Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company 361 Degrees [1] Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance for FY2024, with revenue growth of 19.6% to RMB 10.07 billion and net profit growth of 19.5% to RMB 1.15 billion [6][7] - The dividend payout increased to HKD 0.265 per share, with a payout ratio of 45%, up from 40% in FY2023 [6] - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational efficiency and revenue growth across its children's and adult clothing segments [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: RMB 8.42 billion - FY2024: RMB 10.07 billion - FY2025E: RMB 11.30 billion - FY2026E: RMB 12.38 billion - FY2027E: RMB 13.45 billion - Net profit projections for the same period are: - FY2023: RMB 0.96 billion - FY2024: RMB 1.15 billion - FY2025E: RMB 1.30 billion - FY2026E: RMB 1.45 billion - FY2027E: RMB 1.58 billion [5][15] - The company expects sales growth of 10-15% in 2025, driven primarily by volume growth [6] Business Performance - The children's clothing segment generated RMB 2.34 billion in revenue, a 19.5% increase, while the adult clothing segment reached RMB 7.38 billion, also up by 19% [6] - The gross margin improved to 41.5%, with a slight increase in operating efficiency reflected in reduced expense ratios [6][11] - The company has been focusing on enhancing its brand and channel efficiency, which is expected to lead to market share growth [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Jiangnan Chemical, marking its first coverage [6][7]. Core Views - Jiangnan Chemical, a platform under the China Ordnance Industry Group, is positioned for long-term growth through both organic and external expansion. The company has a leading industrial explosive production capacity and is expected to benefit from increasing demand in Xinjiang due to coal production growth and opportunities from the Belt and Road Initiative [6][7][21]. - The report highlights a favorable outlook for the civil explosives industry, particularly in the western regions and along the Belt and Road, driven by safety, intelligence, centralization, and integration trends [6][7][40]. - Jiangnan Chemical's industrial explosive capacity is nearly 800,000 tons per year, with a significant presence in Xinjiang. The company is expected to continue benefiting from asset injections from the Ordnance Group and has a strong overseas market presence [6][7][26]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The projected total revenue for Jiangnan Chemical is 88.95 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8%. By 2026, revenue is expected to reach 139.47 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 32% [2]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 7.73 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant increase to 15.58 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% [2][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 0.29 yuan in 2023 to 0.59 yuan in 2026 [2][7]. Market Data - As of March 13, 2025, Jiangnan Chemical's closing price is 5.88 yuan, with a market capitalization of 15.575 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 20 in 2023, which is expected to decrease to around 13 by 2025, indicating a valuation below the average PE of comparable companies [2][7]. Industry Dynamics - The civil explosives industry is experiencing consolidation, with the top 10 companies expected to account for over 60% of the market by 2025. The report emphasizes the importance of mergers and acquisitions in enhancing industry concentration [6][56]. - The demand for civil explosives is expected to grow significantly in regions like Xinjiang, driven by coal production and infrastructure projects associated with the Belt and Road Initiative [6][40]. - The report notes that the industry is moving towards a service-oriented model, with an increasing focus on integrated blasting services and the use of digital technologies [6][50].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic mother and baby retail sector, focusing on AI integration and multi-line expansion strategies. It has maintained its position as the only representative from the mother and baby industry in the top 100 chain rankings for eight consecutive years [6][21]. - The company has a strong customer relationship management system and a direct sales model that has created a deep competitive moat. It operates over 1,000 stores nationwide and has a membership base of 90.7 million [6][7]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 9.79 billion, 10.84 billion, and 11.75 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 11.9%, 10.7%, and 8.3% [2][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected as follows: 8,753 for 2023, 9,790 for 2024, 10,841 for 2025, and 11,745 for 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 2.7%, 11.9%, 10.7%, and 8.3% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is forecasted to be 105 for 2023, 187 for 2024, 300 for 2025, and 405 for 2026, with growth rates of -13.9%, 77.6%, 60.4%, and 35.2% [2]. - Earnings per share (in yuan) are expected to be 0.10 for 2023, 0.15 for 2024, 0.24 for 2025, and 0.32 for 2026 [2]. Business Model and Strategy - The company operates five main business segments: mother and baby product sales (86.55% of revenue), mother and baby services (3.55%), supplier services (6.92%), advertising (0.77%), and platform services (1.33%) [26]. - The "Three Expansions" strategy focuses on expanding product categories, market segments, and business formats, including the introduction of a full-age children's lifestyle store and the establishment of a joint venture with XinXuan for family e-commerce live retail [6][7][23]. - The company has successfully integrated AI into its operations, enhancing its digital capabilities and customer engagement [6][7][23]. Market and Industry Insights - The mother and baby retail market in China is projected to grow from 30 trillion yuan in 2018 to 89.15 trillion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.3% [47]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting birth rates and consumer spending, which are favorable for platform-based retail businesses in the mother and baby sector [6][7][47].

Investment Rating - The report highlights the attractiveness of high dividend assets in the transportation industry under a low interest rate environment, suggesting a positive investment outlook for this sector [3][16]. Core Insights - The low interest rate environment enhances the value of dividend asset allocation, with transportation sector dividend yields exceeding current government bond yields as of February 28, 2024 [3][16]. - Policy guidance is encouraging long-term funds, such as insurance capital, to enter the market, increasing demand for high dividend assets [32]. - There is a valuation differentiation in the market, favoring companies in the highway and port sectors with stable earnings and high dividend ratios [48]. Summary by Sections Low Interest Rate Environment and Dividend Asset Allocation - The report emphasizes the significance of high dividend assets in a low interest rate context, with highway yields around 2%, shipping at approximately 2.7%, and ports at about 1.5% as of February 2024 [3][16]. - The report notes that the demand for high dividend assets is expected to rise due to the low interest rate cycle, which has led to a sustained low yield on ten-year government bonds [32]. Fund Flow Analysis - The report indicates that the scale of dividend products has significantly increased, with dividend ETFs showing the highest growth [36]. - The report mentions that the inflow of dividend ETFs has a positive impact on the stock prices of high dividend stocks in the transportation sector [37]. High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists key companies in the transportation sector with predicted dividend yields exceeding 3%, including Ninghu Expressway, Gansu Expressway, and Daqin Railway, among others [49][62]. - It highlights that the transportation sector's dividend ratios still have room for improvement compared to other industries [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the CXO industry, indicating that it is in a phase of gradual recovery and is expected to experience rapid growth [3][60]. Core Insights - The report addresses three key questions regarding the CXO industry: whether demand is recovering, whether supply-side adjustments are effective, and the impact of AI [3]. - The overall adjustment in the CXO industry is deemed to be at an end, with valuations reflecting pessimistic expectations and stock price adjustments nearing completion [5][60]. - Demand is showing signs of recovery, supported by factors such as the cessation of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the expansion of global R&D pipelines, and a stabilization in healthcare financing [12][15][60]. - The integration of AI is expected to continue reducing costs and increasing efficiency in drug development, with AI potentially shortening the time to market by nearly 40% and reducing total drug costs to one-fourth of current levels [46][60]. Summary by Sections Historical Review - The report indicates that the CXO industry has undergone significant adjustments, with stock prices reflecting a full incorporation of negative market expectations [5][8]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors and regulatory changes on market sentiment, particularly regarding the U.S. biomanufacturing landscape [6][9]. Demand Recovery and Supply Adjustment - The report notes a steady increase in global R&D pipelines, with China’s pipeline growth outpacing that of the U.S. [15][16]. - Global healthcare investment activity is stabilizing after a downturn, with a slight increase in financing events compared to the previous year [18][21]. - The report emphasizes that major pharmaceutical companies are maintaining robust R&D spending, with the top 20 companies projected to spend approximately $168.56 billion in 2024, a 4.07% increase year-on-year [22][23]. - Domestic clinical project numbers and IND approvals are stabilizing, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity in drug development [25][26]. AI Integration - The report discusses the symbiotic relationship between AI and the CXO industry, emphasizing that AI enhances efficiency without replacing the need for traditional validation processes [58]. - AI is expected to address several pain points in drug development, including target identification, small molecule design, and safety assessments [43][44]. - The report outlines various business models emerging from the AI integration, including AI+SaaS, AI+CXO, and CXO+AI, highlighting the strategic moves of both domestic and international companies in this space [48][50][53]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as WuXi AppTec, Kanglong Chemical, and others, indicating a favorable investment outlook for these firms [60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Cathay Pacific Airways [1] Core Insights - Cathay Pacific Airways reported a net profit of HKD 9.607 billion for 2024, a 6% increase year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [6] - The airline's operating revenue for 2024 grew by 10.5% to HKD 104.371 billion, driven by increased capacity and strong air cargo demand [6] - The company plans to distribute a second interim dividend of HKD 0.49 per share, raising the overall dividend payout ratio to 46% for 2024 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Cathay Pacific Airways are as follows: - 2023: HKD 94.485 billion - 2024: HKD 104.371 billion - 2025E: HKD 109.011 billion - 2026E: HKD 114.937 billion - 2027E: HKD 120.286 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 85.1% for 2023, 10.5% for 2024, and 4.4% for 2025 [5] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: HKD 9.067 billion - 2024: HKD 9.607 billion - 2025E: HKD 9.008 billion - 2026E: HKD 10.248 billion - 2027E: HKD 10.702 billion - The net profit growth rates are -226.6% for 2023, 6.0% for 2024, and -6.2% for 2025 [5] - The report anticipates a slight decline in passenger kilometer yield for 2025, projecting a year-on-year decrease of 8% [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [15]. Core Insights - 2025 is anticipated to be the "year of acceleration" for intelligent driving technology, with significant consumer awareness and demand growth, particularly in the price segments of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan and above 400,000 yuan [5][6]. - The report highlights that both Seres and Xpeng Motors are leading in the high-end intelligent driving sector, benefiting from their technological maturity and user experience [5][6]. - The new vehicle cycles for both companies show promising product iterations and market performance, with Xpeng planning multiple model upgrades and new launches, while Seres has seen strong pre-sale orders for its flagship models [7][8]. - Robotics is identified as a key area for valuation expansion, with Xpeng's bionic robots already in production and Seres leveraging Huawei's technology for its robotics initiatives [8]. Summary by Sections Intelligent Driving Technology - The report emphasizes the growing consumer interest in intelligent driving features, particularly driven by BYD's market education efforts [5][6]. - Seres and Xpeng are positioned to benefit significantly from this trend due to their advanced technology and positive user feedback [5][6]. New Vehicle Cycles - Xpeng's upcoming models include the G6, G9, X9, and P7i, with the G6 featuring a 30% component refresh and comprehensive design upgrades [7]. - Seres has received over 11,300 pre-orders for its M9 and M8 models within the first hour of their pre-sale, indicating strong market demand [7]. Robotics Business - Xpeng is set to mass-produce L3 humanoid robots by 2026, aimed at complex industrial tasks, while Seres is advancing its robotics strategy with support from Huawei and local government initiatives [8]. - The report suggests that the combination of intelligent driving technology, new vehicle launches, and robotics will drive sales and performance growth for both companies in 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the AI2.0 era, focusing on generative AI and has strategically adjusted its business structure to enhance profitability [6][9] - The company has achieved significant revenue growth in generative AI, with a 255.70% year-on-year increase in revenue for this segment in the first half of 2024 [6][30] - The company is leveraging its large-scale AI infrastructure and advanced model capabilities to create competitive barriers in the market [6][9] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 45.6 billion, 61.1 billion, and 81.5 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 33.9%, 34.1%, and 33.4% [7][8] - The company anticipates a gradual narrowing of net losses from -42.0 billion RMB in 2024 to -19.9 billion RMB in 2026 [7][8] - The revenue for 2024 is expected to be driven primarily by generative AI, with traditional AI business continuing to shrink [7][8] Business Structure and Strategic Focus - The company has restructured its business into three main segments: generative AI, traditional AI, and smart automotive, with a clear focus on generative AI [6][23] - The generative AI segment's revenue share increased significantly from 20.62% in 2023H1 to 60.42% in 2024H1, indicating a successful business transformation [30][23] - The company has established a 1+X strategic framework, allowing for independent financing and development of various AI applications [6][40] Competitive Advantages - The company has built a robust AI infrastructure, with a total operational computing power exceeding 20,000 PetaFLOPS and over 54,000 GPUs deployed [6][51] - The company ranks third in the GenAI IaaS service market share, demonstrating its competitive position in the industry [6][56] - The rapid iteration of its large model, "日日新," has positioned the company to compete effectively against leading models like GPT-4 Turbo [6][61] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The demand for generative AI services is expected to continue growing, driven by advancements in AI applications across various sectors [6][47] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing need for AI infrastructure and services, particularly in the context of the ongoing digital transformation [6][57]

行 业 及 产 业 机械设备/ 轨交设备Ⅱ 2025 年 03 月 12 日 1-2 月铁路投资保持韧性，客流量 创同期新高 看好 ——轨交设备跟踪点评 事件： ⚫ 根据国铁集团数据，1-2 月全国铁路完成固定资产投资 685.4 亿元，同比增长 5.1%； 1-2 月全国铁路发送旅客 7.26 亿人次、同比增长 4.7％，创历史同期新高。 点评： 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 研究支持 何佳霖 (8621)23297818× hejl@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 评 证 资料来源：Wind，申万宏源研究 注：盈利预测均来自 Wind 一致预期，"/"表示未有机构覆盖 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the specific company. Core Insights - The African personal care market, particularly in hygiene products, is experiencing significant growth driven by population and penetration rate increases, with a projected market size of $5.2 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 8.0% from 2023 to 2028 [3][8] - The company, Leshu Shi, has established itself as a leader in the African hygiene products market, holding a 20.0% market share in baby diapers and a 14.0% share in sanitary napkins [3][22] - The company has a diversified product matrix covering baby diapers, pull-ups, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes, with a strong brand recognition and repurchase rate in the African market [3][46] Industry Overview - The African hygiene products market is projected to grow from $3.6 billion in 2023 to $5.2 billion in 2028, with a CAGR of 8.0% [3][8] - The penetration rates for baby diapers and sanitary napkins in Africa are currently at 22.7% and 30.8%, respectively, indicating substantial room for growth compared to more developed markets [3][12] - The competitive landscape shows that the top five companies in the African baby diaper market hold a combined market share of 62.7% [15] Company Overview - Leshu Shi was founded in 2009 and has focused on the African market, gradually expanding into Latin America and Central Asia [26][29] - The company reported a revenue of $4.11 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 28.6%, and an adjusted net profit of $0.65 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 251.7% [36] - The company has localized its production in Africa, with eight factories and 44 production lines, enhancing its supply chain efficiency [33][34] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was $3.34 billion, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of $0.75 billion, up 59.1% [36] - The gross margin improved to 35.4% in 2024 Q1-Q3, driven by a decrease in raw material costs [40][42] - The company’s product categories show that baby diapers accounted for 78.8% of total revenue in 2023, followed by sanitary napkins at 15.0% [37] Product Strategy - Leshu Shi has developed a rich brand matrix, including Softcare, Veesper, Maya, and Cuettie, targeting various consumer segments [46] - The company’s baby diaper brand Softcare has a recognition rate of 89.0% and a repurchase rate of 95.7% in the African market [46] - The sanitary napkin segment is also growing, with a projected CAGR of 10.7% from 2023 to 2028, indicating strong demand [19][56]