Key Recommendations - Tactical asset allocation views have been adjusted, downgrading US Treasury bonds to benchmark and US dollar to underweight, while maintaining an overweight position in gold [1][2] - Chip manufacturer Chipbond is expected to benefit significantly from the adoption of advanced CoWoS-L packaging solutions for high-performance GPUs, requiring more LDI direct-write lithography technology [1][6] - The demand for domestic AI computing chips is anticipated to accelerate due to improvements in hardware performance and software architecture iterations [1][8] - Jinbo Biotech's major product, Wei Yimei, is still in a rapid growth phase, and the commercialization of new gel products is expected to contribute to performance growth [1][11] - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from the successful implementation of the old-for-new policy in 2024, with continued policy support in 2025 [1][14] - The coal industry is projected to see a price rebound in April, coinciding with the summer peak demand in June, leading to a preference for more certain dividend assets amid increased market volatility [1][17] Company-Specific Insights - Chipbond maintains an "overweight" rating with a target price of 116.55 CNY, despite lowering EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 due to overseas progress falling short of expectations [5][6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for LDI direct-write lithography equipment as domestic CSP manufacturers ramp up capital expenditures [6] - Jinbo Biotech's new gel product, which is the first injectable recombinant type III humanized collagen gel approved, is expected to enhance its market presence and growth potential [11][12] Industry Trends - The electronic components industry is witnessing a surge in demand for domestic AI computing infrastructure, driven by the release of new products like the CloudMatrix 384 super node [8][9] - The home appliance sector is experiencing a positive trend in retail sales, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7% in February 2025, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [15] - The coal industry is approaching a fundamental turning point, with expectations of price stabilization and potential increases due to supply and demand dynamics [17][19]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The tariff environment has limited short-term disruptions to the pharmaceutical industry, with a focus on the global competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs [2][17][19] - Domestic innovative drug companies have captured significant market shares, such as BTK inhibitors holding 75% and PD-1/PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies over 70% in the domestic market [2][17] - Several Chinese innovative drugs are entering a harvest phase, with Zebutine expected to achieve sales of $2.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 105% [2][17] - A recommended list of leading biotech and pharmaceutical companies includes BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and Hengrui Medicine among others [2][17] Group 2: Chemical Industry - Juhua Co., Ltd. - Juhua Co., Ltd. is expected to see significant growth in Q1 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 760 to 840 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 145% to 171% [5][6][36] - The company benefits from a strong position in the refrigerant market, with a production quota of 34% for third-generation refrigerants [6][36] - The refrigerant segment has shown a substantial increase in both volume and price, with revenues reaching 2.618 billion yuan, up 64.63% year-on-year [6][36] Group 3: Aluminum Industry - China Aluminum Corporation - China Aluminum Corporation is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.4 to 3.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53% to 63% [8][10] - The company is enhancing its resource strategy and has a significant aluminum ore reserve of approximately 2.7 billion tons [8][10] - Expansion projects are underway, with a new 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum capacity expected to come online in December 2024 [10]

Group 1: Fixed Income and Asset Allocation - The fixed income team believes the market is expected to gradually stabilize, with fixed income + funds providing both long-term allocation and left-side speculation capabilities [2][4] - The active allocation team integrates active allocation views into quantitative model research, achieving an annualized return of 24.0% for global asset allocation strategies [5][6] - The report recommends focusing on consumer-oriented funds for investors seeking higher equity exposure in fixed income + products [4][5] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction team emphasizes the importance of domestic demand policies supporting housing construction and infrastructure, recommending stocks like Jianghe Group and China Construction [10][11] - The construction index has decreased by 3% since the beginning of 2025, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.73, indicating low valuations [10] - The report highlights that the overseas business of Chinese construction companies is largely concentrated in Belt and Road Initiative countries, which is expected to continue growing [11] Group 3: Basic Chemicals - The basic chemicals team maintains a positive outlook on the pesticide sector, citing its essential demand characteristics and limited impact from tariffs [13][14] - The report recommends leading pesticide companies like Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Shares, which have established production facilities in the U.S. [14][15] - The global pesticide market is expected to benefit from changes in trade patterns, with China's pesticide exports showing significant growth [14][15] Group 4: Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a rebound, with excavator sales in March 2025 increasing by 18.5% year-on-year [22][23] - The report suggests that domestic sales of excavators are expected to continue rising due to supportive fiscal policies and industry cycles [22][23] - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG Machinery, which are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery [22] Group 5: Insurance Sector - The recent regulatory changes are expected to enhance the investment capacity of insurance companies in equity markets, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the sector [27][28] - The adjustments in equity asset allocation limits for insurance companies are aimed at increasing their support for capital markets and the real economy [28][29] - The report suggests increasing allocations to major insurance firms like China Life and Ping An Insurance [27][29] Group 6: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector shows positive growth, with significant increases in passenger kilometers (RPK) for major airlines compared to previous years [31][32] - The report highlights that airlines like Eastern Airlines are leading in multiple performance metrics, including RPK and load factors [31][33] - Recommended stocks include Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [31]

Group 1: Building Materials - The external environment is expected to positively influence the fundamentals of the building materials sector, with a focus on "tortoise and hare" dynamics, where supply optimization and demand stabilization will release profits [1][4] - The cement industry is projected to see a slowdown in demand decline, with significant contributions from key projects, and price stabilization is anticipated [5] - The consumption building materials sector is expected to experience profit margin recovery due to declining raw material prices, with a focus on net profit margin recovery rather than price growth [6] Group 2: Telecommunications - The company Tai Chen Guang is expected to exceed profit expectations, with significant overseas orders and active capacity expansion in high-density optical interconnection [8][9] - The updated earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is 1.84, 2.52, and 3.50 yuan, with a target price adjustment to 93.84 yuan while maintaining a buy rating [8][9] Group 3: Petrochemicals - The recent increase in U.S. tariffs and unexpected OPEC production increases have led to significant declines in oil prices, with a forecast for Brent crude oil prices to stabilize around 60-65 USD per barrel in 2025 [2][12] - The petrochemical sector is viewed as having good long-term investment value once macroeconomic risks are priced in and oil prices stabilize [12][13] Group 4: Textiles and Apparel - The textile manufacturing industry faces challenges due to U.S. tariff increases, with recommendations to focus on brands with pricing power and manufacturers with competitive barriers [4][14] - Investment suggestions include brands with strong market positions and manufacturers capable of managing tariff impacts effectively [15][16] Group 5: Home Appliances - The recent tariff imposition has increased pressure on re-export trade, prompting a shift back to domestic demand, with recommendations for companies in the domestic supply chain [3][18] - Key investment lines include companies with low exposure to U.S. risks and those utilizing re-export strategies through Mexico [18][19] Group 6: Transportation - The impact of U.S. tariffs on the transportation sector is complex, with recommendations focusing on airlines and oil transportation benefiting from falling oil prices [6][22] - The sector is advised to monitor tariff policy changes and industry responses closely [22][23]

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 04 月 07 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、宏观：对主要对美顺差国加征幅度超预期； [周津宇 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880516080007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 行业双周报：《关税背景下关注农业自主可控度高》2025-04- 05 王艳君（分析师）021-38676666、林逸丹（分析师）021-38676666 种业：中国关税反制，自美农产品进口有望进一步降低，自主可控势在必行。 国务院关税税则委员会公告自 2025 年 4 月 10 日 12 时 01 分起，我国对原产于美国的所有进 口商品加征 34%关税。美国是中国的第二大粮食进口来源地，2024 年中国自美国进口农产品的规模为 249 亿美元。据海关统计，2024 年中国自美国进口粮食总量 3179.33 万吨。其中大豆 2213.4 万吨、高 粱 568.3 万吨、玉米 207.4 万吨和小麦 190.23 万吨。我们认为，中国自美国进口农产品有望进一步降 低，推动国内粮价景气度提升， ...

低利率环境下，资负匹配定保险股价值 [Table_Industry] 保险 ——上市险企 2024 年年报综述 | | | | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 李嘉木(分析师) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880524030003 | | 本报告导读： 2024 年上市险企价值率推动 NBV 景气增长，投资收益提振推动利润大幅提升；长 端利率下行对 CSM 及净资产造成冲击，预计资负联动更为重要，维持"增持"。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.06 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：负债端看，预定利率调整、分红险占比提升以及全渠道 报行合一的实施将推动行业负债成本的下移，预计 2025 年上市公司 NBV 回归平稳增长；投资端看，由于近年刚性负债成本的抬升，预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [1][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to enhance its competitiveness through strengthening product R&D capabilities, supply chain capabilities, operational management, brand influence, and digital capabilities [2]. - The company's performance in 2024 was below expectations, with a decline in same-store revenue and a slowdown in store opening growth. Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered to 7.18 billion and 7.88 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 of 8.62 billion RMB [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is reported at 49.18 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.72 billion RMB, down 59% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit is 6.45 billion RMB, a decline of 49% [5][6]. - The company had a total of 8,395 stores by the end of 2024, an increase of 8% year-on-year, with 8,382 being franchise stores and 13 being directly operated stores. The net increase in franchise stores was 587 [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.2%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased support for franchisees [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 19.14 CNY [2][11]. Core Views - The company is advancing its "Three Expansion" strategy, focusing on franchise, live streaming, and AI business layouts, indicating a positive long-term development outlook [3]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 8,753 million CNY, which is expected to grow to 9,337 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a 6.7% increase. By 2027, revenue is projected to reach 12,654 million CNY [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 105 million CNY in 2023, with a significant increase to 181 million CNY in 2024, marking a 72.4% growth. The forecast for 2027 is a net profit of 621 million CNY [5][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.08 CNY in 2023 to 0.14 CNY in 2024, and further to 0.49 CNY by 2027 [5][11]. Operational Highlights - The company added 96 new stores in 2024 while closing 75, resulting in a total of 1,046 stores by year-end [11]. - The company has initiated a franchise model, with 9 new franchise stores generating 1.09 million CNY in revenue [11]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 29.7%, with a net profit margin of 2.68% after adjusting for convertible bonds and stock incentives [11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories, particularly in non-standard and mid-to-large children's products, with a revenue contribution of 12.3% and a growth rate of 22.3% [11]. - The company is also enhancing its operational efficiency through a self-built traceable delivery system, covering over 200 cities [11]. - Collaborations with partners for live streaming and smart incubators are part of the company's strategy to enhance its market presence [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][23]. Core Viewpoints - The company's business development is stable and improving, with an increase in both quantity and quality of operations [3]. - The property management services are experiencing steady growth, and profitability is on the rise [7][8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its non-residential business to enhance operational independence [10][13]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's total revenue is projected to increase by 7.5% to HKD 14.024 billion, with a gross profit increase of 12.4% to HKD 2.326 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 16.6%, up 0.7 percentage points from 2023 [6][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 12.5% to HKD 1.511 billion, with basic and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 0.46, reflecting a 12.6% year-on-year growth [6][8]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 32.7%, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points compared to 2023 [8]. Business Analysis Summary - As of the end of 2024, the company manages 448 retail projects and 2,232 property projects, covering a service area of approximately 431 million square meters [10][13]. - Revenue from property management services is expected to reach HKD 10.666 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, accounting for 76.1% of total revenue [13]. - The gross margin for property management services is anticipated to improve to 16.0%, driven by effective cost control measures [14]. Dividend Analysis - The company plans to declare a total dividend of HKD 0.18 per share for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 35.7% and a dividend yield of 3.52% [21][25]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to have an EPS of HKD 0.51 in 2025, with a valuation range of HKD 6.16 to HKD 7.70 per share based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12-15 times [23][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in core business in the second half of 2024, alongside the rise of AI-related products and services [6][9] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 16.95 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.62%, with full-stack AI products contributing 957 million yuan, accounting for 5.65% of total revenue [9] - The report emphasizes a multi-dimensional improvement in gross margin and effective cost control measures [9] Financial Data and Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 17.23 billion yuan - 2024: 16.95 billion yuan (YoY -1.6%) - 2025E: 18.65 billion yuan (YoY +10.0%) - 2026E: 20.88 billion yuan (YoY +12.0%) - 2027E: 24.02 billion yuan (YoY +15.0%) [8][10] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 713.39 million yuan - 2024: 512.93 million yuan (YoY -28.1%) - 2025E: 707.65 million yuan (YoY +38.0%) - 2026E: 883.31 million yuan (YoY +24.8%) - 2027E: 1.12 billion yuan (YoY +26.5%) [8][10] Business Segmentation - The revenue breakdown by business segment for 2024 is: - Technical Professional Services (TPG): 14.77 billion yuan (YoY -1.7%) - Internet Information Technology Services (IIG): 2.18 billion yuan (YoY +4%) [9][10] - The top five customers account for 57.4% of service revenue, while the top ten customers account for 65.1% [9] Profitability and Cost Management - The company aims to improve gross margin through: - Increasing the proportion of high-margin services - Transitioning to productized software and hardware offerings - Integrating AI tools into delivery processes [9] - The gross profit for 2024 is projected at 3.74 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.1% [9] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a dynamic PE of 23-27 times for 2025, with a 6-month fair value range of 6.43-7.55 HKD [9] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the AI sector, particularly through its partnerships and product offerings [9]