Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, highlighting key investment opportunities in fiscal IT systems and technology competition [6][8]. Core Insights - Fiscal IT systems are crucial tools for implementing fiscal policies, with significant market potential for fiscal IT suppliers, particularly in budget management and electronic vouchers [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technology competition and the concept of "dual circulation" in the tech industry, which enhances the overall competitiveness of the sector [7][26]. - Huawei's full industry chain opportunities are explored, focusing on computing power, AI solutions, and autonomous driving technologies [7][8]. Summary by Sections Fiscal IT Systems - The report discusses the role of fiscal IT systems in supporting government debt management and budget execution, with a projected market space exceeding 10 billion for integrated budget management systems and 69.9 billion for electronic vouchers [6][12][17]. - Historical context is provided, detailing the evolution of fiscal IT systems in China and their significance in modern fiscal policy implementation [11][12]. Technology Competition - Recent events in technology competition are analyzed, including regulatory changes and market dynamics that affect the tech landscape [7][26]. - The report highlights the resilience of the tech industry despite external pressures, with a focus on enhancing R&D and product competitiveness [29][33]. Company Updates - Hikvision is noted for its share buyback and increased shareholder returns, while iFlytek shows stable performance with significant AI model contracts [6][8]. - Specific companies are identified as key players in various segments, including AIGC, digital economy, and data innovation, with detailed performance metrics provided [21][22][23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating a favorable investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy support for the capital market, which is expected to boost investor confidence. Key announcements include potential interest rate cuts and support for insurance institutions to establish private equity funds [1][11]. - The implementation of the Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Facility (SFISF) is expected to enhance liquidity in the capital market, benefiting brokerage firms and trading software companies [1][11]. - The insurance sector is experiencing significant profit growth, with several companies reporting substantial increases in net profit for the third quarter of 2024 [1][18][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,925.23 with a weekly change of +0.98%, while the non-bank index rose by +2.49% to 1,891.11. Brokerage firms and insurance sectors reported weekly changes of +3.58% and +0.10%, respectively [4]. Industry Data - As of October 18, 2024, the 10-year government bond yield was 2.12%, with a weekly change of -1.83 basis points. The average daily stock trading volume for October 2024 reached 20,597.51 billion, reflecting a 158.47% increase compared to the previous month [7][8]. Industry News and Announcements - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved 20 companies, including major brokerages, to participate in the SFISF, which allows for enhanced trading and investment strategies [12][27]. - The report notes that five listed insurance companies have announced profit increases for the third quarter, with China Life expected to see a net profit growth of 165%-185% year-on-year [1][18]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerage firms that will benefit from capital market reforms, such as Huatai Securities and China Galaxy. It also suggests monitoring insurance companies like New China Life and China Ping An for potential growth opportunities [1][11].

产 业 行 业 及 食品饮料 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 《白酒增速放缓 食品表现分化—— 食品 饮料 2024 三季度业绩前瞻 》 2024/10/14 《聚焦基本面 关注三季报——食品饮料行 业周报 20241008—20241011》 2024/10/12 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 曹欣之 A0230522080002 caoxz@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 熊智超 A0230524050003 xiongzc@swsresearch.com 联系人 严泽楠 (8621)23297818× yanzn@swsresearch.com 2024 年 10 月 20 日震荡分化 匹配基本面 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20241014—20241018 本期投资提示： ⚫ 投资分析意见： 本周统计局公布 9 月经济数据。9 月社零 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the social services industry, highlighting strong growth in passenger transport and tourism sectors [4][5]. Core Insights - The aviation sector experienced a double-digit growth in passenger transport, with a total of 202 million passengers in Q3 2024, marking a 12.4% increase year-on-year and a 15.4% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [4][9]. - The hotel industry faced challenges due to a decline in business travel, with an average occupancy rate of 62.55% in Q3 2024, down 2.88% from the previous year [4][10]. - Key tourist attractions like Changbai Mountain and Jiuhua Mountain saw significant visitor increases, with Changbai Mountain receiving 1.678 million visitors in Q3 2024, a 5.85% year-on-year growth [4][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Aviation and Tourism Performance - Q3 2024 saw a total of 2.02 billion passengers transported by civil aviation, with international flights recovering to 78.3% of 2019 levels [4][9]. - Domestic passenger transport reached 1.81 billion, up 8.1% year-on-year, while international transport surged by 71.5% [4][9]. 2. Hotel Industry Analysis - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels was 215.46 yuan, down 7.09% year-on-year, with a RevPAR of 134.77 yuan, reflecting an 11.18% decline [4][10]. - The occupancy rates for different hotel categories showed declines, with luxury hotels experiencing the most significant drop [10]. 3. Cross-Border E-commerce Growth - Cross-border e-commerce exports reached 1.48 trillion yuan, a 15.2% increase, while imports slightly decreased by 0.4% [5][19]. - The total cross-border e-commerce trade volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.88 trillion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year [5][19]. 4. Visitor Trends and Recommendations - A significant increase in inbound and outbound travel was noted, with 160 million people crossing borders in Q3 2024, a 30.1% increase year-on-year [5][19]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on key scenic spots and travel agencies, such as Changbai Mountain, Jiuhua Tourism, and Zhongqing Travel [5][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant policy shifts aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including the resumption of monetary compensation for urban renewal, which is deemed crucial for market recovery [1]. - Recent data indicates a rebound in new home sales, with a week-on-week increase of 67% in 34 key cities, although year-on-year figures remain negative [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of local government autonomy in implementing housing policies, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and adjustments to loan terms [21][22]. Industry Data Summary - **New Home Sales**: In the week of October 12-18, 2024, new home sales in 34 key cities totaled 321 million square meters, a 67% increase from the previous week. However, year-to-date sales are down 30.8% compared to last year [2][4]. - **Inventory Levels**: As of October 18, 2024, the available residential area in 15 cities was 97.65 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week. The average monthly inventory clearance period is 23.9 months, down 1.1 months from the previous period [14][21]. - **Policy Changes**: The report outlines several policy measures aimed at reducing housing costs, including lowering down payment ratios and interest rates for housing loans, as well as increasing the credit scale for "white list" projects to 4 trillion yuan by year-end [21][22]. Company Dynamics - **Sales Performance**: In September 2024, major real estate companies reported significant declines in sales, with Vanke A at 17.42 billion yuan (-45.6%), China Resources Land at 16.90 billion yuan (-36.5%), and New City Holdings at 2.29 billion yuan (-60.1%) [30]. - **Share Buybacks**: China Merchants Shekou plans to repurchase shares with a budget of 3.5 to 7 billion yuan, indicating confidence in its long-term value [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as Bosideng and 361 Degrees, indicating a positive outlook for the textile and apparel sector [2][12][15]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector is expected to see a recovery in demand as the fourth quarter approaches, with brands increasing product launches and marketing efforts to capitalize on the peak season [8][10]. - Retail sales in September showed a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% in clothing retail, suggesting a potential bottoming out of domestic demand [8][25]. - The report highlights the strong performance of cross-border e-commerce, with a 15.2% increase in export value, indicating robust growth opportunities in this segment [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 1.0%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 2.1 percentage points from October 14 to 18 [3]. - The September retail sales data showed a total retail value of 116.9 billion yuan for clothing, down 0.4% year-on-year, while online retail for clothing grew by 4.1% [25][31]. Company Highlights - Bosideng's strategic investment in the luxury down jacket brand Moose Knuckles aims to enhance its brand matrix and expand its international presence [10][12]. - 361 Degrees reported a 10% year-on-year growth in both adult and children's apparel retail sales, with e-commerce sales increasing by 20-25%, reflecting strong operational quality [13][24]. Export Trends - In September, the textile industry experienced a 4% year-on-year decline in export value, totaling 24.8 billion USD, with apparel exports down by 5.1% [9][31]. - The report notes that Vietnam's textile exports continue to outperform those of China, indicating a shift in global textile production dynamics [9]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the domestic demand is stabilizing, and the textile manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in global demand, particularly in the sportswear segment [9][12]. - Companies with strong operational capabilities and brand recognition are recommended for investment, including Bosideng, 361 Degrees, and others in the textile manufacturing chain [8][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the logistics and transportation industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in the express delivery sector and shipping companies [3][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the express delivery sector, driven by seasonal demand and price increases in response to the "anti-involution" initiative [6][10]. - It highlights the recovery of the aviation sector, with significant increases in passenger transport volumes compared to pre-pandemic levels [11][24]. - The shipping industry is expected to benefit from rising oil prices and OPEC's production strategies, with specific recommendations for companies in the oil transportation segment [6][8]. Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - Hengli Heavy Industry is set to go public through a reverse merger, with a projected revenue of 768 million yuan and a net asset of 479 million yuan for 2023 [6]. - The company holds orders worth 10.8 billion USD, accounting for 38% of China Shipbuilding's orders, with a production forecast of 1.75 million CGT by 2027 [6][10]. - VLCC rates increased by 7% to 34,003 USD/day, with expectations for further price increases due to market confidence [7][8]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 18.5% in September, with major companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express showing significant increases in business volume [10][12]. - The report recommends companies with high growth potential and profitability, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as they are expected to benefit from price increases [10][11]. Aviation Sector - Major airlines in China reported a total passenger transport volume of 442.43 million from January to September, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [11][24]. - The report suggests a dual-driven investment strategy focusing on international routes and supply recovery, recommending airlines like China National Aviation and Spring Airlines [11][12]. Road and Rail Transport - The report recommends investments in companies like Wantong Expressway and Daqin Railway, highlighting a 10.3% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment in railways [12][13]. - The national railway transported 78.68 million tons of goods in the first half of October, indicating a slight decrease from the previous period [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report rates the securities industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation that the industry will outperform the overall market [7]. Core Insights - The recent announcement by the central bank regarding the launch of two monetary policy tools is expected to bring stable incremental funds to the capital market. This includes a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies, with an initial application amount exceeding 200 billion yuan, accounting for 40% of the first operation quota of 500 billion yuan [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the actual market entry progress of non-bank financial institutions following the policy implementation. It suggests focusing on two main lines: top institutions benefiting from capital market reforms and brokerage firms involved in mergers and acquisitions [4]. Summary by Sections Policy Announcement - On October 18, the central bank announced the initiation of two policy tools aimed at enhancing liquidity in the capital market, detailing transaction models, swap terms, collateral types, and discount rates [3]. - The swap facility allows for a one-year term with the possibility of extension, and the collateral can include various securities such as bonds and ETFs [3]. Financial Institutions and Loan Details - The announcement clarifies the roles of listed companies, financial institutions, and regulatory bodies in the stock repurchase and increase loan process. The initial loan quota is set at 300 billion yuan with an interest rate of 1.75% [4]. - The report highlights that the first batch of applications from financial institutions has already exceeded 200 billion yuan, indicating strong interest and potential market impact [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading institutions that will benefit from capital market reforms, such as Huatai Securities, China Galaxy, and CITIC Securities, as well as brokerage firms involved in mergers and acquisitions like Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities [4]. - Additionally, it suggests monitoring financial information service companies like Dongfang Caifu, which may benefit from increased market activity [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, indicating a "look good" investment sentiment [4]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with the sector index rising by 0.5% while the CSI 300 increased by 1.0% [5][7]. - Key companies such as Boss Electric, XGIMI, and Ecovacs saw significant gains, while companies like Beike and Hisense Visual experienced notable declines [5][9]. - Recent government initiatives to expand the scope of appliance recycling and replacement programs are expected to stimulate demand [12][63]. - The report highlights a significant increase in sales volume and average prices across various appliance categories, indicating a positive market trend [24][29][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Multiple regions have expanded the categories eligible for appliance recycling and replacement subsidies, including seven new smart appliance categories in Jiangsu and six in Foshan, totaling 18 categories [12][63]. - Companies like Guangfeng and XGIMI have recently received notifications for vehicle-mounted product supply, indicating diversification into automotive applications [13][48]. Sales Data Observations - Air conditioning sales volume and revenue increased by 57.3% and 65.2% year-on-year in September, with an average price of 4,551 yuan, up 4.93% [24][27]. - Refrigerator sales volume and revenue rose by 21.9% and 34.1% respectively, with an average price of 7,079 yuan, up 8.1% [29]. - Washing machines saw a 17.0% increase in sales volume and a 29.1% increase in revenue, with an average price of 4,527 yuan, up 8.4% [29]. - Kitchen appliances like range hoods and gas stoves also reported significant sales increases, with range hoods up 35.6% in volume and 52.7% in revenue [33]. Investment Highlights - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. White goods benefiting from favorable real estate policies and the potential for price and volume growth due to recycling incentives [5]. 2. Export orders are recovering, with expected improvements in revenue and performance for companies like Supor and Stone Technology [5]. 3. Core component manufacturers are seeing increased demand driven by the robust performance of the white goods sector, with recommendations for companies like Huaxiang and Shun'an [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company announced a strategic investment in the international luxury down jacket brand Moose Knuckles, expanding its international business and enhancing its brand portfolio [4] - Recent seasonal sales have been strong, with product innovations such as "Light Warm Goose Down" and "Stack Change" series receiving positive feedback [4] - The company is optimizing its store structure and expanding into incremental markets, particularly focusing on strategic cities with low store penetration [4] - A strategic cooperation agreement with Harbin has been signed to jointly promote the creation of a winter apparel brand IP [4] - The company has over 40 years of experience in the down jacket industry, with a solid foundation and strong consumer recognition, and is expanding into outdoor and functional apparel sectors [4] Financial Performance - FY24 revenue is projected at 232.1 billion yuan, a 38.4% year-on-year increase [7] - FY24 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.07 billion yuan, a 43.7% year-on-year increase [7] - Gross margin for FY24 is 59.6%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points [8] - Net profit margin for FY24 is 13.2%, up by 0.5 percentage points [8] Strategic Investments and Innovations - The strategic investment in Moose Knuckles aims to fill the gap in the luxury trendy down jacket market [4] - Product innovations include the "Stack Change" series, which offers multi-functional designs for different scenarios, and the VERTEX series, which enhances the high-end outdoor product line [4] - The company has upgraded its Puff series in collaboration with the Italian brand MSGM, improving both warmth and fashion appeal [4] Market Expansion and Channel Optimization - The company is deepening channel stratification and focusing on top-tier stores as experimental hubs [4] - Strategic incremental markets, such as Jiamusi in Heilongjiang, are being targeted for new store openings and upgrades [4] - The cooperation with Harbin aims to leverage the city's winter tourism boom to boost sales and brand visibility [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with projected net profits of 3.63 billion, 4.19 billion, and 4.78 billion yuan for FY24-26, respectively [4] - The PE ratios for FY24-26 are estimated at 13x, 11x, and 10x, respectively [4]