials. The fund will be managed by the two ministries and will be in effect from 2024 to 2027 [4][31] Key Company Announcements - The report includes significant announcements from key companies in the environmental sector, such as the planned major asset restructuring by Yuanda Environmental Protection and the dividend distribution plan by Qingda Environmental Protection [32][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the computer industry [1] Core Viewpoints - After significant volatility, the report suggests focusing more on industry changes and high-cost performance leaders [3][7] - Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 18, the computer industry has seen a cumulative increase of 37.7%, with a peak increase of 63.5%, ranking 2nd out of 30 industries [3][7] - The report indicates that despite recent market pullbacks, the computer sector has shown strong alpha, attributed to previous low expectations and a notable recovery in recent forecasts [3][7] Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting investment strategies post-volatility, highlighting the need for individual stock selection based on industry changes and cost performance [3][7] - It notes that public fund holdings in the sector have increased from 2.52% at the end of Q2 to an estimated 3% currently, with a historical median of 3.68% since 2019 [3][7] Securities IT Review - The report highlights the high elasticity of securities IT stocks, which have outperformed the market significantly since recent policy support [9][26] - It reviews historical bull markets, noting that securities IT stocks have consistently shown higher returns compared to the overall market during these periods [11][26] - The report identifies key companies in the securities IT sector, including Tonghuashun and Dongfang Wealth, which have demonstrated strong performance in previous bull markets [25][26] Current Marginal Changes in Industry Directions - The report identifies significant changes in sectors such as Xinchuang, Securities IT, Government IT, and Intelligent Driving, driven by policy support and market confidence [3][7] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring these sectors for potential investment opportunities as they are currently in a phase of expected improvement [3][7] Recommendations for Continued Focus - The report suggests ongoing attention to specific companies within the Securities IT sector, such as Hengsheng Electronics and Tonghuashun, as well as those in the Xinchuang sector like China Software and Kingsoft Office [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the media industry, with specific recommendations for companies within the gaming, traditional culture, and AI application sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The media sector has experienced three rounds of bottoming since 2018, currently in the early stages of the third round of recovery. Recent breakout events and the ongoing AI revolution are expected to drive a sustained rebound in the media industry [3][4][9]. - The gaming market is anticipated to accelerate recovery, driven by the success of titles like "Black Myth: Wukong," which has set new records for domestic AAA games, and the increasing demand from the "he economy" trend [14][16]. - The report highlights the potential for a new wave of mergers and acquisitions in the media sector, supported by regulatory changes that may facilitate cross-industry mergers and acquisitions [15][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - From October 8 to October 11, 2024, the Shenwan Media sector declined by 8.57%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 5.31 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 5.15 percentage points [7][8]. Key Data Tracking - In the gaming sector, 109 new games received approval in September 2024, contributing to a total of 1,034 approvals for the year. The success of "Black Myth: Wukong" has significantly boosted market confidence [18][22]. - In terms of variety shows, Mango TV had 6 exclusive shows in the Top 20, while Tencent Video also had 6, indicating strong competition among platforms [30][31]. - For drama series, Tencent Video led with 8 exclusive shows in the Top 20, followed by iQIYI with 4 and Youku with 2 [32][33]. Investment Recommendations - Three main investment themes are recommended: 1. **Gaming Sector**: Companies like Kayi Network and Yaoji Technology are highlighted for their potential growth due to the success of "Black Myth: Wukong" [16][18]. 2. **Traditional Culture**: Companies with strong IP reserves, such as Guomai Culture and Light Media, are recommended for their potential in high-quality cultural products [16][18]. 3. **AI Applications**: Companies like Kunlun Wanwei are suggested for their advancements in AI technology and applications [16][17]. Major Events - The launch of Kimi's exploration version, which significantly enhances search capabilities, and ByteDance's release of the AI smart earphone Ola Friend, are notable developments in the AI sector [35].