Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company released its 2024 performance forecast, with expected net profit attributable to the parent company of 12.4~13.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77~85% [4] - In 2024Q4, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.0~2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0~28%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 40~22% [4] - The company's sales volume in 2024 was 1.23 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with 380,000 units sold in Q4, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29% [4] - The company's export sales in 2024 reached 450,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 43%, accounting for 37% of total sales, up 11 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The Tank brand sold 230,000 units in 2024, accounting for 19% of total sales, up 6 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company's domestic and overseas markets are expected to drive significant sales growth in 2025, with domestic sales projected to reach 1.13 million units, a year-on-year increase of 46%, and overseas sales expected to reach 550,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company's operating revenue in 2024 is expected to reach 193.085 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be 12.477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.7% [5] - The company's operating revenue in 2025 is expected to reach 243.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be 15.692 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.8% [5] - The company's operating revenue in 2026 is expected to reach 286.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be 18.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7% [5] - The company's gross profit margin in 2024 is expected to be 20.5%, with ROE expected to be 15.5% [5] - The company's EPS in 2024 is expected to be 1.46 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 17 [5] Sales and Product Performance - The company's sales structure has been optimized, with the export proportion increasing to 37% in 2024, up 11 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The Tank brand's sales in 2024 accounted for 19% of total sales, up 6 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The Haval brand achieved sales of 230,000 units in Q4 2024, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36%, while the Wey brand achieved sales of 22,000 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 78% [7] - The company's product competitiveness has significantly improved after model updates, with the Blue Mountain and Menglong models showing rapid sales growth after updates [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to launch multiple new models and updates in 2025, driving domestic sales growth to 1.13 million units, a year-on-year increase of 46% [7] - The company's overseas sales are expected to reach 550,000 units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20%, supported by the upcoming production at the Brazil factory and the launch of multiple models overseas [7] - The company's profitability is expected to continue to improve, with net profit attributable to the parent company projected to reach 15.692 billion yuan in 2025 and 18.622 billion yuan in 2026 [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Active Participation" rating for the company's IPO [24] Core Views - The company specializes in home appliance structural components and has established long-term partnerships with major clients such as Midea and Haier [7] - Revenue and net profit have shown rapid growth, with a 3-year CAGR of +36.38% and +37.88% respectively [8] - The company has advanced production capabilities, including self-developed mold manufacturing technology, which allows it to meet diverse and non-standardized customer needs [7] - The IPO is priced at 5.57 yuan per share, with a PE(TTM) of 10x, significantly lower than the median PE(TTM) of 36x for comparable companies [13][14] - The home appliance market is expanding into rural areas, and the demand for higher energy efficiency in air conditioners is expected to drive growth for the company's products [16] Summary by Sections 1. Specialization in Home Appliance Structural Components - The company is a core supplier for international brands like Midea and Haier, specializing in air conditioner structural components, heat exchangers, and display structural components [7] - It has a strong reputation, having received multiple awards from its major clients, and possesses advanced mold manufacturing technologies [7] 2. IPO Details - The IPO involves an initial issuance of 20 million shares, accounting for 20% of the post-issuance total shares (before over-allotment) [13] - The expected fundraising amount is 111 million yuan, with a post-issuance market capitalization of 668 million yuan [13] - The IPO price is set at 5.57 yuan per share, with a PE(TTM) of 10x, which is lower than the industry median [14] 3. Industry Trends - The home appliance market is experiencing growth in rural areas, with rural households owning 105.7 air conditioners per 100 households in 2023, a 254.70% increase from 2013 [16] - New energy efficiency standards for air conditioners are expected to drive demand for higher-efficiency products, benefiting the company's structural components [16] 4. Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from strong customer relationships, geographical proximity to major white goods manufacturers in Wuhan, and efficient production management [17] - Its ability to meet high-quality and timely delivery requirements is a key competitive advantage [17] 5. Comparable Companies - The company's revenue structure is comparable to peers, with a focus on air conditioner structural components (34.91%), heat exchangers (34.58%), and display structural components (20.42%) [22] - Its financial performance, including a 33.09% gross margin and 7.93% R&D expenditure ratio, is competitive within the industry [23] 6. IPO Analysis - The low IPO price and valuation, combined with strong fundamentals and industry growth potential, make the IPO attractive for investors [24]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a **"Overweight"** rating on the non-bank financial and securities industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1] Core Views - The **"Regulations on Standardizing Intermediary Services for Public Stock Offerings"** (referred to as the "Regulations") aims to strengthen the supervision of intermediary fee structures and ensure intermediaries act as effective gatekeepers, reducing financial fraud and fraudulent issuance risks [2] - The Regulations introduce two key measures: 1) Prohibiting intermediary fees from being tied to IPO outcomes, which reduces conflicts of interest between intermediaries and issuers [2] 2) Banning local governments from offering rewards based on IPO outcomes, which is expected to curb regional competition for listed companies and reduce fiscal burdens [4] - The Regulations are expected to improve the overall quality of IPO assets by encouraging more objective assessments of issuers' financial health and reducing the incentive for intermediaries to conceal issues [2] IPO Fee Structure Analysis - Historically, investment banks charged higher fees for oversubscribed IPOs, leading to potential conflicts of interest - From 2019 to 2025, 28.3% of A-share IPOs were oversubscribed, with an average underwriting fee of 5.83%, 0.50 percentage points higher than the overall average [3] - The STAR Market (科创板) had the highest number of oversubscribed IPOs (289), with an average fundraising size of 17.6 billion yuan, 27% higher than the overall market average [3] - Main Board oversubscribed IPOs had significantly higher fees (5.25%) compared to the average (3.84%) [3] - The new Regulations impose stricter controls on IPO fees, including: 1) Prohibiting fee increases based on fundraising size [3] 2) Banning fee adjustments across different business lines [3] - These changes are expected to reduce IPO financing costs and improve pricing fairness [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on securities firms with strong market positions and potential for mergers and acquisitions, including **Guotai Junan, Zheshang Securities, and Guolian Securities** [4] - Top-tier securities firms such as **CITIC Securities, GF Securities, China Galaxy, China Merchants Securities, and CICC** are also highlighted as key investment targets [4] IPO Oversubscription Data (2019-2025) - **A-share Market**: - Total IPOs: 2001 - Oversubscribed IPOs: 567 (28.3%) - Average fundraising size: 14.80 billion yuan - Average underwriting fee: 5.83% [5] - **Main Board**: - Oversubscribed IPOs: 18 (3.6%) - Average underwriting fee: 5.25% [5] - **STAR Market**: - Oversubscribed IPOs: 289 (49.6%) - Average fundraising size: 17.57 billion yuan [5] - **ChiNext**: - Oversubscribed IPOs: 243 (37.0%) - Average underwriting fee: 6.52% [5] - **Beijing Stock Exchange**: - Oversubscribed IPOs: 17 - Average underwriting fee: 6.17% [5]

Industry Investment Rating - The transportation industry, particularly high-dividend sectors like highways and ports, is expected to benefit from the decline in the 10-year government bond yield [3][6][14] Core Views - The 10-year government bond yield has been declining, which is favorable for high-dividend stocks in the transportation sector [3][6] - The dividend yields of high-dividend sectors in transportation, such as highways and ports, are higher than the current government bond yield [3][14] - The market is willing to assign higher valuations to companies with stable earnings and high dividend payout ratios, particularly in the highway and port sectors [3][14] - The inflow of funds into dividend-focused ETFs has a positive impact on the stock prices of high-dividend transportation companies [3][25][32] Sector and Key Stocks Analysis Highways and Railways - Companies with predicted dividend yields greater than 3% and stable profit growth include Ninghu Expressway AH, Ganyue Expressway, Shenzhen Expressway AH, Daqin Railway, and others [3][40] - The dividend yields of these companies are generally higher than the 10-year government bond yield, making them attractive for investors seeking stable income [3][14] Ports - Companies with predicted dividend yields greater than 3%, stable ROE, and profit growth include China Merchants Port, Tangshan Port, Shanghai Port, and others [3][53] - Ports with strong cash flow and stable profitability are favored by the market, especially those with potential for increased dividend payouts [3][53] Shipping - Companies with predicted dividend yields greater than 3% include COSCO SHIPPING Energy AH, Zhonggu Logistics, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings AH, and others [3][62] - The shipping sector, while offering high dividends, is subject to greater volatility due to fluctuating market conditions [3][62] Other High-Dividend Stocks in Transportation - Companies with predicted dividend yields greater than 3% include Xiamen C&D, COSCO SHIPPING International, Xiamen ITG, and others [3][66] - These companies are spread across various sub-sectors within transportation, offering diversified investment opportunities [3][66] Market Trends and Performance - The transportation sector's high-dividend stocks have shown better performance compared to other industries, particularly in December [19][22] - The dividend-focused ETFs have seen significant growth, with low-volatility dividend ETFs being particularly popular [25][28] - The transportation sector's high-dividend stocks are closely aligned with the performance of dividend indices, indicating a strong correlation [32] Dividend and Share Repurchase Trends - Companies in the transportation sector have been actively engaging in dividend payouts and share repurchases as part of their market value management strategies [68][74] - The total amount of dividends and share repurchases in the transportation sector has been significant, with some companies allocating a substantial portion of their market value to these activities [75]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1][6] Core Views - The company is undergoing strategic and operational transformation, which is expected to bring long-term performance improvement despite short-term challenges [6] - Store optimization and transformation are progressing rapidly, with significant improvements in customer traffic and sales in optimized stores [6] - The company plans to continue store optimization and strategic transformation in 2025, aiming to optimize over 100 stores and enhance commercial cooperation with MINISO [6] - Despite short-term pressure on performance, the long-term outlook is positive due to improved customer traffic, sales, and supply chain efficiency [6] Financial Summary - 2024 estimated operating revenue: 67,308 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 14.4% [5][6] - 2025 estimated operating revenue: 74,922 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [5][6] - 2026 estimated operating revenue: 84,645 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [5][6] - 2024 estimated net profit attributable to the parent company: -1,404 million RMB [5][6] - 2025 estimated net profit attributable to the parent company: 84 million RMB [5][6] - 2026 estimated net profit attributable to the parent company: 582 million RMB [5][6] Store Optimization Progress - Closed over 200 underperforming stores in 2024, reducing the total number of stores from 1,000 at the end of 2023 to 773 by January 15, 2025 [6] - Completed optimization of 31 stores, with 39 optimized stores operating nationwide by January 15, 2025 [6] - Optimized stores have shown significant improvements, with daily sales exceeding 1 million RMB in the first 1-3 days after opening [6] - Plans to optimize over 100 stores in 2025, with further optimization plans to be announced in the first half of the year [6] Market Performance - Closing price on January 16, 2025: 5.80 RMB [1] - Price-to-book ratio: 9.1 [1] - Market capitalization: 52,635 million RMB [1] - Stock performance over the past year: -50% to 150% compared to the CSI 300 index [3]

上 市 公 司 商贸零售 2025 年 01 月 16 日 重庆百货 (600729) ——Q4 零售主业利润回暖，马消持续贡献投资收益增量 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 01 月 15 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 28.54 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 34.30/16.91 | | 市净率 | 1.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 4.75 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 5,378 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,227.12/10,060.13 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 16.12 | | 资产负债率% | 62.73 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 441/188 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 01-15 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Industrial Bank (601166) [1] Core Views - Industrial Bank's performance in 2024 showed a recovery in growth, with revenue increasing by 0.7% YoY to RMB 212.2 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 0.1% YoY to RMB 77.2 billion [4] - The bank's asset quality remained stable, with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreasing by 1bp QoQ to 1.07% and the provision coverage ratio increasing by 4.2pct QoQ to 237.8% [4] - The bank's performance exceeded expectations, with management focusing on stabilizing performance and optimizing structure [5][8] Financial Performance and Forecast - Industrial Bank's operating income for 2024 is expected to reach RMB 212.2 billion, with a YoY growth of 0.7% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow by 0.1% YoY to RMB 77.2 billion in 2024, with further growth expected in 2025 and 2026 at 0.9% and 3.8% respectively [7][8] - The bank's loan growth slowed to 5.1% in 4Q24, while deposit growth accelerated to 7.7%, providing room for optimizing liability structure and reducing costs [8] Asset Quality and Strategy - Industrial Bank's asset quality remained stable, with the NPL ratio at 1.07% and provision coverage ratio at 237.8% in 4Q24 [4][8] - The bank is focusing on optimizing its credit structure, including reducing bill financing, cautious retail lending, and emphasizing key areas such as the five new strategic sectors [8] - The bank's deposit growth outpaced loan growth, providing opportunities to further reduce liability costs [8] Valuation and Peer Comparison - Industrial Bank's current price corresponds to a 2025E P/B ratio of 0.5x, which is lower than the A-share banking sector average of 0.62x [1][13] - The bank's dividend yield is 5.25%, which is higher than the A-share banking sector average of 4.7% [1][13] - Industrial Bank's ROE is expected to be 9.88% in 2024, slightly below the A-share banking sector average of 10.5% [7][13]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the laser radar industry, particularly in the context of autonomous driving and smart vehicle applications [1][2] Core Views - The integration of laser radar data with end-to-end autonomous driving models is becoming mainstream, especially with advancements in AI and world models by companies like NVIDIA [2][3] - The laser radar industry is expected to enter the "thousand-yuan era" by 2025, making it more affordable and accessible for mass-market vehicles [4][5] - The competitive landscape is rapidly consolidating, with the "Big Four" (Hesai, RoboSense, Huawei, and Innovusion) emerging as dominant players [5][6] End-to-End Integration with Laser Radar - The debate over the necessity of laser radar in autonomous driving has been influenced by Tesla's pure vision approach, which relies heavily on neural networks and extensive driving data [11][12] - However, with the maturation of end-to-end algorithms and increased computational power, multi-sensor fusion (including laser radar) is no longer in opposition to pure vision systems [18][19] - In China, the complexity of driving conditions and consumer preferences make laser radar a more critical component for autonomous driving systems [26][27] Price Reduction and Market Penetration - The cost of laser radar is expected to drop significantly, with products like Hesai's ATX priced at less than $200, making it feasible for vehicles priced below $20,000 [38][39] - The reduction in cost is expected to drive the adoption of laser radar in both ADAS and non-ADAS applications, such as robotics and autonomous driving [39][40] - Specific driving scenarios, such as AEB (Autonomous Emergency Braking), benefit significantly from laser radar, with AEB speed limits increasing by approximately 50% in vehicles equipped with laser radar [43][44] Competitive Landscape and Market Consolidation - The laser radar industry is witnessing rapid consolidation, with the "Big Four" (Hesai, RoboSense, Huawei, and Innovusion) dominating the market [48][49] - Key competitive factors include technological innovation (e.g., detection range, chip self-development, and miniaturization) and mass production capabilities [49][50] - Hesai and RoboSense are leading in terms of market share, with RoboSense capturing 35% of the market in 2024, followed by Huawei (26%), Hesai (24%), and Innovusion (15%) [54][55] Key Players and Technological Advancements - Hesai has achieved significant milestones, including delivering over 279,835 laser radar units in 2024, with a focus on both ADAS and Robotaxi markets [64][65] - RoboSense has made strides in chip development, with its M-Core SoC chip achieving AEC-Q100 certification, paving the way for more cost-effective and compact laser radar solutions [78][79] - Both companies are expanding their presence in the robotics sector, leveraging their technological advancements to capture new growth opportunities [82][83]

2025 年 01 月 16 日 鼎龙股份 (300054) ——全年业绩实现高增，电子材料布局多点开花 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 01 月 15 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 25.80 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 31.44/15.36 | | 市净率 | 5.6 | | 息率（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 18,787 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,227.12/10,060.13 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 01-15 02-15 03-15 04-15 05-15 06-15 07-15 08-15 09-15 10-15 11-15 12-15 01-15 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 鼎龙股份 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 《鼎龙股份（300054）点评： 新材料业务 持续高增，战略转型后劲充足》 2024/10/25 《鼎龙股份（300054）点评： Q3 业绩维 持高增长，电子材料平台渐入佳境》 2024/10/0 ...

上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 01 月 15 日 燕京啤酒 (000729) ——改革提效成绩显著 2024 顺利收官 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 01 月 15 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 11.20 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 12.33/7.59 | | 市净率 | 2.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.89 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 28,108 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,227.12/10,060.13 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 5.27 | | 资产负债率% | 36.18 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,819/2,510 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 01-15 02-15 03-15 04-15 05-15 06-15 07-15 08-15 09-15 1 ...