Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry, particularly focusing on the internet media sector in Hong Kong, which is seen as nearing the end of its first round of valuation recovery [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights three main investment themes for the media sector: gaming, film, and cyclical recovery, with a strong emphasis on the upcoming product cycles in gaming and the expected improvement in film supply by 2025 [2][15][23]. Summary by Sections Media Industry Overview - The media sector has lagged behind other TMT sectors since September 24, with a reported increase of 26.3% compared to higher gains in technology and communication sectors [6]. - Historically, the media sector has outperformed the ChiNext and CSI 300 indices in Q4 over the past five years, driven by performance vacuums and new industry trends or catalysts [6][9]. Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is entering a new product cycle, with Q3 2024 mobile game market size reaching 657 billion, marking a historical high [15][19]. - Regulatory concerns have eased with a normalization in the issuance of game licenses, leading to a more favorable environment for new product launches [17][19]. - Key gaming stocks include Shenzhou Taiyue, Kaixin Network, and Giant Network, with a focus on upcoming titles expected to launch in Q4 2024 and beyond [19][22]. Film Sector - The film market is expected to improve in 2025 due to a higher number of quality films being released, following a weak 2024 where ticket sales dropped by 24% [23][26]. - Upcoming films include "The Flames on the Plain" and "Nezha: The Devil Child Rises," which are anticipated to drive growth in the film sector [26][28]. Cyclical Recovery - The report notes a positive shift in cyclical consumption expectations following recent policy announcements, which are expected to bolster market confidence [15][23]. - Key stocks in this area include Focus Media and Mango TV, which are positioned to benefit from improving consumer sentiment [15][23]. AI and M&A Catalysts - The report identifies AI advancements and merger & acquisition activities as potential catalysts for growth in the media sector, with significant policy support for restructuring and integration [10][13][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, highlighting undervalued high-growth targets [4][5]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic judgment for the chemical sector indicates a shift towards a looser supply-demand balance for crude oil, with expectations of prices around $70 per barrel in Q4 and $65 in 2025 [5][6]. - BASF's vitamin production has been delayed again, which is expected to tighten supply and positively impact the market in the short term [9]. - Export demand is recovering, leading to an increase in R32 foreign trade prices, suggesting a strong upward trend for refrigerant prices [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes that crude oil supply is expected to increase, leading to a more relaxed supply-demand situation globally, with coal prices projected to decline in the medium to long term [5][6]. - The natural gas market is experiencing bottom fluctuations, while overall energy prices are expected to remain above the central level [5][6]. Vitamin Sector - BASF has announced further delays in the production of vitamins VA and VE, now expected to resume in April and July 2025, respectively, which may tighten supply in the industry [9]. Refrigerant Market - R32 foreign trade prices have risen by approximately 3000 RMB/ton, with prices now exceeding 40,000 RMB/ton, indicating a strong upward trend in refrigerant prices [10]. Chemical Sector Configuration - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical stocks and specific companies within the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, among others [5]. MDI Market - The MDI market is entering a peak demand season, with prices for both polymer and pure MDI showing slight increases, indicating a strong market outlook [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, highlighting key investment opportunities in fiscal IT systems and technology competition [6][8]. Core Insights - Fiscal IT systems are crucial tools for implementing fiscal policies, with significant market potential for fiscal IT suppliers, particularly in budget management and electronic vouchers [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technology competition and the concept of "dual circulation" in the tech industry, which enhances the overall competitiveness of the sector [7][26]. - Huawei's full industry chain opportunities are explored, focusing on computing power, AI solutions, and autonomous driving technologies [7][8]. Summary by Sections Fiscal IT Systems - The report discusses the role of fiscal IT systems in supporting government debt management and budget execution, with a projected market space exceeding 10 billion for integrated budget management systems and 69.9 billion for electronic vouchers [6][12][17]. - Historical context is provided, detailing the evolution of fiscal IT systems in China and their significance in modern fiscal policy implementation [11][12]. Technology Competition - Recent events in technology competition are analyzed, including regulatory changes and market dynamics that affect the tech landscape [7][26]. - The report highlights the resilience of the tech industry despite external pressures, with a focus on enhancing R&D and product competitiveness [29][33]. Company Updates - Hikvision is noted for its share buyback and increased shareholder returns, while iFlytek shows stable performance with significant AI model contracts [6][8]. - Specific companies are identified as key players in various segments, including AIGC, digital economy, and data innovation, with detailed performance metrics provided [21][22][23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating a favorable investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy support for the capital market, which is expected to boost investor confidence. Key announcements include potential interest rate cuts and support for insurance institutions to establish private equity funds [1][11]. - The implementation of the Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Facility (SFISF) is expected to enhance liquidity in the capital market, benefiting brokerage firms and trading software companies [1][11]. - The insurance sector is experiencing significant profit growth, with several companies reporting substantial increases in net profit for the third quarter of 2024 [1][18][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,925.23 with a weekly change of +0.98%, while the non-bank index rose by +2.49% to 1,891.11. Brokerage firms and insurance sectors reported weekly changes of +3.58% and +0.10%, respectively [4]. Industry Data - As of October 18, 2024, the 10-year government bond yield was 2.12%, with a weekly change of -1.83 basis points. The average daily stock trading volume for October 2024 reached 20,597.51 billion, reflecting a 158.47% increase compared to the previous month [7][8]. Industry News and Announcements - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved 20 companies, including major brokerages, to participate in the SFISF, which allows for enhanced trading and investment strategies [12][27]. - The report notes that five listed insurance companies have announced profit increases for the third quarter, with China Life expected to see a net profit growth of 165%-185% year-on-year [1][18]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerage firms that will benefit from capital market reforms, such as Huatai Securities and China Galaxy. It also suggests monitoring insurance companies like New China Life and China Ping An for potential growth opportunities [1][11].

产 业 行 业 及 食品饮料 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 《白酒增速放缓 食品表现分化—— 食品 饮料 2024 三季度业绩前瞻 》 2024/10/14 《聚焦基本面 关注三季报——食品饮料行 业周报 20241008—20241011》 2024/10/12 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 曹欣之 A0230522080002 caoxz@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 熊智超 A0230524050003 xiongzc@swsresearch.com 联系人 严泽楠 (8621)23297818× yanzn@swsresearch.com 2024 年 10 月 20 日震荡分化 匹配基本面 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20241014—20241018 本期投资提示： ⚫ 投资分析意见： 本周统计局公布 9 月经济数据。9 月社零 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the social services industry, highlighting strong growth in passenger transport and tourism sectors [4][5]. Core Insights - The aviation sector experienced a double-digit growth in passenger transport, with a total of 202 million passengers in Q3 2024, marking a 12.4% increase year-on-year and a 15.4% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [4][9]. - The hotel industry faced challenges due to a decline in business travel, with an average occupancy rate of 62.55% in Q3 2024, down 2.88% from the previous year [4][10]. - Key tourist attractions like Changbai Mountain and Jiuhua Mountain saw significant visitor increases, with Changbai Mountain receiving 1.678 million visitors in Q3 2024, a 5.85% year-on-year growth [4][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Aviation and Tourism Performance - Q3 2024 saw a total of 2.02 billion passengers transported by civil aviation, with international flights recovering to 78.3% of 2019 levels [4][9]. - Domestic passenger transport reached 1.81 billion, up 8.1% year-on-year, while international transport surged by 71.5% [4][9]. 2. Hotel Industry Analysis - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels was 215.46 yuan, down 7.09% year-on-year, with a RevPAR of 134.77 yuan, reflecting an 11.18% decline [4][10]. - The occupancy rates for different hotel categories showed declines, with luxury hotels experiencing the most significant drop [10]. 3. Cross-Border E-commerce Growth - Cross-border e-commerce exports reached 1.48 trillion yuan, a 15.2% increase, while imports slightly decreased by 0.4% [5][19]. - The total cross-border e-commerce trade volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.88 trillion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year [5][19]. 4. Visitor Trends and Recommendations - A significant increase in inbound and outbound travel was noted, with 160 million people crossing borders in Q3 2024, a 30.1% increase year-on-year [5][19]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on key scenic spots and travel agencies, such as Changbai Mountain, Jiuhua Tourism, and Zhongqing Travel [5][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant policy shifts aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including the resumption of monetary compensation for urban renewal, which is deemed crucial for market recovery [1]. - Recent data indicates a rebound in new home sales, with a week-on-week increase of 67% in 34 key cities, although year-on-year figures remain negative [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of local government autonomy in implementing housing policies, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and adjustments to loan terms [21][22]. Industry Data Summary - **New Home Sales**: In the week of October 12-18, 2024, new home sales in 34 key cities totaled 321 million square meters, a 67% increase from the previous week. However, year-to-date sales are down 30.8% compared to last year [2][4]. - **Inventory Levels**: As of October 18, 2024, the available residential area in 15 cities was 97.65 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week. The average monthly inventory clearance period is 23.9 months, down 1.1 months from the previous period [14][21]. - **Policy Changes**: The report outlines several policy measures aimed at reducing housing costs, including lowering down payment ratios and interest rates for housing loans, as well as increasing the credit scale for "white list" projects to 4 trillion yuan by year-end [21][22]. Company Dynamics - **Sales Performance**: In September 2024, major real estate companies reported significant declines in sales, with Vanke A at 17.42 billion yuan (-45.6%), China Resources Land at 16.90 billion yuan (-36.5%), and New City Holdings at 2.29 billion yuan (-60.1%) [30]. - **Share Buybacks**: China Merchants Shekou plans to repurchase shares with a budget of 3.5 to 7 billion yuan, indicating confidence in its long-term value [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as Bosideng and 361 Degrees, indicating a positive outlook for the textile and apparel sector [2][12][15]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector is expected to see a recovery in demand as the fourth quarter approaches, with brands increasing product launches and marketing efforts to capitalize on the peak season [8][10]. - Retail sales in September showed a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% in clothing retail, suggesting a potential bottoming out of domestic demand [8][25]. - The report highlights the strong performance of cross-border e-commerce, with a 15.2% increase in export value, indicating robust growth opportunities in this segment [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 1.0%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 2.1 percentage points from October 14 to 18 [3]. - The September retail sales data showed a total retail value of 116.9 billion yuan for clothing, down 0.4% year-on-year, while online retail for clothing grew by 4.1% [25][31]. Company Highlights - Bosideng's strategic investment in the luxury down jacket brand Moose Knuckles aims to enhance its brand matrix and expand its international presence [10][12]. - 361 Degrees reported a 10% year-on-year growth in both adult and children's apparel retail sales, with e-commerce sales increasing by 20-25%, reflecting strong operational quality [13][24]. Export Trends - In September, the textile industry experienced a 4% year-on-year decline in export value, totaling 24.8 billion USD, with apparel exports down by 5.1% [9][31]. - The report notes that Vietnam's textile exports continue to outperform those of China, indicating a shift in global textile production dynamics [9]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the domestic demand is stabilizing, and the textile manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in global demand, particularly in the sportswear segment [9][12]. - Companies with strong operational capabilities and brand recognition are recommended for investment, including Bosideng, 361 Degrees, and others in the textile manufacturing chain [8][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the logistics and transportation industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in the express delivery sector and shipping companies [3][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the express delivery sector, driven by seasonal demand and price increases in response to the "anti-involution" initiative [6][10]. - It highlights the recovery of the aviation sector, with significant increases in passenger transport volumes compared to pre-pandemic levels [11][24]. - The shipping industry is expected to benefit from rising oil prices and OPEC's production strategies, with specific recommendations for companies in the oil transportation segment [6][8]. Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - Hengli Heavy Industry is set to go public through a reverse merger, with a projected revenue of 768 million yuan and a net asset of 479 million yuan for 2023 [6]. - The company holds orders worth 10.8 billion USD, accounting for 38% of China Shipbuilding's orders, with a production forecast of 1.75 million CGT by 2027 [6][10]. - VLCC rates increased by 7% to 34,003 USD/day, with expectations for further price increases due to market confidence [7][8]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 18.5% in September, with major companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express showing significant increases in business volume [10][12]. - The report recommends companies with high growth potential and profitability, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as they are expected to benefit from price increases [10][11]. Aviation Sector - Major airlines in China reported a total passenger transport volume of 442.43 million from January to September, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [11][24]. - The report suggests a dual-driven investment strategy focusing on international routes and supply recovery, recommending airlines like China National Aviation and Spring Airlines [11][12]. Road and Rail Transport - The report recommends investments in companies like Wantong Expressway and Daqin Railway, highlighting a 10.3% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment in railways [12][13]. - The national railway transported 78.68 million tons of goods in the first half of October, indicating a slight decrease from the previous period [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report rates the securities industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation that the industry will outperform the overall market [7]. Core Insights - The recent announcement by the central bank regarding the launch of two monetary policy tools is expected to bring stable incremental funds to the capital market. This includes a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies, with an initial application amount exceeding 200 billion yuan, accounting for 40% of the first operation quota of 500 billion yuan [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the actual market entry progress of non-bank financial institutions following the policy implementation. It suggests focusing on two main lines: top institutions benefiting from capital market reforms and brokerage firms involved in mergers and acquisitions [4]. Summary by Sections Policy Announcement - On October 18, the central bank announced the initiation of two policy tools aimed at enhancing liquidity in the capital market, detailing transaction models, swap terms, collateral types, and discount rates [3]. - The swap facility allows for a one-year term with the possibility of extension, and the collateral can include various securities such as bonds and ETFs [3]. Financial Institutions and Loan Details - The announcement clarifies the roles of listed companies, financial institutions, and regulatory bodies in the stock repurchase and increase loan process. The initial loan quota is set at 300 billion yuan with an interest rate of 1.75% [4]. - The report highlights that the first batch of applications from financial institutions has already exceeded 200 billion yuan, indicating strong interest and potential market impact [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading institutions that will benefit from capital market reforms, such as Huatai Securities, China Galaxy, and CITIC Securities, as well as brokerage firms involved in mergers and acquisitions like Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities [4]. - Additionally, it suggests monitoring financial information service companies like Dongfang Caifu, which may benefit from increased market activity [4].