Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report highlights the potential for growth in China's military trade, driven by increasing global military expenditures and the transition from low-cost exports to high-end weaponry [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring three key signals regarding the U.S.-Iran situation, which could impact market dynamics significantly [11][12] - The report suggests that the recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets [30][32] Group 2: Stock Market Focus - The report identifies specific stocks to watch in the context of military trade, including AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and Aerospace Rainbow, which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for military technology [21][20] - The report notes that the AI industry is exhibiting characteristics of a "rigid bubble," with companies like NVIDIA and GE Vernova being highlighted as key players [34][36] - The report suggests that the Taiwanese stock market is benefiting from strong export performance, particularly in the semiconductor sector, despite valuation pressures [34][36] Group 3: ETF Recommendations - The report recommends investing in SPDR® Gold ETF and STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF as strategic options to capitalize on the current market conditions [22][27] - The report provides performance metrics for these ETFs, indicating strong returns over various time frames, which supports their inclusion in investment strategies [25][28] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The report advises investors to consider reducing exposure to long-duration U.S. Treasuries as yields decline due to geopolitical tensions, suggesting a tactical approach to bond investments [30][32] - The report highlights the performance of various bond categories, including U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds, indicating a mixed outlook based on current market conditions [5][30]

本周观点 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店，整体咖啡行业价格竞争趋缓；阿 拉比卡咖啡期货价格持续下跌，后续有望带来成本改善。2）茶饮：略有承压；短期平台 AI 流量大战，奶茶成为 引流品，数据依旧具备韧性；但有关"糖税"征收相关研究讨论引发市场担忧。 电商：持续承压。受国内消费环境影响，整体国内电商基本面表现平淡。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应驱动盈利杠杆释放。 网易云音乐 2025 年收入略微不及预期，关注 2026 年音乐订阅业务有望量价齐升。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：地缘冲突风险加剧，币价持续承压。香港 2026-2027 年度财政预算案确认香港年内将 提交法案，建立虚拟资产交易商及托管服务提供者的发牌制度，监管范围将进一步扩展至场外交易等数字资产买 卖业务。 汽车服务：IAM中，多家主机系汽服连锁蛰伏后市场，车后连锁品牌持续加码开店 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年2月29日 AI周报： AI快速发展，AI HALO资产价值彰显 行业研究 · 行业专题 计算机&通信 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：熊莉 021-61761067 xiongli1@guosen.com.cn S0980519030002 证券分析师：艾宪 0755-22941051 aixian@guosen.com.cn S0980524090001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 AI HALO：AI领域的重资产、低淘汰率 图1：美国基建股指数价格波动（25年1月-26年2月） 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 图2：美国SaaS指数价格波动（25年1月-26年2月） n AI HALO：AI领域的重资产、低淘汰率。 Ø 定义：HALO = Heavy Assets（重资产）+ Low Obsolescence（低淘汰率）。其中，重资产是指其商业模式建立在庞大的实物资本基础之上，具有很高 复制壁垒（例如成本、监管、建设时间、工程复杂性、网络整合难度 ...

一、市场: ●2月28日收盘：美股收跌道指跌逾500点 三大股指本周均录得跌幅 周五美股成交额靠前的公司表现不一。英伟达收跌4.16%，虽业绩超预期，但投资者担忧人工智能支出可持续性。特斯拉收跌1.49%，多家联邦机构对xAI工 具有安全担忧，而五角大楼允许其聊天机器人用于机密环境。微软收跌2.24%，重申与OpenAI合作稳固。苹果收跌3.21%，同意提高三星存储芯片价格。奈 飞收高13.77%，退出竞购被视为注重财务纪律。闪迪收跌2.54%，遭做空机构质疑估值。戴尔收高21.93%，业绩超预期且下季营收预测强劲。 ●2月28日热门中概股多数下跌 金山云涨6.98%，蔚来跌4.32% 周五油价上涨逾2%，交易商在美国与伊朗延长核谈判后，对潜在供应中断保持警惕。布伦特原油期货和纽约商品交易所4月交割的西得州中质原油期货均有 涨幅。不确定性及恐惧情绪推高油价，受伊朗核谈判及美可能军事行动影响。美伊周四间接会谈，期间因美要求伊朗零铀浓缩讨论陷入僵局致油价上涨，后 阿曼调解人表示取得进展，油价回落。双方计划下周在维也纳恢复技术讨论。因担心冲突中断供应，油价有地缘政治风险溢价。此外，阿联酋、沙特计划增 产，沙特或提高 ...

AI需求激增叠加成本上升，功率半导体全球涨价10%～20%，MOSFET、IGBT紧缺；6/8英寸晶圆产能趋紧，国产厂商扩产加速，行业迎量价齐升拐点。 继存储芯片之后，芯片涨价潮正蔓延至功率半导体。 海外厂商中，2月5日，国际功率半导体巨头英飞凌宣布，因AI数据中心需求激增导致功率芯片短缺及成本上升，自4月1日起正式涨价。 国内厂商同步开启价格上调。自2月以来，华润微（688396.SH）、士兰微（600460）（600460.SH）、新洁能（605111）（605111.SH）、捷捷微电 （300623）（300623.SZ）、富满微（300671）（300671.SZ）等国内功率半导体企业也相继启动了涨价。 从市场流出的涨价通知函，记者了解到，涨价涉及产品范围集中在MOSFET器件、IGBT中，调整幅度普遍在10%至20%之间。 "年初以来，受大规模AI建设带来的挤出效应，以及原材料价格的大幅提升，电子行业上游越来越多环节出现提价，AI通胀出现蔓延。"第一上海证券研究指 出，近期，涨价风蔓延到功率器件领域，MOSFET领域公司如富满微、捷捷微电率先提出涨价，其他企业也在观望中，正酝酿涨价。 成本与需求双重 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's latest quarterly earnings report exceeded market expectations, yet the stock price fell by 5.46%, resulting in a market cap loss of over $250 billion, indicating investor concerns despite strong revenue growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Nvidia reported revenue of $68.1 billion for the latest quarter, a 73% year-over-year increase, marking a historical high [1]. - The company projected a midpoint revenue forecast of $78 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, surpassing analyst expectations of $66 billion for the fourth quarter and $72 billion for the next quarter [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the earnings report, Nvidia's stock decline was accompanied by drops in other semiconductor stocks, including AMD (down 3.41%), Broadcom (down 3.19%), and TSMC (down 2.82%) [1]. - Retail investors flocked to Nvidia post-earnings, but institutional investors expressed concerns about future market trends [1][2]. Group 3: Management Commentary - Nvidia's CFO highlighted that over 50% of data center revenue comes from large cloud service providers, with anticipated capital expenditures from the top five cloud firms nearing $700 billion by 2026 [2]. - CEO Jensen Huang expressed confidence in the cash flow growth of these clients, citing unprecedented computing demand driven by AI applications [2]. Group 4: Analyst Concerns - Analysts raised concerns about the sustainability of cash flows for major cloud providers, with predictions of significant negative free cash flow for Amazon and Alphabet due to high capital expenditures [3]. - Michael Burry questioned Nvidia's procurement obligations, which surged from $16.1 billion to $95.2 billion, suggesting potential complexities in Nvidia's chip business [3][4]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia faces increasing competition as companies like Meta and AMD announce partnerships for chip deployments, indicating a shift towards diversified procurement strategies [4]. - Despite concerns over AI infrastructure investments, Nvidia's stock performance has been relatively better compared to other major tech stocks, with a year-to-date decline of only 0.86% [6].

2026.02.27 本文字数：1759，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 郑栩彤 反映AI热潮风向标的英伟达最新季度财报，即便超出市场预期，仍然难挡股价下跌。 但这份财报未给市场带来足够信心。数据提供商Vanda Track的数据显示，散户投资者在英伟达发布最 新季度财报后蜂拥而入，并非导致股票抛售的幕后推手。机构则表达了对未来英伟达市场走势的担忧。 一方面，英伟达管理层在财报电话会中的表述被外界诟病。英伟达CFO提到几个数据，包括英伟达数据 中心业务来自超大规模云服务商的收入占比略超50%，以及分析师预测2026年前五大云厂商资本支出接 近7000亿美元，即便她强调英伟达其他客户类型也在多样化，但在问答环节，云厂商大客户的资本支出 是否见顶、资本支出过大带来的现金流问题，仍成为分析师关心的焦点。 英伟达CEO黄仁勋的回答是，他对这些客户的现金流增长很有信心，原因是世界各地的智能体应用产生 了难以置信的计算需求，AI已到达拐点，有用的token正在产生，云厂商有利可图。 但证券研究机构JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O'Rourke表示，投资者知道"天堂里有麻烦"，黄仁 勋所描述的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of the technology sector in the A-share market, driven by Nvidia's strong earnings report, but tempered by concerns over market volatility and AI sustainability [1][5][6] - Nvidia reported a revenue of $68.1 billion for Q4 of fiscal 2026, exceeding expectations of $65.91 billion, with a significant year-on-year increase from $39.33 billion [5] - The market remains skeptical about the sustainability of AI spending, with analysts questioning whether AI can deliver tangible cost savings or profits for businesses [6] Group 2 - The ChiNext 50 ETF (588870) experienced fluctuations, with a decline of over 1% in early trading after two consecutive days of gains, reflecting the overall market sentiment [1] - Key stocks within the ChiNext 50 ETF saw mixed performance, with notable declines in companies like Zhongwei Company (down over 4%) and Lanke Technology (down 2%), while Chip Original Co. saw an increase of over 5% [3][4] - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, with companies like SMIC reporting stable operations and growth in revenue and net profit for Q4 of fiscal 2025 [8] Group 3 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with AI-related segments like computing chips and storage chips seeing strong demand, while non-AI segments are recovering more slowly [6][8] - The ChiNext 50 index has a high exposure to the semiconductor industry, with a weight of 68.3%, capturing significant opportunities in AI chip innovation [9] - The R&D expenditure of the ChiNext 50 index constituents reached 53.23 billion yuan, accounting for 7.93% of revenue, significantly higher than the averages for the Growth Enterprise Market and Main Board [12]

按照一般规律，黄金下跌时，美元往往会上涨，两者呈现负相关。 但昨晚的行情打破了这一规律。 美元指数在2月25日晚间低开低走，盘中虽然一度挣扎翻 红，上涨了0.16%，但收盘时还是被砸了下去。 2026年2月25日到26日，全球金融市场的投资者们目睹了罕见的一幕：传统意义上的"避险双雄"——黄金和美元，竟然肩并肩一起"跳水"了。 而另一边，代表风险偏好的股市却一片欢腾，尤其是半导体和存储芯片板块，涨得让人目瞪口呆。 这可不是简单的板块轮动，而是市场底层逻辑正在发生 一场静悄悄的革命。 | 国际黄金价格在连续上涨四个交易日后，出现了明显的回调。 | | --- | | 上一个交易日，金价高开低走，尾盘跳水下挫了1.25%。 | | 到了2月25日晚间，行情变得更加戏剧化。 | | 金价低开高走，上半场表现强劲，盘中一度上涨1.38%，大部分时间都震荡在上涨1.00%左右。 | | 然而，熟悉的剧本再次上演，尾盘又出现了跳水走势。 | | 这次跳水非常凌厉，金价从上涨1.12%的位置急速下挫，最终涨幅收窄至仅0.14%，不过好在没有翻绿。 | | 收盘时，国际黄金价格定格在5183美元/盎司附近。 | | 从更高的 ...

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 26 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 今日热点 风险提示：房地产政策波动，房地产市场复苏不及预期，部分房企经营风 险。 研报发布日期：2026-02-25 研究员 刘璐 SAC:S0570519070001 SFC:BRD825 固定收益：AI 叙事的转变 ——基本面观察 2 月第 2 期 2026 年以来，全球 AI 叙事正在经历一次重要的边际变化，我们至少看到了 三层叙事的转变。 第一层叙事：对 Scaling Law 开始出现一些分歧。 过去几年 AI 投资的核心引擎来自于 Scaling Law 的经验规律：模型越大、数 据越多、算力越强，性能越好。但这条规律正在出现一些裂痕。 风险提示：AI 开支不及预期，地缘政治风险。 研报发布日期：2026-02-25 研究员 张继强 SAC:S0570518110002 SFC:AMB145 吴靖 SAC:S0570523070006 房地产 ...