Macroeconomic Insights - China will impose a 34% tariff on all imports from the United States starting April 10, 2025, which is expected to significantly reduce agricultural imports from the U.S. [3] - In 2024, China imported agricultural products worth $24.9 billion from the U.S., with major imports including soybeans (22.1 million tons), sorghum (5.7 million tons), corn (2.1 million tons), and wheat (1.9 million tons) [3]. Agricultural Sector - The increase in tariffs is likely to enhance domestic grain prices and benefit the planting industry chain, emphasizing the need for self-sufficiency in grain production [3]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements in agriculture, particularly in genetically modified and gene-edited crops, which are expected to accelerate, benefiting seed companies with leading technology reserves [3]. - The report recommends focusing on companies that are actively expanding their domestic brands in the pet food sector, such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which primarily generate revenue from domestic sales [4]. Livestock Industry - The report indicates that the pig farming sector is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability for the 2024 annual report and the first quarter of 2025, driven by favorable pig prices and reduced costs [5]. - The analysis of March's supply and demand dynamics in the pig farming industry shows a balanced market, but a potential downward trend in prices is anticipated if there is no support from state reserves [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the poultry sector include Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Lihua Shares; for the post-cycle sector, recommended stocks are KQ Bio, Haida Group; in the pig farming sector, recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Bio, and Shennong Group [7]. - In the seed industry, recommended stocks include Fengle Seed Industry, Quanyin High-Tech, Longping High-Tech, and Dabeinong [7]. - In the pet sector, recommended stocks are Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipu Bio [7]. Chemical Industry - The report suggests that the imposition of a 34% tariff on U.S. imports will accelerate the domestic substitution process for chemical products, particularly in high-end markets [17]. - Beneficiary products include lubricant additives, nucleating agents, adsorption separation resins, and nano-silica, with specific companies recommended for investment [19]. Rare Earth Industry - The report maintains an "overweight" rating on the rare earth sector, anticipating that the recent tariffs will enhance China's strategic advantages in rare earth production and lead to price increases due to supply-demand mismatches [22]. - The export control measures on heavy rare earths are expected to stimulate overseas stockpiling, further driving up prices [23]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is projected to see stable growth in 2025, with a focus on improving asset-liability matching strategies [25]. - The report recommends increasing holdings in companies like China Pacific Insurance and New China Life Insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved investment returns and stable business strategies [40].

低利率环境下，资负匹配定保险股价值 [Table_Industry] 保险 ——上市险企 2024 年年报综述 | | | | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 李嘉木(分析师) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880524030003 | | 本报告导读： 2024 年上市险企价值率推动 NBV 景气增长，投资收益提振推动利润大幅提升；长 端利率下行对 CSM 及净资产造成冲击，预计资负联动更为重要，维持"增持"。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.06 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：负债端看，预定利率调整、分红险占比提升以及全渠道 报行合一的实施将推动行业负债成本的下移，预计 2025 年上市公司 NBV 回归平稳增长；投资端看，由于近年刚性负债成本的抬升，预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [1][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to enhance its competitiveness through strengthening product R&D capabilities, supply chain capabilities, operational management, brand influence, and digital capabilities [2]. - The company's performance in 2024 was below expectations, with a decline in same-store revenue and a slowdown in store opening growth. Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered to 7.18 billion and 7.88 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 of 8.62 billion RMB [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is reported at 49.18 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.72 billion RMB, down 59% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit is 6.45 billion RMB, a decline of 49% [5][6]. - The company had a total of 8,395 stores by the end of 2024, an increase of 8% year-on-year, with 8,382 being franchise stores and 13 being directly operated stores. The net increase in franchise stores was 587 [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.2%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased support for franchisees [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 19.14 CNY [2][11]. Core Views - The company is advancing its "Three Expansion" strategy, focusing on franchise, live streaming, and AI business layouts, indicating a positive long-term development outlook [3]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 8,753 million CNY, which is expected to grow to 9,337 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a 6.7% increase. By 2027, revenue is projected to reach 12,654 million CNY [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 105 million CNY in 2023, with a significant increase to 181 million CNY in 2024, marking a 72.4% growth. The forecast for 2027 is a net profit of 621 million CNY [5][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.08 CNY in 2023 to 0.14 CNY in 2024, and further to 0.49 CNY by 2027 [5][11]. Operational Highlights - The company added 96 new stores in 2024 while closing 75, resulting in a total of 1,046 stores by year-end [11]. - The company has initiated a franchise model, with 9 new franchise stores generating 1.09 million CNY in revenue [11]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 29.7%, with a net profit margin of 2.68% after adjusting for convertible bonds and stock incentives [11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories, particularly in non-standard and mid-to-large children's products, with a revenue contribution of 12.3% and a growth rate of 22.3% [11]. - The company is also enhancing its operational efficiency through a self-built traceable delivery system, covering over 200 cities [11]. - Collaborations with partners for live streaming and smart incubators are part of the company's strategy to enhance its market presence [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][23]. Core Viewpoints - The company's business development is stable and improving, with an increase in both quantity and quality of operations [3]. - The property management services are experiencing steady growth, and profitability is on the rise [7][8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its non-residential business to enhance operational independence [10][13]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's total revenue is projected to increase by 7.5% to HKD 14.024 billion, with a gross profit increase of 12.4% to HKD 2.326 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 16.6%, up 0.7 percentage points from 2023 [6][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 12.5% to HKD 1.511 billion, with basic and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 0.46, reflecting a 12.6% year-on-year growth [6][8]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 32.7%, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points compared to 2023 [8]. Business Analysis Summary - As of the end of 2024, the company manages 448 retail projects and 2,232 property projects, covering a service area of approximately 431 million square meters [10][13]. - Revenue from property management services is expected to reach HKD 10.666 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, accounting for 76.1% of total revenue [13]. - The gross margin for property management services is anticipated to improve to 16.0%, driven by effective cost control measures [14]. Dividend Analysis - The company plans to declare a total dividend of HKD 0.18 per share for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 35.7% and a dividend yield of 3.52% [21][25]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to have an EPS of HKD 0.51 in 2025, with a valuation range of HKD 6.16 to HKD 7.70 per share based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12-15 times [23][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in core business in the second half of 2024, alongside the rise of AI-related products and services [6][9] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 16.95 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.62%, with full-stack AI products contributing 957 million yuan, accounting for 5.65% of total revenue [9] - The report emphasizes a multi-dimensional improvement in gross margin and effective cost control measures [9] Financial Data and Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 17.23 billion yuan - 2024: 16.95 billion yuan (YoY -1.6%) - 2025E: 18.65 billion yuan (YoY +10.0%) - 2026E: 20.88 billion yuan (YoY +12.0%) - 2027E: 24.02 billion yuan (YoY +15.0%) [8][10] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 713.39 million yuan - 2024: 512.93 million yuan (YoY -28.1%) - 2025E: 707.65 million yuan (YoY +38.0%) - 2026E: 883.31 million yuan (YoY +24.8%) - 2027E: 1.12 billion yuan (YoY +26.5%) [8][10] Business Segmentation - The revenue breakdown by business segment for 2024 is: - Technical Professional Services (TPG): 14.77 billion yuan (YoY -1.7%) - Internet Information Technology Services (IIG): 2.18 billion yuan (YoY +4%) [9][10] - The top five customers account for 57.4% of service revenue, while the top ten customers account for 65.1% [9] Profitability and Cost Management - The company aims to improve gross margin through: - Increasing the proportion of high-margin services - Transitioning to productized software and hardware offerings - Integrating AI tools into delivery processes [9] - The gross profit for 2024 is projected at 3.74 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.1% [9] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a dynamic PE of 23-27 times for 2025, with a 6-month fair value range of 6.43-7.55 HKD [9] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the AI sector, particularly through its partnerships and product offerings [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The company has achieved over 100% growth in its generative AI business, which has become its largest revenue source, accounting for 63.7% of total revenue in 2024 [6][8] - The company completed a restructuring of its "1+X" organizational framework, focusing resources on core businesses, particularly generative AI and visual AI [6] - The company is set to release its new model, "Riri Xin 6.0," in Q2 2025, which is expected to significantly enhance multimodal understanding and interaction capabilities [6] - The company maintains a leading position in the visual AI market, with a customer repurchase rate increase of 31 percentage points in 2024 [8] - The company has made significant advancements in its autonomous driving business, with over 1.1 million new designated vehicles added in 2024 [8] Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 34.06 billion CNY in 2023 to 73.97 billion CNY by 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27% in 2027 [6][9] - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 6.44 billion CNY in 2023 to a profit of 305 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [6][9] - The gross margin is forecasted to increase from 44.07% in 2023 to 57.82% in 2027 [6][9] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to turn positive by 2026, reaching 1.33% in 2027 [6][9] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 1.47 HKD on April 1, 2025, with a market capitalization of 54.401 billion HKD [2] - The stock has experienced a 52-week price range of 0.58 to 2.35 HKD [2] Valuation - The company is assigned a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 16-20 times for 2025, indicating a fair value range of 2.15 to 2.69 HKD per share [6][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][18]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 142.99 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while the core net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.27 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year [7]. - The property development business contributed 138.62 billion yuan to revenue, accounting for approximately 97% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 13.3% and a net profit margin of 3.4% in 2024 [7]. - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 50%, proposing a final dividend of 1.2 HKD per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.4% based on the closing price on March 26, 2025 [7][18]. - The company ranked 7th in the sales performance among the top 100 real estate companies in 2024, with a total contract signing amount of 133.5 billion yuan [7]. - The company has a strong liquidity position with cash on hand amounting to 57.26 billion yuan and a net debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 31.78% [7]. Financial Data and Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 134.43 billion yuan in 2023 to 142.99 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% [6]. - The net profit is expected to decrease slightly from 4.34 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.27 billion yuan in 2024, with a forecasted recovery to 4.72 billion yuan in 2025 [6]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 11.1% in 2023 to 13.27% in 2024, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 13.0% to 11.36% [6][7]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.34 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8-10 times, leading to a reasonable market capitalization range of 41.2-51.5 billion HKD [18]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 16.42 HKD on April 1, with a 52-week price range of 10.06-19.58 HKD [2]. - The company’s absolute performance over the last month was a gain of 2.53%, while it underperformed the Hang Seng Index over the last two and three months [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.314 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 41% [4] - The gross margin improved to 72.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Adjusted net profit reached 131 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.0%, up by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Adjusted EBITDA was 500 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 64%, with an EBITDA margin of 11.5%, up by 1.6 percentage points [6] Summary of Relevant Sections Market Performance - The company's stock showed an absolute increase of 31.59% over the last three months [3] Store Performance - Same-store sales grew by 2.5% for the year, marking 30 consecutive quarters of positive growth [5] - The average daily sales per store were 13,100 yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, with a decline in average transaction value by 5% [5] - The total number of stores reached 1,008 by the end of 2024, with a net addition of 240 stores during the year [5] Profitability and Cost Management - The operating profit margin for the company was 14.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Employee costs accounted for 27.5% of revenue, up by 0.6 percentage points due to the expansion of new market stores [6] Valuation Forecast - Revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 5.437 billion yuan and 7.033 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26% and 29% [7] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 188 million yuan, reflecting a 43.6% year-on-year increase [7] - The company is assigned a price-to-sales (PS) valuation of 2.5-3 times for 2025, resulting in a fair value range of 111.2 to 133.5 HKD per share [7]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/房地产/房地产 证券研究报告 新城控股（601155）公司年报点评 2025 年 04 月 02 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 04[Table_StockInfo 月 02日收盘价（元）] 12.36 | | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） 7.95-16.70 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） 2256/2256 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 27879/27879 | | 相关研究 | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《商业收入保持稳定，出租率持续提升》 | | 2024.11.18 | | 《毛利率转升，租金收入贡献稳定现金流》 | | 2024.09.05 | | 《减值计提影响利润，租金收入再提升》 | | 2024.05.29 | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInfo] 新城控股 | | 海通综指 | -14.01% 4.99% 23.99% 42.99% 61.99% 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 沪深 300 对比 1M ...