国泰海通晨报 2025 年 06 月 12 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【金融工程】我们调整此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们上修港股的战术性配置观点至超 配，下修国债的战术性配置观点至标配，上修黄金的战术性配置观点至超配。 2、【批零贸易业】5 月出口受关税及上年高基数影响，随中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展，出海链 受益，部分对美敞口高的公司望迎估值修复。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 主动量化周报：《行云流水：欧洲央行连续八次降息》2025- 06-10 王子翌（分析师）021-38676666 我们上修港股的战术性配置观点至超配。中国科技突破与新兴产业主题交易热度持续高涨， 国际资金的投资组合调整行为近期更加倾向于流入港股。随着南下资金逐渐提升对于港股以及其部分 板块的定价权，全球宏观环境波动对港股的扰动边际减弱。随着市场对全球地缘政治冲突的担忧降温 以及对特朗普政策关税政策的逐渐钝化，港股的短期风险回报比相对于其他大类资产 ...

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 06 月 11 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、高中教育受益人口红利与政策红利，有望进一步增加学位供给。 2、太力科技深耕家庭收纳用品领域，核心产品真空收纳袋在电商渠道份额领先、收入稳步增长， 垂直墙壁置物产品等产品快速放量，通过多元化渠道有效实现销售增长。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 行业深度研究：教育产业《职普融合，高中学位供给扩容》 2025-05-09 刘越男（分析师）021-38676666、宋小寒（分析师）021-38676666、许樱之（分析师）021-38676666 投资建议：高中教育需求刚性，仍具备 7-8 年人口红利期，政府支持扩大高中阶段教育学 位供给，引导规范民办教育发展，推进职普融通。高中教育相关公司受益政策与需求红利，推荐标 的：天立国际控股、学大教育；受益标的：凯文教育。 高中教育还有 7-8 年人口红利期，需求韧性强。以 2025 年为例，高中段适龄人口出生日期约 为 ...

Market Performance - The new stock index and the near-term new stock index fell by 1.38% and 3.62% respectively in the fourth week of May 2025[5] - Nearly 90% of the near-term new stock index constituents declined, with some stocks like Taili Technology and Honggong Technology dropping over 10%[5] - The overall average increase of 46 newly listed stocks was -2.27%, indicating a continued decline in the new stock sector[46] New Stock Issuance - New stock issuance included 5,989,000 shares from Xinhenghui (301678.SZ) and 2,500,000 shares from Huazhijie (603400.SH)[1] - The average first-day increase for the newly listed stock Guxi Rongcai was 170.76%, a recovery compared to the previous two weeks' average of around 100%[39] Trading Activity - The trading activity in the new stock sector continued to decline, with turnover rates for the new stock index and near-term new stock index decreasing by 1.08 percentage points and 3.30 percentage points respectively[18] - The net active selling in the new stock sector reached 3.045 billion yuan, an increase of 6.92 billion yuan from the previous week[24] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the new stock index increased by 0.62 to 51.7X, while the near-term new stock index PE decreased by 0.05 to 33.5X[13] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio for the new stock index was 3.9X, corresponding to a historical percentile of 68.2%[17]

Group 1: Utilities Sector - The utilities team believes that northern thermal power shows high growth, while hydropower's profitability is stable, green energy performance is under pressure, and nuclear power prices affect industry profits [2][18] - In Q1 2025, national thermal power companies maintained profit growth, but regional thermal power companies showed some divergence, with northern thermal power plants outperforming southern ones [3][18] - Hydropower sample companies maintained high growth rates in Q1 2025, with a median profit growth rate of 26%, primarily due to optimized water storage and dispatch [4][19] - Green energy companies faced profit declines, with median net profit growth rates of -12% in 2024 and -4% in Q1 2025, attributed to falling electricity prices and poor wind conditions [5][20] Group 2: Retail Sector - Yiwu's import and export data for January to April 2025 exceeded 200 billion yuan, with a total import and export value of 231.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1% [7][12] - The export mode through market procurement trade accounted for 81.7% of Yiwu's total exports, with a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [7][12] - Yiwu maintained strong growth in exports to major trade markets, with significant increases in exports to Latin America, the EU, and ASEAN [8][13] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "overweight" rating for the utilities sector, with suggested stocks including Huadian International, Anhui Energy, Datang Power, and Huaneng International for thermal power [2][18] - For hydropower, recommended stocks include Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and Chuanwei Energy [2][18] - In the retail sector, the report suggests focusing on the small commodity city in Yiwu, anticipating continued high economic activity and growth potential [9][14]

Group 1: Coal Industry - The coal team believes that coal prices have stabilized at the bottom, with an expected turning point in June due to rising temperatures and inventory reduction [1] - April coal production in China was 390 million tons, a decrease of 50 million tons from March's 440 million tons, indicating a market response to rapid price declines and economic pressures on companies [2] - The report anticipates a rebound in thermal coal prices in June, with a current closing price of 621 RMB/ton, reflecting a 0.5% decrease from the previous week [3] Group 2: Electronic Industry - The G1 robot demonstrated strong balance and high action fluency in combat competitions, indicating potential acceleration in commercialization due to advancements in motion control models and simulation data training [6][7] - The report highlights the need for improved generalization capabilities in robots, with a focus on enhancing intelligence and accelerating commercial deployment through synthetic data collection [8] Group 3: Baidu Group - Baidu's intelligent cloud business showed significant growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 6.7 billion RMB, a 42% year-on-year increase, driven by surging demand across various industries [11] - The transition to AI search is accelerating, with approximately 35% of search results in April containing AI-generated content, up from 22% in January [13] - The adjusted net profit for Baidu is projected to be 25.8 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates due to profit margin pressures from revenue structure changes [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report suggests an equilibrium style allocation, emphasizing financial, technology, and pro - cyclical assets. It remains optimistic about the Chinese A/H stock markets, expecting the A/H indices to rise further. For the bond market, it believes the current coupon strategy is dominant, and high - grade short - duration credit bonds may benefit. It also provides specific investment suggestions for different types of funds [3][11][12][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review - **A - share Market**: A - shares adjusted last week. The pharmaceutical and biological, comprehensive, and non - ferrous metal industries performed well. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.57% to 3348.37 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.46% to 10132.41 points. The trading volume of the two A - share markets was 5.69 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 470.7 billion yuan from the previous week [3][6]. - **Bond Market**: The bond market fluctuated. The central bank conducted a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation. Compared with May 16, 2025, by May 23, 2025, the 1 - year Treasury yield dropped 0.3BP to 1.45%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 4BP to 1.72%. The main bond indices showed mixed trends, and the Convertible Bond Index fell 0.11% [3][7]. - **Overseas Market**: U.S. stocks fell due to Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.47%, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.61%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 2.47%. European and Asian - Pacific markets showed mixed trends. The U.S. dollar index fell 1.84%. Oil prices dropped, while gold prices rose [3][8]. 2. Last Week's Fund Market Review - **Stock - type Funds**: Stock - type funds fell 0.27% overall. Some funds heavily invested in the pharmaceutical sector performed well. Index funds related to Hong Kong - listed innovative drugs and gold stocks performed well [3][9][10]. - **Bond - type Funds**: Bond - type funds rose 0.06% overall. Some partial - debt bond funds and convertible - bond funds with equity assets in gold stocks and pharmaceuticals performed well. Pure - debt bond funds with heavy allocations to medium - and high - grade credit bonds also performed well [3][10]. - **QDII Funds**: Equity - type QDII funds rose 0.03% overall. Some funds mainly investing in Hong Kong - listed pharmaceutical stocks and global gold fields performed well. QDII bond - type funds fell 0.21% [10]. - **Other Funds**: The annualized yield of money market funds was 1.34%. Gold ETFs and their linked funds rose 3.90%, and commodity - type funds rose 3.11% [10]. 3. Future Investment Strategy - **Macro - economy**: In April, the economy remained resilient under external shocks. Domestic demand showed some resilience with policy support. In May, external demand may recover, and domestic demand awaits further policy support [11]. - **Stock Market**: The capital market's basic system reform is accelerating. The report remains optimistic about the Chinese A/H stock markets, believing that the decline in the discount rate is the main driving force for the rise of the Chinese stock market [12]. - **Bond Market**: The reduction in deposit rates may have limited impact on funds flowing out of the banking system. High - grade short - duration credit bonds may benefit. The coupon strategy remains dominant [12][15]. - **Fund Investment**: For stock - and hybrid funds, an equilibrium style allocation is recommended, focusing on financial, technology, and pro - cyclical assets. For bond funds, attention should be paid to products with heavy allocations to medium - and short - duration, medium - and high - grade credit bonds and coupon protection. There are no trend - based investment opportunities for money market funds, and gold ETFs can be appropriately allocated for long - term and hedging investments [15]. 4. Latest Fund Market Developments - **New Floating - rate Funds**: On May 23, 2025, the first batch of 26 new floating - rate funds received regulatory approval. They will be issued on May 27, with different fee rates based on performance [16]. - **ETF - FOF Market**: The ETF - FOF market is entering a new layout window. More institutions are increasing the weight of ETFs in their asset portfolios [17]. - **Newly - established Funds**: Last week, 27 new funds were established, with an average subscription period of about 20 days and an average raised share of 608 million, totaling 16.423 billion shares [19]. - **Fund Dividends**: In the coming week, 36 funds will conduct equity registration, with the most notable being the China Merchants Highway REIT, which will distribute a dividend of 2.155 yuan per 10 shares [20].

Key Insights - The report emphasizes the successful construction of a timing model that predicts short-term market sentiment changes based on the number of stocks hitting the daily limit up or down and their tradable returns [2][37] - The annualized return of the sentiment timing model is reported at 6.65%, with a maximum drawdown of 29.39% [2][37] - Improvements to the model, including market trend integration and different weighting of sentiment indicators, have resulted in enhanced performance, with the best annualized return reaching 9.68% and a maximum drawdown reduced to 24.47% [3][37] Automotive Industry - The upcoming launch of Xiaomi's new SUV model, YU7, is expected to benefit the automotive supply chain, with a recommendation for stocks such as Huayang Group and Top Group [6] - Xiaomi's Q1 2025 vehicle sales reached 76,000 units, reflecting an 8.9% quarter-over-quarter increase, indicating strong production and supply chain capabilities [7] - The net loss for Xiaomi's innovative automotive business decreased to 700 million yuan in Q4 2024, with the loss per vehicle narrowing to 10,000 yuan, suggesting improving profitability as production scales up [8] Cultural Industry - Tencent's launch of the Hunyuan Game platform aims to enhance efficiency in game content production, with AI capabilities significantly reducing design time [9][10] - The report highlights the potential of AI technology to improve productivity in the gaming industry, maintaining a positive outlook for companies with strong AI integration [10] Real Estate Industry - The report indicates a continued decline in new construction area growth, with a drop of 24% in April, suggesting a shift towards inventory reduction in the real estate market [12][13] - The new construction area is projected to be 420 million square meters for the year, which is expected to be lower than the sales area, indicating a need for further land acquisition to support market demand [12][13] - The report recommends several real estate companies that are well-positioned to navigate the current market conditions, including Vanke and China Overseas Development [14] Public Utilities - The report notes that coal-fired power remains a promising sector, with expectations for profitability growth in the second quarter due to favorable coal prices [15] - The introduction of new energy sources into the market is being closely monitored, with ongoing reforms in various regions [15][16] Company-Specific Insights - He Bai Group's revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 7.3 billion, 7.5 billion, and 7.7 billion yuan, with a target price of 8.52 yuan based on a 26x PE ratio [19][20] - Bilibili's Q1 2025 revenue is projected at 7 billion yuan, with a strong performance in gaming and advertising sectors, leading to an adjusted net profit of 360 million yuan [22][23] - The report highlights the growth potential of Red Child City Technology, with revenue forecasts of 6.55 billion, 8.11 billion, and 9.67 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [26][27]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The report highlights that central bank gold purchases are a significant driver of gold price increases, with an estimated 1,044 tons purchased in 2024 [2] - Investment demand for gold is expected to dominate in the short term, with a projected investment demand of 1,179 tons in 2024, while gold jewelry consumption is anticipated to decline by 11% year-on-year to approximately 1,877 tons [2][3] - The report notes a significant increase in gold ETF sizes, with domestic gold ETFs rising by over 50 billion in April, indicating heightened investor interest in gold [3] Group 2: Coal Industry Insights - The coal sector is expected to see an upward turning point by the end of May, coinciding with the summer peak demand, suggesting that the current price drop is the last before the peak season [2] - The report recommends key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, indicating a strong dividend logic for these leading firms [4][30] - The report anticipates that the coal industry has fully released risks, with a potential upward trend expected as demand recovers, particularly with the summer peak approaching [33] Group 3: Beauty and Biotech Sector Developments - The report discusses Jinbo Biological's new collagen technology, which eliminates reliance on chemical cross-linking agents, marking a significant innovation in the field of biocompatible materials [12] - Jinbo Biological's new product, a recombinant type III humanized collagen gel, is expected to enhance safety and efficacy in clinical applications, with a target price set at 565.54 yuan [12][13] - The company is projected to achieve significant earnings growth, with EPS estimates of 12.57, 17.20, and 22.14 yuan for 2025-2027 [12] Group 4: AI and Technology Sector Updates - The report emphasizes that ByteDance has emerged as a leading force in AI development, with new models and applications being introduced [25] - The launch of the MCP Servers by ByteDance is expected to facilitate AI application development, streamlining the process for developers [26] - The introduction of new AI technologies, such as the DiskANN and RaBitQ algorithms, is anticipated to significantly enhance performance in vector retrieval applications [27]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a favorable trading window due to the easing of US-China tariff tensions, suggesting a focus on "technology growth + consumer recovery" as the main investment themes [1][3][6] - The equity market has shown a recovery from the initial shock of tariff escalations, with major indices surpassing levels seen before the tariff disputes began [1][2] Group 2: Company Analysis - Times Electric (688187) - Times Electric is recognized as a leader in traction conversion systems for rail transit, with a diversified strategy that opens new growth avenues in emerging equipment [7][8] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing maintenance of high-speed trains and the replacement of aging locomotives, with projected revenues and net profits for 2024 reaching 24.91 billion and 3.70 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.42% and 21.77% [7][8] Group 3: Industry Insights - Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a structural shift towards new consumption trends, with channel and product innovation driving performance in mass-market products [10][11] - The report recommends increasing holdings in high-growth consumer brands, particularly in the liquor and snack segments, as well as in the beverage sector, where single-product advantages are expected to continue [10][12] Group 4: Industry Insights - Coal - The coal market is seeing a decline in prices, with thermal coal prices dropping to 624 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.5% from the previous week [33] - Inventory levels for thermal coal have increased, indicating a potential oversupply situation in the market [33][34] Group 5: Industry Insights - Oil and Gas - Oil prices have rebounded due to the easing of negative news regarding OPEC+ production increases and concerns over supply disruptions from new US sanctions on Iranian oil entities [36][38] - Brent crude oil prices rose from $62.13 to $64.53 per barrel between May 1 and May 15, marking a 4% increase [36][38]

Macro Insights - The macro team believes that the financial data for April 2025 reflects continued policy efforts to stabilize growth, including accelerated issuance and utilization of government bonds, while also indicating that domestic demand, particularly in the household sector, still needs to be boosted [2][4][13] - In April, new social financing amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, raising the stock growth rate of social financing to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024 [3][13] - New loans in April were 280 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion yuan, with corporate bill financing being the main support for credit in April [3][13] Retail Sector - The retail team notes that substantial progress has been made in China-US trade negotiations, benefiting companies with high exposure to the US market, which are expected to see valuation recovery [2][6] - Companies with strong brand momentum and expected marginal performance improvements are favored [2][6] Machinery Industry - The machinery team highlights that Hangzhou Steam Turbine's successful ignition of its self-developed 50MW heavy gas turbine represents a significant advancement for China's independent gas turbine industry, potentially accelerating the domestic industrial chain's localization [2][6][19] - The global gas turbine market is expected to see a definite upward trend due to demand from data center construction and other factors [6][19][20] Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a shift in public fund assessments, with an emphasis on optimizing allocations towards high-value segments [2][31] - The sector is characterized by a high weight in benchmark indices but is currently underrepresented in active fund holdings, indicating potential for increased investment [16][31] - The white liquor segment is undergoing a phase of differentiation, while beverage and snack categories are expected to benefit from seasonal demand [18][31] Communication Equipment and Services - The communication industry is rated as "overweight," with significant growth expected in AI-related capital expenditures, particularly in the domestic market [35] - The industry is poised to benefit from the acceleration of AI applications and infrastructure investments, with major players like Alibaba and Tencent significantly increasing their capital expenditures [35]