Group 1: Fixed Income Plus Product Performance Tracking - As of March 28, 2025, there are 1,162 fixed income plus funds in the market, with a total scale of 15,703.02 billion [3][7][8] - The median performance of various fund types for the week of March 24-28, 2025, is as follows: mixed bond type I fund 0.13%, mixed bond type II fund 0.10%, partially bond mixed fund 0.11%, flexible allocation fund 0.12%, bond type FOF fund 0.09%, and mixed type FOF fund 0.10% [12][14] - The performance median for conservative, stable, and aggressive funds during the same period is 0.12%, 0.11%, and 0.11% respectively [12][14] Group 2: Major Asset Allocation and Industry ETF Rotation Strategy Tracking - The macro environment forecast for Q2 2025 indicates inflation, with the March returns for the CSI 300 Index, China Government Bond Total Wealth Index, and Shanghai Gold Exchange AU9999 contract being 0.65%, -0.53%, and 7.14% respectively [3][4] - Recommended industry ETFs for March 2025 include: Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF (512400.SH), Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF (512880.SH), Guotai CSI Coal ETF (515220.SH), E Fund CSI Petrochemical Industry ETF (516570.SH), and Guotai CSI All-Share Communication Equipment ETF (515880.SH) [3][4] Group 3: Absolute Return Strategy Performance Tracking - The macro timing-based stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded a weekly return of 0.19% with a cumulative return of -1.15% for 2025 [3][4] - The macro timing-based stock-bond risk parity strategy achieved a weekly return of 0.23% and a cumulative return of -0.87% for 2025 [3][4] - The macro timing and industry ETF rotation-based stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy had a weekly return of -0.02% and a cumulative return of -0.79% for 2025 [3][4]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务/信息科技服务 证券研究报告 汉朔科技（301275）公司研究报告 2025 年 04 月 01 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 31 日收盘价（元）] | 69.15 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 66.11-86.96 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 422/32 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 29209/2196 | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -8.40% -0.40% 7.60% 15.60% 23.60% 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 汉朔科技 海通综指 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M | 绝对涨幅（%） | - | - | - | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对涨幅（%） | - | - | - | | 资料来源：海通证券研究所 | | | | 分析师:杨林 Tel:(021)23183969 Tel:(021) ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][10][20] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.716 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 922 million yuan, a decrease of 24.15% year-on-year [5][6] - The company's profitability is under pressure primarily due to macroeconomic factors and a sluggish liquid market, with a gross margin of 20.85% and a net margin of 7.23% in 2024 [6][12] - The gas sales revenue was 8.1 billion yuan, down 1.15% year-on-year, while the revenue from air separation equipment increased by 6.77% to 4.525 billion yuan [6][18] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.364 billion yuan, down 4.68% year-on-year, and a net profit of 247 million yuan, down 32.26% year-on-year [5][6] - The company expects a recovery in gas sales and profitability in the coming years, with projected revenues of 16.04 billion yuan in 2025 and 17.49 billion yuan in 2026 [8][23] Business Segments - The gas business continues to expand, with six new gas investment projects signed in 2024, increasing the total oxygen production capacity to 3.5 million Nm³/h [7][12] - The equipment business is accelerating its internationalization, with a record high order amount of 5.512 billion yuan for air separation equipment in 2024 [7][19] Market Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the industrial gas sector, with a strong cash flow and the ability to penetrate various downstream industries [20][22] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.06 yuan, with a reasonable valuation range of 25.50 to 27.63 yuan per share based on a PE ratio of 24-26 times [10][20]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务/软件 证券研究报告 恒生电子（600570）公司年报点评 2025 年 04 月 01 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 04[Table_StockInfo 月 01日收盘价（元）] | 27.61 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 15.23-37.30 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 1892/1892 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 52232/52232 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《Q3 业绩仍承压，市场回暖经营拐点或将到 | | | 来》2024.11.08 | | | 《营收持稳利润承压，股权激励彰显信心》 | | 2024.09.10 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -32.62% -15.62% 1.38% 18.38% 35.38% 52.38% 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 恒生电子 海通综指 | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | ...

股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 31 日收盘价（元）] | 34.84 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 11.75-44.41 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 599/599 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 20857/20857 | | 相关研究 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -21.27% 19.73% 60.73% 101.73% 142.73% 183.73% 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 数据港 海通综指 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M | 绝对涨幅（%） | -1.6 | 66.1 | 68.3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对涨幅（%） | -2.2 | 63.5 | 70.0 | | 资料来源：海通证券研究所 | | | | | 分析师:余伟民 | | --- | | Tel:(010)50949926 | | Email:ywm11574@haitong.com | | 证书:S0850517090006 | | 分析师:杨彤昕 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/石油天然气/石油天然气 证券研究报告 中国石油（601857）公司年报点评 2025 年 04 月 01 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 04[Table_StockInfo 月 01日收盘价（元）] 8.25 | | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） 7.55-11.06 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） 183021/161922 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 1509923/1509923 | | 相关研究 | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《克服油价下跌影响，实现盈利环比增长》 | | 2024.11.01 | | 《单季度净利润维持在 400 亿元以上》 | | 2024.08.29 | | 《盈利稳定增长，创一季度历史新高》 | | 2024.05.01 | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInfo] | -22.48% -16.48% -10.48% -4.48% 1.52% 7.52% 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 中国石油 海通 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating an expected relative performance above the market benchmark [9][14][20]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant improvements in lean management, leading to accelerated performance in emerging sectors such as low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence [6][7]. - The financial forecasts predict a steady growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a projected revenue of 36.09 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [9][14]. - The report highlights the company's strategic initiatives in various emerging industries, aiming to establish a new industrial ecosystem through technological breakthroughs and standard-setting [7][8]. Financial Performance and Forecast - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2023: Revenue of 28.89 billion yuan, net profit of 199 million yuan - 2024: Revenue of 32.07 billion yuan, net profit of 352 million yuan, YoY growth of 11.01% and 76.59% respectively - 2025E: Revenue of 36.09 billion yuan, net profit of 408 million yuan, YoY growth of 12.5% and 15.9% respectively - 2026E: Revenue of 40.43 billion yuan, net profit of 477 million yuan, YoY growth of 12.0% and 16.8% respectively - 2027E: Revenue of 44.81 billion yuan, net profit of 554 million yuan, YoY growth of 10.8% and 16.2% respectively [6][9][14]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Gross margin is expected to improve from 42.3% in 2023 to 47.6% in 2027 - Net asset return is projected to increase from 5.5% in 2023 to 14.5% in 2027 [6][9][14]. Business Segments and Growth Drivers - **Measurement Services**: Revenue growth of 5.0% annually, with a gross margin of 50.5% [9][10]. - **Integrated Circuit Testing and Analysis**: Expected revenue growth of 30.0% in 2025, with a gross margin of 45.5% [10][11]. - **Electromagnetic Compatibility Testing**: Anticipated revenue growth of 12.0% in 2025, with a gross margin of 55.0% [11][12]. - **Life Sciences**: Revenue growth of 4.0% in 2025, with a gross margin of 40.0% [12][13]. - **Data Science Analysis and Evaluation**: Projected revenue growth of 23.0% in 2025, with a gross margin of 56.0% [13][14]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company at 23.10-24.50 yuan per share based on a PE ratio of 33-35 times for 2025, considering the company's higher growth rate compared to peers [9][14][15]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is noted to be 25.52 times for 2025, indicating the company's growth potential justifies a premium valuation [9][15].

固定收益研究 证券研究报告 地方债月报 2025 年 4 月 1 日 全年隐债置换进度逾三分之二 ——地方政府债券月报 第一，截至 2025 年 3 月，地方政府债共发行 463 只，总规模 2.84 万亿元。 截至 3 月 31 日，2025 年地方政府债共发行 463 只，总规模 2.84 万亿元。具体来看，山东、福建、湖北、广 东、北京发行数量最多，分别发行 39、33、28、27、27 只地方政府债；从发行规模来看，江苏、广东、山东、四 川发行债券规模位列前位，分别为 4047.94 亿元、2068.85 亿元、2052.68 亿元和 1638.27 亿元。 图2 地方债发行进度（发行量：亿元） 图3 地方债发行进度（净融资额：亿元） 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/112/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 金融工程研究 证券研究报告 金融工程月报 2025 年 04 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《风格及行业观点月报（2025.03）》 2025.03.03 《大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.03）》 2025.03.03 《大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.02）》 2025.02.10 大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.04） [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 风险提示：模型失效风险、因子失效风险、海外市场波动风险。 分析师:郑雅斌 Tel:(021)23219395 Email:zhengyb@haitong.com 证书:S0850511040004 联系人:曹君豪 Tel:(021)23185657 Email:cjh13945@haitong.com 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_AuthorInfo] 大类资产 2 季度配臵信号。根据 2025 年 3 月底的最新数据，信用利差和期限利 差均发出收窄信号，Q2 宏观环境预测结果为 Inflation。 宏观动量模型配臵信 ...

- Model Name: Macro + Price-Volume Dual-Drive Large-Cap Rotation Strategy - Model Construction Idea: Integrate effective factors from macroeconomic and micro price-volume dimensions to drive large-cap style rotation[6] - Model Construction Process: - Combine signals from various factors such as monetary flow, PMI quarterly average, social financing weighted year-on-year, China-US interest rate spread, macro adjustment momentum, narrow style crowding, and broad large-cap crowding[7] - Assign signal values: 1 for large-cap signal, -1 for small-cap signal, 0 for no effective signal[7] - Formula: $ \text{Comprehensive Score} = \sum \text{Factor Signals} $ - Allocation: - If comprehensive score > 0, allocate fully to CSI 300 Index - If comprehensive score < 0, allocate fully to CSI 1000 Index - If comprehensive score = 0, equally allocate to CSI 300 and CSI 1000 Index[7] - Model Evaluation: The backtest win rate for Q1 2025 is 82.22%[6] - Model Name: Macro Price-Volume Dual-Drive Value-Growth Rotation Strategy - Model Construction Idea: Integrate effective factors from macroeconomic and micro price-volume dimensions to drive value-growth style rotation[11] - Model Construction Process: - Combine signals from various factors such as PMI new orders weighted month-on-month, PPI-CPI quarterly average difference, 1Y government bond quarterly average difference, 3M US bond level, macro adjustment momentum, style crowding, and market sentiment[12] - Assign signal values: 1 for value signal, -1 for growth signal, 0 for no effective signal[12] - Formula: $ \text{Comprehensive Score} = \sum \text{Factor Signals} $ - Allocation: - If comprehensive score > 0, allocate fully to CSI Value Index - If comprehensive score < 0, allocate fully to CSI Growth Index - If comprehensive score = 0, equally allocate to CSI Value and CSI Growth Index[12] - Model Evaluation: The backtest win rate for Q1 2025 is 77.78%[11] - Factor Name: Composite Factor Strategy - Factor Construction Idea: Integrate factors from historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, price-volume technicals, and macroeconomic dimensions to score industries[2] - Factor Construction Process: - Select 5 industries from 30 primary industries in CITIC, construct an equal-weighted long portfolio[17] - Evaluate performance based on absolute and excess returns[20] - Factor Evaluation: Composite factor strategy's excess return for March is 1.45%[2] - Factor Name: Single Factor Multi-Strategy - Factor Construction Idea: Use individual factors from historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, price-volume technicals, and macroeconomic dimensions to score industries[2] - Factor Construction Process: - Select 5 industries from 30 primary industries in CITIC, construct an equal-weighted long portfolio[17] - Evaluate performance based on absolute and excess returns[20] - Factor Evaluation: Single factor multi-strategy's excess return for March is 2.52%[2] Model Backtest Results - Macro + Price-Volume Dual-Drive Large-Cap Rotation Strategy - Interval Return: -1.21%[9] - Annualized Return: -4.92%[10] - Annualized Volatility: 14.80%[10] - Maximum Drawdown: 5.40%[10] - Sharpe Ratio: -0.33[10] - Calmar Ratio: -0.91[10] - Macro Price-Volume Dual-Drive Value-Growth Rotation Strategy - Interval Return: 0.46%[15] - Annualized Return: 1.94%[16] - Annualized Volatility: 17.51%[16] - Maximum Drawdown: 5.23%[16] - Sharpe Ratio: 0.11[16] - Calmar Ratio: 0.37[16] Factor Backtest Results - Composite Factor Strategy - Last Month Absolute Return: 1.34%[20] - Last Month Excess Return: 1.45%[20] - 2025 Absolute Return: 6.37%[20] - 2025 Excess Return: 5.94%[20] - Single Factor Multi-Strategy - Last Month Absolute Return: 2.41%[20] - Last Month Excess Return: 2.52%[20] - 2025 Absolute Return: 4.29%[20] - 2025 Excess Return: 4.05%[20]