Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various quantitative stock portfolios, indicating a challenging week for aggressive and balanced portfolios with weekly returns of -5.91% and -6.29% respectively, while major indices showed mixed results [9][10] - The report emphasizes the relative performance of the aggressive and balanced portfolios against the CSI 500 index, with excess returns of -4.97% and -5.35% respectively during the week [9][10] - Year-to-date, the aggressive and balanced portfolios have shown cumulative returns of 18.61% and 7.68%, significantly outperforming the major indices [10] Group 2: Multi-Factor Portfolio Performance - The report details the performance of enhanced index portfolios, noting that the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio had a weekly return of -0.62%, underperforming the index by -0.63% [12][13] - The CSI 1000 enhanced portfolio, however, achieved a positive excess return of 0.70% despite a weekly return of -1.44% [12] - Cumulatively, the CSI 1000 enhanced portfolio has outperformed its index year-to-date with a return of 8.34% compared to the index's 5.21% [13] Group 3: Fund Holdings Performance - The report indicates that the unique holdings of high-performing funds yielded a weekly return of 0.31%, outperforming the total stock fund index by 1.94% [17] - Year-to-date, this fund's cumulative return stands at 8.22%, exceeding the total stock fund index's return of 4.49% [17] Group 4: Profitability, Growth, and Cash Flow Portfolio - The profitability, growth, and cash flow portfolio achieved a weekly return of 1.31%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.29% [19] - Cumulatively, this portfolio has returned 8.72% since the beginning of March, compared to the CSI 300 index's 0.65% [19] Group 5: Low Valuation Portfolio with Fundamental Support - The PB-profitability preferred portfolio reported a weekly return of -0.21%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by -0.22% [20] - However, this portfolio has shown a cumulative return of 5.21% since the beginning of March, outperforming the index [20] Group 6: Small Cap Value and Growth Portfolios - The small-cap value preferred portfolios had weekly returns of -2.81% and -4.17%, with the first portfolio outperforming the micro-cap index by 1.64% [25][26] - The small-cap growth portfolio achieved a weekly return of -2.83%, outperforming the micro-cap index by 1.62% [28] Group 7: Single Factor Performance - The report notes that large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks, and low valuation stocks outperformed high valuation stocks in the style factor category [31] - In the technical factor category, reversal, turnover, and volatility factors contributed positively to returns [35] - The fundamental factor category showed positive contributions from ROE, SUE, and expected net profit adjustment factors [38]

[Table_MainInfo] 基金研究 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 专题报告 2025 年 3 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《"基"微成著系列（六）：基于财务报表 的债券基金业绩归因模型》2023.11.24 《"基"微成著系列（四）：主动固收基金 分 析 框 架 概 述 之 含 权 类 债 基 篇 》 2023.09.04 《"基"微成著系列（三）：主动固收基金 分析框架概述之纯债基金篇》2023.08.21 "基"微成著系列（八）：债券基金久期 测算方法研究 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 首席分析师:倪韵婷 Tel:(021)23185605 Email:niyt@haitong.com 证书:S0850511010017 分析师:章画意 Tel:(021)23185670 Email:zhy13958@haitong.com 证书:S0850523070003 [Table_AuthorInfo] ⚫ 债券基金久期测算方法介绍。常见的债券基金久期测算方法有重仓券法、利 率敏感度法及净值回归法等。重仓 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue is under pressure due to weak short-term demand, but its core product market share remains stable, and efforts to improve quality and efficiency are expected to enhance profitability [5][7]. - The company achieved total revenue of 21.492 billion HKD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 861 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.36% [7]. - The report emphasizes significant improvement in revenue growth in the second half of the year, driven by an increase in average prices, despite a decline in sales volume [7]. Financial Data and Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023: 21.511 billion HKD, 2024: 21.492 billion HKD, 2025E: 23.133 billion HKD, 2026E: 24.617 billion HKD, 2027E: 26.049 billion HKD [6]. - Net profit forecasts are: 2023: 833 million HKD, 2024: 861 million HKD, 2025E: 975 million HKD, 2026E: 1.103 billion HKD, 2027E: 1.235 billion HKD [6]. - The report projects a diluted EPS of 0.30 HKD for 2023, increasing to 0.31 HKD in 2024, and reaching 0.44 HKD by 2027 [6]. Market Performance - The company’s soda category showed resilience with a revenue of 16.373 billion HKD in 2024, growing by 2.5% year-on-year, maintaining the leading market share despite overall market decline [7][8]. - The juice category experienced a revenue decline of 7.46%, totaling 3.134 billion HKD, but profitability metrics improved [8]. - The water category saw a significant revenue drop of 28.57%, amounting to 0.891 billion HKD, with plans to focus on high-quality water products in the future [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on restructuring its marketing network and enhancing direct sales, achieving a significant increase in the number of direct service customers [9][10]. - The digital transformation efforts through platforms like the "Happy Meeting" mini-program have led to double-digit growth in online sales [10]. - The report notes that the company is actively engaging with younger consumers through innovative marketing strategies, including campus events and promotions [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in revenue and profit, with a projected revenue of HKD 23.15 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit of HKD 2.32 billion, up 21.9% year-on-year [6] - The company has made significant progress in new business areas, particularly in battery boxes and chassis structural components, securing major orders from key clients in both domestic and international markets [6] - The diversified product portfolio and balanced customer structure are expected to support the company's long-term sustainable growth [6] Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 20.52 billion in 2023 to HKD 26.93 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.3% [5][8] - Net profit is expected to increase from HKD 1.90 billion in 2023 to HKD 2.77 billion in 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 19.6% [5][8] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to improve from 27.4% in 2023 to 29.0% by 2025 [5][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from HKD 1.64 in 2023 to HKD 2.39 in 2025 [5][8] Valuation - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10-12 times for 2025, leading to a fair value range of HKD 25.58 to HKD 30.70 [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the intelligent computing cloud industry in Shanghai is expected to exceed 200 billion by 2027, driven by new policies [2][7] - The report outlines a comprehensive ecosystem for intelligent computing cloud, aiming for a computing power of 200 EFLOPS with over 70% being self-controlled by 2027 [7] - Key measures include infrastructure upgrades, application scenario exploration, enterprise cultivation, and ecosystem improvement [7] - The report suggests that Shanghai will become a hub for the intelligent computing cloud industry, attracting quality enterprises and fostering a complete industrial chain by 2027 [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report provides a comparative performance analysis of the information services sector against the Haitong Composite Index, showing various percentage changes over the quarters [5] Related Research - The report references several related studies, including topics on AI investments by major companies and the impact of new consumer loan policies [6] Analyst Information - The report lists multiple analysts responsible for the research, including their contact information and certifications [8]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Full A Linear Regression Multi-Factor Model **Construction Idea**: This model uses multiple factors such as market capitalization, dividend yield, low volatility, turnover rate, fundamentals, expectations, and high-frequency factors to predict stock returns across the A-share market. However, its performance on the STAR Market is relatively weak[6][7] **Construction Process**: The model calculates composite scores based on factor values and evaluates the correlation between these scores and future stock returns using IC and RankIC metrics. The STAR Market's IC and RankIC averages are significantly lower than other A-shares[7] **Evaluation**: The model's effectiveness is limited on the STAR Market, with weaker IC and RankIC performance compared to other A-shares[6][7] - **Model Name**: Multi-Factor Top100 Combination **Construction Idea**: Select stocks with the highest composite factor scores to build a portfolio[37][40] **Construction Process**: 1. Exclude stocks with a market capitalization below 2 billion RMB 2. Select the top 100 stocks with the highest composite factor scores 3. Construct a market-cap-weighted portfolio with a single stock weight cap of 10% **Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance with high IC, monthly win rates, and significant excess returns relative to the STAR Market Composite Index[37][40] - **Model Name**: Linear Optimization Combination **Construction Idea**: Build an enhanced portfolio under specific constraints to optimize risk-return characteristics[42] **Construction Process**: 1. Apply constraints such as individual stock deviation (1%), market cap deviation (0.2%), beta deviation (0.5%), momentum deviation (0.5%), and industry deviation (5%) 2. Construct the portfolio based on these constraints and evaluate its excess returns relative to the STAR Market Composite Index[42] **Evaluation**: The model achieves lower excess returns compared to the Top100 Combination but exhibits reduced volatility and drawdowns[42] - **Model Name**: Composite Combination **Construction Idea**: Combine the Top100 Combination and Linear Optimization Combination to balance risk and return[45] **Construction Process**: 1. Allocate 20% weight to the Top100 Combination and 80% weight to the Linear Optimization Combination 2. Rebalance monthly to maintain the weight distribution **Evaluation**: The model achieves higher excess returns and a better risk-return ratio compared to individual combinations[45] Model Backtesting Results - **Full A Linear Regression Multi-Factor Model**: - STAR Market monthly average IC: 4.62% - STAR Market monthly average RankIC: 7.53% - Other A-shares monthly average IC: 6.74% - Other A-shares monthly average RankIC: 9.88%[7] - **Multi-Factor Top100 Combination**: - Annualized return: 18.6% - Relative annualized excess return: 22.8% - Monthly win rate: 74.0% - Excess return annualized volatility: 10.3% - Information ratio (IR): 2.27[40][41] - **Linear Optimization Combination**: - Annualized excess return: 10.2% - Excess return annualized volatility: 5.6% - Information ratio (IR): 2.0 - Monthly win rate: 72.0%[42][43] - **Composite Combination**: - Annualized excess return: 12.7% - Excess return annualized volatility: 6.0% - Information ratio (IR): 2.25 - Monthly win rate: 70.0%[45][46] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Basic Negative Exclusion Factor **Construction Idea**: Combine factors with strong negative effects to exclude underperforming stocks[23][24] **Construction Process**: 1. Combine SUE, SUE_Rev, and revenue growth rate factors equally 2. Identify stocks in the bottom 20% of factor rankings as "short positions" 3. Evaluate the excess returns of these short positions relative to the STAR Market average[23][24] **Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong negative excess returns and statistical significance[23][24] - **Factor Name**: Market Correlation Factor **Construction Idea**: Measure the correlation between individual stock returns and the STAR Market Composite Index to identify high-risk premium stocks[25][27] **Construction Process**: 1. Use the past 12 months' stock returns to regress against the STAR Market Composite Index returns 2. Use regression coefficients as the market correlation factor 3. Divide stocks into quintiles based on factor values and evaluate excess returns for each group[27][28] **Evaluation**: The factor shows statistically significant IC and cumulative IC trends, with higher correlation stocks outperforming[27][28] - **Factor Name**: Improved Momentum Factor **Construction Idea**: Adjust traditional momentum factors to account for downside risks and sector trends[30][31] **Construction Process**: 1. Extract trading days where the sector's average return is positive over the past 3 months 2. Calculate the 20% quantile of individual stock excess returns on these trading days 3. Use the quantile value as the momentum factor[30][31] **Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong IC and win rates, with statistical significance even after orthogonalization[30][34] Factor Backtesting Results - **Basic Negative Exclusion Factor**: - Annualized excess return: -6.75% - Monthly win rate: 32.0% - Statistical significance: t-value -4.03, p-value 0.000[23][24] - **Market Correlation Factor**: - Monthly average IC: 2.5% - Monthly win rate: 58% - Statistical significance: 10% confidence level[27][29] - **Improved Momentum Factor**: - Original monthly average IC: 3.91% - Orthogonalized monthly average IC: 2.64% - Monthly win rate: 66.0% (original), 64.0% (orthogonalized)[31][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the privatization of Xin'ao Energy, which will enhance its operational capabilities and shareholder returns [8] - The company's natural gas sales volume increased by 10.3% year-on-year, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas markets [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated to be 1.68, 1.97, and 2.39 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12-13 times for 2025 [8] Financial Summary - The company reported total revenue of 135.91 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5.51% year-on-year [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.493 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 36.6% [8] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 14.0% in 2024 to 17.3% by 2027 [8] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 132.49 billion yuan in 2024 to 223.81 billion yuan by 2027 [11]

Group 1: Gold Pricing Model - The traditional gold pricing model based on USD real interest rates has become ineffective post-2022, with its explanatory power dropping from 83% to 19%[9][12] - A new extended model incorporating global central bank gold purchases shows a significant increase in explanatory power, rising from 45% to 88%[21] - In optimistic scenarios, gold prices could exceed $3,800 per ounce, while neutral and pessimistic scenarios predict prices around $3,200 and $2,600-$2,700 per ounce, respectively[30][32] Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Approximately 69% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves over the next five years, indicating a long-term trend in gold accumulation[26][27] - The demand for gold from global central banks is expected to rise significantly due to concerns over U.S. financial sanctions and high debt levels, with annual purchases potentially reaching 1,300 tons[30][32] - Major gold-holding countries currently have low gold reserve ratios compared to their foreign exchange reserves, suggesting substantial room for future increases[28][29] Group 3: Economic and Policy Factors - The current bull market in gold is primarily driven by non-economic factors, such as declining trust between nations and the restructuring of the global monetary system[31] - Policy uncertainty has increased significantly since 2022, further enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset[24][26] - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is at historical highs, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt and diminishing trust in the dollar[26][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Weichai Power is "Outperform the Market" [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - Weichai Power's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 215.69 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%. The net profit is expected to reach 11.403 billion RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 26.5% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in 2025, with sales revenue estimated between 226.5 billion and 237.3 billion RMB, representing a growth of approximately 5-10% [7][8]. - The report highlights strong performance in high-end power systems and logistics equipment, with significant growth in the M series high-power density engines and the Kael Group's logistics solutions [7][8]. Financial Data and Forecast - Key financial data for Weichai Power includes: - Revenue: 213,958 million RMB in 2023, projected to grow to 235,520 million RMB in 2025 [6][11]. - Net Profit: 9,014 million RMB in 2023, expected to increase to 12,645 million RMB in 2025 [6][11]. - EPS: Expected to rise from 1.03 RMB in 2023 to 1.45 RMB in 2025 [6][11]. - Gross Margin: Expected to improve from 22.4% in 2024 to 23.0% in 2027 [6][11]. - ROE: Projected to increase from 13.2% in 2024 to 16.2% in 2027 [6][11]. Business Segment Performance - The revenue forecast by business segment for 2024 includes: - Intelligent Logistics: 88,726 million RMB - Agricultural Equipment: 18,345 million RMB - Complete Vehicles and Key Components: 89,779 million RMB [8]. - The gross profit margin for Intelligent Logistics is expected to be 26.9% in 2024, with a gradual increase to 28.0% by 2027 [8]. Valuation Comparison - The report suggests a reasonable valuation range for Weichai Power at 18.84 to 21.74 RMB per share, based on a PE ratio of 13-15 times for 2025 [7][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved a comprehensive revenue of 170.43 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, with core net profit growing by 20.1% to 35.07 billion RMB [7][8]. - The comprehensive gross margin and net profit margin attributable to the parent company were 32.91% and 21.30%, respectively, both showing improvements compared to the previous year [7][8]. - The board declared a final dividend of 0.643 RMB per share, an increase of 33.7% year-on-year, maintaining a total payout ratio of 100% for 2024 [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Revenue is projected to grow from 14,767 million RMB in 2023 to 19,797 million RMB in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.2% [6]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 2,929 million RMB in 2023 to 4,300 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 18.5% [6]. - The fully diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.28 RMB in 2023 to 1.88 RMB in 2025 [6]. - **Margins and Returns**: - The gross margin is expected to improve from 31.8% in 2023 to 32.91% in 2025, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 18.4% to 21.96% over the same period [6][16]. Business Segment Performance - **Commercial Segment**: - The commercial segment achieved retail sales of 215 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, outperforming the retail sales growth of the broader market [11][12]. - The company opened 21 new shopping centers in 2024, bringing the total to 122 operational centers, with 50 centers leading in local market sales [11][12]. - **Property Management Segment**: - The total managed area reached 413 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, with a focus on expanding in first and second-tier cities [13]. - The company signed 3,485 million square meters of new third-party contracts, enhancing its market position [13]. - **Membership Business**: - The membership program saw a 32.0% increase in total members, reaching 61.07 million, with significant growth in cross-industry point redemption [17]