Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2]. Core Insights - The company achieved an operating revenue of 2,937.98 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.48%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 164.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.02% [7][8]. - The report highlights that the fourth quarter saw a decline in oil prices, which negatively impacted profitability, particularly in the oil and gas and new energy sectors [7][10]. - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 160.9 billion, 162.7 billion, and 165.3 billion yuan respectively, with a reasonable valuation range of 11.32 to 13.07 yuan per share based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.3-1.5 times [7][23]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 164.68 billion yuan, with a fourth-quarter net profit of 32.16 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.05% year-on-year increase but a 26.77% quarter-on-quarter decrease [8][10]. - The company’s total assets reached 2,753.01 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 37.9% [26]. Business Segment Analysis - **Oil and Gas and New Energy Business**: The EBIT for this segment was affected by falling oil prices, with quarterly EBIT figures of 12.89, 15.22, 16.80, and 4.09 USD per barrel [11][13]. - **Refining and Chemical Business**: This segment saw improved profitability due to expanded price differentials, with EBIT figures of 3.19, 2.24, 0.67, and 2.46 USD per barrel [15]. - **Natural Gas Sales**: The EBIT for this segment increased in the fourth quarter to 0.76 yuan per cubic meter, attributed to effective cost control and rising domestic gas prices during the heating season [19][20]. Future Outlook - The company expects stable growth in net profits over the next few years, with a projected EPS of 0.88 yuan for 2025 [6][7]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's ability to navigate market fluctuations and achieve profitability [7][23].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating an expected relative performance above the market benchmark [9][14][20]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant improvements in lean management, leading to accelerated performance in emerging sectors such as low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence [6][7]. - The financial forecasts predict a steady growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a projected revenue of 36.09 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [9][14]. - The report highlights the company's strategic initiatives in various emerging industries, aiming to establish a new industrial ecosystem through technological breakthroughs and standard-setting [7][8]. Financial Performance and Forecast - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2023: Revenue of 28.89 billion yuan, net profit of 199 million yuan - 2024: Revenue of 32.07 billion yuan, net profit of 352 million yuan, YoY growth of 11.01% and 76.59% respectively - 2025E: Revenue of 36.09 billion yuan, net profit of 408 million yuan, YoY growth of 12.5% and 15.9% respectively - 2026E: Revenue of 40.43 billion yuan, net profit of 477 million yuan, YoY growth of 12.0% and 16.8% respectively - 2027E: Revenue of 44.81 billion yuan, net profit of 554 million yuan, YoY growth of 10.8% and 16.2% respectively [6][9][14]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Gross margin is expected to improve from 42.3% in 2023 to 47.6% in 2027 - Net asset return is projected to increase from 5.5% in 2023 to 14.5% in 2027 [6][9][14]. Business Segments and Growth Drivers - **Measurement Services**: Revenue growth of 5.0% annually, with a gross margin of 50.5% [9][10]. - **Integrated Circuit Testing and Analysis**: Expected revenue growth of 30.0% in 2025, with a gross margin of 45.5% [10][11]. - **Electromagnetic Compatibility Testing**: Anticipated revenue growth of 12.0% in 2025, with a gross margin of 55.0% [11][12]. - **Life Sciences**: Revenue growth of 4.0% in 2025, with a gross margin of 40.0% [12][13]. - **Data Science Analysis and Evaluation**: Projected revenue growth of 23.0% in 2025, with a gross margin of 56.0% [13][14]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company at 23.10-24.50 yuan per share based on a PE ratio of 33-35 times for 2025, considering the company's higher growth rate compared to peers [9][14][15]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is noted to be 25.52 times for 2025, indicating the company's growth potential justifies a premium valuation [9][15].

固定收益研究 证券研究报告 地方债月报 2025 年 4 月 1 日 全年隐债置换进度逾三分之二 ——地方政府债券月报 第一，截至 2025 年 3 月，地方政府债共发行 463 只，总规模 2.84 万亿元。 截至 3 月 31 日，2025 年地方政府债共发行 463 只，总规模 2.84 万亿元。具体来看，山东、福建、湖北、广 东、北京发行数量最多，分别发行 39、33、28、27、27 只地方政府债；从发行规模来看，江苏、广东、山东、四 川发行债券规模位列前位，分别为 4047.94 亿元、2068.85 亿元、2052.68 亿元和 1638.27 亿元。 图2 地方债发行进度（发行量：亿元） 图3 地方债发行进度（净融资额：亿元） 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/112/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 金融工程研究 证券研究报告 金融工程月报 2025 年 04 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《风格及行业观点月报（2025.03）》 2025.03.03 《大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.03）》 2025.03.03 《大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.02）》 2025.02.10 大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.04） [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 风险提示：模型失效风险、因子失效风险、海外市场波动风险。 分析师:郑雅斌 Tel:(021)23219395 Email:zhengyb@haitong.com 证书:S0850511040004 联系人:曹君豪 Tel:(021)23185657 Email:cjh13945@haitong.com 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_AuthorInfo] 大类资产 2 季度配臵信号。根据 2025 年 3 月底的最新数据，信用利差和期限利 差均发出收窄信号，Q2 宏观环境预测结果为 Inflation。 宏观动量模型配臵信 ...

- Model Name: Macro + Price-Volume Dual-Drive Large-Cap Rotation Strategy - Model Construction Idea: Integrate effective factors from macroeconomic and micro price-volume dimensions to drive large-cap style rotation[6] - Model Construction Process: - Combine signals from various factors such as monetary flow, PMI quarterly average, social financing weighted year-on-year, China-US interest rate spread, macro adjustment momentum, narrow style crowding, and broad large-cap crowding[7] - Assign signal values: 1 for large-cap signal, -1 for small-cap signal, 0 for no effective signal[7] - Formula: $ \text{Comprehensive Score} = \sum \text{Factor Signals} $ - Allocation: - If comprehensive score > 0, allocate fully to CSI 300 Index - If comprehensive score < 0, allocate fully to CSI 1000 Index - If comprehensive score = 0, equally allocate to CSI 300 and CSI 1000 Index[7] - Model Evaluation: The backtest win rate for Q1 2025 is 82.22%[6] - Model Name: Macro Price-Volume Dual-Drive Value-Growth Rotation Strategy - Model Construction Idea: Integrate effective factors from macroeconomic and micro price-volume dimensions to drive value-growth style rotation[11] - Model Construction Process: - Combine signals from various factors such as PMI new orders weighted month-on-month, PPI-CPI quarterly average difference, 1Y government bond quarterly average difference, 3M US bond level, macro adjustment momentum, style crowding, and market sentiment[12] - Assign signal values: 1 for value signal, -1 for growth signal, 0 for no effective signal[12] - Formula: $ \text{Comprehensive Score} = \sum \text{Factor Signals} $ - Allocation: - If comprehensive score > 0, allocate fully to CSI Value Index - If comprehensive score < 0, allocate fully to CSI Growth Index - If comprehensive score = 0, equally allocate to CSI Value and CSI Growth Index[12] - Model Evaluation: The backtest win rate for Q1 2025 is 77.78%[11] - Factor Name: Composite Factor Strategy - Factor Construction Idea: Integrate factors from historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, price-volume technicals, and macroeconomic dimensions to score industries[2] - Factor Construction Process: - Select 5 industries from 30 primary industries in CITIC, construct an equal-weighted long portfolio[17] - Evaluate performance based on absolute and excess returns[20] - Factor Evaluation: Composite factor strategy's excess return for March is 1.45%[2] - Factor Name: Single Factor Multi-Strategy - Factor Construction Idea: Use individual factors from historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, price-volume technicals, and macroeconomic dimensions to score industries[2] - Factor Construction Process: - Select 5 industries from 30 primary industries in CITIC, construct an equal-weighted long portfolio[17] - Evaluate performance based on absolute and excess returns[20] - Factor Evaluation: Single factor multi-strategy's excess return for March is 2.52%[2] Model Backtest Results - Macro + Price-Volume Dual-Drive Large-Cap Rotation Strategy - Interval Return: -1.21%[9] - Annualized Return: -4.92%[10] - Annualized Volatility: 14.80%[10] - Maximum Drawdown: 5.40%[10] - Sharpe Ratio: -0.33[10] - Calmar Ratio: -0.91[10] - Macro Price-Volume Dual-Drive Value-Growth Rotation Strategy - Interval Return: 0.46%[15] - Annualized Return: 1.94%[16] - Annualized Volatility: 17.51%[16] - Maximum Drawdown: 5.23%[16] - Sharpe Ratio: 0.11[16] - Calmar Ratio: 0.37[16] Factor Backtest Results - Composite Factor Strategy - Last Month Absolute Return: 1.34%[20] - Last Month Excess Return: 1.45%[20] - 2025 Absolute Return: 6.37%[20] - 2025 Excess Return: 5.94%[20] - Single Factor Multi-Strategy - Last Month Absolute Return: 2.41%[20] - Last Month Excess Return: 2.52%[20] - 2025 Absolute Return: 4.29%[20] - 2025 Excess Return: 4.05%[20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][8] Core Views - The company is transitioning to a full-color LED chip supplier, expanding from GaN-based blue-green LED epitaxial wafers and chips to GaAs-based red-yellow LED epitaxial wafers and chips [8] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.76 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.23%, and a net profit of 196 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 61.44% [8] - The LED market is expected to reach a value of 13.003 billion USD in 2025, despite challenges such as increased costs due to tariffs and suppressed consumer demand [8] - The company maintains industry-leading profitability due to refined management and advantages from late-stage equipment procurement [8] - Future revenue growth is anticipated from the completion of the annual production of 2.4 million red-yellow LED epitaxial wafers and chips [9] Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.332 billion yuan, 3.882 billion yuan, and 4.543 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.41 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.62 yuan [7][10] - The gross margin is expected to improve, with projections of 15.71%, 17.04%, and 17.22% for 2025-2027 [9][10] - The company’s net profit is forecasted to grow significantly, with estimates of 276 million yuan in 2025, 343 million yuan in 2026, and 417 million yuan in 2027 [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [3][4] - The overall gross margin increased by 0.21 percentage points to 32.03% in 2024, despite the revenue decline [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.5 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) to all shareholders [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 56.5 billion yuan, a decline of 16.38% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [3][4] - The diluted EPS for 2024 was 2.1 yuan, and the return on equity was 7.88% [3] - The operating cash flow for the year was 7.94 billion yuan [3] Revenue Breakdown - Sales of duty-free goods and taxable goods decreased by 12.58% and 23.49% respectively, with gross margins of 39.50% and 13.45% [5] - Revenue from Hainan and Shanghai regions was 28.89 billion yuan and 16.03 billion yuan, down 27.13% and 10.02% year-on-year, with gross margins of 23.73% and 25.80% respectively [5] Expense Analysis - The total selling expenses for 2024 were 9.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%, with a selling expense ratio of 16.0%, up 2.1 percentage points [6] - Management expenses were 1.99 billion yuan, with a management expense ratio of 3.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points [6] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate a revenue of 60.6 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 7.4%, with a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan, an increase of 12.5% [6][8] - The projected PE ratio for 2025 is between 30-35 times, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 69.6 to 81.2 yuan [6]

股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 31日收盘价（元）] 26.51 | | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） 19.87-30.05 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） 2214/2214 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 58692/58692 | | 相关研究 | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《2024 年销量稳居第一，出口持续发力》 | | 2025.01.11 | | 《2024Q3 业绩累计同比显著提升，客车销量 | | 继续增长》2024.10.30 | | 《业绩优秀，布局自动驾驶》2024.07.25 | | 市场表现 | [Table_QuoteInfo] -14.08% -3.08% 7.92% 18.92% 29.92% 40.92% 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 宇通客车 海通综指 | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅（%） | 0.6 | -7.0 | 4.5 | | 相对涨幅（%） | 0.7 | -8.8 | 6.9 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company, 康龙化成, has maintained a steady growth in revenue and profit throughout the year, with an accelerating revenue growth rate quarter by quarter. The adjusted profit for Q4 2024 is expected to recover [6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 11,538 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4%. The net profit was 1,601 million yuan, reflecting a 16.5% increase year-on-year. For 2024, the revenue is projected to be 12,276 million yuan, a 6.4% increase, and the net profit is expected to reach 1,793 million yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year [5][6]. Business Segment Performance - **Laboratory Services**: Revenue reached 7,047 million yuan in 2024, growing by 5.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 44.4%. The segment saw a 15%+ increase in new orders [6]. - **CMC Business**: Generated 2,989 million yuan in revenue, a 10.2% increase, with a gross margin of 33.1%. New orders grew by 35%+ [6]. - **Clinical Research Services**: Revenue was 1,826 million yuan, up 5.1%, with a gross margin of 12.8%. The segment faced some margin pressure due to increased competition [6]. - **Large Molecule and Cell & Gene Therapy Services**: Revenue declined to 408 million yuan, down 4.1%, with a negative gross margin of 50.1% due to construction investments [7]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 14,098 million yuan in 2025, 16,104 million yuan in 2026, and 18,250 million yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 14.8%, 14.2%, and 13.3% [5][10]. - The expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1,928 million yuan, 2,356 million yuan, and 2,914 million yuan, with growth rates of 7.5%, 22.2%, and 23.7% respectively [10]. Valuation - The report suggests a reasonable valuation range for the company at 32.53 to 37.96 yuan per share, based on a projected PE ratio of 30-35 times for 2025 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance has been impacted by the real estate sector, while the exhibition and commercial income segments have shown growth [8] - The company has a dual operational model of "exhibition + real estate," which is expected to enhance resource integration and industry interaction [8] - The report projects that the company's EPS and BPS for 2025 will be 0.04 yuan and 2.91 yuan respectively, with a dynamic PB of 0.6-0.7 times, leading to a reasonable value range of 1.75 yuan to 2.04 yuan [8] Financial Data and Forecast - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve operating revenue of 71.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54.6%, primarily due to reduced income from the real estate development segment [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -28.27 billion yuan, a decline of 54.71% year-on-year [8] - The exhibition and commercial property segment is anticipated to generate revenue of 29.61 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an increase of 11.77% year-on-year [8] - The real estate development segment is expected to report revenue of 40.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 68.92% year-on-year [8] - The company has managed to host 2,243 events in its self-owned venues and hotels, marking a 1.9% increase year-on-year, with significant events attracting 5.8625 million attendees, a 20.6% increase [8] - The company’s contract sales amount and area for 2024 are projected to be 44.26 billion yuan and 339,500 square meters respectively [8] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 1.73 yuan on March 31, with a 52-week price fluctuation between 1.25 and 2.47 yuan [2] - The total market capitalization is 58.25 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 46.02 billion yuan [2] - The report indicates a relative performance against the market index, with absolute returns of -5.5% over 1 month, 1.8% over 2 months, and -11.7% over 3 months [4]