太阳能行业近一年市场表现 2024 年 12 月 23 日 行业研究/行业周报 资料来源：最闻 【山证太阳能】预计 2024 年我国光伏新 增装机 230-260GW ， 上 游 价 格 松 动 2024.12.09 肖索 执业登记编码：S0760523070001 邮箱：jiahuilin@sxzq.com 投资要点 ➢ CPIA：12 月最终组件含税成本（含最低必要费用）为 0.692 元/W：12 月 19 日， CPIA 发布 2024 年 12 月光伏主流产品（N 型 M10 及 G12R）各环 节综合成本数据。受丰水期结束，企业开工率调整等因素影响，当前，在各 环节不计折旧，硅料、硅片、电池片环节不含增值税的情况下，最终组件含 税成本（含最低必要费用）为 0.692 元/W。 ➢ 国家能源局：大力监管推进"沙戈荒"新能源基地建设：12 月 16 日， 国家能源局 2025 年监管工作会议在京召开。会议指出，坚持助转型、促消纳， 大力监管推进"沙戈荒"新能源基地建设，开展调节性资源配置调用等专项监 管，健全新能源和新型主体参与市场机制，持续做好绿证核发全覆盖，推动 能源绿色低碳发展。 ➢ 多晶硅价格 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market-A" (首次) [13] Core Viewpoints - The global data center market size in 2023 is approximately $82.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.04% [1] - The Chinese data center market size in 2023 is approximately 240.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.68%, significantly higher than the global growth rate [1] - Diesel generator sets account for the highest proportion of infrastructure costs at 23%, serving as a critical backup power system for data centers [1] - Cummins' power system business revenue in Q3 2024 was $1.687 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, driven by demand from data centers and mining [5] - Cummins' EBITDA in Q3 2024 was $328 million, a year-on-year increase of 40%, with a margin of 19.4% [5] - The "Nuclear Diesel One" has been officially released, marking a breakthrough in high-end diesel generator sets in the nuclear power sector [10] - The "Nuclear Diesel One" has core performance and reliability indicators that meet international advanced levels, with an average failure-free time of more than 2000 hours and an average repair time of less than 10 hours [10] Summary by Relevant Sections Data Center Market - The global data center market is growing steadily, with China's market growing at a significantly faster rate [1] - Diesel generator sets are a critical component of data center infrastructure, accounting for 23% of infrastructure costs [1] Cummins Power System Business - Cummins' power system business has seen significant growth, driven by demand from data centers and mining [5] - The business achieved high profitability with a 19.4% EBITDA margin in Q3 2024 [5] Nuclear Power Sector - The "Nuclear Diesel One" represents a significant advancement in high-end diesel generator sets for the nuclear power sector [10] - It features high reliability, quick start-up, and advanced integration and intelligence [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic companies in the diesel generator set industry, such as Weichai Heavy Machinery, Weichai Power, Ketai Power, and China Power [10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on newly listed stocks, particularly highlighting key companies such as Jiachitech, Pioneering Precision, and Lianyun Technology as potential investment opportunities [2][70]. Core Insights - The report notes an increase in market activity for new stocks in December, with a decrease in the first-day price increase and opening valuation for newly listed stocks on the ChiNext board [20][25]. - The report highlights that the first-day TTM-PE (Trailing Twelve Months Price to Earnings) median for the ChiNext board in December was 21.95 times, up from 19.06 times in November, indicating a rising valuation trend despite the decrease in first-day price increases [31][19]. - The report emphasizes the performance of specific stocks, such as the significant first-day gains of 154.81% and 192.28% for Boke Testing and Lanyu Co., respectively, on the ChiNext board [15][20]. Summary by Sections New Stock Market Activity - The report states that 311 new stocks have been listed since the beginning of 2023, raising a total of 389.83 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board contributing 137.64 billion yuan [9][20]. - It mentions that 17 stocks listed in the past six months recorded positive weekly gains, representing 38.64% of the total, an increase from the previous 28.57% [20][9]. Key New Stocks - The report lists key new stocks that have been recently approved or are pending listing, including Haibo Sichuang (energy storage system integrator), Xingfu Electronics (general wet electronic chemicals), and Sikan Technology (industrial-grade 3D visual digital products) [37][40]. - It also highlights the performance of stocks such as Jiachitech and Pioneering Precision, which are noted for their innovative products in stealth coating materials and semiconductor equipment, respectively [70][44]. Valuation Trends - The report indicates that the opening valuation for newly listed stocks on the ChiNext board has decreased, with the TTM-PE for December being 76.15 times, down from 171.87 times in November [28][19]. - It also notes that the opening valuation for newly listed stocks on the main board has seen a decline, with a TTM-PE of 20.13 times in December compared to 10.62 times in November [19][20].

风险提示： 国内消费信心恢复不及预期；地产销售不达预期；品牌库存去化不及预期；原材料价格波 动；汇率大幅波动。 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 3 证券股份有限公司 ANXI SECURITIES CO., LTD. 行业研究/行业周报 目录 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 1. 本周观察： 耐克公布 FY2025Q2 季度业绩. | | | 2.本周行情回顾 | | | 2.1 板块行情 . | | | 2.2板块估值. | | | 2.3 公司行情 | | | 3.行业数据跟踪 | | | 3.1 原材料价格 | | | 3.2 出口数据 . | | | 3.3 社零数据 | | | 3.4 房地产数据 | | | 4.行业新闻 | | | 4.1 新澳股份旗下的英国羊线纱线公司获 Chanel 旗下羊线品牌 Barrie 1880 万英镑投资 . | | | 4.2 阿里巴巴向雅 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that Hubei Yihua plans to acquire 100% equity of Yichang Xinfatou for a cash consideration of 3.208 billion yuan, increasing its stake in Xinjiang Yihua from 35.60% to 75%, which enhances its growth potential [2] - Post-acquisition, the company will add significant production capacity including 600,000 tons/year of urea, 300,000 tons/year of PVC, 250,000 tons/year of caustic soda, and 30 million tons/year of coal, thereby expanding its scale advantages and upstream coal resource layout [2] - The report projects that the net profit of Yihua Mining will reach 1.129 billion yuan in 2025, supported by a commitment of at least 3.012 billion yuan in cumulative net profit over three years, reflecting strong growth confidence [2] Company Overview - Hubei Yihua's existing major products include urea, diammonium phosphate, PVC, and isobutanol with production capacities of 1.56 million tons/year, 1.26 million tons/year, 840,000 tons/year, and 60,000 tons/year respectively [5] - The company is positioned well within the "fertilizer + coal + coal chemical" industry chain, which is expected to provide a competitive edge [5] Cost Advantages - Yihua Mining's coal resources are located in the Xinjiang Zhuandong Wucaiwan mining area, with a total resource reserve of 2.108 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 1.32 billion tons, characterized by shallow burial, stable geological structure, and favorable resource endowment [3] - The average coal production cost from January to July 2024 is reported at 73.17 yuan/ton, indicating a strong cost advantage that mitigates risks during market downturns [3] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Hubei Yihua from 2024 to 2026 are 934 million yuan, 1.049 billion yuan, and 1.280 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 14, and 11 times [5] - The acquisition's implied price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 13 times based on the increased equity stake, which is seen as beneficial for minority shareholders [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add-B" rating to Hubei Yihua (000422.SZ) for its growth potential following the consolidation of high-quality coal assets from Xinjiang [4]. Core Views - The acquisition of Xinjiang Yihua's coal assets enhances the company's growth prospects, with expected net profits of 934 million, 1.049 billion, and 1.28 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 14, and 11 times respectively [4]. - The company has a diversified product portfolio including urea, diammonium phosphate, polyvinyl chloride, and isobutylene, with production capacities of 156, 126, 84, and 6 million tons per year, respectively [4]. - The report highlights the company's strong cost advantages in coal production, with a production cost of only 73.17 yuan per ton in the first seven months of 2024, indicating resilience even in low market conditions [2]. Financial Data Summary - The projected revenue for 2024 is 18.096 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [14]. - The expected net profit for 2024 is 934 million yuan, showing a significant recovery from a net profit of 453 million yuan in 2023, which was a decline of 79.1% [14]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 12.7% in 2023 to 13.5% in 2024, with a net margin of 5.2% anticipated for 2024 [14]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise to 14.2% in 2024 from 9.3% in 2023 [14]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The report emphasizes that Xinjiang Yihua's coal assets are of high quality, with a total resource reserve of 2.108 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 1.32 billion tons, which enhances the company's competitive position in the market [2][4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the integration of its fertilizer and coal businesses, creating a synergistic effect that is expected to drive future growth [4].

Group 1 - The report discusses the initial ruling on anti-dumping duties for lysine, indicating that the impact is expected to be limited based on historical precedents [17][31][32] - The report highlights that China's lysine production capacity holds significant global importance, and finding cost-competitive alternatives overseas is challenging in the short term [32] - It notes that European clients have already engaged in inventory replenishment actions prior to the anti-dumping event, suggesting that the short-term impact will be minimal [33] Group 2 - The report on Stik's issuance of restricted stock grants emphasizes clear performance assessment targets, with revenue growth targets set at 40% for 2025, 25% for 2026, and 26% for 2027 [16][26] - The performance targets for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are higher than the consensus expectations of 31% and 22% for those years, indicating a more optimistic outlook [16]

Group 1: Market Trends - The report indicates that in October, the electricity consumption growth rate has slowed down, but there is optimism for subsequent demand recovery [4][7] - The overall electricity consumption from January to October reached 81,836 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [4][5] - In October, the total electricity consumption was 7,742 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [4][5] Group 2: Power Generation Insights - From January to October, the cumulative power generation was 78,027 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [5] - In October, wind power generation saw a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 34.0%, while hydropower generation decreased by 14.9% [5][9] - The report highlights that the average utilization hours of power generation equipment slightly declined in October [5] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on power companies in the Yangtze River Delta region, such as Waneng Power and Sheneng Co., which have significant regional advantages [10] - It also recommends companies benefiting from the electricity market reform, such as Guodian Power and Huadian International, as well as those with stable performance and dividend logic like Changjiang Power [10] - The report emphasizes the potential of offshore wind projects in Fujian province, which are expected to maintain a favorable outlook due to improved wind resources and reduced construction costs [9][10] Group 4: Solar Industry Analysis - The report notes that prices for polysilicon, silicon wafers, and modules remained stable, while N-type battery prices decreased [18][19] - The average price of polysilicon is reported at 39.0 CNY/kg, with a stable market outlook due to concentrated procurement before the Spring Festival [18] - The report highlights the importance of new technology directions in the solar sector, recommending companies like Aiko Solar and Longi Green Energy [22]

Group 1: Coal Industry - The coal supply has continued to recover, with a slight increase in raw coal production in the first eleven months of 2024, reaching 4.322 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.20% [22][24] - Manufacturing investment remains high, with fixed asset investment growing by 3.3% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment increasing by 9.30% [23][27] - The prices of thermal coal and coking coal are under pressure, with Shanxi mixed thermal coal averaging 845 RMB/ton in November, down 10.64% year-on-year [24][25] Group 2: New Stock Market - The new stock market activity has decreased, with the first-day gains of new stocks in December showing a decline in valuation [4][5] - Notable new listings include Pioneer Precision, which saw a first-day increase of 652.88% with a valuation of 83.84 times [4][6] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a significant number of new stocks experiencing declines [4][5] Group 3: Consumer Retail - In November 2024, the total retail sales in China reached 4.38 trillion RMB, growing by 3.0% year-on-year, but below market expectations [12][14] - Online retail channels continue to outperform traditional retail, with online sales of physical goods increasing by 6.8% year-on-year [14][15] - The consumer confidence index showed signs of recovery, ending a continuous decline since April 2024 [14][15] Group 4: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing the stock market and expanding personal pension products [28][29] - The conference highlighted the need for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to support market liquidity [28][29] - The personal pension market is expected to grow significantly, with over 6 trillion RMB in pension assets currently managed by public funds [29][30] Group 5: Agriculture Sector - The pig farming sector is expected to maintain good profitability in the fourth quarter, with pig prices showing an upward trend [34][35] - The average price of live pigs in key provinces has increased, indicating a recovery in the market [34][35] - The overall financial condition of the industry is under pressure, necessitating a recovery cycle to restore balance sheets [35][36] Group 6: Communication Industry - Google's Willow quantum computing chip has made significant advancements, potentially accelerating the commercialization of quantum computing [39][40] - Broadcom's ASIC business is performing better than expected, with a projected market size of up to 90 billion USD by 2027 [40][42] - The communication sector is experiencing varied performance, with specific segments like IoT and cloud computing showing strong growth [42][43] Group 7: Chemical Raw Materials - The new materials sector has seen a decline, with the new materials index dropping by 1.89% [44][45] - The central economic meeting emphasized the development of new productive forces and a comprehensive green transition [48][49] - The synthetic biology market is projected to reach nearly 2 trillion RMB by 2033, with a CAGR of 16.6% from 2023 to 2033 [48][49]

illy i 证券研究报告 2024 年 12 月 18 日 行业研究/行业月度报告 电力及公用事业板块近一年市场表现 【山证电力及公用事业】供需两旺，火 电改善超预期-【山证煤炭公用】电力行 业 2024 年三季报综述 2024.11.27 【山证电力及公用事业】9 月用电量增速 超预期，火电边际改善显著-【山证煤炭 公用】电力月报 2024.11.13 发电端： 1-10 月发电量增长；10 月风电发电增速提升。1-10 月，规模 以上电厂累计发电量 78027 亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.2%，较去年同期增加 0.8pct，较 1-9 月下降 0.20pct；其中，火电发电量 52231 亿千瓦时，同比增 长 1.90%，占比达 66.9%；水电发电量 11101 亿千瓦时，同比增长 12.20%， 占比 14.2%；风电发电量 7581 亿千瓦时，同比增长 13.1%，占比 9.7%；核 电发电量 3643 亿千瓦时，同比增长 1.5%，占比 4.7%；光伏发电量 3472 亿 千瓦时，同比增长 27.5%，占比 4.5%。10 月当月，规模以上电厂发电量同 比增长 2.1%；其中火电同比增长 1.8%， ...