纺织服饰 2025 年 03 月 14 日 上 市 公 司 公 司 点 评 / 公 司 点 评 361 度 (01361) ——业绩表现超预期，分红率稳步提升 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 4.49 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8640.61 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 4.85/3.15 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 92.84 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -28% 22% 72% HSCEI 361度 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 | 货币单位：人民币 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（亿元） | 84.23 | 100. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Jiangnan Chemical, marking its first coverage [6][7]. Core Views - Jiangnan Chemical, a platform under the China Ordnance Industry Group, is positioned for long-term growth through both organic and external expansion. The company has a leading industrial explosive production capacity and is expected to benefit from increasing demand in Xinjiang due to coal production growth and opportunities from the Belt and Road Initiative [6][7][21]. - The report highlights a favorable outlook for the civil explosives industry, particularly in the western regions and along the Belt and Road, driven by safety, intelligence, centralization, and integration trends [6][7][40]. - Jiangnan Chemical's industrial explosive capacity is nearly 800,000 tons per year, with a significant presence in Xinjiang. The company is expected to continue benefiting from asset injections from the Ordnance Group and has a strong overseas market presence [6][7][26]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The projected total revenue for Jiangnan Chemical is 88.95 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8%. By 2026, revenue is expected to reach 139.47 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 32% [2]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 7.73 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant increase to 15.58 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% [2][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 0.29 yuan in 2023 to 0.59 yuan in 2026 [2][7]. Market Data - As of March 13, 2025, Jiangnan Chemical's closing price is 5.88 yuan, with a market capitalization of 15.575 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 20 in 2023, which is expected to decrease to around 13 by 2025, indicating a valuation below the average PE of comparable companies [2][7]. Industry Dynamics - The civil explosives industry is experiencing consolidation, with the top 10 companies expected to account for over 60% of the market by 2025. The report emphasizes the importance of mergers and acquisitions in enhancing industry concentration [6][56]. - The demand for civil explosives is expected to grow significantly in regions like Xinjiang, driven by coal production and infrastructure projects associated with the Belt and Road Initiative [6][40]. - The report notes that the industry is moving towards a service-oriented model, with an increasing focus on integrated blasting services and the use of digital technologies [6][50].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic mother and baby retail sector, focusing on AI integration and multi-line expansion strategies. It has maintained its position as the only representative from the mother and baby industry in the top 100 chain rankings for eight consecutive years [6][21]. - The company has a strong customer relationship management system and a direct sales model that has created a deep competitive moat. It operates over 1,000 stores nationwide and has a membership base of 90.7 million [6][7]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 9.79 billion, 10.84 billion, and 11.75 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 11.9%, 10.7%, and 8.3% [2][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected as follows: 8,753 for 2023, 9,790 for 2024, 10,841 for 2025, and 11,745 for 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 2.7%, 11.9%, 10.7%, and 8.3% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is forecasted to be 105 for 2023, 187 for 2024, 300 for 2025, and 405 for 2026, with growth rates of -13.9%, 77.6%, 60.4%, and 35.2% [2]. - Earnings per share (in yuan) are expected to be 0.10 for 2023, 0.15 for 2024, 0.24 for 2025, and 0.32 for 2026 [2]. Business Model and Strategy - The company operates five main business segments: mother and baby product sales (86.55% of revenue), mother and baby services (3.55%), supplier services (6.92%), advertising (0.77%), and platform services (1.33%) [26]. - The "Three Expansions" strategy focuses on expanding product categories, market segments, and business formats, including the introduction of a full-age children's lifestyle store and the establishment of a joint venture with XinXuan for family e-commerce live retail [6][7][23]. - The company has successfully integrated AI into its operations, enhancing its digital capabilities and customer engagement [6][7][23]. Market and Industry Insights - The mother and baby retail market in China is projected to grow from 30 trillion yuan in 2018 to 89.15 trillion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.3% [47]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting birth rates and consumer spending, which are favorable for platform-based retail businesses in the mother and baby sector [6][7][47].

投资案件 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 低利率环境下，红利资产配置价值突出。当前交运行业高股息板块股息率均高于当前 国债收益率，截至2024年2月28日，股息率-十年期国债收益率中，高速公路接近2%， 航运约2.7%，港口约1.5%，原材料供应链服务板块波动较大。 ◼ 资金面：政策引导险资等中长期资金入市，低利率环境下险资对高股息资产配置需求 提升；交运大市值标的在各红利指数中占比较高，红利ETF持续流入对股价有正向刺激。 ◼ 估值分化，市场愿意给予盈利稳定、分红比例高的高速、港口公司高估值。关注高速、 港口行业内现金充裕、盈利稳定、分红比例有望提升的标的及其他子行业内分红比例 高且盈利波动性逐步降低的公司，同时关注回购注销、股东增持等市值管理措施。公 路铁路预测股息率大于3%、利润增速稳定的公司：宁沪高速AH、赣粤高速、深高速 AH、大秦铁路、越秀交通基建、浙江沪杭甬、四川成渝AH、招商公路、中原高速、 粤高速A、福建高速、深圳国际、港铁公司；港口预测股息率大于3%、ROE及利润增 速稳定的公司：招商局港口、唐山港、盐田港、招商港口；航运预测股息率大于3%的 公司：中远海能A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the CXO industry, indicating that it is in a phase of gradual recovery and is expected to experience rapid growth [3][60]. Core Insights - The report addresses three key questions regarding the CXO industry: whether demand is recovering, whether supply-side adjustments are effective, and the impact of AI [3]. - The overall adjustment in the CXO industry is deemed to be at an end, with valuations reflecting pessimistic expectations and stock price adjustments nearing completion [5][60]. - Demand is showing signs of recovery, supported by factors such as the cessation of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the expansion of global R&D pipelines, and a stabilization in healthcare financing [12][15][60]. - The integration of AI is expected to continue reducing costs and increasing efficiency in drug development, with AI potentially shortening the time to market by nearly 40% and reducing total drug costs to one-fourth of current levels [46][60]. Summary by Sections Historical Review - The report indicates that the CXO industry has undergone significant adjustments, with stock prices reflecting a full incorporation of negative market expectations [5][8]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors and regulatory changes on market sentiment, particularly regarding the U.S. biomanufacturing landscape [6][9]. Demand Recovery and Supply Adjustment - The report notes a steady increase in global R&D pipelines, with China’s pipeline growth outpacing that of the U.S. [15][16]. - Global healthcare investment activity is stabilizing after a downturn, with a slight increase in financing events compared to the previous year [18][21]. - The report emphasizes that major pharmaceutical companies are maintaining robust R&D spending, with the top 20 companies projected to spend approximately $168.56 billion in 2024, a 4.07% increase year-on-year [22][23]. - Domestic clinical project numbers and IND approvals are stabilizing, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity in drug development [25][26]. AI Integration - The report discusses the symbiotic relationship between AI and the CXO industry, emphasizing that AI enhances efficiency without replacing the need for traditional validation processes [58]. - AI is expected to address several pain points in drug development, including target identification, small molecule design, and safety assessments [43][44]. - The report outlines various business models emerging from the AI integration, including AI+SaaS, AI+CXO, and CXO+AI, highlighting the strategic moves of both domestic and international companies in this space [48][50][53]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as WuXi AppTec, Kanglong Chemical, and others, indicating a favorable investment outlook for these firms [60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Cathay Pacific Airways [1] Core Insights - Cathay Pacific Airways reported a net profit of HKD 9.607 billion for 2024, a 6% increase year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [6] - The airline's operating revenue for 2024 grew by 10.5% to HKD 104.371 billion, driven by increased capacity and strong air cargo demand [6] - The company plans to distribute a second interim dividend of HKD 0.49 per share, raising the overall dividend payout ratio to 46% for 2024 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Cathay Pacific Airways are as follows: - 2023: HKD 94.485 billion - 2024: HKD 104.371 billion - 2025E: HKD 109.011 billion - 2026E: HKD 114.937 billion - 2027E: HKD 120.286 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 85.1% for 2023, 10.5% for 2024, and 4.4% for 2025 [5] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: HKD 9.067 billion - 2024: HKD 9.607 billion - 2025E: HKD 9.008 billion - 2026E: HKD 10.248 billion - 2027E: HKD 10.702 billion - The net profit growth rates are -226.6% for 2023, 6.0% for 2024, and -6.2% for 2025 [5] - The report anticipates a slight decline in passenger kilometer yield for 2025, projecting a year-on-year decrease of 8% [6]

2025 年 03 月 13 日 赛力斯、小鹏汽车更新 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W097） 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 (8621)23297818× zhufz@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 评 汽车 ⚫ 2025 年被视为智能驾驶（智驾）技术加速渗透的"元年"。比亚迪通过技术推广与市场 教育显著提升了消费者对智驾功能的认知，尤其在 10-20 万元及 40 万元以上价格段的 用户中，智驾配置的关注度持续攀升。在这一趋势下，赛力斯与小鹏汽车凭借其高阶智 驾技术的成熟度与用户口碑，稳居国内第一梯队。尽管吉利、奇瑞等车企正加速布局智 驾赛道，但赛力斯与小鹏在技术落地效果与实际用户体验上仍具明显优势，预计将在今 年的智驾配套行情中深度受益。 ⚫ 从新车周期来看，两家车企的产品迭代与市场表现同样亮眼。小鹏汽车今年计 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the AI2.0 era, focusing on generative AI and has strategically adjusted its business structure to enhance profitability [6][9] - The company has achieved significant revenue growth in generative AI, with a 255.70% year-on-year increase in revenue for this segment in the first half of 2024 [6][30] - The company is leveraging its large-scale AI infrastructure and advanced model capabilities to create competitive barriers in the market [6][9] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 45.6 billion, 61.1 billion, and 81.5 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 33.9%, 34.1%, and 33.4% [7][8] - The company anticipates a gradual narrowing of net losses from -42.0 billion RMB in 2024 to -19.9 billion RMB in 2026 [7][8] - The revenue for 2024 is expected to be driven primarily by generative AI, with traditional AI business continuing to shrink [7][8] Business Structure and Strategic Focus - The company has restructured its business into three main segments: generative AI, traditional AI, and smart automotive, with a clear focus on generative AI [6][23] - The generative AI segment's revenue share increased significantly from 20.62% in 2023H1 to 60.42% in 2024H1, indicating a successful business transformation [30][23] - The company has established a 1+X strategic framework, allowing for independent financing and development of various AI applications [6][40] Competitive Advantages - The company has built a robust AI infrastructure, with a total operational computing power exceeding 20,000 PetaFLOPS and over 54,000 GPUs deployed [6][51] - The company ranks third in the GenAI IaaS service market share, demonstrating its competitive position in the industry [6][56] - The rapid iteration of its large model, "日日新," has positioned the company to compete effectively against leading models like GPT-4 Turbo [6][61] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The demand for generative AI services is expected to continue growing, driven by advancements in AI applications across various sectors [6][47] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing need for AI infrastructure and services, particularly in the context of the ongoing digital transformation [6][57]

行 业 及 产 业 机械设备/ 轨交设备Ⅱ 2025 年 03 月 12 日 1-2 月铁路投资保持韧性，客流量 创同期新高 看好 ——轨交设备跟踪点评 事件： ⚫ 根据国铁集团数据，1-2 月全国铁路完成固定资产投资 685.4 亿元，同比增长 5.1%； 1-2 月全国铁路发送旅客 7.26 亿人次、同比增长 4.7％，创历史同期新高。 点评： 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 研究支持 何佳霖 (8621)23297818× hejl@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 评 证 资料来源：Wind，申万宏源研究 注：盈利预测均来自 Wind 一致预期，"/"表示未有机构覆盖 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 从乐舒适招股书看非洲个护市场星辰大海 ——个护行业研究深度 证券分析师：屠亦婷 A0230512080003 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 2025.3.12 乐舒适深耕个护行业，出海逐浪非洲等新兴市场星辰大海 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 资料来源：乐舒适招股书，弗若斯特沙利文报告，申万宏源研究 ◼ 行业：非洲等新兴市场卫生用品规模增速可观。1）市场规模：2023年非洲卫生用品（婴儿纸尿裤+拉拉裤+ 卫生巾）市场规模为36亿美元，在人口红利、渗透率提升红利（2023年非洲婴儿纸尿裤及拉拉裤渗透率为 22.7%、卫生巾渗透率为30.8%）等驱动下，预计2028年市场规模将达52亿美元，2023-2028年CAGR为 8.0%；预计2023-2028年拉丁美洲、中亚卫生用品市场规模CAGR分别为3.1%、5.0%。2）竞争格局：非洲 婴儿纸尿裤销量CR5为62.7%，乐舒适位列第一，份额为20.0%；非洲卫生巾销量CR5为37.9%，乐舒适位 列第一，份额为14.0% ◼ 乐舒适：深耕非洲卫生用品，逐步拓展其他新兴市场；搭建丰富品牌矩阵；产能本地化布局 ...