国泰海通晨报 2025 年 08 月 29 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【海外科技研究】英伟达：本季网络表现亮眼，GB300 爬坡顺利，H20 仍存不确定性，Q3 业 绩存在上修可能。Capex 叙事延续，长期看好英伟达受益于 AI 基础设施建设。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 秦和平(分析师) 0755-23976666 qinheping@gtht.com S0880523110003 刁云鹏(研究助理) 021-38674878 diaoyunpeng@gtht.com S0880125070016 本次评级：增持 海外报告：英伟达(NVDA.O)《稳定交付超预期业绩，AI 大基 建能见度至 2030 年》2025-08-28 盈利预测与投资建议：我们调整 FY2026E-FY2028E 营收预测为 2096/3065/3830 亿美元（前值为 2028/25 ...

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 08 月 28 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【机械研究】银都股份：受关税与海运费影响，公司 2025 年 H1 盈利阶段性承压；公司以品牌 自主化与全球化战略为核心驱动力，持续推动渠道拓展与产能升级，北美市场影响力显著提升。 2、【石油化工研究】新奥股份：公司天然气上下游一体化布局完善，2025 年一季度公司业绩基本 保持稳定，收购新奥能源后未来成长可期。 3、【交通运输研究】航空：2025 年暑运供给低增且因私旺盛，公商务意外走弱致旺季平淡，但大 额盈利仍将可期。针对飞机大单报道，我们认为飞机订购不改规划低增。建议逆向增持航空。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 肖群稀(分析师) 0755-23976830 xiaoqunxi@gtht.com S0880522120001 赵玥炜(分析师) 021-23185630 zhaoyuewei@ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Goer Group plans to acquire Shanghai Aolai through its subsidiary Goer Optics, which will enhance its optical waveguide capacity and technical strength, accelerating the integration of optical products into global leading XR clients [1][2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Goer Group, raising the target price to 43.05 yuan, considering the impact of product life cycles and client new product release schedules, while also increasing R&D investment [1][2] - The expected EPS for Goer Group is adjusted to 0.96/1.23 yuan for 2025-2026, with a forecast of 1.50 yuan for 2027, reflecting the company's high growth rate and leading position in AI glasses and AR products [1][2] Group 2 - Goer Group has established a vertical integration layout in the XR field, benefiting from future industry demand surges, and has close cooperation with global leading XR clients [3] - The company has made strategic investments and acquisitions to strengthen its customer resources and technical capabilities, including acquiring a stake in Silan Microelectronics and investing in Plessey to enhance its AR display capabilities [3] - The merger with Shanghai Aolai is expected to accelerate the expansion of mature optical waveguide production capacity and consolidate Goer Group's competitive advantage in wafer-level micro-nano optical devices [2][3]

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 08 月 26 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【计算机研究】金山办公：公司 2025 年上半年经营业绩稳健，加大研发投入并推出 WPS AI 3.0 版本，实现 AI 月活大幅增长，持续夯实 AI 办公时代的竞争优势。 2、【生物医药研究】泽璟制药-U：公司产品放量加速，研发成果密集兑现，核心管线布局收获期， 早研管线稳步挺进，有望进一步提升竞争力，维持"增持"评级。 3、【建筑工程研究】建筑工程业：国办转发关于规范 PPP 存量项目建设和运营的指导意见，对于 存量项目分类分级推进，对于已运营项目要依法履约按效付费，强化政策和资金支持。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 杨林(分析师) 021-23183969 yanglin2@gtht.com S0880525040027 杨蒙(分析师) 021-23185700 yangmeng@gtht ...

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 鲍威尔在杰克逊·霍尔年会的发言奠定转鸽基础，预计新一轮预防式降息将要来临，但在通胀掣 肘下，年内或降息两次。与 2024 年类似，当时鲍威尔表态"现在是调整政策的时候了"，从 9 月份开 始接连降息，全年降息 100BP。本次鲍威尔表态"基线展望和风险平衡的转移可能需要调整我们的政 请务必阅读文章最后一页相关法律声明 1 of 64 汪浩(分析师) 0755-23976659 wanghao8@gtht.com S0880521120002 梁中华(分析师) 021-23219820 liangzhonghua@gtht.com S0880525040019 宏观专题：《新一轮预防式降息将至》2025-08-23 美东时间 2025 年 8 月 22 日，鲍威尔在一年一度的杰克逊·霍尔全球央行年会发表 ...

Group 1: Military Industry - The military sector is experiencing an upward trend, driven by the intensifying geopolitical competition among major powers, with a long-term positive outlook for military investments [4][5][6] - The recent commemorative events for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War have highlighted the importance of national defense, leading to increased military spending [5] - Key companies to focus on include major manufacturers and component suppliers such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC South Lake, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [4] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials - The implementation of new national standards for refrigerators is expected to accelerate the demand for VIP boards, with the company Reascent Technology poised for significant growth following its acquisition of Maikelong [8][9] - The company has integrated its supply chain from fiberglass cotton to VIP core materials and VIP boards, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [9] Group 3: Dairy Industry - The price of raw milk continues to decline, and a supply-demand balance is expected in the second half of 2025, benefiting from reduced production and improved demand [11][19] - Beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to supply reduction and decreased import pressures, with a projected increase in profitability for livestock companies [12][20] - The cyclical resonance between meat and milk production is expected to enhance the profitability of leading livestock companies [11][21]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - National general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with a notable increase of 2.6% in July, marking the highest monthly growth of the year [3] - National general public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the same period, with significant contributions from health and social security sectors [3] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing impacts from the real estate market adjustments [4] Group 2: Anfu Technology - Anfu Technology is expected to acquire a 43% stake in Nanfu Battery by 2026, significantly enhancing its earnings [8] - The restructuring strategy aims to deepen control over Nanfu Battery, with projected net profit of no less than 914 million yuan for 2025 [9] - The alkaline battery market is projected to grow, driven by trends such as smart home adoption and outdoor activities, with global retail sales expected to exceed $12 billion by 2025 [9][10] Group 3: Lenovo Group - Lenovo Group reported a strong start to FY2026, with total revenue reaching $18.8 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase [11] - The company’s three main business segments showed robust growth, with the IDG segment achieving $13.5 billion in revenue, up 18% [12] - Lenovo's AI strategy is advancing, with significant developments in both personal and enterprise AI solutions [12][13] Group 4: Ruoyuchen - Ruoyuchen's revenue for H1 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by a 242% year-on-year increase in self-owned brand sales [14] - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates, with EPS projections of 0.81, 1.20, and 1.62 yuan for 2025-2027 [15] - The self-owned brand "Zhanjia" has shown strong performance, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [16] Group 5: Nuo Pin - Nuo Pin is positioned as a leader in high-end blueberry production, with a target EPS of 0.86, 1.26, and 1.56 yuan for 2025-2027 [18] - The company benefits from high barriers to entry in blueberry cultivation, leveraging unique climatic conditions in Yunnan [19] - Nuo Pin's sales channels are expanding, with a significant increase in fresh food revenue from 1 billion to 2.14 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [20]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The current monetary policy approach has shifted, with a focus on structural and targeted measures rather than traditional broad monetary easing [1][2][5] - The central bank's emphasis is on reducing financing costs for the real economy while maintaining its own financial health, indicating a balanced approach [4][5] - Recent financial data suggests that short-term credit fluctuations may reflect a "de-involution" in the financial sector, with the central bank's support for the real economy remaining robust [3][5] Group 2: Company Performance and Industry Trends - IFBH is identified as a leader in the ready-to-drink coconut water market in mainland China, with a projected EPS growth from 0.16 to 0.26 USD per share from 2025 to 2027 [6][7] - The company benefits from a strong supply chain rooted in Thailand, a light asset model, and a growing consumer preference for coconut water, positioning it for continued high growth [7] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a shift, with traditional consumption facing challenges while new consumption trends are emerging, leading to potential value reassessment for established brands [10][12] Group 3: Specific Company Reports - Tai Chen Guang reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand in the AI data center sector [13][15] - The company is focusing on high-density products and has begun scaling up high-end applications, which is expected to enhance its market position [15][16] - The performance of traditional liquor brands is under pressure due to weak demand and regulatory impacts, but there is potential for recovery as market conditions improve [10][12]

Group 1: Baia Co., Ltd. (百亚股份) - The company is expected to gradually recover its operations despite short-term impacts on e-commerce channels due to public sentiment, with a focus on expanding its offline market potential [2][3] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.764 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.12%, and a net profit of 188 million yuan, up 4.64% year-on-year [4] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2027, projecting EPS of 0.86, 1.15, and 1.47 yuan respectively, and maintains a target price of 34.43 yuan based on a 40x PE ratio for 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Dongfang Caifu (东方财富) - The company achieved a significant revenue increase of 25% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven primarily by growth in its securities brokerage and credit businesses [6][8] - The adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025 reached 5.567 billion yuan, reflecting a 37% increase year-on-year, with a target price set at 31.20 yuan based on a 40x P/E ratio [6][7] - The active trading environment in the market is expected to continue to support the company's revenue growth, with a notable increase in daily trading volume and margin financing [9] Group 3: Weilon Delicious (卫龙美味) - The company reported a revenue increase of 18.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a focus on the growth of its konjac product line and optimization of its fee structure [10][11] - The net profit for the first half of 2025 was 736 million yuan, also reflecting an 18.5% increase year-on-year, supported by improved efficiency in sales and management expenses [11][12] - The company aims to achieve excess returns through channel expansion, product diversification, and efficiency improvements in production [12]

Macro - July economic growth slowed, driven by policy and seasonal factors, with a need for continued policy support to stabilize growth and address structural issues [1][4][31] - The recovery of the economy requires ongoing consumption stimulus policies and optimization of funding allocation in infrastructure projects [4][31] Strategy - The reform of the capital market in China is crucial for stock market valuation, with a focus on improving investor returns, which is expected to boost confidence in Chinese assets [2][5][6] - The shift in valuation logic in the Chinese stock market is moving from economic cycle fluctuations to a decline in discount rates, indicating a bullish outlook for A/H shares [5][9] Overseas Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market has shown weak performance recently, influenced by a depreciating Hong Kong dollar and rising global trade uncertainties [10][11] - The decline in hot sectors and a slowdown in incremental capital inflows have constrained the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [11][34] Food and Beverage - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with the company expecting a revenue decline of 38.3%-41.9% in H1 2025, and a net profit decrease of 39%-40% [2][16] - The introduction of new products like "Da Zhen" and "Niu Shi Beer" is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth and improve margins [2][17] Home Appliances - The company is increasing its market share in domestic refrigeration cabinets, with the launch of its first overseas factory in Indonesia, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [2][19][20] - The demand for commercial refrigeration products is projected to grow due to the expansion of convenience stores and the rise of smart cabinets [21]