Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Group [4][11]. Core Views - JD Group's 4Q24 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, and Non-GAAP net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 34.5% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company has initiated a new share repurchase plan allowing for up to 5 billion USD in buybacks over the next 36 months [4]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the "trade-in" program for consumer goods, which is expected to continue into 2025 [4]. Financial Analysis - In 4Q24, JD Group's revenue reached 347 billion yuan, marking a 13.4% year-on-year increase, while Non-GAAP net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 34.5% increase year-on-year [7][10]. - The active user base and shopping frequency continued to grow at double-digit rates, with significant contributions from third-party merchants [7][10]. - Direct sales revenue for 4Q24 was 281 billion yuan, with home appliances and 3C products increasing by 15.8% and fast-moving consumer goods by 11.1% year-on-year [7][10]. - Service revenue for 4Q24 was 66 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, with platform and advertising revenue growing by 12.7% [7][10]. Major Financial Data and Forecast - The projected revenue for JD Group is expected to grow from 1,088 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,467 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [8][14]. - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to increase from 24.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 54.5 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 132.82% in 2024 [8][14]. - The report estimates a reasonable market capitalization range for 2025 between 627.5 billion and 704.1 billion HKD, translating to a target share price of 197 to 221 HKD [11][12].

4[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/汽车与零配件/汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_QuoteInfo] 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 48.0 64.3 68.4 零跑汽车（9863）公司公告点评 2025 年 03 月 14 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 股票数据 | 0[3Ta月b1le3_日S收to盘ck价I（nf港o]币） | 50.10 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（港币） | 18.64-50.40 | | 总股本/流通股本（百万股） | 1337/1116 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万港币） | 55932/66982 | 相关研究 [《Ta提b前le一_R年e净p利or转tI正nf，o]Q4 毛利率预计 13%》 2025.01.14 《24Q3 销量创历史新高，毛利率环比大幅 改善》2024.11.15 《经营稳健向好，智驾投入加大，全方位与 Stellantis 开展合作》2024.08.16 市场表现 资料来源：海通证券研究所 分析师:刘一鸣 Tel:(021)23154145 Email:lym15114@hai ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/房地产/房地产 证券研究报告 美凯龙（601828）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 14 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 13 日收盘价（元）] | 3.02 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 2.02-4.45 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 4355/3613 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 13151/13151 | | 相关研究 | | 市场表现 Email:gql13820@haitong.com 证书:S0850521050003 分析师:高翩然 Email:gpr14257@haitong.com 证书:S0850522030002 全国家居商场运营龙头，盈利能力有望回升 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： [Table_QuoteInfo] -39.36% -25.36% -11.36% 2.64% 16.64% 30.64% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 美凯龙 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 每日报告精选 证券研究报告 最新研究与资讯 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | | | | 名称 | 日涨跌% | 周涨跌% | 年涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海通风格指数 | | | | | 大盘 100 | 0.48 | -0.32 | -4.65 | | 小盘 200 | -1.20 | 0.60 | 10.18 | | 表现最好前五行业 | | | | | 煤炭指数 | 4.03 | 5.53 | -10.91 | | 石油然气 | 1.76 | 2.02 | -10.72 | | 钢铁指数 | 1.18 | 2.81 | 10.46 | | 公用事业 | 0.70 | 1.03 | -5.47 | | 有色金属 | 0.44 | 3.71 | 12.10 | | 表现最差前五行业 | | | | | 通讯服务 | -2.47 | -6.09 | 20.61 | | 信息设备 | -2.04 | -2.36 | 6.38 | | 传媒指数 | -1.89 | -0.47 | 9.67 | | 信息服务 | -1.78 | -3 ...

[Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 13 日收盘价（元）] | 29.86 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 20.85-57.30 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 211/211 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 6304/6304 | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInfo] -35.16% -20.16% -5.16% 9.84% 24.84% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 安孚科技 海通综指 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 9.2 21.3 7.1 相对涨幅（%） 9.0 16.1 9.7 资料来源：海通证券研究所 分析师:杨林 [Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务 证券研究报告 安孚科技（603031）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | Tel:(021)23183969 | | --- | | Email:yl11036@haitong.com | | 证书:S08 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务/软件 证券研究报告 新大陆（000997）公司跟踪报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 12日收盘价（元）] | 26.94 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 11.85-26.94 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 1032/1026 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 27804/27650 | | 相关研究 | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《首次回购股份完成，AI 应用落地加速》 2025.02.13 《Q3 利润两位数增长，高分红+回购强势彰显 信心》2024.10.28 《盈利能力改善，海外布局加速》2024.08.31 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -36.84% -21.84% -6.84% 8.16% 23.16% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 新大陆 海通综指 | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The company, MLILY, is a leading manufacturer of memory foam mattresses, focusing on enhancing deep sleep for consumers. It has established a strong presence in over 110 countries, including the US, UK, and Japan, and is recognized for its innovative "zero pressure" mattress concept [8][9] - The company is expected to face short-term challenges but is positioned for recovery and growth in the coming years, with projected revenue growth and profitability improvements starting in 2025 [6][9] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2022 was 8017 million yuan, with a slight decline to 7976 million yuan in 2023. Forecasts indicate a recovery to 8670 million yuan in 2024, 9567 million yuan in 2025, and 10318 million yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 10.3%, and 7.8% respectively [7][11] - Net profit is projected to turn from a loss of 152 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 234 million yuan in 2025 and 282 million yuan in 2026, indicating a significant turnaround [7][11] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 38.9% in 2025 and 2026, with improvements in operational efficiency [7][11] Business Segments - The company operates through three main business segments: 1. **Store Sales**: Expected to generate 2603 million yuan in 2024, with a slight recovery in subsequent years [10][11] 2. **Online Sales**: Anticipated to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 1787 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 2756 million yuan by 2026 [10][11] 3. **Bulk Sales**: Expected to see steady growth, with revenues forecasted at 4080 million yuan in 2024 and continuing to rise [10][11] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned to benefit from the recent US anti-dumping tax rulings, which may enhance its competitive advantage in the US market due to its local manufacturing capabilities [9] - The company is actively upgrading its store formats and expanding its online presence to capture a larger market share and improve customer engagement [10][11] Valuation - The company is valued based on a projected PE ratio of 15 to 18 for 2025, suggesting a reasonable price range of 6.98 to 7.39 yuan per share [8][9]

- Model Name: Value Smart Beta Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: Based on high beta elasticity and long-term stable excess returns, selecting historically low-correlated value style; Model Construction Process: Constructed Value 50 Portfolio and Value Balanced 50 Portfolio based on the above idea[9]; Model Evaluation: Demonstrates stable performance with excess returns over the benchmark[9] - Model Name: Growth Smart Beta Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: Based on high beta elasticity and long-term stable excess returns, selecting historically low-correlated growth style; Model Construction Process: Constructed Growth 50 Portfolio and Growth Balanced 50 Portfolio based on the above idea[9]; Model Evaluation: Shows potential for high returns with some volatility[9] - Model Name: Small Cap Smart Beta Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: Based on high beta elasticity and long-term stable excess returns, selecting historically low-correlated small cap style; Model Construction Process: Constructed Small Cap 50 Portfolio and Small Cap Balanced 50 Portfolio based on the above idea[9]; Model Evaluation: High returns with higher risk compared to other styles[9] Model Backtest Results - Value Smart Beta Portfolio, Weekly Return: 1.57%, Monthly Return: 1.57%, Yearly Return: -1.44%, Excess Return: 0.26%, Maximum Relative Drawdown: 2.26%[10] - Value Balanced 50 Portfolio, Weekly Return: 2.67%, Monthly Return: 2.67%, Yearly Return: -0.76%, Excess Return: 1.36%, Maximum Relative Drawdown: 3.99%[10] - Growth Smart Beta Portfolio, Weekly Return: 0.64%, Monthly Return: 0.64%, Yearly Return: 3.96%, Excess Return: -1.09%, Maximum Relative Drawdown: 2.49%[10] - Growth Balanced 50 Portfolio, Weekly Return: 2.40%, Monthly Return: 2.40%, Yearly Return: 10.72%, Excess Return: 0.66%, Maximum Relative Drawdown: 1.77%[10] - Small Cap Smart Beta Portfolio, Weekly Return: 1.68%, Monthly Return: 1.68%, Yearly Return: 8.39%, Excess Return: -2.32%, Maximum Relative Drawdown: 6.23%[10] - Small Cap Balanced 50 Portfolio, Weekly Return: 4.67%, Monthly Return: 4.67%, Yearly Return: 13.21%, Excess Return: 0.67%, Maximum Relative Drawdown: 3.67%[10]