证券研究报告 （优于大市，维持） 重卡：以旧换新提供长效机制 刘一鸣（汽车行业首席分析师） SAC号码：S0850522120003 张觉尹（汽车行业分析师） SAC号码：S0850523020001 潘若婵（联系人） 2024年10月16日 重卡行业投资逻辑 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------| | | | | 我们认为： | | | 国内：本次以旧换新政策，对于货车是长效机制，有望推动 2-3 期。本次仅报废也可获得补贴的政策，有望推动产业沿着"报废 提升 - 销量提升"的路径进行 | 年的销量修复周 - 存量收缩 - 运价 | | 海外：中国重卡在新兴市场目前 30% 市占率。考虑到成本的明显优势和渠道的广 度大幅改善，海外份额仍有明确提升空间。 | | | 预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The demand for innovative cooling solutions is increasing due to the rise in AI computing power and the trend towards thinner smartphones, necessitating advancements in thermal management technologies [3][5]. - The transition from traditional heat pipes to new combinations of vapor chambers (VC) and graphene is expected to enhance the growth rate of the smartphone cooling industry [3][12]. - Key companies to watch include Lianyi Intelligent Manufacturing, AAC Technologies, and Tianmai Thermal Management, each offering unique advantages in their cooling solutions [3][28]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Increasing Demand for Innovative Cooling Solutions - AI advancements are driving the need for improved thermal management in smartphones, as increased power consumption leads to higher heat generation [5][9]. - The limited internal space for cooling solutions in smartphones necessitates innovative designs to maintain performance and reliability [5][9]. Section 2: Analysis of Mainstream Cooling Solutions - The evolution of smartphone cooling solutions has progressed from graphite sheets to vapor chambers and 3D VC technologies, indicating a shift towards more efficient thermal management systems [12][19]. - Current mainstream solutions struggle to meet the cooling requirements of AI-enabled smartphones, leading to a preference for hybrid solutions that combine multiple materials [3][12]. Section 3: Industry Competitive Landscape - Lianyi Intelligent Manufacturing has developed ultra-thin stainless steel vapor chambers with a flatness of less than 0.15mm, significantly enhancing mechanical strength and reducing production costs by 20%-30% [28]. - AAC Technologies offers customizable heat dissipation products, including various thicknesses of vapor chambers and heat pipes, utilizing advanced capillary structures for thinner designs [28]. - Tianmai Thermal Management specializes in high-end thermal interface materials and has developed ultra-thin heat pipes and vapor chambers, achieving thicknesses as low as 0.3mm and 0.22mm, respectively [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the sustained profitability improvement of Moncler and Canada Goose is driven by three key factors: precise targeting of high-end consumer groups, increased proportion of direct sales channels, and expansion of product categories [3] - The company's market performance over the past six years is attributed to its reforms and expansions in brand upgrading, direct sales channel proportion, and new product categories [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.57 billion and 4.13 billion yuan in FY25 and FY26, respectively, with a PE ratio of 17-18X for FY25, translating to a reasonable value range of 5.96-6.31 HKD per share [3] Historical Performance of Moncler and Canada Goose - Both Moncler and Canada Goose have achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in revenue and net profit since their IPOs [4][5] - Moncler's revenue grew from 364 million euros in 2011 to 2.603 billion euros in 2022, with a CAGR of 20% [4] - Canada Goose's revenue grew from 218 million CAD in FY2015 to 1.217 billion CAD in FY2023, with a CAGR of 24% [5] - The Asia-Pacific region is the largest revenue contributor for both companies, accounting for 43% of Moncler's revenue and 29% of Canada Goose's revenue in 2022 [5] Profitability Trends - Moncler's gross margin increased from 67% in 2011 to 76.4% in 2022, while its net margin rose from 15.4% to 23.3% over the same period [8][9] - Canada Goose's gross margin increased from 40.6% in FY2014 to 67% in FY2023, with its net margin peaking at 17.3% in FY2018 before declining post-pandemic [8][9] - Moncler's recovery post-pandemic has been stronger compared to Canada Goose, which saw a significant decline in net margin due to increased e-commerce investments and rising labor costs [8] Leadership and Development Strategies - Moncler's CEO, Remo Ruffini, has a strong background in the fashion industry, which has helped the company transition into a luxury brand [12] - Canada Goose's CEO, Dani Reiss, has focused on maintaining the brand's "Made in Canada" identity and functional product positioning [12] - Moncler has diversified its product lines and expanded into non-outerwear categories, while Canada Goose has emphasized its core product functionality and brand heritage [12][27] Channel and Supply Chain Strategies - Moncler's direct sales channel accounts for 80% of its revenue, significantly higher than Canada Goose's 67% [34] - Moncler has a more balanced growth strategy between store expansion and store efficiency, while Canada Goose has relied more on store expansion for growth [31] - Canada Goose maintains a higher proportion of in-house production, with 8 owned factories, compared to Moncler's reliance on third-party suppliers [37] Product Diversification and Seasonal Risk Mitigation - Moncler has successfully diversified its product portfolio, with non-outerwear products accounting for 25% of its revenue in 2020, up from 12% in 2014 [38] - Canada Goose plans to increase its non-down product revenue to 25% by FY2028, aiming to reduce seasonal dependency [38] Market Performance and Valuation - The company's market performance over the past six years has been strong, with a cumulative increase of 571.7% in stock price, outperforming many peers [41][42] - The report forecasts the company's net profit to reach 3.57 billion and 4.13 billion yuan in FY25 and FY26, respectively, with a PE ratio of 17-18X for FY25 [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the forklift industry, indicating that the recovery of the manufacturing sector will positively impact domestic forklift sales [5]. Core Insights - Forklift sales in September increased by 6.06% year-on-year, with a total of 106,000 units sold, while cumulative sales from January to September reached 970,700 units, reflecting a 10.80% year-on-year growth [2][5]. - The report highlights that the overseas market for forklifts is growing faster than the domestic market, with exports in September rising by 28.5% to 43,200 units, while domestic sales decreased by 5.32% to 62,800 units [2][5]. - The electric forklift sales accounted for 59.49% of total sales in August, showing a 0.70 percentage point increase from the previous month [2]. - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity, with production and new orders indices at 51.2% and 49.9% respectively [3][5]. Summary by Sections Forklift Industry Overview - The report notes that the domestic forklift market is experiencing a decline in sales, while the international market is expanding, with significant growth in exports [2][5]. - The electric forklift segment is gaining traction, with a notable increase in its market share [2]. Key Companies - Anhui Heli's subsidiary, Yufeng Intelligent, has been recognized as a national-level "specialized and innovative" enterprise, enhancing its competitive edge in the logistics automation sector [4]. - Hangcha Group is expanding its international presence by establishing subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, aiming to enhance global marketing and operational efficiency [5]. - Noli Intelligent Equipment has opened a subsidiary in South Korea, furthering its global strategy and introducing popular products in the local market [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group, as the recovery in the manufacturing sector is expected to boost domestic forklift sales, and local manufacturers are leveraging cost and technological advantages to expand internationally [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and maintains "Market Performance" [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a downward trend in shipping costs, with the container freight index (CCFI) showing a comprehensive index of 1476.98, down 9.85% month-on-month [1]. - The textile and apparel export from January to September 2024 saw a year-on-year decline of 3.8%, with textile exports at 741.71 billion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year, while apparel exports remained flat at 839.94 billion yuan [2]. - The motorcycle export in August 2024 decreased by 3.15% month-on-month but increased by 15.88% year-on-year, with an export value of 1.329 billion USD [2]. - The golf cart export volume increased by 23.42% month-on-month and 118.88% year-on-year, with an export value of 12.9 million USD [2]. - A strategic agreement was signed among Honghua Digital, Interstate Digital, and Dongshen Industry to promote digital and intelligent development in the home textile industry [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping and Freight - The report notes a month-on-month decline in shipping costs across various routes, with specific indices reflecting significant changes [1]. Textile Industry - The textile and apparel sector experienced a mixed performance, with overall exports showing a decline in September 2024 compared to previous months [2]. Motorcycle Industry - The motorcycle export figures indicate a positive year-on-year growth despite a slight month-on-month decline, showcasing resilience in the sector [2]. Golf Cart Industry - The golf cart sector demonstrated robust growth in both export volume and value, indicating strong demand [2]. Strategic Developments - The collaboration among key players in the home textile industry aims to enhance digital printing technology and promote industry upgrades [2].

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/金融/综合金融服务 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024 年 10 月 16 日 [Table_AuthorInfo] [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -24.49% -14.65% -4.82% 5.02% 14.85% 24.68% 2023/10 2024/1 2024/4 2024/7 综合金融服务 海通综指 | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 资料来源：海通证券研究所 | | 相关研究 | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《 SFISF 正式启动，非银机构多维度受 | | 益》 2024.10.14 《交易量创新高，政策密集出台，券商股 | | 业绩与估值有望显著提升》 2024.10.08 《利好政策密集出台，估值显著修复可 | 分析师:孙婷 Tel:(010)50949926 Email:st9998@haitong.com ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务/互联网软件与服务 证券研究报告 绿盟科技（300369）公司研究报告 2024 年 10 月 16 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|------------| | 股票数据 | | | 10 [ Table_StockInfo 月 15 日收盘价（元） ] | 8.45 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 4.57-10.80 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 799/798 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 6754/6745 | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInfo] -51.73% -39.73% -27.73% -15.73% -3.73% 2023/10 2024/1 2024/4 2024/7 绿盟科技 海通综指 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|----- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - In September, TV panel prices continued to decline month-on-month, with prices for 32/43/50/55/65-inch panels at $36/$62/$101/$126/$172 respectively. The "old-for-new" consumption subsidy policy has stimulated demand for large-size panels in the Chinese market, while international brands remain conservative in their procurement strategies due to inventory and operational pressures. It is expected that LCD TV panel prices may stabilize starting in October due to production control and partial demand recovery [2] - For monitor panels, prices saw a slight month-on-month decrease in September, with 23.8-inch and 27-inch monitor panel prices at $44.4 and $56.6 respectively. The consensus among panel manufacturers is to adjust production capacity due to the certainty of declining demand. Despite efforts to control production, overall monitor panel prices are expected to continue a downward trend [5] - Notebook panel prices remained stable in September, with 14.0-inch and 15.6-inch notebook panel prices both at $26.3. The low-end demand in the notebook panel market is showing a downward trend, but with upcoming promotional seasons, brand manufacturers are actively stocking up, which is expected to keep overall mainstream market prices stable in October [6] Summary by Sections TV Panels - September TV panel prices showed a month-on-month decline, with significant demand for large-size panels driven by local subsidy policies. Prices are expected to stabilize in October [2] Monitor Panels - Monitor panel prices experienced a slight decrease in September, with manufacturers agreeing on the need to adjust production due to declining demand. Prices are anticipated to continue to decline [5] Notebook Panels - Notebook panel prices remained unchanged in September, with low-end demand declining. However, upcoming promotional events are expected to maintain price stability in the mainstream market [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company plans to issue Global Depositary Receipts (GDR) overseas and list them on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, representing up to 10% of its total share capital [5] - The funds raised, estimated to be no more than RMB 4.88 billion, will be allocated to various projects including advanced energy storage equipment manufacturing, expansion of overseas inverter equipment and storage products, digital enhancement projects, and the construction of a research and development center in Nanjing [5] - The energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with the company's energy storage system revenue increasing from 13.0% of total revenue in 2021 to 25.2% in the first half of 2024, indicating a strong growth driver for the company's performance [5][6] - The company aims to enhance its production capacity and global presence while investing in digital upgrades and R&D to strengthen its core competitiveness [6] - Profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are projected at RMB 11.36 billion and RMB 13.63 billion respectively, with a PE valuation of 20-22 times for 2024, leading to a reasonable value range of RMB 109.60-120.56 [6][7] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 72.25 billion in 2023 to RMB 129.90 billion by 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 79.5% in 2023 and 19.1% in 2024 [7][9] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 9.44 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.77 billion by 2026, with a significant year-on-year growth of 162.7% in 2023 [7][9] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 30.4% in 2023 and slightly decrease to 28.9% by 2026 [9][10] Market Position - The company has established a significant first-mover advantage in the energy storage sector since 2015, positioning itself as a leader in the industry [5][6] - The company’s existing energy storage system capacity is nearing saturation, and the new projects funded by the GDR issuance will significantly enhance its delivery capabilities [5][6] - The company’s strategy reflects confidence in scaling growth and reinforcing its brand barriers, solidifying its position as an industry leader [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the overall opportunities in the excavator industry outweigh the risks, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - In September 2024, domestic excavator sales increased by 21.5% year-on-year, while export sales saw a slight decline of 2.51%. The total sales for major manufacturers reached 15,831 units, marking a 10.8% increase compared to the previous year [5]. - The report highlights that the domestic market accounted for 48.07% of total sales in September 2024, with a year-to-date domestic sales growth of 8.62% [5]. - The anticipated implementation of various fiscal policies is expected to marginally improve excavator demand, particularly in the infrastructure and real estate sectors [6]. - The report emphasizes that despite international challenges, China's engineering machinery sector is expected to maintain a high level of export value due to its technological and service advantages [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2024, the domestic excavator sales reached 7,610 units, while the cumulative sales from January to September 2024 totaled 147,381 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.96% [5]. - The report indicates that the operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China increased by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year in August 2024, suggesting improved utilization [5]. Policy Impact - The report discusses upcoming fiscal measures aimed at alleviating local government debt risks, which are expected to support the recovery of the construction and real estate sectors, thereby boosting excavator demand [6]. - Specific measures include allowing special bonds for land reserves and optimizing tax policies to stabilize the real estate market [6]. Market Outlook - The report concludes that as policies take effect and market conditions improve, domestic excavator sales growth is likely to continue to rise. The overall sentiment is that the industry presents more opportunities than challenges [6].