| | | | | 目 录 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 每日报告精选（2025-11-27 09:00——2025-11-28 15:00） 2 | | |  | 宏观专题：《同比转负，有待需求提振》2025-11-27 | 2 | |  | 海外策略研究：《一页纸精读行业比较数据：11 月》2025-11-27 | 2 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：消费电子《大厂加速推进 AI 手机，硬件创新持续涌现》2025-11-28 | 3 | |  | 行业专题研究：医药《美国 IRA 第二批谈判价格公布》2025-11-27 | 3 | |  | 行业策略：有色金属《大鹏一日同风起》2025-11-27 | 4 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：军工《我国商业航天事业有望驶入快车道》2025-11-27 | 5 | |  | 公司跟踪报告：杰瑞股份（002353）《获取全球 AI 行业巨头发电机组超 1 亿美元订单，发电领域加速发展》 | | | | 2025-11-28 | 6 | |  | 公司跟踪报告：博彦科技（002649）《经营质量提升，新行业新业务拓展顺利》2025 ...

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【策略研究】：我国险资/理财/养老金规模超 70 万亿且持续增长，资产配置呈"固收为基、权 益渐进"特征。险资/社保重仓 A 股以金融为核心，同时逐步提升科技等成长领域配置。 2、【生物医药研究】医药：美国 IRA 谈判第二批价格公布，最高降幅达到 85%，价格将从 2027 年 1 月开始施行。由于谈判产品均接近专利悬崖，整体影响有限。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 方奕(分析师) 021-38031658 fangyi2@gtht.com S0880520120005 郭佼佼(分析师) 021-38031042 guojiaojiao2@gtht.com S0880523070002 策略专题报告：《中国中长期资金的制度、配置与空间》2025- 11-25 政策端：加快推动中长期资金入市。2 ...

Group 1: Macro Research - The global commodity and stock markets have experienced significant declines recently, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 5.1% and the Shanghai Composite Index down by 3.9% [7][18] - The Chinese stock market is entering a critical phase, referred to as the "strike zone," where it is expected to stabilize and potentially rally due to upcoming policy and economic meetings [2][4] - The report emphasizes that the Chinese capital market is in a period of significant growth, with a projected double-digit profit growth of 10.6% for non-financial A-shares in 2026 [3][4] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The report recommends increasing exposure to sectors such as technology, financial services, and consumer goods, particularly in light of the anticipated policy and liquidity improvements from December to February [4][6] - Specific sectors highlighted for investment include AI-related technologies, financial institutions like brokerages and insurance, and consumer sectors such as food and beverage [4][6] - The report notes that the adjustment in the market presents a good opportunity for investors to increase their positions in the Chinese market [2][4] Group 3: Overseas Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a phase of adjustment, primarily due to previous gains and tightening dollar liquidity, but the long-term bull market is expected to continue [10][30] - The report indicates that the AI industry remains a key driver for growth in the Hong Kong market, with significant inflows expected from institutional investors [30][29] - The report also highlights the unique advantages of Hong Kong assets compared to A-shares, particularly in alignment with trends in AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [10][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 6.02% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a total revenue of 216.28 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 53.22 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.54% increase [10]. - The introduction of new product categories has been a highlight, with revenue from soy sauce, oyster sauce, seasoning sauces, and other condiments increasing by 7.9%, 5.9%, 9.6%, and 13.4% respectively [10]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 improved to 39.63%, up by 3.02 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in prices of key raw materials such as soybeans and sugar [10]. Financial Summary - The company’s total market capitalization is 224.827 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 5,852 million shares [3]. - The net asset per share is 6.76 yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 5.7 [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.20, 1.35, and 1.51 yuan, respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 11%, 12%, and 12% [10][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 24.559 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.652 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.4% [9][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 5.627 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.860 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [9][11].

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is positioned as a perennial growth sector due to aging populations, urbanization, and changing disease profiles, with a strong recovery expected in 2025 after a downturn from 2022 to 2024, driven by both innovative drugs and medical devices [2][3] - Demand and supply dynamics will remain central to the pharmaceutical industry's research, with innovation cycles and policy adjustments influencing demand growth [2][3] - The supply side is characterized by limited supply and high entry barriers, with increasing participation of Chinese companies in international competition, leading to the emergence of world-class enterprises in the pharmaceutical sector [3][4] Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to see significant growth in 2025, driven by a resurgence in demand for innovative drugs and a recovery in domestic medical device needs, alongside strong external demand [2] - The demand for pharmaceuticals typically fluctuates with innovation and policy cycles, with a notable increase in overseas business development (BD) opportunities anticipated in 2025 [2][5] - The Chinese pharmaceutical sector is increasingly recognized globally, with local companies making strides in various niche markets [3][4] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in innovative drugs are highlighted, particularly in oncology, metabolic diseases, and autoimmune diseases, with a focus on next-generation therapies and precision medicine [5][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the supply-demand structure and industry upgrades when conducting detailed research on specific segments within the pharmaceutical industry [4][5] - The report identifies key players and segments for investment, including CXO services, medical devices, and consumer healthcare, with specific companies recommended for increased holdings [6][5] Market Dynamics - The report outlines the competitive landscape among top global pharmaceutical companies, noting significant changes in rankings due to the performance of key products [11][19] - Chinese companies are becoming a major source of projects for multinational corporations (MNCs), with increasing transaction volumes and values in recent years [19][21] - The report discusses the strategic focus of MNCs on acquiring innovative assets and technologies to strengthen their market positions, particularly in oncology and metabolic disease sectors [12][18] Future Trends - The report anticipates breakthroughs in various therapeutic areas, including oncology, metabolic diseases, and autoimmune diseases, with a focus on innovative treatment modalities such as TCE and in vivo CAR-T [29][30] - The small nucleic acid field is expected to accelerate, with significant advancements anticipated in 2026 across multiple indications [29][30] - The report highlights the importance of collaboration and co-development models as a means for Chinese companies to enhance their global competitiveness [25][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook on the construction materials industry, highlighting specific companies as key recommendations for investment opportunities [2][6][19]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that both domestic demand hedging and TACO trading are merely processes of value discovery, suggesting that companies with high economic prospects and room for valuation growth will accelerate price discovery [2][3]. - It identifies a shift in focus towards companies that are expected to show resilience and growth potential, particularly in the context of domestic demand recovery and global demand expectations [4][12]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand Hedging - Companies recommended under domestic demand hedging include Oriental Yuhong, Hanhigh Group, and Huaxin Cement, which are expected to show positive revenue trends in Q3 [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of infrastructure projects in regions like Xinjiang, predicting a significant increase in cement demand due to major construction initiatives [7][9]. TACO Trading - The report suggests that the glass fiber and CCL industry chain will benefit from global demand expectations, with price increases observed in electronic fabrics and copper-clad laminates [3][5]. - Key companies in this segment include China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology, which are positioned to capitalize on the ongoing price increase cycle [6][15]. Cement Industry - The cement sector is noted for its potential growth driven by policy execution and governance improvements, with overseas expansion opportunities highlighted for companies like Huaxin Cement [34][38]. - The report indicates that the cement market is entering a phase of price stabilization, with a focus on limiting overproduction and enhancing governance [35][41]. Glass and Fiberglass - The glass sector is experiencing a recovery, particularly in photovoltaic glass, with companies like Fuyao Glass and Xinyi Glass expected to see improved profitability [10][12]. - The report notes that the fiberglass sector is witnessing a strong performance, with significant contributions from price increases in electronic fabrics [10][14]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment is showing signs of recovery, with companies like Sanke Tree and Beixin Building Materials expected to benefit from improved revenue performance in Q3 [19][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost reduction and price stabilization in enhancing profitability for companies in this sector [26][27]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as China Jushi, Huaxin Cement, and Oriental Yuhong, as they are expected to outperform in the current market environment [6][17][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 30.99 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company has successfully won the bid for a low-temperature liquid helium testing system project related to controlled nuclear fusion, marking significant progress in this strategic emerging industry [2][11]. - The company has actively participated in the energy and chemical construction in Xinjiang, achieving over one million cubic meters of oxygen production in the region during the first three quarters [2][11]. - The financial forecast indicates a steady increase in total revenue from 13.31 billion CNY in 2023 to 19.18 billion CNY in 2027, with a projected net profit of 1.22 billion CNY in 2026 [3][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 13,309 million CNY in 2023 to 19,175 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.6% [3][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 1,216 million CNY in 2023 to 922 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 1,355 million CNY by 2027 [3][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.24 CNY in 2023, dropping to 0.94 CNY in 2024, and then gradually increasing to 1.39 CNY by 2027 [3][12]. Market Data - The current stock price is 26.80 CNY, with a market capitalization of 26,220 million CNY [6]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of 18.20 CNY to 27.13 CNY [6]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 9.69 CNY, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.8 [7]. Valuation Comparison - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 28.95, with the company being assigned a PE of 29 for its valuation [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6][12]. Core Views - The recent approval of a new indication for the innovative drug Puyouke for acute ischemic stroke treatment validates the company's R&D capabilities and enhances its market competitiveness [2][12]. - The approval of the new indication is expected to expand the sales potential of Puyouke, which is a first-class biological innovative drug supported by national major drug creation projects [12]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 0.77, 0.83, and 0.89 yuan respectively, with a target price set at 19.25 yuan based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25X for 2025 [12][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 8,674 million yuan in 2023, with a slight decrease to 8,498 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 8,649 million yuan in 2025, and further growth to 9,071 million yuan in 2026 and 9,548 million yuan in 2027 [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise significantly from 1,071 million yuan in 2023 to 1,325 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 505.3% in 2023 followed by a decline of 10.8% in 2024, and then a steady increase in subsequent years [4][13]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 8.7% in 2023 to 9.6% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4][13]. Market Data - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of 13.61 to 17.41 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 24,187 million yuan [7][12]. - The current stock price is 16.19 yuan, which is below the target price of 19.25 yuan, suggesting potential upside for investors [12][13].

Group 1: Downstream Consumption - The real estate market in major cities continues to improve, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increasing by 20.3% year-on-year, and the transaction area in first-tier cities rising by 68.8% [7][8] - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a slight increase of 1.0% year-on-year, with the price war in the car market easing, and air conditioning domestic sales increased by 1.2% year-on-year [9][11] - The service consumption index in Hainan increased by 1.3% month-on-month, and the box office revenue for movies surged by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year [15][17] Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand has marginally improved, with the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils increasing by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively, and the operating rate of blast furnaces at 84.0% [18][19] - Manufacturing operating rates have generally improved, with the operating rates for half-steel and full-steel tires at 73.7% and 65.7% respectively, showing a slight increase [28][30] Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have risen significantly, with the price of Q5500 thermal coal at 704 yuan per ton, up 3.5% week-on-week due to tight supply and increased pre-holiday stocking demand [38][41] - Industrial metal prices are under pressure, with copper and aluminum prices decreasing by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively, influenced by hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials [43][44] Group 4: Logistics and Passenger Flow - Long-distance passenger transport demand has improved, with domestic flight operations increasing by 0.5% week-on-week and 5.0% year-on-year [52][57] - The logistics sector has shown a recovery, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume increasing by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively [58][59]

Market Performance - Global markets experienced a slight increase last week, with MSCI Global up by 1.0%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 1.0%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 1.1% [8][9] - Among developed markets, the Nasdaq Index showed the strongest performance with a rise of 2.2%, while the Australian S&P 200 was the weakest, declining by 1.0% [8][9] - In the emerging markets, the ChiNext Index performed best with a gain of 2.3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.3% [8][9] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume in European and American stock markets significantly increased, while the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks dropped to a historical low of 11.8% [17][21] - The Hang Seng Index's trading volume decreased to 177 billion shares with a total turnover of 918 billion USD, while the S&P 500's trading volume increased to 62 billion shares with a turnover of 82,150 billion USD [17] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved, reaching historical highs, while sentiment in the US declined but remained elevated [17] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks were revised upward, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast increased from 2066 to 2068 [59][60] - In contrast, the S&P 500's earnings expectations remained flat at 269, while the Eurozone STOXX50's earnings expectations also held steady at 337 [59][60] - Sector-wise, the energy sector in Hong Kong saw the largest upward revision in earnings expectations, while the consumer staples sector experienced the most significant downward adjustment [59][60] Economic Expectations - Economic expectations in Europe and the US improved, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rising due to the Fed's rate cut and tech giants accelerating AI infrastructure investments [8][59] - Conversely, China's Economic Surprise Index declined, impacted by US-China trade negotiations and weaker-than-expected economic data for August [8] Fund Flows - Following the Fed's rate cut, market speculation regarding future rate cuts intensified, with futures markets indicating an expectation of 1.8 rate cuts by the end of the year [46][52] - Global liquidity trends showed significant inflows into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea, with Hong Kong experiencing a net inflow of 292 billion HKD last week [53][58] - The inflow included 145 billion HKD from stable foreign capital, while flexible foreign capital saw an outflow of 130 billion HKD [53]