| --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 66 | | | 煤炭:再现红利吸引力 国君煤炭:黄涛 煤炭今年领先大多数行业，提前检验压力测试期下的行 | | 2024 / 9/ 23 基本面再超预期, 或迎拐点。 研究所 研究运营组制作 更多国君研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|-------|-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 姓名 | 区域 | 国泰君安机构销售通讯录 \n职务 | 邮箱 | | 部小双 | 上海 | 研究销售经理 | zouxiaoshuang026001@gtjas.com | | 王亚明 | 上海 | 研究销售经理 | wangyaming@gtjas.com | | 曾跌玮 | 上海 | 研究销售经理 | zengyiwei@g ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Aosaikang (002755) with a rating of "Buy" [2][11]. Core Views - The company is transitioning towards innovation, with the potential for significant growth in its pipeline, particularly with ASKB589 leading the way in gastric cancer treatment [2][11]. - The negative impact of centralized procurement is gradually dissipating, and the company has reached a turning point in its performance, with a return to positive revenue growth in 2024H1 [8][27]. - The company has a robust pipeline of innovative drugs and is focusing on differentiated products to drive future growth [8][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview - Aosaikang has a strong foundation in generic drugs and is now entering a phase of innovation with multiple products expected to reach commercialization soon [11][23]. 2. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue growth from 1.65 billion in 2024 to 2.47 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to turn positive in 2024 [11][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.12, 0.22, and 0.31 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [11][12]. 3. Product Pipeline - ASKB589, a Claudin 18.2 monoclonal antibody, is in Phase III clinical trials and is expected to lead the market in gastric cancer treatment [11][12]. - ASK120067, a third-generation EGFR-TKI, is nearing approval and is positioned to compete in a significant market [11][12]. - ASKC109, a new oral iron supplement, is in Phase III trials and is expected to address the limitations of existing treatments [11][12]. 4. Market Dynamics - The company is adjusting its product mix in response to the pressures of centralized procurement, with a notable shift from digestive drugs to oncology and chronic disease treatments [8][27]. - The competitive landscape for PPI drugs is changing, with new products like right lansoprazole entering the market [79][80]. 5. Research and Development - Aosaikang has established a strong R&D platform focusing on small molecule targeted therapies and innovative biological drugs, with significant investments in new drug development [23][72]. - The company is leveraging its proprietary technology platforms to enhance the development of cytokine-based therapies [72][73].

股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] 肖群稀(分析师) 张越(分析师) 刘麒硕(研究助理) 0755-23976830 0755-23976385 0755-23976666 xiaoqunxi027589@gtjas.com zhangyue025639@gtjas.com liuqishuo028693@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880522120001 S0880522090004 S0880123070153 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.23 8 月工程机械出口保持增长，美国降息影响出口链 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 本报告导读： 上周（2024/9/18-2024/9/20）机械设备指数上涨 0.74%，涨幅前五的板块是：制冷空 调设备+2.97%/工程机械整机+2.37%/仪器仪表+1.62%/楼宇设备+1.35%/能源及重 型设备+0.98%。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 工程机械：出口继续保持增长。中国工程机械协会数据 ...

股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] 肖群稀(分析师) 张越(分析师) 刘麒硕(研究助理) 0755-23976830 0755-23976385 0755-23976666 xiaoqunxi027589@gtjas.com zhangyue025639@gtjas.com liuqishuo028693@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880522120001 S0880522090004 S0880123070153 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.23 8 月工程机械出口保持增长，美国降息影响出口链 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 本报告导读： 上周（2024/9/18-2024/9/20）机械设备指数上涨 0.74%，涨幅前五的板块是：制冷空 调设备+2.97%/工程机械整机+2.37%/仪器仪表+1.62%/楼宇设备+1.35%/能源及重 型设备+0.98%。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 工程机械：出口继续保持增长。中国工程机械协会数据 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Black-Litterman (BL) Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The BL model is an improvement over the traditional Mean-Variance Optimization (MVO) model. It integrates subjective views with quantitative models using Bayesian theory to optimize asset allocation weights. This approach addresses MVO's sensitivity to expected returns and provides a more robust solution for asset allocation[12]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model starts with a prior distribution of expected returns based on market equilibrium. 2. Subjective views on asset returns are incorporated using Bayesian updating. 3. The posterior distribution is calculated, combining the prior and subjective views. 4. The final asset weights are derived by solving the optimization problem based on the posterior distribution[12][13]. - **Model Evaluation**: The BL model effectively reduces sensitivity to expected returns and offers higher fault tolerance compared to purely subjective investment strategies, making it a widely used and efficient asset allocation tool[12]. 2. Model Name: Risk Parity Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Risk Parity model aims to equalize the risk contribution of each asset (or factor) in the portfolio. It is an improvement over the traditional MVO model and focuses on diversifying risk rather than capital allocation[17]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select appropriate underlying assets. 2. Calculate each asset's risk contribution to the portfolio based on expected volatility and correlations. 3. Optimize the portfolio by minimizing the deviation between actual and target risk contributions, resulting in final asset weights[18]. - **Model Evaluation**: The Risk Parity model provides a balanced risk allocation across assets, making it suitable for achieving stable returns across economic cycles[17]. 3. Model Name: Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model bridges macroeconomic research and asset allocation by constructing a framework based on six macroeconomic risks: growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity. It translates macroeconomic views into actionable asset allocation strategies[21]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Construct high-frequency macro factors using the Factor Mimicking Portfolio method. 2. Calculate factor exposures for each asset at the end of each month. 3. Determine baseline factor exposures using a risk parity portfolio as the benchmark. 4. Adjust factor exposures based on subjective macroeconomic views and solve for the next month's asset weights[22][23]. - **Model Evaluation**: This model allows for the integration of subjective macroeconomic views into asset allocation, providing a flexible and systematic approach to reflect macroeconomic expectations[21]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Black-Litterman (BL) Model - **Domestic Asset BL Model 1**: Weekly return 0.47%, September return 1.1%, YTD return 6.48%, annualized volatility 1.7%, maximum drawdown 0.78%[14][16]. - **Domestic Asset BL Model 2**: Weekly return 0.28%, September return 0.79%, YTD return 5.7%, annualized volatility 1.47%, maximum drawdown 0.65%[14][16]. - **Global Asset BL Model 1**: Weekly return 0.29%, September return 1.05%, YTD return 6.93%, annualized volatility 1.96%, maximum drawdown 0.95%[14][16]. - **Global Asset BL Model 2**: Weekly return 0.32%, September return 0.84%, YTD return 5.82%, annualized volatility 1.49%, maximum drawdown 0.64%[14][16]. 2. Risk Parity Model - **Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model**: Weekly return 0.24%, September return 0.32%, YTD return 4.71%, annualized volatility 1.15%, maximum drawdown 0.37%[20][26]. - **Global Asset Risk Parity Model**: Weekly return 0.2%, September return 0.13%, YTD return 5.11%, annualized volatility 1.03%, maximum drawdown 0.31%[20][26]. 3. Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model - **Macro Factor-Based Model**: Weekly return 0.25%, September return 0.32%, YTD return 4.14%, annualized volatility 1.24%, maximum drawdown 0.45%[25][26].

股 票 研 究 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|---------------------|---------------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 鲍雁辛 ( 分析师 ) | 花健祎 ( 分析师 ) | 巫恺洋 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 0755-23976830 | 0755-23976858 | 0755-23976666 | | | baoyanxin@gtjas.com | huajianyi@gtjas.com | wukaiyang028675@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513070005 | S0880521010001 | S0880123070145 | 本报告导读： Q3 建材基本面在基数走弱的背景下降幅有所企稳，板块在中报落地后基本面走弱的 预期逐步消化，或重回预期因素更重于现实因素的阶段。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 水泥 ...

股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) 樊夏俐(分析师) 曲世强(研究助理) 021-38031654 021-38676666 021-38031025 caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com fanxiali@gtjas.com qushiqiang028674@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880521050002 S0880523090006 S0880123070132 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 高频数据好转，短期有望持续回暖 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.23 ——2024 年 W38 周报 本报告导读： 超预期补贴集中发力 24Q4 家电零售，内销预计即将迎来向上拐点。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 行情回顾：2024 年第 38 周，申万家电指数涨跌幅为+4.3%，好于沪 深 300 指数涨跌幅（+0.47%），主要原因是在各地方政府以旧换新 政策细则陆续出台后，拉动家电内销边际回暖，8 月份 ...

股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] 訾猛(分析师) 闫清徽(分析师) 陈力宇(分析师) 021-38676442 021-38031651 021-38677618 zimeng@gtjas.com yanqinghui@gtjas.com chenliyu@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880513120002 S0880522120004 S0880522090005 转折期的消费路径选择 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.22 [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读： 我们认为消费进入转折时代，包括食品饮料在内的消费品公司 ROE 将从净利率和 资产周转率驱动向财务杠杆和运营效率驱动转变。 投资要点： 行 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料《转折期的消费路径选择》2024.09.22 食品饮料《白酒中秋平淡，啤酒环比改善》 2024.09.17 食品饮料《金秋下的白酒：弱改善、强分化，份额 优先》2024.09.12 食品饮料《旺季重 ...

股 票 研 究 水利运河投资有望提速，推荐中国能建、中国交建等 [Table_Industry] 建筑工程业 [Table_Invest] ——建筑行业第 366 期周报 评级： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.22 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|---------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 韩其成 ( 分析师 ) | 郭浩然 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | | | | 021-38676162 | 010-83939793 | | | | | | | | | hanqicheng8@gtjas.com | guohaoran025968@gtjas.com | | | | | | | | 登 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.22 zhulijiang@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523060002 行 业 事 件 快 评 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 华为计算加速迭代，相关厂商持续受益 [Table_Industry] 计算机 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [table_Authors] 朱丽江(分析师) 010-83939785 本报告导读： 华为通过架构创新，向合作伙伴提供可持续的算力解决方案，开源欧拉与开源高斯 持续壮大，成为中国市场核心参与者，鸿蒙生态快速成长，有望实现超预期发展。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：华为计算生态快速发展，相关厂商有望受益，推荐标的 中国软件国际、软通动力、拓维信息，受益标的神州数码、润和软 件、海量数据、中国软件、诚迈科技、中国长城、高新发展。 华为通过架构创新，向合作伙伴提供可持续的算力解决方案。2024 年 9 月 19 日至 21 日，华为全联接大会在上海召开，展示了华 ...