| | 国泰海通证券 | | --- | --- | | 1 | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2025-06-20 09:00——2025-06-23 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观周报：《地缘风险上升，美联储继续观望》2025-06-22 | 3 | |  | 宏观周报：《消费边际改善》2025-06-22 | 3 | |  | 宏观专题：《中央财政发力：扩内需，保民生》2025-06-21 | 4 | |  | 宏观专题：《存款从"回家"到"再搬家"》2025-06-20 | 4 | |  | 宏观专题：《稳定币：六大"误区"——全球货币变局研究八》2025-06-20 | 5 | |  | 策略观察：《外资和 逆势流入中国资产》2025-06-22 ETF | 6 | |  | 策略专题报告：《数字货币：打开跨境结算与融资新路径》2025-06-22 | 7 | |  | 策略周报：《声暂歇处，趋势未央》2025-06-22 | 8 | |  | 海外策略研究：《南向资金持续增配 ...

Group 1: Export Trends - Recent surge in export orders for the US line has led to increased shipping volume and prices[1] - Future export outlook will depend on the subsequent order intake by export enterprises[1] - Current environment of tariff friction and trade restructuring is influencing export dynamics[1] Group 2: Research Activities - Conducted research on home appliance export enterprises such as Xinbao Co. on June 18[2] - Engaged in discussions with financial authorities and various export representatives in Shunde[2] - Planned investigations into cross-border e-commerce export enterprises and logistics experts in Shenzhen from June 19-20[2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the financial industry [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the implications of the "Opinions on Deepening Reform and Innovation in the Shenzhen Comprehensive Reform Pilot" which aims to enhance financial services for the real economy in the Greater Bay Area through a combination of regional pilot programs, financial deregulation, and mechanism innovation [2][4] - Leading brokerage firms with strong cross-border service capabilities and insurance companies actively investing in the Greater Bay Area are expected to benefit significantly from these reforms [2][4] Summary by Sections Policy Initiatives - The report outlines several key measures to support financial empowerment in the Greater Bay Area, including: 1. Establishing incentive mechanisms for financial services to the real economy 2. Developing a framework for credit and securities related to technology enterprises 3. Promoting green finance reforms 4. Allowing companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to also list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [4] Opportunities for Brokerage Firms - The policy allows for the return of companies listed in Hong Kong to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, creating structural opportunities for brokerage firms in underwriting and advisory services [4] - Leading brokerages can leverage resources from both Hong Kong and Shenzhen to offer integrated services for IPOs and secondary listings [4] Benefits for Insurance Companies - The report highlights that insurance companies with a focus on the Greater Bay Area and venture capital investments are likely to see significant benefits [4] - Insurance funds, due to their long-term and stable nature, can invest in technology and venture capital funds, thus improving their investment returns [4] Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - CITIC Securities A - CICC H - Ping An A - New China Life A - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing [4][5]

Macro Economic Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, while the Federal Reserve remains cautious about rate cuts[4] - In the U.S., non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs in May, indicating a moderate slowdown in the labor market, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.2%[11] - Eurozone inflation dropped below 2% year-on-year in May, signaling a cooling economy[5] Market Performance - Major global stock indices saw gains: Hang Seng Index up 2.2%, S&P 500 up 1.5%, and Shanghai Composite Index up 1.1%[4] - Commodity prices increased significantly, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 4.3% and the S&P-GSCI commodity index up 4.1%[4] Investment Trends - Chinese assets are experiencing active trading, with financing funds beginning to flow back into the market[12] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased from 1.09 trillion to 1.21 trillion RMB, indicating heightened market activity[13] Sector Analysis - The technology sector in Hong Kong is outperforming, with the Hang Seng Index up 19% year-to-date, surpassing the A-share market by 21 percentage points[22] - Investment in the computer sector is increasing, with net inflows of 17.2 billion RMB in financing[15] Risk Factors - U.S. tariff policies remain uncertain, potentially destabilizing global economic expectations[5] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions could impact market sentiment and economic recovery[25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the parallel growth of new consumption and value, highlighting seasonal opportunities and valuation improvements. It notes that while the liquor sector is currently affected by policy changes, its long-term absolute value remains significant. The report also points out that the peak season for mass-market beer and beverages is approaching, with strong growth potential for single products and new channels [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing holdings in the liquor sector, recommending brands such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Kweichow Moutai, and others. It also highlights strong growth potential in snacks and food additives, recommending companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjinpuzi. For beverages, it suggests increasing holdings in brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Chengde Lululemon. In the beer sector, it recommends Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer, while for condiments and dairy products, it suggests companies like Haitian Flavoring and Yili Group [5][8] Liquor Sector - The report discusses the ongoing transformation of liquor product attributes, driven by recent policy changes that emphasize frugality. It predicts that leading liquor companies will continue to explore new consumption scenarios and potential growth areas, enhancing their competitive advantages [9][10] Beer and Beverage Sector - The report notes that the beer and beverage sectors are entering a peak season, with expectations of improved sales and profitability. It highlights the importance of new channels and product innovations in driving growth, with specific brands expected to perform well [11][12][13] Snack Sector - The report indicates that the snack sector is expected to grow even during off-peak seasons, driven by category and channel expansion. Companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjinpuzi are highlighted for their strong supply chain advantages and innovative product offerings [14] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report includes a detailed profit forecast and valuation table for key companies in the sector, projecting growth rates and earnings per share for various brands, indicating a generally positive outlook for the industry [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][4] Core Insights - The report highlights a long-term logic for a "super cycle" in the Chinese aviation industry, driven by sustained demand and a low growth supply environment [2][4] - The demand for air travel is expected to continue its steady growth due to the ongoing aviation population dividend, while supply is entering a low growth phase [2][4] - The report anticipates a strategic positioning at low levels, recommending an increase in holdings in the aviation sector [2][4] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is primarily influenced by internal factors, with external factors also playing a role, leading to a low growth phase in supply [4] - Demand is expected to remain robust, supported by the ongoing aviation population dividend, with a gradual recovery in supply and demand anticipated from 2023 to 2024 [4] Pricing and Profitability - The report notes that ticket prices have largely become market-driven during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with expectations for a rise in profitability as demand continues to grow [4] - It is projected that from 2025 to 2026, ticket prices will increase while oil prices decrease, accelerating the recovery of profitability for airlines [4] Strategic Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of a long-term perspective in aviation, suggesting that airlines should be prioritized for investment, particularly those with high-quality networks [4] - Specific airlines recommended for increased holdings include China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [4][171]

Group 1: Fusion-Fission Hybrid Reactor Overview - Fission reaction involves heavy atomic nuclei splitting into lighter nuclei, releasing energy and neutrons, which can trigger a chain reaction[2] - Fusion reaction combines light atomic nuclei under high temperature and pressure to form heavier nuclei, representing the core mechanism of controlled nuclear fusion[2] - The Z-pinch driven fusion-fission hybrid reactor (Z-FFR) utilizes D-T fusion to produce high-energy neutrons that drive fission in non-fissile materials like uranium-238 or thorium[2] Group 2: Development and Investment - The total investment for the Spark High-Temperature Superconducting Fusion-Fission Hybrid Experimental Reactor is approximately 20 billion RMB, aiming to establish the world's first hybrid power plant by 2030[2] - The Xianjue Energy project, led by Guoguang Electric and the Tianfu Innovation Energy Research Institute, focuses on engineering applications of the Z-pinch hybrid reactor, targeting commercialization by 2040[2] Group 3: Key Technologies and Suppliers - The core technologies of the Z-pinch hybrid reactor include pulsed high-current technology and tritium breeding blanket technology[2] - Wangzi New Materials' subsidiary, Ningbo Xinrong, produces special capacitors applicable to the hybrid reactor's high-power pulsed power systems[2] - Guoguang Electric is a key supplier in the tritium factory sector, positioning itself as a leading enterprise for the Z-pinch hybrid reactor[2] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unfavorable industrial policies and challenges in achieving technological breakthroughs and cost reductions[2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" which indicates performance is expected to be in line with the CSI 300 Index [87]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant trend of "increasing revenue but decreasing profit" among the top 100 property management companies since 2022 [12]. - The report notes that the average revenue from non-owner value-added services has been declining since 2021, with some leading listed companies experiencing a drop of over 50% [20]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing challenges in the property management sector, including a high proportion of revenue coming from related parties, which remains above 45% [16]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The report presents data showing that several leading property management companies have experienced significant stock price declines from 2022 to 2024, with cumulative declines reaching as high as 86% for some firms [9]. - The Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index has been on a downward trend since the second half of 2021 [8]. Section 2: Financial Metrics - The report indicates that the average gross margin and net margin for the top property management companies are continuing to decline, with basic property services having much lower margins compared to value-added services [43]. - It also highlights that the cash flow situation for key listed companies is under pressure due to ongoing asset impairment provisions [29]. Section 3: Strategic Adjustments - Many companies are actively exiting low-profit projects to reallocate resources to more profitable contracts, with several firms terminating management of millions of square meters of area in the first half of the year [34]. - The report outlines strategic shifts in community value-added services, with some companies focusing on high-frequency daily needs and others withdrawing from less profitable business models [48]. Section 4: Market Trends - The report notes that the average property service fee in 20 core first- and second-tier cities is 2.72 RMB per square meter per month, reflecting the pricing dynamics in the market [26]. - It also discusses the increasing use of technology and AI in property management, with companies adopting smart devices for various operational tasks [63][67].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on growth opportunities within the industry, particularly highlighting structural differentiation in the market [3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the liquor industry, particularly the baijiu segment, is currently in a bottoming phase, with a prolonged adjustment cycle compared to previous years. The market is expected to recover as policy expectations improve, leading to a potential valuation recovery in the baijiu sector [3][20]. - The beer and beverage sectors are showing signs of recovery, with beer entering its peak season and companies like Yanjing Brewery and Qingdao Beer demonstrating strong performance. The beverage sector is still in a phase of releasing individual product potential, with companies like Dongpeng showing stable growth [4]. - The report emphasizes the structural growth in consumer goods, particularly in the snack food sector, where there are clear structural benefits. The report also notes improvements in the competitive landscape for seasoning and dairy products [5]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Industry - The baijiu industry is currently experiencing a U-shaped adjustment, with demand and expectations adjusting less severely than in previous cycles. The adjustment period is longer, and the market has largely priced in pessimistic expectations [3][20]. - The high-end baijiu segment shows resilience, while the mid-tier and lower-tier segments face increased competition. The report anticipates that as consumer spending power recovers, the demand for premium baijiu may increase [26]. Beer & Beverage Sector - The beer sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with 2024 projected to achieve historical highs in profit margins. The industry has been transitioning towards premiumization since 2017, which has driven growth in unit prices [37][40]. - The beverage sector is characterized by strong individual product performance, with companies like Dongpeng leading the way. The report notes that the beverage market is less affected by economic cycles compared to other segments [4][40]. Consumer Goods - The report highlights a continued trend of structural growth in the consumer goods sector, particularly in snack foods, where there are significant structural benefits. The seasoning and dairy product segments are also showing signs of marginal improvement [5]. - The report suggests that the overall consumer goods market is adapting to new consumption trends, with a preference for high-growth products [5].

Market Growth - The global stablecoin market value surged from $20 billion in 2020 to $250 billion by May 2025, marking an impressive 11-fold increase over five years[3] - Over 90% of Bitcoin transactions on cryptocurrency exchanges are settled through USDT/USDC, establishing them as the de facto "crypto dollar standard"[3] - In emerging markets like Argentina, where inflation exceeds 100%, stablecoins account for 72% of cryptocurrency trading volume, serving as a "digital safe-haven asset" for the populace[3] Regulatory Developments - The U.S. Congress is advancing two key stablecoin regulatory bills: the GENIUS Act and the STABLE Act, which impose strict asset reserve requirements on stablecoin issuers[3] - The regulatory framework mandates that stablecoin reserves consist primarily of high-quality liquid assets, effectively limiting high-risk investments and making U.S. Treasury securities the primary compliant option[3] - As of May 2025, Tether's U.S. Treasury exposure exceeds $120 billion, representing 78.1% of its total reserves, while Circle's USDC reserves are composed of at least 99.5% U.S. government bonds[3] Future Projections - The stablecoin market is projected to reach between $1.6 trillion and $3.7 trillion by 2030, with an estimated $1.3 trillion to $3 trillion in new short-term U.S. Treasury securities to be absorbed in the medium term[3] - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to benefit significantly from the regulatory push towards stablecoin reserves being "Treasury-centric," as stablecoin issuers seek to balance safety, yield, and liquidity[3] Strategic Implications - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that stablecoins will be utilized to maintain the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, reflecting a strategic intent to extend U.S. dollar hegemony in the digital age[3] - The regulatory approach in the U.S. contrasts with the EU's MiCA framework, which focuses on stability and consumer protection, highlighting a more aggressive U.S. strategy to leverage stablecoins as a foundational infrastructure for dollar dominance[3]