国泰海通晨报 2025 年 12 月 03 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【宏观研究】：展望 2026 年，耐用品补贴乘数存在递减可能，物价修复的关键仍取决于财政有 效投入，尤其是向消费与服务领域的倾斜。中性情境下，CPI 和 PPI 中枢有望温和上移。 2、【批零社服研究】峨眉山 A：公司凭借金顶索道改造和乐山机场建设带来的交通优势，将有效 提升景区承载力和游客体验，推动客流增长和盈利修复，具备较大市场潜力。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 2、"底色"的方向：需财政有效支出打通正向循环。剔除短期脉冲，价格底色取决于内生需求。 在房地产存量调整持续的背景下，单纯的消费补贴仅能治标。借鉴日本 1995 年经验：核心 CPI 回升的 关键在于财政支出规模和结构的质变——从 1994 年低乘数的"减税"（被储蓄吸收），转向 1995 年 高比例的"政府直接购买与投资"，直接创造有效需求。因此 2026 年要夯实价格回升基础，不能仅靠 财政规模的"惯性延续"，或可以等待更大力度、结构更有效的政府投入落地，尤其是增加向服务业 的补贴倾斜。 展望 2026 ...

特朗普概念股 American Bitcoin大跌。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业平均 | 47460.31 | 170.98 | 0.36% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 23505.46 | 229.54 | 0.99% | | SPX | 标普500 | 6846.13 | 33.50 | 0.49% | 当地时间12月2日， 三大指数小幅高开，截至发稿，道指涨0.36%，纳指涨0.99%，标普500指数涨0.49%。 个股方面，科技股普遍上涨，截至发稿，七巨头全线上涨，英伟达涨超2%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | NVDA | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 184.863 | 4.943 | 2.75% | | TSLA | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 434.940 | 4.800 | 1.12% | | MSFT | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 489.760 | 3.020 ...

新华财经上海12月2日电（林郑宏）因互联网科技公司Meta可能在其数据中心使用谷歌张量处理单元（TPU）取代部分英伟达产品，A股TPU概念股近期成 为市场关注焦点。 概念股龙头赛微电子（300456.SZ）也因此吸引大量市场资金追捧，自11月19日至12月2日收盘的短短两周，股价累计涨超118%。 | ← | 赛微电子 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 300456 | | | | | 58.43 | 加 | 59.77 开 | | 50 | | | 低 | 49.40 昨收 | | 5 | | +7.74 +15.27% | 额 | 99.74亿 量(手) 180.6 | | | | 2025-12-02 | 换手率 30.23% | | 量比 | | | 分时 | 五日 日K | 周Ｋ | 月K | 1 | | 59.77 | 不复权 _ MA5:49.64 MA10:41.24 MA20:34.27 | | | | | 50.32 | | | | | | 40.86 | | | | | 赛微电子近期股价走势图（来源：新华财经） 制造实力拔群 有望深度 ...

股 票 A 股周五集体上涨，市场成交继续 缩量；港股走势分化，市场观望情 绪较浓；欧洲股市收高，降息交易 继续推动上行；美股上涨，科技股 继续推动大市上涨。 外 汇 / 商 品 交易员观望 OPEC+周末会议及地 缘政治因素的影响，上周五国际油 价微跌；降息交易持续，纽约期金 上涨超 1%。 环球市场动态 固 定 收 益 内 地 增 量 政 策 对 内 需 提 振 有 待 显 现 感恩节 Black Friday 期间，市场交 易量低迷。芝商所技术故障约十小 时，美债交易延迟，并小幅走低。 本周美联储进入静默期。市场静待 通胀数据发布。亚洲债市交投清淡， 利差轻微收窄。 资料来源：相关公司、中信证券 风险等级：由低至高分 1 至 5 级 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 12 月 1 日 ▪ 2025 年 11 月中国制造业 PMI 为 49.2，较上月回升 0.2；中国非制造业 PMI 为 49.5，较上月回落 0.6。11 月 制造业 PMI 比过去 5 年均值低 1 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 当全球⽬光聚焦于⾃动驾驶出租⻋（Robotaxi）的商业化落地或 "星舰"（Starship）的⽕星探 测任务时，埃隆·⻢斯克正于美国得克萨斯州秘密构建全栈半导体⽣态系统。该⽣态覆盖印制电路 板（PCB）⽣产、先进封装到晶圆制造等核⼼环节，将全⾯满⾜特斯拉（TSLA-US）⼈⼯智能 （AI）系统、⾃动驾驶技术及 SpaceX 星链（Starlink）项⽬的芯⽚需求，向全球芯⽚供应链的 现有格局发起挑战。 分析指出，此次⻢斯克不再满⾜于依赖外部采购芯⽚，⽽是决⼼从零起步，打造涵盖芯⽚设计、封 装测试到晶圆制造的 "全栈半导体制造⽣态系统"。 ⻢斯克多年来始终秉持⼀个核⼼观点："决定特斯拉未来的，不是汽⻋本⾝，⽽是芯⽚。" 如 今，他正将这⼀理念转化为实际⾏动。 ⾏业分析认为，⾯对全球芯⽚供应链短缺，以及台积电、三星等代⼯巨头的产能瓶颈，⻢斯克已被 "逼⾄墙⻆"，最终决定不再被动等待。 据悉，其秘密计划包含三⼤核⼼环节：从基础的印制电路板（PCB）⽣产，到尖端的先进封装技术 研发，最终⽬标是⾃建晶圆⼚。这场豪赌的核⼼赌注，是未来在 AI、机器⼈及卫星⽹络领域核⼼ 算 ...

郭明錤称，据其调查，英特尔成为苹果先进制程供应商的可能性"近期显著提高"；苹果计划，最早2027年第二至第三季度采用英特 尔18A先进制程生产其最低端M系列处理器，这些芯片主要用于MacBook Air和iPad Pro；此消息意味着，英特尔代工业务的最 坏时期可能即将结束，其14A制程及后续节点可能获得苹果等一线客户的更多订单。 对于英特尔而言，拿下苹果这一顶级客户的先进制程订单，其意义远超直接营收和利润贡献。郭明錤指出，尽管未来几年英特尔 仍无法与台积电正面竞争，但这表明其代工业务"最艰难的时期可能即将过去"。对苹果而言，此举既展现对特朗普政府"美国制 造"政策的支持，也满足供应链多元化管理需求。 此前有关英特尔可能成为苹果代工商的市场传闻长期存在，但可见度一直较低。据今年9月的报道，英特尔在寻求苹果的投资，作 为其复兴计划的一部分。如今郭明錤的预测为这一合作提供了最具体的时间表和技术细节。 英特尔与苹果合作取得实质进展 郭明錤在周五的帖文中详细披露了双方合作的最新进展。他表示，苹果此前已与英特尔签署保密协议（NDA），并获得了先进制 程18AP PDK 0.9.1GA版本。目前，关键的模拟和研究项目（如 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a divergence between traditional heavyweight stocks supporting the index and technology growth stocks facing pressure, reflecting a complex market environment influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies and the slowing economic recovery in mainland China [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose slightly by 0.07% to close at 17,825.43 points, primarily driven by the financial and energy sectors, with financial stocks contributing nearly 60% of the index's gains [1]. - HSBC Holdings saw a 1.2% increase due to better-than-expected quarterly results, while PetroChina and CNOOC also posted gains of 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively [1]. - In contrast, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.36% to 3,852.19 points, indicating a collective downturn in technology stocks, with Tencent, SMIC, and Alibaba all experiencing declines [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The divergence in stock performance reflects a layered market risk appetite, with investors prioritizing defensive positions in low-valuation, high-dividend sectors like financials and energy [2]. - There has been a net inflow of 23 billion HKD into the financial sector through the Stock Connect program in November, while the technology sector saw a net outflow of 12 billion HKD [2]. Group 3: Key Variables Influencing Future Trends - The future trajectory of the Hong Kong stock market hinges on three critical variables: the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the strength of the economic recovery in mainland China, and the performance of the technology sector [3][4]. - Market expectations suggest that if the Fed signals a rate cut in December, the Hang Seng Tech Index could rebound by 10%-15% [3]. - The performance of the mainland economy, particularly manufacturing PMI data, will directly impact core sectors like real estate and consumption [3]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite the current market volatility, there is a consensus among institutions that the Hang Seng Index is undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5, indicating a high margin of safety [5]. - Three main investment themes have emerged: defensive sectors like banking and energy, cyclical sectors benefiting from economic recovery, and leading companies in emerging technology fields such as AI and cloud computing [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company Demingli has announced a fundraising plan of up to 3.2 billion yuan, coinciding with a significant increase in its stock price, which has tripled in two months due to the booming storage chip market [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Fundraising - Demingli's stock price surged from under 100 yuan on September 11 to 306 yuan on November 13, marking a threefold increase in two months [2]. - The company plans to raise funds through a private placement of no more than 68.07 million shares, with proceeds allocated for SSD and DRAM expansion projects, as well as for enhancing its storage management and R&D headquarters [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The global storage market has shown a cyclical pattern, with a notable recovery in demand since Q3 2025, driven by increased needs from data centers and AI applications [3]. - NAND Flash prices rose by 41.48% from September 30 to November 4, while DRAM prices increased by 46.22% in the same period, indicating a significant market upturn [3]. Group 3: Company Strategy and Risks - Demingli has indicated plans to expand production in response to the growing demand for storage solutions, particularly in enterprise-level storage [5]. - Despite the positive outlook, the company acknowledges the cyclical nature of the storage market and the potential risks associated with market price fluctuations and inventory valuation [5][6]. - The company's inventory value has increased significantly, raising concerns about potential write-downs if market prices decline [6]. Group 4: Institutional Interest - There has been active institutional trading in Demingli's stock, with notable transactions occurring at a discount of around 10% since November 19 [6]. - Institutions have been involved in significant trades, indicating strong interest from professional investors [6].

谷歌传统上将客户使用的张量处理单元（TPU）用于自己的数据中心，然后出租给客户。但据Th e Information周一晚间报道，谷歌现在开始向客户出售TPU，供其在自己的数据中心使用。 报道指出，Meta Platforms 正在考虑从 2027 年开始在其数据中心购买价值数十亿美元的谷歌 T PU，同时最早从 2026 年就开始从谷歌云租用 TPU 容量。Meta 一直以来主要依靠英伟达图形处 理器 (GPU) 来满足其人工智能需求。 如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 对于谷歌和博通（它们参与了Tensor AI芯片的设计）来说，这可能是一个巨大的新市场。但它 也可能对英伟达和AMD构成重大竞争，威胁到它们巨大的销售和定价权。 据报道，谷歌母公司Alphabet (正与Meta Platforms 等公司洽谈，希望它们能使用谷歌的Tensor AI芯片，此举将加剧其与英伟达的竞争。谷歌及其AI芯片合作伙伴博通股价尾盘上涨，而英伟达 和AMD股价则下跌。 受The Information报道的影响，谷歌股价在盘后交易中上涨超过2%，博通股价上涨近2%，延续 了常规交易时段的强劲涨势。 周一，博通股价 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened positively with major indices rising, including the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.71%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.62%, and the ChiNext Index up by over 2% [2][3] - Over 4,700 stocks in the market experienced gains, indicating a broad-based rally [2] Sector Performance - The communication sector saw significant gains, particularly in optical module, optical communication, and optical chip stocks, with the optical module index rising over 8% [4][9] - Notable individual stock performances included Dekeli reaching a 20% limit up, and Guangku Technology and Changxin Bochuang both rising over 15% [11][12] Key Stocks - Zhongji Xuchuang achieved a trading volume exceeding 10 billion CNY, leading the A-share market [11] - Longpan Technology's stock surged to a limit up of 18.06 CNY, following a major contract announcement worth over 450 billion CNY [20][22] AI and Technology Trends - The AI application sector is gaining momentum, driven by increased downloads of Alibaba's Qianwen application, with analysts suggesting that the rise in Chinese stocks led by AI is not a bubble [18] - Nvidia's supply chain is also experiencing growth, with TSMC planning to build additional 2nm fabs to meet the increasing demand for AI chips [14] Media and Entertainment - The media sector continued its upward trend, with AI applications and online gaming stocks leading the gains [16] - Notable performers included Huanrui Century and Xinhua Dou, both achieving significant price increases [17] Conclusion - The overall market sentiment is bullish, with strong performances across various sectors, particularly in technology and media, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [2][4][16]