证 券 分 析 师 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 2025 年 03 月 16 日 进口预计收缩，将托底淡季煤价 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.3.10 -2025.3.14） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 3 月 14 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口动力煤现货价收报 681 元/吨，环比上周下跌 7 元/吨，同比跌 192 元/吨。供给端，由于港口库存高、产地发 运至港口成本倒挂，港口调入量为历史低位水平，据中国煤炭市场网，截至 3 月 14 日，环渤海四港区当周日均调入量 181.51 万吨，环比上周增长 0.24 万吨，同比 24 年、23 年降 2.49%、8.12%。煤价持续下跌、跌至部分煤矿的成本线，坑口挺价意愿强 烈，预计产量将有所收缩。进口端，印尼斋月及雨季将减少产量，进口煤性价比下降； 煤炭工业协会倡议严格控制低卡劣质煤炭进口和使用，预计进口量将环比下降。需求 端，由于电厂有效去库、叠加南方寒冷天气反复，港口调出量增长。据中国煤炭市场 网，截至 3 月 14 日，环渤海四港区当周日均调出量 188.83 万吨，环比上周上涨 45.3 万吨，涨幅 31.56%；库存 3114.8 万吨，环比 ...

一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 03-14 04-14 05-14 06-14 07-14 08-14 09-14 10-14 11-14 12-14 01-14 02-14 03-14 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 亚钾国际 沪深300指数 (收益率) 上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 03 月 16 日 亚钾国际 (000893) ——汇能助力公司长期发展，钾肥 Q1 景气明显回升 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 26.38 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 26.43/13.65 | | 市净率 | 2.1 | | 息率（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 21,413 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,419.56/10,978.30 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 12.56 | | 资产负债率% | 25 ...

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 16 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 《 消费政策催化 估值持续修复——食品 饮料行业周报 20250310—20250314》 2025/03/15 《 政策重视消费 估值持续修复——食品 饮料行业周报 20250303—20250307》 2025/03/08 《不破不立—2025 年食品饮料行业投资策 略》 2024/12/13 证券分析师 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 评 证 券 研 研究支持 王栗晴 A0230123110002 wanglq@swsresearch.com 联系人 王栗晴 (8621)23297818× wanglq@swsresearch.com 看好 ——2025 春糖会白酒渠道反馈 本期投资提示： 究 报 告 短期基本面寻底 中期验证改善 ⚫ 投资分析意见：白酒行业在春节后逐步进入淡季，基本面尚未出现明显改善，行业仍处调整期，进 ...

轻工制造 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《从乐舒适招股书看非洲个护市场星辰大 海——个护行业深度》 2025/03/12 《供需格局延续改善，中长期盈利向上- 2025 年春季造纸行业投资策略》 2025/03/10 《家居行业 2025 年度策略：家居板块政 策受益，Beta 和 Alpha 共振》 2024/12/18 证券分析师 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁智艳 (8621)23297818× dingzy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 03 月 16 日 鼓励生育催化母婴类个股，提振内 需关注 ...

联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 农林牧渔 2025 年 03 月 16 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 聚焦景气，布局反转，关注宠物食品与养殖板块 看好 ——农林牧渔周观点（2025.03.10 -2025.03.16） 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 评 证券分析师 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 2.8%，沪深 300 上涨 1.6%。个股涨幅前三名：雪榕生物（44.0%）、 平潭发展（16.8%）、中基健康（13.1%）；跌幅前三名：正虹科技（-3.7%）、华资实业（-3.6%）、 万辰集团（-2.8%）。 ⚫ 投资分析意见：聚焦景气，布 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 8.182 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 392 million, which is a significant increase of 43% [3][5] - The manufacturing segment is operating at full capacity, with a revenue increase of 11.1% to USD 5.62 billion in 2024, driven by a recovery in the footwear market and improved production efficiency [3][5] - The retail segment experienced a decline in revenue by 8% to RMB 18.45 billion, primarily due to reduced foot traffic and store adjustments, although online sales grew by 16% [3][5] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: USD 7.890 billion - 2024: USD 8.182 billion - 2025E: USD 8.654 billion - 2026E: USD 9.082 billion - 2027E: USD 9.464 billion - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2023: USD 275 million - 2024: USD 392 million - 2025E: USD 489 million - 2026E: USD 546 million - 2027E: USD 592 million [3][12] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 10 in 2023 to 5 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][12] Operational Efficiency - The manufacturing business achieved a gross margin increase to 19.9%, up by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, due to enhanced capacity utilization and operational efficiency [3][5] - Inventory turnover days for the manufacturing segment decreased to 51 days, indicating improved inventory management [3][5] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.9 per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of approximately HKD 1.3 per share, with a payout ratio of 69% and a dividend yield of around 10% [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (零跑汽车) [1] Core Insights - Leap Motor's total sales for 2024 reached 293,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 103.8%, with total revenue of 32.16 billion yuan, up 92.0% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 8.4%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the net loss was reduced to 2.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4 billion yuan year-on-year [4][5] - The B10 model, which is Leap Motor's first intelligent vehicle, has a pre-sale price range of 109,800 to 139,800 yuan, and is expected to significantly boost sales with its competitive features [4] - The company is expected to further improve its gross margin to over 10% in 2025, driven by scale effects, product structure optimization, and cost reductions [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2024, the company forecasts total revenue of 32.16 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 92%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 57.01 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 77% [5] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 98 million yuan, with a significant turnaround from previous losses, and is expected to grow to 3.12 billion yuan by 2027 [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.07 yuan in 2025, turning positive for the first time [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (01299) [2] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in OPAT of 12% per share, exceeding targets, and announced a new share buyback plan of $1.6 billion [5][6] - The company's NBV growth rate is in line with expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 18% to $4.712 billion [5] - The report highlights a robust performance in investment returns, with total investment assets increasing by 8.2% year-on-year to $255.3 billion [8] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a year-on-year increase in OPAT of 7% to $6.605 billion, with a significant rise in net profit attributable to shareholders of 81.6% to $6.836 billion [5][10] - The expected net profit for 2025-2027 is revised upwards to $7.774 billion, $8.434 billion, and $8.949 billion respectively [8] - The report indicates a total investment return of 4.8% for equity assets and 4.3% for fixed income assets, remaining stable year-on-year [8] Market Segment Analysis - In the Hong Kong market, NBV increased by 23% to $1.764 billion, with strong growth in agent and partner distribution channels [11] - In mainland China, NBV grew by 20% to $1.217 billion, supported by the establishment of four new branches [11] - Southeast Asia markets showed positive growth, with Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia reporting year-on-year increases in NBV of 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively [11]

业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 传媒 研究支持 黄俊儒 A0230123070011 huangjr@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 (8621)23297818× linqx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 03 月 16 日 港股财报季来临，继续看好国产 AI 和 IP 衍生品两大主线 看好 ——互联网传媒周报 - ⚫ 港股互联网 AI 重估之外，重点关注消费复苏可能性。经历 2 月快速上涨，3 月以来恒科 板块盘整，市场疑虑中美互联网估值差初步收敛 ...

行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 03 月 16 日 预计 OPEC 谨慎增产对产量提升影 响有限，EIA 维持今年油价预测 看好 ——石油化工行业周报(2025/3/10—2025/3/16) 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 预计 OPEC 谨慎增产对产量提升影响有限，EIA 维持今年油价预测。价格端来看，EIA 分别维持和上调今年原油与天然气价格预测：EIA 预计 2025、2026 年原油均价为 74、 68 美元/桶；EIA 预计 2025、2026 年美国天然气均价为 4.2、4.5 美元/百万英热。需求 端来看， EIA 和 ...