通信 周跟踪（20260209-20260215） 领先大市-A(维持) ——国产大模型春节档密集推新，NPO 和柜内光 3 月重点关注 2026 年 2 月 26 日 行业研究/行业周报 通信行业近一年市场表现 行业动向： 资料来源：常闻 相关报告： 【山证通信】北美资本开支增长并 未见顶，Scaleup 是光通信重要增量-周跟 【山证通信】——moltbot 爆火背后 1）国产大模型春节档密集更新，算力告急下国产 GPU Day0 适配市场巨大。 春节档豆包、元宝、千问"红包大战"与春节主题密集投流体现出国内大模型 C 端争抢流量入口进入白热化阶段，我们认为智能体 APP 渗透率的快速提升叠加智 能体能力的开放有望带来 Token 的非线性增长维持资本开支的刚性。大模型推新 方面，厂商密集发布与市场的热烈反馈表明我国在大模型算法创新和训练方面与 全球一线梯队接近。其中，字节豆包大模型 2.0 系列除夕上线，重点强化多模态 交互、AGENT 自主任务能力和代码生成效率，seedance2.0 更是支持 60 秒生成电 影级多镜头视频并为春晚部分视觉内容提供创作支持；阿里除夕同步上线千问 Qwen3.5 pl ...

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,147.23, up by 0.72% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.29%, closing at 14,475.87 [4] Coal Industry Analysis - The coal industry report highlights the impact of rising overseas coal prices on domestic coal prices, indicating a need for close monitoring [5][6] - Domestic thermal coal prices are stabilizing with a slight adjustment, as production decreases due to increased holiday shutdowns in coal mines. The spot price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region was reported at 717 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +0.70% [9] - Coking coal prices remained stable, with the main coking coal price at 1,660 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [9] - The report suggests that supply will gradually recover post-holiday, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment demand and market recovery [9] Company Analysis: DingTong Technology (688668.SH) - DingTong Technology forecasts a revenue of 1.59 billion CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.4%, and a net profit of 240 million CNY, up by 119.6% [12] - The company is experiencing significant growth in high-speed communication products, with expectations for 112G product shipments to exceed 2 million units monthly by 2026 [12] - The production capacity for communication connectors is set to increase significantly following the issuance of convertible bonds, with an additional annual capacity of 12 million connectors and 20 million precision structural components [12] - The report anticipates a rapid increase in the penetration rate of liquid cooling solutions for optical modules, with production capacity expected to reach 780,000 units annually [12] - The automotive connector segment is also expected to grow, with a focus on BMS projects, and an anticipated increase in production capacity of 344,000 units [12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the loosening of the US dollar credit system may lead to a revaluation of physical assets, benefiting companies in the coal sector such as Guanghui Energy and others [9] - For coking coal, companies like Panjiang Coal and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9] - In the thermal coal sector, companies such as Yanzhou Coal, Shanxi International Energy, and China Shenhua are recommended for consideration [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the coal industry, indicating an expected price increase exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [2][78]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of rising overseas coal prices on domestic coal prices, particularly due to supply constraints and adjustments in the market [2][3]. - Domestic thermal coal prices are stabilizing amid reduced production as many coal mines announce holiday shutdowns during the Spring Festival [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor downstream replenishment demand and market recovery following the holiday period [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The coal industry has shown a stable adjustment in prices, with the reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region at 717 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly change of +0.70% as of February 13 [3]. - The Qinhuangdao port thermal coal closing price reached 718 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of +3.31% [3]. 2. Dynamic Data Tracking 2.1 Thermal Coal - Supply has contracted, leading to price adjustments. The total coal inventory at nine ports in the Bohai Rim is 23.662 million tons, with a weekly decrease of -0.7% [3][4]. 2.2 Metallurgical Coal - Most coal mines are on holiday, resulting in stable market prices. The price for main coking coal at the Jingtang port is 1,660 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the revaluation of physical assets, such as Guohui Energy, and recommends attention to specific firms in both thermal and metallurgical coal sectors [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.59 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 240 million yuan, which is a 119.6% increase year-on-year [1] - The demand for communication connectors is robust, driven by AI, with significant growth in high-speed communication products, particularly the 112G products [1][2] - The global market for Ethernet optical modules above 100G is projected to grow from 16.5 billion USD in 2025 to 26 billion USD in 2026, indicating strong market potential [2] - The company is expanding its production capacity significantly, with plans to add 12 million communication connectors and 20 million precision structural components annually [2][3] - The company has entered mass production of liquid cooling optical modules, with annual production capacity expected to reach 200,000 to 300,000 sets [3] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 240 million yuan for 2025, 590 million yuan for 2026, and 850 million yuan for 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.75, 4.26, and 6.10 yuan [7] - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.59 billion yuan in 2025 to 3.06 billion yuan in 2026, and further to 4.44 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [8] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 30% in 2025 to 33.3% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [8] Market Data - As of February 24, 2026, the closing price of the stock is 144.36 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 20.105 billion yuan [5] - The company has a total share capital of 139 million shares, with a circulating market value of 20.105 billion yuan [5] Production Capacity and Projects - The company is set to increase its production capacity for automotive connectors, particularly in the BMS project, with an expected annual output of 374,400 aluminum busbar products, potentially generating an additional revenue of 468 million yuan [7] - The company has established partnerships with major clients in the automotive sector, including BYD and Changan Automobile, to enhance its market position [3][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [1]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a revenue of 1.59 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 240 million yuan, up 119.6% year-on-year [1]. - The demand for communication connectors is robust, driven by AI, with significant growth in high-speed communication products, particularly the 112G products [1][2]. - The global market for Ethernet optical modules above 100G is projected to grow from 16.5 billion USD in 2025 to 26 billion USD in 2026, benefiting the company as it partners with major manufacturers [2]. - The company is expanding its production capacity significantly, with plans to add 12 million communication connectors and 20 million precision structural components annually [2][3]. - The company has entered mass production of liquid cooling optical modules, with annual production capacity expected to reach 200,000 to 300,000 sets [3]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company expects net profits of 240 million yuan in 2025, 590 million yuan in 2026, and 850 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.75, 4.26, and 6.10 yuan [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.59 billion yuan, 3.06 billion yuan, and 4.44 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 54.3%, 91.9%, and 45.5% [8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 30% in 2025 to 33.3% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [8]. Market Data - As of February 24, 2026, the closing price of the stock is 144.36 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 20.105 billion yuan [5]. - The company has a total share capital of 139 million shares, with a circulating market value of 20.105 billion yuan [5].

研究早观点 2026 年 2 月 25 日 星期三 市场走势 【今日要点】 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 4,117.41 | 0.87 | | 深证成指 | | 14,291.57 | 1.36 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,707.54 | 1.01 | | 中小板指 | | 8,690.57 | 1.18 | | 创业板指 | | 3,308.26 | 0.99 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,465.37 | -0.34 | 资料来源：常闻 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 2 研究早观点 2026 年春节假期国内旅游市场情况：春节假期 9 天，国内出游 5.96 亿人次，较 2025 年 8 天假期增加 0.95 亿人次；国内出游总花费 8034.83 亿元，较 2025 年 8 天假 ...

Industry Overview - The report highlights that North American capital expenditures are expected to continue growing, driven by AI investments, with a projected total of $660 billion in 2026, a 60% increase from 2025 and more than double the 2024 figures [6][7] - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are experiencing significant growth in their cloud businesses, with Amazon's cloud sales reaching $128.7 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, and Microsoft's Azure revenue exceeding $75 billion, up 34% [6][7] - The integration of AI into traditional business models is revitalizing sectors such as search, advertising, and e-commerce, with AI-driven tools generating substantial new revenue streams [6][7] Company Analysis: Huafeng Technology (688629.SH) - Huafeng Technology anticipates a net profit of 338-388 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.6-40.6 million yuan [9][10] - The company is focusing on the development of high-speed line modules and has a robust pipeline of domestic super-node projects, which are expected to accelerate production [9][10] - The demand for AI servers and related equipment is driving revenue growth, with the company projecting a significant increase in orders and production capacity for high-speed line modules [10] Company Analysis: Changan Automobile (000625.SZ) - Changan Automobile plans to repurchase shares worth 1-2 billion yuan to enhance investor confidence, with a clear sales target of 3.3 million vehicles for 2026, representing a 13.3% increase [12][14] - The company reported a total sales volume of 2.913 million vehicles in 2025, marking an 8.5% year-on-year growth, with a strong focus on electric vehicles, which saw a 51.1% increase [12][14] - Changan aims to launch 43 new models over the next three years and is investing 6 billion yuan in new energy vehicle development and smart platform projects [12][14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected growth exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [1]. Core Insights - North American major CSPs have released their financial reports, indicating that AI has transitioned from a cost center to a revenue engine, leading to an urgent and genuine increase in capital expenditures for 2026, which are expected to exceed forecasts [2][17]. - The cloud business is experiencing significant growth through AI capabilities, with AWS cloud sales increasing by 20% year-on-year to reach $128.7 billion, and Google Cloud projected to exceed $70 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2025, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure and solutions [3][17]. - The total capital expenditure planned by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta for 2026 is projected to reach $660 billion, a 60% increase from 2025 and more than double that of 2024, with Amazon's expected expenditure of $200 billion exceeding market expectations by $50 billion [5][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The AI investment cycle is distinct from previous cloud computing infrastructure phases, with the current capital expenditure cycle not showing signs of peaking, as evidenced by the rapid growth of AI tokens and the introduction of various automated programming workflows [6][20]. - The competition between CPO and optical module technology routes has caused market fluctuations, with concerns about the potential market space being consumed by CPO advancements [10][22]. Market Performance - The overall market saw a decline during the week of February 2-6, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.27% and the Shenwan Communication Index falling by 6.95%. However, the optical cable and submarine cable sector experienced a notable increase of 19.05% [11][23]. - Individual stock performance showed significant gains for companies like Longfly Fiber and Tongyu Communication, while companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Lian Te Technology faced substantial declines [11][37]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include those involved in Scaleup/NPO such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and Newyi Sheng, as well as those in passive optical components like Zhishang Technology and Changxin Bochuang [11][23].

通信 周跟踪（20260202-20260208） 领先大市-A(维持) ——北美资本开支增长并未见顶，Scaleup 是光通信重要增量 2026 年 2 月 13 日 行业研究/行业周报 通信行业近一年市场表现 行业动向： 1）北美主要 CSP 陆续发布财报，AI 飞轮高速运转，2026 资本开支指引超 预期。近期，北美主要 CSP 完成了 2025 年度财报的公布，普遍向外界传达的信 号是 AI 已从成本中心转为收入引擎，继续扩大投资急迫且真实。 资料来源：常闻 相关报告： 【山证通信】——moltbot 爆火背后 1.1 云业务通过 AI 算力与工具实现高增。例如，AWS 云销售额同比增长 20% 达到 1287 亿美元，其 Bedrock 上托管的 20+个模型得到客户来自项目编程、推理 和代理工作流程的全面需求。谷歌云 2025 年末年化营收突破 700 亿美元成为增 长最快的核心业务，主要得益于企业 AI 基础设施、AI 解决方案及核心云服务的 强劲客户需求。微软 Azure 的年收入已超过 750 亿美元，同比增长 34%，主要来 自 OpenAI 等大客户的长期订单、Azure AI Foun ...

其他电子零组件Ⅲ 华丰科技（688629.SH） 买入-B(维持) 国产超节点项目储备丰富，高速线模组加速放量 2026 年 2 月 13 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 投资要点： 公司发布 2025年度业绩预告。公司预计 2025年实现归母净利润 3.38-3.88 亿元，同比增加 3.56-4.06 亿元。实现扣非归母净利润 3.02-3.52 亿元，同比增 长 3.80-4.30 亿元。按照业绩预告中值，公司 25Q4 或实现归母净利润 1.4 亿 元，同环比分别+351.6%、+94.4%。公司表示，数据中心建设热潮拉动的交 换机、AI 服务器及核心路由器关键设备需求传导至上游是带动收入快速增长 原因。 收盘价（元/股）： 105.76 总股本（亿股）： 4.61 流通股本（亿股）： 1.82 流通市值（亿元）： 192.25 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 30 日 每股净资产（元/股）： 3.66 每股资本公积（元/股）： 1.73 每股未分配利润（元/股）： 0.84 资料来源：常闻 分析师： 国产超节点服务器层出不穷，华为昇腾系列互联带宽提升路径清晰。英 伟达 GB200 NVL ...