新材料 骏鼎达（301538.SZ） 买入-B(首次) 公司上市以来股价表现 投资要点： | 市场数据：2025 年 | 5 月 27 | 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | | | 51.85 | | 总股本（亿股）： | | | 0.78 | | 流通股本（亿股）： | | | 0.31 | | 流通市值（亿元）： | | | 16.19 | | 基础数据：2025 年 3 月 | 31 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元）： | | 23.50 | | 每股资本公积（元）： | | 9.21 | | 每股未分配利润（元）： | | 12.81 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | 冀泳洁 博士 执业登记编码：S0760523120002 邮箱：jiyongjie@sxzq.com 冯瑞 执业登记编码：S0760524070001 邮箱：fengrui@sxzq.com 研究助理： 申向阳 功能性保护套管领军者，"单丝自供+研发创新"打造护城河 2025 年 5 月 28 日 公司研究/深度分析 邮箱：shenxiang ...

研究早观点 2025 年 5 月 28 日 星期三 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,340.69 | -0.18 | | 深证成指 | 10,029.11 | -0.61 | | 沪深 300 | 3,839.40 | -0.54 | | 中小板指 | 6,282.82 | -0.85 | | 创业板指 | 1,991.64 | -0.68 | | 科创 50 | 972.92 | -0.95 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证农业】农业行业周报（2025.05.19-2025.05.25）-看好海大集团的 投资机会 【行业评论】计算机：AI 算力专题报告：AI 产业高景气持续，算力国 产化大势所趋 【行业评论】非银行金融：行业周报（20250519-20250525）：-科技金 融布局完善，科技板引来新活水 研究早观点 【今日要点】 【山证农业】农业行业周报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group and "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development and Wens Foodstuffs [3] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to see a recovery in feed demand, particularly for Haida Group, which is anticipated to enter an upward phase in its operational fundamentals due to declining upstream raw material prices and improving downstream farming conditions [5][6] - The report highlights that the pig farming industry is entering a profit cycle starting from Q2 2024, with expectations of a prolonged profitability period that may exceed market pessimism [6] - The poultry industry is also projected to benefit from a potential demand rebound in 2025, with Shengnong Development positioned well for value appreciation [7] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of May 23, 2025, the average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 14.05, 15.39, and 14.25 yuan/kg respectively, with a mixed weekly change [5] - The average pork price was 20.95 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.05% week-on-week [5] - The self-breeding profit was 48.21 yuan/head, while the profit from purchasing piglets was -16.06 yuan/head [5] Poultry Farming - The weekly price for white feather broilers was 7.36 yuan/kg, down 0.54% from the previous week [50] - The price for chicken eggs was 7.20 yuan/kg, reflecting a decrease of 6.01% [50] Feed Processing - In April 2025, the total industrial feed production in China reached 27.53 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 4.2% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [58] - The report notes a significant decline in feed product factory prices, with a slight month-on-month increase in compound and concentrated feed prices [58] Aquaculture - As of May 23, 2025, the price for sea cucumbers was 90.00 yuan/kg, while shrimp was priced at 280.00 yuan/kg, both remaining stable [65] - Freshwater fish prices showed slight increases, with grass carp at 15.95 yuan/kg, up 0.63% [65] Crop and Grain Processing - As of May 23, 2025, soybean prices were 3927.89 yuan/ton, remaining stable, while corn and wheat prices were 2376.08 and 2464.56 yuan/ton respectively, with minor fluctuations [77]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the AI computing industry, with a specific focus on the domestic computing power sector [1]. Core Insights - The AI industry continues to experience high growth, with a strong trend towards domestic computing power localization. The demand for AI computing power is driven by both internet companies and intelligent computing centers, with rapid advancements in domestic chip procurement [1][3]. - The report highlights that the domestic AI chip market is expanding, with leading domestic manufacturers accelerating their performance and capacity breakthroughs to compete with Nvidia [4][36]. - The AI server market is undergoing significant changes, with the Ascend series of chips gaining market share among traditional server manufacturers [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Industry Growth and Localization - The demand for computing power is being driven by the need for training and inference in AI applications, with significant investments expected to rise from $1 billion in 2023 to $6.5 billion in 2024, marking a 5.5-fold increase [13][16]. - Internet companies are expected to maintain strong capital expenditures for AI, with a projected 163% year-on-year increase in capital spending from major players like Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba in 2024 [22][24]. - The intelligent computing center projects are increasing, with a focus on domestic chip procurement due to government policies and the need for secure and controllable technology [31][34]. 2. AI Chips: Domestic Replacement Opportunities - Nvidia currently dominates the domestic AI chip market, holding an 85% share in 2022, but domestic chip manufacturers are expected to increase their market share to approximately 30% by 2024 [36][37]. - The tightening of U.S. export controls on high-performance AI chips is creating opportunities for domestic manufacturers to fill the gap left by Nvidia [39][40]. - Domestic chip manufacturers are rapidly advancing, with companies like Huawei, Haiguang Information, and Cambricon making significant strides in performance and ecosystem development [4][43]. 3. AI Servers: Market Dynamics - The AI server market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to reach $25.3 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate of over 20% from 2024 to 2028 [5][6]. - The Ascend series of chips is gaining traction among major internet companies and intelligent computing centers, leading to increased market share for manufacturers like Inspur [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic manufacturers in the AI server market, with companies like Haiguang Information and Inspur expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI-driven servers [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for the computer AI computing industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][2]. Core Insights - The AI industry continues to experience high prosperity, with a strong trend towards domestic computing power localization. The demand for AI computing power is driven by both the internet sector and intelligent computing centers, with rapid advancements in domestic procurement of AI chips [1][3][20]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Industry Prosperity and Localization - The demand for computing power and localization are the two main factors driving the rapid development of domestic AI computing. The investment in foundational model training is expected to increase significantly, with spending projected to rise from $1 billion in 2023 to $6.5 billion in 2024, a 5.5-fold increase [13][20]. - Internet companies are continuously investing in large model training, with capital expenditures expected to grow by 163% year-on-year in 2024. The demand for inference models is anticipated to become a major driver of AI computing power spending [22][24]. - The construction of intelligent computing centers is accelerating, with a significant increase in project bidding since 2023. The domestic AI chip procurement rate in these centers is expected to rise as government policies support localization [20][34]. 2. AI Chips: Domestic Replacement Opportunities - Nvidia currently dominates the domestic AI chip market, holding an 85% share in 2022, while domestic brands accounted for only 10%. However, by 2024, domestic AI chip shipments are expected to reach 270,000 units, with local brands capturing approximately 30% of the market [36][37]. - The tightening of U.S. export controls on high-performance AI chips is creating opportunities for domestic manufacturers to increase their market share. Major internet companies are beginning to scale up their procurement of domestic AI chips, with ByteDance reportedly ordering over 100,000 units of the domestic Ascend 910B chip [28][39]. 3. AI Servers: Market Dynamics - The AI server market is expected to grow rapidly, with the market size projected to reach $25.3 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 20% from 2024 to 2028. The demand for AI servers is driven by both traditional server manufacturers and domestic ODM companies entering the market [5][6]. - The Ascend series of chips is gaining market share, with significant growth in procurement from internet companies and intelligent computing centers. The report highlights the performance improvements of domestic chips, which are increasingly seen as viable alternatives to Nvidia's offerings [5][6][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Insights - The non-bank financial industry has seen a comprehensive layout in fintech, attracting new investments into the technology sector [1] - Recent policy measures from the Ministry of Science and Technology, in collaboration with the central bank and other regulatory bodies, aim to enhance financial support for major technological tasks and small to medium-sized tech enterprises [4][12] - The launch of the "Technology Board" in the bond market is expected to expand financing channels for financial institutions and tech companies, with 33 technology bonds issued totaling 177.4 billion yuan, representing 25.74% of the total issuance [5][13] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report emphasizes the importance of a supportive fintech system aligned with technological innovation, highlighting 15 specific policy measures to enhance financial backing for tech enterprises [12][27] - The policies cover various financing methods and aim to facilitate the transformation of technological achievements into productive forces [12] Market Review - The major indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.57%, the CSI 300 down by 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.88% during the week [6][14] - The total trading volume in A-shares was 5.87 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 1.17 trillion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7.34% [14][19] Industry Key Data Tracking - As of May 23, the market had 3,127.88 billion shares pledged, accounting for 3.86% of total equity; the margin trading balance was 1.80 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.28% [19][26] - In April 2025, new fund issuance totaled 924.88 billion units, with a notable increase in equity fund issuance by 21.27% [19][21] - The bond market's total price index has decreased by 0.83% since the beginning of the year, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 11.31 basis points to 1.72% [19][23] Regulatory Policies and Industry Dynamics - The report outlines the ongoing reforms in public offerings and monetary policies aimed at expanding financial support for technology-driven enterprises [3][27] - The central bank has emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to meet the financing needs of the real economy, particularly in technology innovation and small to medium enterprises [27]

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,346.84, down 0.05% [4] - The coal sector experienced a rebound, outperforming major indices, with the CITIC Coal Index rising by 0.98% [8] Coal Industry Insights - The coal production remains stable, with a slight increase in demand due to rising temperatures in northern regions, while southern regions experience increased hydropower output [6] - As of May 23, the spot price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 620 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly decrease of 1.43% [6] - The metallurgical coal sector is seeing a potential uplift in demand, with production levels stable and expectations for improved demand due to recent monetary policy easing [6][9] Solar Energy Sector - In April 2025, the domestic solar photovoltaic (PV) installations reached 45.2 GW, marking a year-on-year increase of 214.7% and a month-on-month increase of 123.4% [11] - The inverter export value in April was 5.82 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 17.9% [13] - The solar power generation in April increased by 16.7% year-on-year, contributing to 6.29% of the total industrial power generation [13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong performance support, particularly those with low non-coal business ratios such as Xinjie Energy and Huahua Energy [9][19] - Companies with significant non-coal business ratios like Shaanxi Energy and Electric Power Investment Energy are also highlighted as undervalued [9][19] - The report emphasizes the attractiveness of high dividend yield stocks, recommending China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry for stable high dividend yields, while Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma are suggested for high elasticity in dividends [9][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the coal industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved, leading to a rebound in secondary market performance. The coal production remains normal, while the demand is expected to recover as summer storage needs arise. However, coal prices are under pressure due to high temperatures in northern regions and increased hydropower output in southern areas [1][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - **Thermal Coal**: Port inventories continue to decrease, with summer storage demand anticipated. As of May 23, the reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 620 CNY/ton, a weekly change of -1.43% [3][24]. - **Metallurgical Coal**: Demand is expected to improve from the bottom, with continued inventory reduction. The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1300 CNY/ton, a weekly change of -1.52% [4][38]. - **Coking and Steel Industry Chain**: Coking coal prices are declining, but the overall price drop is expected to be limited due to macroeconomic improvements and stable steel demand [5][58]. - **Coal Transportation**: Coastal coal transportation prices are rising due to inventory reduction and port closures. The coastal coal transportation index was 717.21 points, a weekly change of +8.38% [7][69]. - **Coal-related Futures**: Futures prices for coking coal and coke are declining, reflecting the return of demand logic in the downstream market [71][74]. 2. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector has outperformed major indices, with the CITIC Coal Index closing at 3276.27 points, a weekly change of +0.98%. The coal mining sub-sector showed a weekly change of +1.16% [8][76]. 3. Industry News Summary - The report highlights various industry developments, including China's direct foreign investment growth and the completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations, which may impact coal trade dynamics [83][84]. 4. Important Announcements from Listed Companies - Notable announcements include Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal's progress on a tender offer for Shandong Xinchao Energy and other corporate governance updates from various coal companies [86]. 5. Next Week's Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while coal prices may face downward pressure, the overall decline is expected to be limited. It recommends focusing on undervalued companies with strong performance support, such as Xinjie Energy and Shaanxi Energy, and highlights the attractiveness of high-dividend stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [9][88].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the coal industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved, leading to a rebound in secondary market performance. The coal production remains normal, while the demand for coal is expected to recover as summer approaches, despite some downward pressure on prices due to seasonal factors [1][9]. - The report highlights that the domestic coal price is expected to have limited downward space, with the price of thermal coal remaining relatively stable as summer inventory demand is anticipated to rise [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - **Thermal Coal**: Port inventories continue to decrease, with summer inventory demand expected to emerge. As of May 23, the spot reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 620 CNY/ton, a weekly change of -1.43% [3][24]. - **Metallurgical Coal**: Demand is expected to improve from the bottom, with metallurgical coal inventories continuing to decrease. The price of metallurgical coal is expected to have limited downward space [4][37]. - **Coke and Steel Industry Chain**: In the off-season, coke prices continue to decline, but the profit margins for coke enterprises have improved. The average price of first-grade metallurgical coke in Tianjin Port was 1480 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [5][58]. - **Coal Transportation**: Due to inventory reduction and port closures, coastal coal transportation prices have continued to rise. As of May 23, the coastal coal transportation price index was 717.21 points, a weekly change of +8.38% [7][69]. - **Coal-related Futures**: The report notes a downward trend in double coke futures prices, with the active contract for coking coal closing at 801.50 CNY/ton, a weekly change of -5.98% [71][74]. 2. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector has rebounded against the trend, outperforming major indices. The CITIC coal index closed at 3276.27 points, with a weekly change of +0.98% [8][76]. 3. Industry News Summary - The report includes various industry news, such as the increase in China's foreign direct investment and the completion of negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version, which may impact coal trade dynamics [83][84]. 4. Important Announcements from Listed Companies - The report summarizes key announcements from companies in the coal sector, including acquisition plans and stockholder meeting notifications [86]. 5. Next Week's Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should focus on companies with strong performance support and undervalued stocks, particularly those with a small proportion of non-coal business. Recommended stocks include Xinjie Energy, Haohua Energy, and Zhongmei Energy [9][88].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH), Longi Green Energy (601012.SH), and others, with ratings ranging from "Buy-A" to "Buy-B" [2]. Core Insights - The solar industry has seen significant growth, with domestic photovoltaic (PV) installations in April 2025 reaching 45.2 GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 214.7% and a month-on-month increase of 123.4% [3][13]. - The cumulative PV installations from January to April 2025 totaled 104.9 GW, marking a 74.6% increase compared to the same period last year [3][13]. - In terms of exports, the PV module export value in April 2025 was 16.16 billion yuan, down 20.3% year-on-year and 8.5% month-on-month, while the inverter export value was 5.82 billion yuan, up 17.9% year-on-year and 28.0% month-on-month [4][5][16][30]. - Solar power generation in April 2025 increased by 16.7% year-on-year, contributing to 6.29% of the total national power generation [6][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Installation - April 2025 saw a domestic PV installation of 45.2 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 214.7% and a month-on-month growth of 123.4% [3][13]. - Cumulative installations from January to April 2025 reached 104.9 GW, reflecting a 74.6% increase year-on-year [3][13]. 2. Exports - PV module exports in April 2025 totaled 16.16 billion yuan, down 20.3% year-on-year and 8.5% month-on-month, with a cumulative export value of 62.24 billion yuan from January to April, down 26.5% year-on-year [4][16]. - Inverter exports in April 2025 were valued at 5.82 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 17.9% and a month-on-month increase of 28.0%, with a cumulative export value of 18.03 billion yuan from January to April, up 10.0% year-on-year [5][30]. 3. Power Generation - Solar power generation in April 2025 was 44.75 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.7% and accounting for 6.29% of the total national power generation [6][45].