Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Overweight" indicating an expectation of outperforming the overall market [2][32]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic coal prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels and a seasonal decline in demand, but a reduction in imports is expected to support prices [2][20]. - The report emphasizes that while thermal coal prices have decreased, coking coal prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rebound as demand increases with the arrival of the peak season [2][10]. - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, which are characterized by stable operations and high dividends [2][26]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - Indonesia is considering increasing mining royalties for coal, nickel, and copper, which could impact coal supply dynamics [9]. - A joint initiative by Chinese coal associations aims to control the import of low-quality coal to maintain market balance [9]. Price Trends - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown a slight increase in some regions, while the overall price index remains stable [10]. - International coal prices have fluctuated, with Indonesian coal prices increasing slightly, while Australian and South African prices have decreased [11]. Inventory and Supply Chain - The average daily coal inflow and outflow at the Bohai Rim ports have increased, with total inventory decreasing slightly [20]. - Coastal shipping rates have risen significantly, indicating potential cost pressures in the supply chain [23]. Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities [26].

一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 03-14 04-14 05-14 06-14 07-14 08-14 09-14 10-14 11-14 12-14 01-14 02-14 03-14 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 亚钾国际 沪深300指数 (收益率) 上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 03 月 16 日 亚钾国际 (000893) ——汇能助力公司长期发展，钾肥 Q1 景气明显回升 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 26.38 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 26.43/13.65 | | 市净率 | 2.1 | | 息率（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 21,413 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,419.56/10,978.30 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 12.56 | | 资产负债率% | 25 ...

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 16 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 《 消费政策催化 估值持续修复——食品 饮料行业周报 20250310—20250314》 2025/03/15 《 政策重视消费 估值持续修复——食品 饮料行业周报 20250303—20250307》 2025/03/08 《不破不立—2025 年食品饮料行业投资策 略》 2024/12/13 证券分析师 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 评 证 券 研 研究支持 王栗晴 A0230123110002 wanglq@swsresearch.com 联系人 王栗晴 (8621)23297818× wanglq@swsresearch.com 看好 ——2025 春糖会白酒渠道反馈 本期投资提示： 究 报 告 短期基本面寻底 中期验证改善 ⚫ 投资分析意见：白酒行业在春节后逐步进入淡季，基本面尚未出现明显改善，行业仍处调整期，进 ...

轻工制造 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《从乐舒适招股书看非洲个护市场星辰大 海——个护行业深度》 2025/03/12 《供需格局延续改善，中长期盈利向上- 2025 年春季造纸行业投资策略》 2025/03/10 《家居行业 2025 年度策略：家居板块政 策受益，Beta 和 Alpha 共振》 2024/12/18 证券分析师 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁智艳 (8621)23297818× dingzy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 03 月 16 日 鼓励生育催化母婴类个股，提振内 需关注 ...

联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 农林牧渔 2025 年 03 月 16 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 聚焦景气，布局反转，关注宠物食品与养殖板块 看好 ——农林牧渔周观点（2025.03.10 -2025.03.16） 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 评 证券分析师 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 2.8%，沪深 300 上涨 1.6%。个股涨幅前三名：雪榕生物（44.0%）、 平潭发展（16.8%）、中基健康（13.1%）；跌幅前三名：正虹科技（-3.7%）、华资实业（-3.6%）、 万辰集团（-2.8%）。 ⚫ 投资分析意见：聚焦景气，布 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 8.182 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 392 million, which is a significant increase of 43% [3][5] - The manufacturing segment is operating at full capacity, with a revenue increase of 11.1% to USD 5.62 billion in 2024, driven by a recovery in the footwear market and improved production efficiency [3][5] - The retail segment experienced a decline in revenue by 8% to RMB 18.45 billion, primarily due to reduced foot traffic and store adjustments, although online sales grew by 16% [3][5] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: USD 7.890 billion - 2024: USD 8.182 billion - 2025E: USD 8.654 billion - 2026E: USD 9.082 billion - 2027E: USD 9.464 billion - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2023: USD 275 million - 2024: USD 392 million - 2025E: USD 489 million - 2026E: USD 546 million - 2027E: USD 592 million [3][12] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 10 in 2023 to 5 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][12] Operational Efficiency - The manufacturing business achieved a gross margin increase to 19.9%, up by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, due to enhanced capacity utilization and operational efficiency [3][5] - Inventory turnover days for the manufacturing segment decreased to 51 days, indicating improved inventory management [3][5] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.9 per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of approximately HKD 1.3 per share, with a payout ratio of 69% and a dividend yield of around 10% [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (零跑汽车) [1] Core Insights - Leap Motor's total sales for 2024 reached 293,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 103.8%, with total revenue of 32.16 billion yuan, up 92.0% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 8.4%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the net loss was reduced to 2.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4 billion yuan year-on-year [4][5] - The B10 model, which is Leap Motor's first intelligent vehicle, has a pre-sale price range of 109,800 to 139,800 yuan, and is expected to significantly boost sales with its competitive features [4] - The company is expected to further improve its gross margin to over 10% in 2025, driven by scale effects, product structure optimization, and cost reductions [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2024, the company forecasts total revenue of 32.16 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 92%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 57.01 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 77% [5] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 98 million yuan, with a significant turnaround from previous losses, and is expected to grow to 3.12 billion yuan by 2027 [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.07 yuan in 2025, turning positive for the first time [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (01299) [2] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in OPAT of 12% per share, exceeding targets, and announced a new share buyback plan of $1.6 billion [5][6] - The company's NBV growth rate is in line with expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 18% to $4.712 billion [5] - The report highlights a robust performance in investment returns, with total investment assets increasing by 8.2% year-on-year to $255.3 billion [8] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a year-on-year increase in OPAT of 7% to $6.605 billion, with a significant rise in net profit attributable to shareholders of 81.6% to $6.836 billion [5][10] - The expected net profit for 2025-2027 is revised upwards to $7.774 billion, $8.434 billion, and $8.949 billion respectively [8] - The report indicates a total investment return of 4.8% for equity assets and 4.3% for fixed income assets, remaining stable year-on-year [8] Market Segment Analysis - In the Hong Kong market, NBV increased by 23% to $1.764 billion, with strong growth in agent and partner distribution channels [11] - In mainland China, NBV grew by 20% to $1.217 billion, supported by the establishment of four new branches [11] - Southeast Asia markets showed positive growth, with Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia reporting year-on-year increases in NBV of 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes optimism towards domestic AI and IP derivatives as two main investment themes, highlighting the ongoing innovation in AI applications and the potential for consumer recovery driven by government policies [4][2]. - The report suggests that the domestic large model innovation and AI application explosion is just beginning, contrasting it with the two-year trend observed in the US market [4]. - Key recommendations include companies like Alibaba, Kingsoft, Tencent, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, and Cloud Music in the cloud computing and AI application sectors, while also highlighting the rise of domestic IP derivatives with companies like Pop Mart and Alibaba Pictures [4]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - Significant advancements in AI gaming and hardware are noted, with companies like Anuttacon developing AI-driven games and partnerships forming to provide AI lifestyle solutions for families [4]. - The report identifies key players in AI gaming such as Giant Network and Kaein Network, and in AI hardware, it mentions Kid King and Volcano Engine [4]. Domestic IP Derivatives - The rise of domestic IP derivatives is highlighted as a core investment theme, with a shift from manufacturing to product and user-centric thinking among companies [4]. - The report points out the increasing global influence of domestic IP, citing successful works like "Nezha 2" and "Black Myth: Wukong" [4]. Advertising and Media - The report indicates that companies like Focus Media have a safety margin, with short-term attention on consumer recovery and long-term focus on new advertising demands driven by AI applications [4]. - The report also provides a valuation table for key companies, detailing their market capitalization, revenue, and profit forecasts for 2023 to 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, with specific recommendations for high dividend yield companies such as China National Petroleum and CNOOC [2][14]. Core Viewpoints - OPEC's cautious production increase is expected to have a limited impact on output, while the EIA maintains its oil price forecast for 2025 at an average of $74 per barrel [2][3]. - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1 million barrels per day in 2025, with Asia contributing approximately 60% of this growth [4][43]. - The EIA has adjusted its global oil supply forecast downward, predicting a supply surplus of about 40,000 barrels per day this year [12][43]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of March 14, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $70.58 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.31% [19]. - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose by 1.45 million barrels to 435 million barrels, which is 5% lower than the five-year average [23]. - The report indicates a widening supply-demand trend for crude oil, with expectations of downward price pressure, but a medium to high price range is anticipated due to OPEC's production cuts and shale oil cost support [2][19]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $11.64 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread increased to $23.07 per barrel [2]. - The report suggests that refining profitability has improved due to oil price corrections, although domestic refining product margins remain under pressure [2]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, while polyester filament profitability has decreased, indicating mixed performance within the polyester supply chain [2]. - The report highlights the need to monitor demand changes, with expectations of gradual improvement in the industry as new capacities come online [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high dividend yield stocks such as China National Petroleum and CNOOC, and maintains a positive outlook on offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Offshore Engineering [14]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in ethylene production from ethane, recommending companies like Satellite Chemical for expansion projects [14]. - The polyester sector is expected to tighten supply-demand dynamics, with recommendations for quality companies in the filament and bottle-grade sectors [14].