民生保障支出增速较快 [Table_Authors] 黄汝南(分析师) ——2025 年 1-2 月财政数据点评 本报告导读： 2025 年 1-2 月财政收入端表现较弱，一般公共预算支出增长积极、进度较快，民生 保障为重点投入领域；政府性基金支出主要由中央财政支撑，地方支出增速受专项 债发行进度偏慢影响。根据财政部预算草案，2025 年财政赤字率和规模空前，将重 点支持民生和消费领域，年内或根据内外部环境变化适时推出增量政策。 投资要点： | | 010-83939779 | | --- | --- | | | huangrunan@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523080001 | | | 汪浩(分析师) | | | 0755-23976659 | | | wanghao025053@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 韩朝辉(分析师) | | | 021-38038433 | | | hanchaohui@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523110001 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 锚点通胀向就 ...

负债搬家而非"负债荒"：三重特征和回表后的机会 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 债 券 研 究 专 题 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 证 券 研 究 报 告 | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao026130@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 杜润琛(研究助理) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen028694@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123090079 | 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.27 [Table_Summary] 当前债市负债持续偏贵，主要原因或非"负债荒"而是"负债搬家"， 居民存款等负债从银行体系向非银转移。我们认为现阶段债市回调 的主因是负债偏贵无疑，但更深层次原因或不是"负债荒"，而是"负 债搬家"，并非总量流动性收缩，只是流动性的分布变化，居民存款 等负债从银行体系向非银转移。背后的主要驱动因素是，低利率且 利率中枢不断下移的环境下，非银体系募集负债时提供的"体感收 ...

Semiconductor Sector - Jiangnan New Materials successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange with a first-day increase of 659%[11] - Lixun Precision is acquiring the ODM business of Wentai Technology, involving a net asset value of approximately 4.43 million yuan[12] - SoftBank announced a $6.5 billion acquisition of US chip design company Ampere, enhancing its AI infrastructure strategy[13] Automotive Electronics Sector - GAC Aion and Didi Autonomous Driving's first Robotaxi production vehicle will be delivered in 2025, aiming for a global L4-level adaptation[19] - Hongjing Optoelectronics listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange with a first-day increase of over 250%, closing at 160.07 yuan per share[20] - Magna and NVIDIA are collaborating to develop L2+ to L4 level active safety solutions using NVIDIA's DRIVE Thor chip[24] AI Sector - Sensible Group signed a three-year strategic cooperation agreement with Zhiyuan Robotics to advance AI and humanoid robot innovations[30] - Elon Musk announced that Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus will enter trial production in 2025, with a target of producing 5,000 units[31] - OpenAI launched the o1-pro API, with pricing set at $150 per million input tokens and $600 per million output tokens, significantly higher than previous models[36] Metaverse Sector - Rayyu launched a 0.18cc full-color Micro-LED light engine, setting a new record for the smallest size in the market[40] - Apple released visionOS 2.4 beta 4, integrating AI capabilities into spatial computing experiences[41] Risk Factors - Market competition risk exists in semiconductor, automotive electronics, AI, and metaverse sectors due to rapid growth and increased investment[45] - Risks related to technological advancements not meeting expectations could hinder overall development in these sectors[46] - Market demand growth may not meet expectations, impacting the overall development of emerging sectors[46]

观研。 | 民生保障支出增速较快 | C | 黄汝南(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | પ્ર | 010-83939779 | | -- 2025年1-2月财政数据点评 | P | huangrunan@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880523080001 | | 本报告导读: | | | | 100 | | ------------ | 2025年1-2月财政收入端表现较弱,一般公共预算支出增长积极、进度较快,民生 保障为重点投入领域;政府性基金支出主要由中央财政支撑,地方支出增速受专项 债发行进度偏慢影响。根据财政部预算草案,2025年财政赤字率和规模空前,将重 点支持民生和消费领域,年内或根据内外部环境变化适时推出增量政策。 投资要点: | ને | 汪浩(分析师) | | --- | --- | | ટ | 0755-23976659 | | 0 | wanghao025053@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | ર | 韩朝辉(分析师) | | y | 021-38038433 | | D | hanch ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by the strong growth of its collagen stick product and the ramp-up of new products in the focus series, alongside the growth of its star product, Keli Jin [3][9]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new products in its cosmetics business, which is expected to contribute to future growth [3][9]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 55.39 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 57%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 21.51 billion RMB, up 47% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 20.62 billion RMB, a 42% increase [9]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 82.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to faster growth in the skincare segment compared to the medical device segment [9]. - The company’s sales expense ratio is expected to be 36.26%, an increase of 3.21 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of online sales [9]. - The company anticipates a net profit margin of 37.2% for 2024, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, due to changes in channel and product structure [9]. Product and Brand Performance - The company’s star product, the collagen stick, maintains strong momentum, with significant contributions from new products and brand expansion. The focus series cream has generated over 200 million RMB in revenue, indicating successful product structure optimization [9]. - The Keli Jin brand is expected to see accelerated growth in the second half of 2024, benefiting from the strong performance of its flagship products [9]. - The company has a diverse product line and brand portfolio, which is expected to sustain rapid growth through continuous new product incubation [9].

2024Q4 暂承压，2025 年经营改善可期 晨光股份(603899) —晨光股份 2024 年年报点评 林纸产品 [Table_Industry] /原材料 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] | 上次评级: | 增持 | | 目标价格： | | 35.79 | | | 上次预测: | 37.86 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 30.13 | 本报告导读： 受费用投入影响业绩暂承压，新零售业务推进及情绪消费趋势有望推动业绩改善。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 23,351 | 24,228 | 25,973 | 28,622 | 31,427 | | (+/-)% | 16.8% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | | 净利润（归母） | ...

Group 1: Strategy and Economic Outlook - The strategy team believes that the expansion of geopolitical risks and Germany's re-initiation of fiscal and defense expansion cycles may improve economic growth [2] - The German parliament has passed a €500 billion fiscal stimulus bill to enhance investments in infrastructure, defense, and energy, breaking the fiscal constraints established since 2009 [4][5] - The fiscal measures are seen as a response to increasing economic pressures and security concerns in Europe, particularly due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4][5] Group 2: Communication Industry - The GTC conference has introduced significant advancements in computing power, with the launch of new CPO switches marking a new era in optical communication [8][30] - The upcoming OFC 2025 event is expected to showcase various technological innovations, with a focus on CPO and other optical products [9][31] - Investment recommendations include companies with optical innovation potential such as Tai Chen Guang, New Yi Sheng, and Tian Fu Communication [9][31] Group 3: BYD Company - BYD's 2024 performance met expectations, with a revenue of ¥777.1 billion, a 29% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of ¥40.25 billion, up 34.2% [11][12] - The company is expected to benefit from advancements in intelligent driving technology and expansion into overseas markets [12][13] - BYD's market share in domestic passenger vehicles reached 17% and 34.7% in the new energy vehicle segment [12] Group 4: Huaneng International - Huaneng International's 2024 revenue was ¥245.6 billion, a decrease of 3.5%, while net profit increased by 20% to ¥10.1 billion [14][16] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of ¥4.24 billion, representing 41.8% of net profit [14][15] - The biomass segment and other income sources negatively impacted performance, but the company is seeing improvements in its renewable energy sector [15][16] Group 5: Building Materials Industry - The building materials sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability as major companies adjust their revenue growth expectations downward, leading to reduced price competition [19][20] - The industry is shifting from aggressive growth strategies to more sustainable operations, which may stabilize profit margins [20][21] - Recommended companies include leading firms such as Dongfang Yuhong and Beixin Building Materials [19] Group 6: Transportation Industry - The revision of the "Toll Road Management Regulations" is anticipated to enhance long-term returns for the highway sector [23][24] - The proposed changes include extending the operating period for toll roads and establishing a maintenance fee system to ensure sustainable funding [25][26] - Companies like China Merchants Highway and Ninghu Expressway are recommended as beneficiaries of these policy changes [23][26]

业绩亮眼，如日方升 小商品城(600415) ——小商品城 2024 年报点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.27 批零贸易业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] | 上次评级: | 增持 | | 目标价格： | | 19.50 | | | 上次预测: | 19.50 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 13.82 | 本报告导读： 风险提示：海外通胀及衰退风险，关税及贸易摩擦风险，新业务不 及预期等，竞争加剧等 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 11,300 | 15,737 | 19,710 | 23,864 | 27,479 | | (+/-)% | 48.3% | 39.3% | 25.2% | 21.1% | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][11] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance slightly missed expectations, with asset disposals negatively impacting profits. The special steel business remains stable, and lithium carbonate cost control is excellent, with a gradual increase in production expected [3][11] - The target price has been adjusted to 41.80 yuan, down from the previous 55.75 yuan, based on a revised profit forecast due to ongoing weak lithium prices [2][11] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8,074 million yuan, a decrease of 33.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,043 million yuan, down 69.4% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw revenue of 1,843 million yuan, a decline of 25.8%, and a net profit of 73 million yuan, down 79.5% year-on-year [5][11] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 has been revised to 1,125 million yuan and 1,398 million yuan, respectively, with an additional forecast for 2027 at 1,631 million yuan [11] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling 528 million yuan in 2024, with a payout ratio exceeding 50%, alongside a share buyback of 350 million yuan, representing 84.23% of the net profit for the period [11] Business Operations - The special steel segment reported production and sales of 305,000 tons and 303,000 tons, respectively, both down approximately 2% year-on-year. The company is actively pursuing ultra-low emission upgrades, with clean transportation and unorganized emissions passing audits [11] - In the lithium segment, the total sales volume for lithium carbonate in 2024 is projected at 26,000 tons, with a unit production cost of approximately 47,000 yuan per ton, significantly lower than the 53,000 yuan per ton in 2023 [11] - The company is expanding its mining capacity, with the Huashan porcelain stone mine expansion ongoing, expected to increase raw ore capacity to 9 million tons per year [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Huaneng International, with a target price of 11.10 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [2][6][14]. Core Views - The company's 4Q24 performance met expectations, with revenue of 612 million CNY, down 3.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.8 million CNY, a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [3][14]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.24 billion CNY, representing 41.8% of net profit, an increase of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [14]. - The biomass segment and other income negatively impacted performance, with a significant reduction in impairment losses [14]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 245.55 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.5% from 2023, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 20.0% to 10.14 billion CNY [5][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 0.77 CNY and 0.81 CNY, respectively, with a target EPS of 0.85 CNY for 2027 [14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 6.4% in 2023 to 7.4% in 2024, reaching 8.3% by 2025 [5][16]. Operational Highlights - The company's renewable energy segment saw a 23.7% year-on-year increase in electricity generation, with wind and solar power generation rising by 15.9% and 47.2%, respectively [14]. - The total profit from the renewable energy segment in 4Q24 was 1.87 billion CNY, up 29.4% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in profitability [14]. - The company added 9.3 GW of new renewable energy capacity in 2024, with 4.2 GW added in 4Q24 alone [14][19].