国泰君安晨报 2025 年 03 月 31 日 国泰君安证券股份有限公司 研究所 [周津宇 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38674924 邮箱：zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.com 登记编号：S0880516080007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 专题研究：《重构全球贸易体系：特朗普的理想与现实》 2025-03-27 黄汝南（分析师）010-83939779、汪浩（分析师）0755-23976659、韩朝辉（分析师）021-38038433 关税政策处于核心位置，关税不仅作为使美国在谈判中处于有利地位的手段，同时也承担为 财政增收的目的： 1）关税通常会提高进口商品的价格，但汇率变化可以通过使货币贬值来抵消部分关税的影 响，从而减少对美国经济的通胀压力，因此关税与汇率对冲之间也存在权衡取舍。 2）关税的突然冲击会导致金融市场的波动，因此有必要渐进式、分类别地实施关税方案，研 究表明美国对外最优关税税率可能是 20%，但也要考虑关税报复的可能性及其额外损害。 汇率政策也是实现再平衡的重要手段，核心是要促进美元贬值重振制造业，具体措施包括多 边货币协 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Pharmaceutical Group (1177) [3][8]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated impressive performance, with innovative product revenue continuing to rise and significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3][8]. - The company achieved a revenue of 28.87 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and a net profit of 3.5 billion RMB, which is a 50.1% increase year-on-year [8]. - The revenue from innovative products reached 12.06 billion RMB in 2024, a 21.9% increase year-on-year, accounting for 41.8% of total revenue [8]. - The company is expected to see multiple new drug approvals in 2025, which will further drive revenue growth [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 28.78 billion RMB, decreased to 26.19 billion RMB in 2023, and is projected to increase to 28.87 billion RMB in 2024, with further growth expected in subsequent years [7]. - The gross profit for 2024 is estimated at 23.53 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 81.5%, showing a slight increase from the previous year [8]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at 34.6 billion RMB, reflecting a 33.5% increase year-on-year [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 19.85, corresponding to a 0.94x PB for 2025 [8]. Core Insights - The company benefited from a recovery in wealth management and investment businesses, with Q4 performance exceeding expectations. The internationalization and specialization capabilities of the company are expected to continuously strengthen its business advantages, aiming to build a world-class investment bank [3][8]. Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of RMB 22,990.20 million, with a projected decline of 11.87%. The net profit for the same year was RMB 6,156.13 million, down 18.97% year-on-year. The forecast for 2024A shows revenue of RMB 21,333.44 million and net profit of RMB 5,694.34 million, reflecting a decrease of 7.21% and 7.50% respectively [7]. - Q4 single-quarter profit reached RMB 2,840 million, a year-on-year increase of 83.2%, driven primarily by the wealth management and investment business [8]. Business Performance - The wealth management business saw significant improvement, with Q4 brokerage revenue reaching RMB 1,700 million, up 67.6% year-on-year and 115.1% quarter-on-quarter. The asset allocation product scale has grown to nearly RMB 370 billion, marking five consecutive years of positive growth [8]. - The investment business benefited from an improved stock and bond environment, with a Q4 single-quarter investment return rate of 4.8%, an increase of 150 basis points year-on-year and 189 basis points quarter-on-quarter [8]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates an acceleration in supply-side reforms within the industry, with the company’s international and specialized capabilities expected to solidify its business advantages. The new round of capital market reforms focuses on comprehensive investment and financing reforms, which will create opportunities for high-quality securities firms to accelerate their transformation [8].

从技术到生态，EtherCAT 重塑机器人"神经元" [Table_Industry] 电子元器件 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | [table_Authors] 舒迪(分析师) | 王美懿(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38031385 | | shudi@gtjas.com | wangmeiyi029955@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880521070002 | S0880124070042 | 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.30 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 本报告导读： EtherCAT 赋能机器人智能化，构建"神经网络"核心支柱，引领产业未来。 投资要点： 电子元器件《国内政策驱动自主可控，国产算力 芯片加速渗透》2025.03.27 电子元器件《AI 算力铲子环节，国产测试机开启 新时代》2025.03.23 电子元器件《Blackwell Ultra 架构更新，CPO 赋 能下一代 AI 计算》2025.03.17 电子元器件《M ...

上次评级: 增持 | [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) | 刘小华(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 021-38038404 | 021-38038434 | | yujiayi@gtjas.com | liuxiaohua027843@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880522080001 | S0880523120003 | 本报告导读： 美国"对等关税"将启，滞胀担忧与美经济数据扰动之下，贵金属或震荡运行；同 时工业金属需求预期或受冲击，但国内政策侧重强化内需，预计将对冲部分影响， 叠加地缘风险扰动供给，工业金属价格将获支撑。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.30 关税在即，预期转换临近 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 ——有色及贵金属周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 有色金属《关税预期施压，钴锂横盘震荡》 2025.03.29 有色金属《情绪负反馈，钴锂双双承压》 2025.03.23 有色金属《对等关税临近，供需结构或阶段性改 变》2025.03.23 有色 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Accumulate" with a target price of 11.40 [7][28]. Core Views - The company's performance in both domestic and international sales is stable, and its profitability is expected to continue improving [3][28]. - The report maintains earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 and adds a new forecast for 2027, projecting EPS of 0.26, 0.30, and 0.34 yuan for those years, respectively [28]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 754 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.28%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 70 million yuan, a decrease of 2.59% [16]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw operating revenue of 247 million yuan, up 28.17% year-on-year, and a net profit of 31 million yuan, up 61.2% year-on-year [16]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's self-owned brand business revenue in 2024 was 587 million yuan, accounting for 78% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 11% [17]. - Domestic revenue for the self-owned brand was 523 million yuan, up 5% year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached 64 million yuan, a significant increase of 95% [17]. - In Q4 2024, the self-owned brand revenue was 213 million yuan, with domestic revenue of 193 million yuan (up 21%) and overseas revenue of 20 million yuan (up 210%) [17]. Profitability - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 46.9%, down 3.85 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 9.22%, down 1.5 percentage points [23]. - In Q4 2024, the gross margin was 45.95%, down 8.6 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 12.38%, up 2.54 percentage points [23]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company ended 2024 with cash and cash equivalents plus trading financial assets totaling 553 million yuan, a decrease of 127 million yuan year-on-year [25]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was 110 million yuan, down 37 million yuan year-on-year [26]. Dividend Policy - The company declared a cash dividend of 1.20 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 64.87 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 93% and a dividend yield of 1.2% [27].

纵向协同增强，分红价值凸显 新奥股份(600803) ——新奥股份 2024 年年报点评 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 143,842 | 135,910 | 142,491 | 148,290 | 155,696 | | (+/-)% | -6.7% | -5.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | | 净利润（归母） | 7,091 | 4,493 | 5,735 | 6,281 | 7,069 | | (+/-)% | 21.3% | -36.6% | 27.6% | 9.5% | 12.6% | | 每股净收益（元） | 2.29 | 1.45 | 1.85 | 2.03 | 2.28 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 30.0% | 19.1% | 21.3% | 21.3% | 21.5% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄） | 8.70 | 13.73 | 10.76 | 9.82 ...

量价齐升，毛销差明显提升 珠江啤酒(002461) ——珠江啤酒 2024 年报点评 | 2 | | --- | | 工壇 H | | 酒 | | (002 | | 2461 1 | 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 11.80 | | | 上次预测: | 11.20 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 10.14 | 本报告导读： 公司 2024 全年销量表现优于行业，吨价和结构提升趋势延续，吨成本明显下降，毛 销差扩张明显，2024Q4 预计进入渠道去库存状态为 2025 年增长奠定基础。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 5,378 | 5,731 | 6,102 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue decreased due to a decline in construction income, while the total dividend payout saw a slight increase. Capital expenditures continue to contract, leading to improved free cash flow [3][8]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24,270 million RMB, a year-on-year decline of 1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,678 million RMB, down 12% year-on-year. The decline in revenue was primarily due to a 42% drop in BOT water project construction income, which amounted to 2,616 million RMB [8]. - The total dividend payout for the year was 1,435 million RMB, slightly up from 1,420 million RMB in 2023 [8]. - The overall gross margin remained stable at 37%, while management expenses decreased by 7% to 3,071 million RMB [8]. Operational Performance - The company operated sewage treatment capacity of 19.65 million tons and recycled water plants of 2.09 million tons in 2024, with sewage treatment volume increasing by 5%. The average contract price for water treatment rose to 1.54 RMB/ton from 1.49 RMB/ton in 2023, with a gross margin increase of 2 percentage points to 57% [8]. - The operational water supply capacity was 10.24 million tons, with a 2% increase in supply volume. The actual average contract price for water supply remained stable at 2.15 RMB/ton, while the gross margin decreased by 5 percentage points to 40% due to increased amortization from more water pipe construction and renovation [8]. - Revenue from technical services and equipment sales reached 2,549 million RMB, a 4% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 42%, down 1 percentage point [8]. - Urban resource service revenue grew by 19% year-on-year to 6,028 million RMB, with a gross margin of 19%, down 1 percentage point [8]. Capital Expenditure - The company's total capital expenditure for 2024 was 4,105 million RMB, a significant decrease from 6,990 million RMB in 2023. Of this, 1,694 million RMB was allocated for the acquisition of property, plant, and equipment, while 2,350 million RMB was used for the construction and acquisition of water plants [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a significant adjusted net profit increase of 58% in 2024, driven by proactive supply chain optimization and regional adjustments to mitigate tariff risks, indicating a strong growth outlook [3] - The report maintains a target price of 10 RMB, suggesting that the stock is undervalued with a PE ratio of 6 times [8] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to reach 2,073 million RMB in 2024, representing a 31% increase from the previous year [7] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is expected to be 383 million RMB, reflecting a 57.9% growth [8] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 40.3%, up by 4.6 percentage points, with brand business gross margin at 43.5% [8] - Operating cash flow is expected to be 350 million RMB, an increase of 43.6% [8] Business Growth - The brand business revenue is anticipated to grow by 34.8% to 1,860 million RMB, while ODM revenue is expected to increase by 4.7% to 213 million RMB [8] - The U.S. market is projected to grow by 69% to 1,251 million RMB, accounting for 67.2% of total revenue, driven by online sales and channel expansion [8] - The global cookware market is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 3.2%, providing a favorable environment for the company to leverage its strengths [8]