股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.29 模型能力持续进化，AI Agent 商业化加速 [Table_Industry] 海外科技 ——海外科技行业 2025 年第 12 期 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [table_Authors] 秦和平(分析师) 0755-23976666 本报告导读： 中美模型竞相亮相，大模型性能加速进化；Manus 公布收费方案；OpenAI 推出基 于 GPT-4o 模型的图像生成功能，实现向全模态智能体跨越。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 海外科技《GTC 继续强调推理长期逻辑，腾讯加 码 AI 投入》2025.03.23 海外科技《GTC2025，迈向 Agentic AI 新时代》 2025.03.19 海外科技《晶圆代工格局或生变，轻量级 Gemma3 模型助力端侧 AI 落地》2025.03.15 海外科技《Manus 加速 AI Agent 落地，RISC-V 发展迎机遇》2025.03.09 海外科技《DeepSeek 开源降本增效，小米 SU7Ultra 瞩目亮相》2025.03.02 票 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HKD 66.16 based on a 12x PE for FY2025 [7]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's performance remains resilient, driven by AI-enabled content and business ecosystem, with continuous user growth and robust online marketing services [3][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 353.8 billion in Q4 FY2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, with a gross margin of 54.0% [7][12]. - Daily Active Users (DAU) and Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 401 million and 736 million respectively, with DAU and MAU growth of 4.8% and 5.0% year-on-year [7][16]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY2024 is projected at CNY 126.9 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be CNY 17.7 billion, reflecting a 72% increase [6][7]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q4 FY2024 was 13.3%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.6 percentage points [7][12]. - E-commerce GMV reached CNY 462.1 billion in Q4, showing a year-on-year growth of 14.4%, with short video e-commerce GMV growth exceeding 50% [7][23]. Business Performance - Online marketing services revenue grew by 13.3% year-on-year to CNY 206.2 billion, driven by a significant increase in eCPM [7][22]. - The e-commerce monthly active buyer count increased by 10% year-on-year to 14.3 million, with a 25% year-on-year increase in the number of active merchants [7][23]. - The live streaming business revenue decreased by 2.0% year-on-year to CNY 98.5 billion, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to previous quarters [7][22].

关税预期施压，钴锂横盘震荡 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.29 ——钴锂金属周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) | 宁紫微(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 021-38038404 | 021-38038438 | | yujiayi@gtjas.com | ningziwei@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880522080001 | S0880523080002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 周期研判：维持锂钴行业增持评级。锂板块：市场交投渐淡，锂盐 价格持稳运行。1）无锡盘 2505 合约周度涨 1.37%至 7.41 万元/吨； 广期所 2505 合约周度涨 1.04%至 7.4 万元/吨；2）锂精矿：上海有 色网锂精矿价格为 821 美元/吨，环比下降 10 美元/吨。周内询盘价 格接受度多数较低，部分供应商为促进成交小幅下调报价。增持： 永兴材料，赣锋 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.29 网下扩容同步差异化配售，发挥长线资金 引领作用 | [table_Authors] 王政之(分析师) | 施怡昀(分析师) | 王思琪(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38674944 | 021-38032690 | 021-38038671 | | wangzhengzhi@gtjas.com | shiyiyun@gtjas.com | wangsiqi026737@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880517060002 | S0880522060002 | S0880524080007 | 本报告导读： 2025 年 3 月 28 日晚，证监会等多部门同步修订《证券发行与承销管理办法》等 4 项 规则，鼓励中长期资金入市，优化资本市场投资生态。 投资要点： 本周新股发行信息 [table 宏工科技（ _NewStock] 301662.SZ）发行 2000 万股 肯特催化（603120.SH）发行 2260 万股 [Table_Report] 相关报告 新股首日维持高涨幅，星宸科技迎百亿规模解禁 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 63.43 CNY per share, which corresponds to a 2025 P/EV of 0.70 times [2][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 26.23 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 201.1%, exceeding market expectations. The dividend payout ratio remains at 30% [3][11]. - The strong growth in NBV (New Business Value) is driven by the resonance of new policies and value rates, with a notable increase of 106.8% year-on-year in 2024 [11][12]. - Investment returns have significantly improved due to an optimized asset structure, with a focus on high-dividend OCI equities [11][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 132.56 billion CNY, an 85% increase from 2023, while net profit is expected to be 26.23 billion CNY [5][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 8.41 CNY, with a net asset return rate of 27% [5][12]. - The company’s total investment assets reached 1.63 trillion CNY by the end of 2024, reflecting a 21.1% increase from the beginning of the year [11][12]. Business Performance - The individual insurance channel's NBV grew by 37.2% year-on-year, with new policies increasing by 13.7%. The agent workforce decreased by 12% to 136,000, while the average monthly productivity per agent rose by 41% [11][12]. - The bancassurance channel's NBV surged by 516.5%, with new policies up by 3.6% and first-year premium income increasing by 11.5% [11][12]. Investment Returns - The net investment yield decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2%, while the total investment yield increased by 4.0 percentage points to 5.8% [11][12]. - The comprehensive investment return rate improved by 5.9 percentage points to 8.5%, primarily due to a 470.6% increase in high-dividend OCI equities [11][12].

新增长市场表现亮眼，规模效应持续显现 达势股份(1405) [Table_Report] 相关报告 ——达势股份 2024 年报业绩点评 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 | [当前价格 | 评级： | | --- | --- | | Table_CurPrice] (港元)： 114.30 | [Table_Invest] 增持 | | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | | | --- | --- | | 52 周内股价区间（港元） | 50.15-114.30 | | 当前股本（百万股） | 131 | 本报告导读： 公司仍处在品牌势能成长期，开店维持高增速，盈利能力持续优化。 投资要点： -6% 18% 42% 66% 90% 114% 52周内股价走势图 达势股份 恒生指数 [table_Authors] 刘越男(分析师) 宋小寒(分析师) 基本面稳健，流动性改善 2024.10.17 品牌势能强劲，新增长市场驱动成长 2024.08.30 新增长市场表现亮眼，门店扩张有望提速 2024.03.28 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万人民币） | 2022A | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 31.93 CNY per share, compared to the previous forecast of 30.32 CNY [6][12]. Core Insights - The company's performance aligns with expectations, showing robust growth driven by supply-side reforms in the industry. The leading position in the market is expected to strengthen further, benefiting from ongoing industry reforms [3][12]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 63.79 billion CNY and a net profit of 21.70 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.2% and 10.1%, respectively [12][13]. - The report highlights that the company's investment income has improved significantly, contributing to overall profit growth, with investment income increasing by 18% to 26.46 billion CNY [12][13]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: Revenue 60.07 billion CNY, Net Profit 19.72 billion CNY - 2024A: Revenue 63.79 billion CNY, Net Profit 21.70 billion CNY - 2025E: Revenue 69.50 billion CNY, Net Profit 23.45 billion CNY [5][13]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 1.33 CNY - 2024A: 1.46 CNY - 2025E: 1.58 CNY [5][13]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 7.8% - 2024A: 8.3% - 2025E: 8.4% [5][13]. - **Market Data**: - Current Price: 26.90 CNY - Market Capitalization: 398.67 billion CNY - 52-week Price Range: 17.50 - 34.88 CNY [7][12]. Industry Context - The report emphasizes that the supply-side reform remains a key theme in the industry, with the company positioned to accelerate its transformation and enhance its capabilities as a leading investment bank [12][13]. - The ongoing capital market reforms are expected to create new demands for high-quality investment banking services, which the company is well-equipped to meet [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 19.76 from the previous 16.34 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company's performance is driven by the growth of its new energy business, which is expected to continue benefiting from the local robot industry development in Chongqing. The company is positioned as a quality "auto parts + robotics" manufacturer in the region [2][9]. - The financial forecast indicates significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 35.36 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.9%. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.24 billion, a substantial increase of 134.0% compared to the previous year [3][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: Revenue of 2,808 million, Net Profit of -365 million - 2024A: Revenue of 3,536 million, Net Profit of 124 million - 2025E: Revenue of 4,514 million, Net Profit of 248 million - 2026E: Revenue of 5,459 million, Net Profit of 352 million - 2027E: Revenue of 6,557 million, Net Profit of 478 million - The company is expected to achieve a net profit margin of 3.5% in 2024, up by 16.5 percentage points year-on-year [3][10]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to improve from -15.4% in 2023A to 14.6% in 2027E [10]. - The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 78.55 in 2024 to 20.43 in 2027 [10]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 9,762 million, with a current price of 14.97 [4]. - The stock has shown significant price movement, with a 12-month absolute increase of 207% [8]. Business Development - The new energy business is expected to see a sales volume of 5.4 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 120%, with revenue from this segment reaching 5.27 billion, up 88% [9]. - The company is expanding into the robotics sector, leveraging its expertise in high-precision gear shafts and benefiting from supportive local policies in Chongqing [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 4.48, down from the previous forecast of 5.75 [6][13]. Core Insights - The company's operational performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with significant room for installed capacity growth and notable dividend value [3][13]. - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 86.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.81 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.8% increase year-on-year [13]. - The company has a robust pipeline with 16 approved nuclear power units under management, of which 7 are under construction and 9 are in the preparation stage for FCD, totaling an installed capacity of 19.4 GW [13]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 82.549 billion yuan, with projections for 2024 at 86.804 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 5.2% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 10.725 billion yuan, with a slight increase to 10.814 billion yuan expected in 2024 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to remain stable at 0.21 yuan for 2024, with a slight increase to 0.23 yuan in 2026 and 0.25 yuan in 2027 [5][14]. Market Data - The company's current stock price is 3.65 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 3.58 to 5.21 yuan [7]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 184.32 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 50.499 billion shares [7]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.095 yuan per share for 2024, resulting in a payout ratio of 44.4%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [13].

国内盈利抬升，海外风险下降 华新水泥(600801) ——华新水泥 2024 年报点评 | [table_Authors] 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 花健祎(分析师) | 杨冬庭(分析师) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 上次评级: | 增持 17.67 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-23976830 | 0755-23976858 | 0755-23976166 | | 上次预测: | 17.67 | | baoyanxin@gtjas.com | huajianyi@gtjas.com | yangdongting@gtjas.com | | | | | 登记编号 S0880513070005 | S0880521010001 | S0880522080004 | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 12.97 | 本报告导读： 公司 2024 年报符合预期，24 年国内水泥销量同比下滑被海外强劲增量对冲，同时 国内外水泥盈利兑现能力均在修复通道上。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百 ...