Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,120.43, up by 0.92%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14,120.15, up by 1.15% [4]. Group 2: Industry Commentary on AI and Manufacturing - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with seven other departments, released the "Implementation Opinions on 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'" on January 7, aiming for significant advancements in the industrial AI sector by 2027. The goals include the deep application of 3-5 general large models in manufacturing, the creation of 100 high-quality datasets, and the cultivation of 2-3 globally influential enterprises [6]. - The opinions detail specific requirements in areas such as computing power, models, data, and application scenarios. For instance, it emphasizes breakthroughs in high-end training chips and intelligent cloud operating systems, as well as the development of industry-specific models [6]. - The report anticipates that the implementation of these opinions will accelerate the penetration of large models across the entire manufacturing process, enhancing areas such as design, production, and management [6]. - The penetration rate of AI applications in Chinese industrial enterprises is projected to rise significantly, from 9.6% in 2024 to 47.5% in 2025, with further rapid growth expected in 2026 due to policy support [6]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in industrial AI applications, such as Zhongkong Technology, Kingdee International, and others. Additionally, it highlights opportunities in data annotation and AI computing power sectors [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the computer industry [1][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of AI development in the manufacturing sector, driven by a recent policy issued by multiple government departments, aiming for significant advancements in AI technology and its applications by 2027 [3][5]. - The policy outlines specific goals, including the application of 3-5 general large models in manufacturing, the creation of 100 high-quality datasets, and the promotion of 500 typical application scenarios [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the transition of industrial AI from isolated applications to comprehensive integration across all manufacturing processes, with significant growth in AI adoption among industrial enterprises [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer industry has shown a strong market performance over the past year, with a focus on AI applications in manufacturing [1]. Policy Impact - The recent policy is a detailed implementation of previous guidelines, focusing on computational power, model development, data management, and application scenarios in manufacturing [5][6]. - Specific initiatives include support for advanced training chips, the development of industry-specific models, and the establishment of a chief data officer system in enterprises [5][6]. AI Adoption - The report notes a significant increase in the adoption of large models and intelligent agents in Chinese industrial enterprises, rising from 9.6% in September 2024 to 47.5% in 2025, with expectations for further rapid growth in 2026 [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in industrial AI applications, data annotation, and AI computing power, including firms like Zhong控 Technology, Kingdee International, and others [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights the investment value of the real estate REITs sector following the recent regulatory clarifications by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which aims to support the revitalization of commercial real estate and stimulate consumption and investment [8][6] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of Hai'an Group, which is deeply integrated with Zijin Mining and is expanding its global market presence through significant investments in overseas manufacturing [11][12] Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,082.98, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.51% to 13,959.48 [4] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares increased by 8.30% to 21.2 trillion yuan during the period from December 29 to December 31 [8] Company Analysis: Hai'an Group - Hai'an Group announced plans to establish a joint venture in Russia for the production of giant all-steel engineering tires, with a total investment of up to 53.99 billion rubles (approximately 4.319 billion yuan), aiming for an annual production capacity of 10,500 tires [9] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 680 million yuan, 790 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 15, and 12 times, respectively [11] - The global demand for giant tires is estimated at 440,000 units, with a market size of approximately 41.9 billion yuan, indicating a significant growth opportunity for Hai'an Group in a market currently dominated by three major international brands [12] Industry Insights - The report notes that the REITs market in China is entering a new phase where commercial real estate and infrastructure development will proceed in parallel, driven by improved regulatory frameworks [8] - The giant tire market is characterized by high barriers to entry due to technological and customer loyalty factors, with the production and formulation of these tires requiring extensive validation processes [12]

2025 年 12 月 27 日，公司发布《关于对外投资暨在境外设立合资工厂的 公告》，海安集团及其全资子公司海安俄罗斯有限公司、旗舰股份公司及先 锋股份公司等四方主体于 2025 年 12 月 26 日签署了一份《投资意向协议》， 海安集团与旗舰股份公司拟对先锋股份公司增资，并以先锋股份公司（俄罗 斯海安持股 51%，旗舰股份公司持股 49%）为主体在俄罗斯建设巨型全钢工 程机械子午线轮胎工厂，预计总投资规模不超过 539.90 亿卢布（折合约 43.19 亿元人民币）,本次建设为一期工程，设计年产能为 1.05 万条/年。 事件点评 100.00/57.77 0.35/1.86 大型矿卡用轮胎极具特色，具备高壁垒、定制化、长导入周期的特点。 巨胎的壁垒主要体现在技术壁垒和客户壁垒两个方面，其一技术壁垒，巨胎 的生产制造及配方具备极高的壁垒，目前国内大尺寸巨胎的使用寿命与海外 巨头企业存在明显差距，且尺寸越大差距越大；其二客户壁垒，矿卡在运行 过程中轮胎一旦出现问题，可能会对造价高昂的矿卡造成损坏，严重影响矿 山运营导致损失，因此进入矿山企业巨胎供应商需要长周期的验证过程。巨 胎也是一款定制化的产品，根据应 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 10% [1][28]. Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released management rules for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), aiming to enhance the foundational system and optimize regulatory arrangements for the REITs market. This initiative is seen as a significant step in revitalizing existing commercial real estate, which is expected to stimulate consumption and investment, stabilize the industry, and support a new model of real estate development [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the investment value of the non-bank financial sector, particularly as regulatory policies improve and the capital market continues to develop. Some brokerage firms are expected to achieve steady growth in performance through both external and internal development strategies, exploring overseas business opportunities and leveraging competitive advantages [4][7]. Market Performance Overview - During the period from December 29 to December 31, major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.13%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.59% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.25%. The average daily trading volume in A-shares was 2.12 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.30% compared to the previous period [5][8]. - As of December 31, the margin trading balance was 2.54 trillion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.10%. The financing scale was 2.52 trillion yuan, and the margin balance was 165.26 billion yuan [14][15]. Industry Data Tracking 1) Market Performance and Scale: The report notes the performance of major indices and the average daily trading volume in A-shares, highlighting the mixed results during the specified period [8][12]. 2) Credit Business: The report provides data on the market's pledged shares and margin trading balances, indicating a slight decline in the margin trading balance [14][15]. 3) Fund Issuance: In November 2025, new fund issuance totaled 530.52 billion units, with a decrease of 34.09% in the number of funds issued compared to the previous month [14][20]. 4) Investment Banking: The report mentions that the equity underwriting scale in November 2025 was 525.75 billion yuan, with IPO amounts at 101.88 billion yuan and refinancing amounts at 423.88 billion yuan [14][20]. 5) Bond Market: The report notes a decline of 2.32% in the total price index of bonds compared to the beginning of the year, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 23.96 basis points to 1.85% [14][15].

研究早观点 2026 年 1 月 8 日 星期四 市场走势 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：周跟踪（20251229-20260104）-2025 回顾和展望， 2026 关注海外光通信、国产算力、商业航天高低切行情 【行业评论】煤炭：煤炭行业 2026 年策略报告：将反内卷进行到底 【行业评论】【山证电新】20260107 光伏产业链价格跟踪-中游价格上 行 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 研究早观点 | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,085.77 | 0.05 | | 深证成指 | 14,030.56 | 0.06 | | 沪深 300 | 4,776.67 | -0.29 | | 中小板指 | 8,611.80 | 0.21 | | 创业板指 | 3,329.69 | 0.31 | | 科创 50 | 1,443.39 | 0.99 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | ...

Investment Rating - The communication industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" and is expected to outperform the benchmark index by over 10% [1][37]. Core Insights - The communication industry showed strong performance in 2025, with a cumulative increase of 84.8%, ranking second among major industry indices. Key segments such as optical modules, liquid cooling, optical fibers, and satellite communications led the market [3][13]. - For 2026, the report highlights three main investment themes: overseas optical communications, domestic computing power, and commercial aerospace, which are expected to present high-low trading opportunities driven by event catalysts [3][13]. - The demand for 800G optical modules is projected to double in 2026, with an estimated requirement of 45 million units, indicating a significant growth trajectory for the optical communication sector [4][14]. - The acceleration of IPOs in the domestic computing power sector is expected to enhance supply capabilities, with notable companies preparing for public offerings, which will likely lead to a revaluation of comparable companies [5][15][16]. - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining attention, particularly with SpaceX's anticipated IPO, which could set a new valuation benchmark for the industry [7][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The communication industry is experiencing a robust market performance, with significant growth in segments like optical modules (357.2%), optical cables (221.4%), and satellite communications (160.2%) in 2025 [3][13]. - The report anticipates that the increase in overseas AI computing orders will continue to drive the optical communication supply chain [3][13]. 2026 Outlook - The report forecasts a clear demand for 800G optical modules, with predictions of 63 million units globally, marking a 2.6 times increase from 2025 [4][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of CPO (Coherent Photonic Optics) technology in the upcoming years, with expectations of significant market growth and technological advancements [4][14]. Domestic Computing Power - The report notes a rapid acceleration in the IPO rhythm within the domestic computing power industry, with several key players set to enter the market, enhancing the overall supply chain [5][15][16]. - Companies like Wallen Technology and Tianzuo Zhixin are highlighted for their upcoming IPOs, which are expected to significantly boost domestic computing capabilities [5][15][16]. Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX's IPO is projected to reach a valuation of $1.5 trillion, reflecting strong market confidence in the commercial aerospace sector [7][17]. - The report suggests that the IPOs of domestic companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace will create investment opportunities in upstream components [7][17]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies in the Scaleup CPO segment such as Tianfu Communication and Taicheng Technology, as well as domestic supernode companies like Inspur Information and Unisplendour [18].

煤炭 煤炭行业 2026 年策略报告 领先大市-A(维持) 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 11 月进口煤价继续提升 2025.12.30 【山证煤炭】煤炭月度供需数据点评 11 月：煤价环比上涨，反内卷初心未变 2025.12.17 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 将反内卷进行到底 2026 年 1 月 7 日 行业研究/行业年度策略 投资要点： 首选股票 评级 反内卷扭转煤炭市场预期。2025 年以来，煤炭股受累于煤价下 降，108 号文流向市场后，煤炭股悲观预期随即得到显著缓释。从 核心宏观目标来说，反内卷主要是为了扭转通缩趋势，传导链条为 "通缩→反内卷→盈利提升→通胀"。对煤炭而言，短期看供给控 制，中长期看需求复苏。反内卷需要上下游维持合理利润。"政策 顶"和"政策底"推动合理煤价中枢逐步形成。2016 年供给侧改革 和 2024 年山西查三超是反内卷运动的可比事件，底层驱动影响调 控效果，供给侧改革是债务驱动，山西查三超是安全生产驱动。 ...

Market Trends - The convertible bond market is expected to maintain a high level due to supply-demand imbalance, with a recommendation for index component adjustment and deep individual bond exploration [4][7] - Since mid-August 2025, the median market price of convertible bonds has fluctuated between 129-135 yuan, with 130 yuan being a potential upper limit due to most public convertible bonds having strong redemption clauses at 130% [7] - The overall valuation of the convertible bond market is considered high, with a significant decrease in turnover rate from 15% in late August to around 9% in October [7] 2026 Market Outlook - By the end of 2026, the number of outstanding convertible bonds is projected to decrease to around 300, with a bond balance of 480 billion yuan, and further to 250 bonds and 350 billion yuan by the end of 2027 [7] - The market is expected to focus on high-priced bonds, newly listed bonds, and bonds with less than one year remaining until maturity [7] Investment Strategies for 2026 - The convertible bond ETF currently has an AUM exceeding 52 billion yuan, with significant influence on the market [7] - A strategy involving index component adjustment arbitrage is recommended, with a historical cumulative return of 52.06% from buying new bonds on the day after listing and selling on the first day of the following month [7] - Key individual bonds to focus on include 运机, 微导, 应流, 渝水, 百润, among others [7] Industry Commentary - INHBE siRNA is identified as a promising therapy for fat reduction without muscle loss, showing potential for long-term dosing with only 1-2 injections per year [8][9] - The clinical trial results for WVE-007 indicate a 9.2% reduction in visceral fat and a 0.9% increase in lean body mass after 12 weeks [8] - ARO-INHBE combined with GLP-1 showed a 23.2% reduction in visceral fat and a 9.4% weight loss in diabetic obese patients, demonstrating superior results compared to GLP-1 alone [8][9]

Group 1 - The convertible bond market is currently experiencing high volatility, with the median market price fluctuating between 129 and 135 yuan since mid-August 2025, indicating that 130 yuan is likely the upper limit for the market price median due to strong redemption clauses in most public convertible bonds [1][11][19] - There are signs of smart money flowing out of the market, as major institutional funds, including primary and secondary bond funds, have reduced their positions in convertible bonds, leading to a decrease in the AUM of convertible bond ETFs since mid-September [2][21][26] - The overall turnover rate in the market has dropped significantly to around 9% from 15% at the end of August, suggesting increased trading difficulty and a potential outflow of smart money [2][30] Group 2 - The convertible bond market is expected to continue contracting, with the number of outstanding bonds projected to decrease to around 300 by the end of 2026 and to about 250 by the end of 2027, alongside a reduction in bond balance to approximately 480 billion yuan and 350 billion yuan respectively [3][39] - The market's valuation is anticipated to remain high despite the contraction, driven by the persistent demand from fixed income and fixed income+ funds, which still maintain a high scale of around 2.3 trillion yuan [3][40][44] - The trading focus is shifting towards high-priced bonds, newly issued bonds, and bonds with short remaining maturities, with high-priced bonds above 160 yuan contributing 55% of the total market turnover [3][56][64] Group 3 - The report outlines specific trading strategies for 2026, including an index component adjustment arbitrage strategy, which has shown significant returns when applied to newly listed bonds [4][66][74] - A focus on three investment combinations has been established: high-priced equity-oriented bonds, low-priced speculative bonds, and alternative allocation options, highlighting 35 specific bonds for attention [4][82][84] - The report emphasizes the importance of the convertible bond ETFs, which have a significant market presence, and their role in influencing market dynamics through passive index tracking [4][66][70]