煤炭 煤炭月度供需数据点评 同步大市-A(维持) 2025 年 5 月 26 日 行业研究/行业月度报告 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 3 月 进 口 负 增 ， 进 口 煤 种 结 构 变 化 2025.5.23 【山证煤炭】2025 年一季度煤炭债复盘： 平均期限创新高，市场尚未交易煤炭利 差 2025.5.22 分析师： 胡博 价格与利润：动力煤及焦煤价格相对弱势。25 年以来山西优混 5500 动 力煤价格中枢有所下降。25 年以来京唐港主焦煤均价有所降低。25 年以来 天津港二级冶金焦均价调整，但降幅小于炼焦煤。 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liuguijun@sxzq.com 点评与投资建议： 投资要点： 4 月煤炭供给端增速有所放缓，剔除低基数和山西复产等因素，新疆区 域放量情况也值得关注；需求端非电需求支撑，电力需求边际改善；国内需 求缺口较小，进口煤连续 2 个月负增。煤炭价格继续调整，或在夏季有所反 弹。动力煤方面关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market" for the coal industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The coal import data indicates a negative growth trend in imports for the first four months of 2025, with a cumulative import volume of 153 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.30%. In April alone, the import volume was 37.83 million tons, down 16.40% year-on-year and 2.32% month-on-month [12][14]. - The average import price for coal and lignite in the first four months of 2025 was recorded at $79 per ton, a decrease of 17.17% compared to the same period last year [24]. - The structure of coal imports is shifting, with a significant reduction in the proportion of thermal coal and an increase in lignite imports, reflecting the impact of global uncertainties on the coal industry [43]. Summary by Sections Coal Import Volume Data Breakdown - The total coal and lignite import volume for January to April 2025 was 153 million tons, down 5.30% year-on-year. The April import volume was 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 16.40% year-on-year and 2.32% month-on-month [12][14]. - Thermal coal imports saw a significant decline, with a total of 49.86 million tons imported in the first four months, down 20.00% year-on-year. In April, the import volume was 12.68 million tons, down 31.33% year-on-year [14]. - Coking coal imports also decreased, totaling 36.15 million tons in the first four months, a decline of 4.46% year-on-year [18]. - Lignite imports increased to 60.28 million tons, a growth of 6% year-on-year, although April saw a slight decrease [20]. - Anthracite imports surged to 6.09 million tons, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 42% [23]. Coal Import Price Data Breakdown - The average import price for coal and lignite in the first four months of 2025 was $79 per ton, down 17.17% from the previous year [24]. - The average price for thermal coal was $81 per ton, a decrease of 12.80% year-on-year [29]. - Coking coal's average price was $114 per ton, down 24.53% year-on-year [33]. - Lignite's average price was $53 per ton, a decline of 12.51% year-on-year [36]. - Anthracite's average price was $119 per ton, down 10.75% year-on-year [38]. Commentary and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong performance support, particularly those with a small proportion of non-coal business such as Xinjie Energy, Haohua Energy, and Zhongmei Energy [44]. - Companies with a larger proportion of non-coal business, like Shaanxi Energy and Electric Power Investment Energy, are also highlighted as significantly undervalued [44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for high dividend yield stocks and stable high dividend stocks, recommending companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal Industry for stable dividends, and Huaibei Mining and Pingmei Shenma for high dividend elasticity [44][45].

【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 3 月 进 口 负 增 ， 进 口 煤 种 结 构 变 化 2025.5.23 煤炭 煤炭月度供需数据点评 同步大市-A(维持) 2025 年 5 月 26 日 行业研究/行业月度报告 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 【山证煤炭】2025 年一季度煤炭债复盘： 平均期限创新高，市场尚未交易煤炭利 差 2025.5.22 分析师： 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liuguijun@sxzq.com 投资要点： 月度供需数据： 供给：1-4 月原煤供给增速边际放缓。2025 年 1-4 月，原煤累计产量实 现 15.85 亿吨，同比增 6.6%，同比增速边际下滑。4 月当月实现 3.89 亿吨， 同比增 3.8%，增速较上月大幅下降。 相关报告： 需求：1-4 月终端需求受基建支撑，非电走势强于电力。25 年 1-4 月固 定资产投资同比增 4.0%，较 24 年同期下降 0.2 个百分点，其中制造业投资 增 8.8%（较去年同期减少 0 ...

通信终端及配件 移远通信（603236.SH） 增持-A(维持) 公司近一年市场表现 | 市场数据：2025 年 | 5 月 | 23 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | | | 71.75 | | 总股本（亿股）： | | | 2.62 | | 流通股本（亿股）： | | | 2.62 | | 流通市值（亿元）： | | | 187.74 | 高宇洋 执业登记编码：S0760523050002 邮箱：gaoyuyang@sxzq.com 张天 执业登记编码：S0760523120001 邮箱：zhangtian@sxzq.com 赵天宇 执业登记编码：S0760524060001 邮箱：zhaotianyu@sxzq.com 模组出货量稳居龙头地位，AI 模组和解决方案广泛布局 2025 年 5 月 26 日 公司研究/公司快报 事件描述： | 基础数据：2025 年 3 月 | 31 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元）： | | 16.15 | | 每股资本公积（元）： | | 7.75 | | 每股未分配利润（元） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [4][10] Core Views - MINISO's domestic same-store sales are showing improvement, and direct store revenue is growing rapidly. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, while adjusted net profit was 588 million yuan, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year [4][6][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 23, 2025, the closing price was HKD 42.25, with a year-to-date high of HKD 55.00 and a low of HKD 20.00. The total market capitalization was HKD 52.869 billion [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, up 18.9% year-on-year, with an average store count increase of 16.5% [6]. The adjusted net profit was 588 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales and distribution expenses [6][8]. Business Segments - Domestic revenue for MINISO China in Q1 2025 was 2.494 billion yuan, a 9.1% increase year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached 1.592 billion yuan, a 30.3% increase year-on-year. The average store count in overseas markets grew by 24.6% [7][10]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The sales and distribution expense ratio rose to 23.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, due to direct investments in overseas stores [8][10]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts revenues of 20.971 billion yuan, 25.331 billion yuan, and 30.011 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.862 billion yuan, 3.482 billion yuan, and 4.119 billion yuan [10][12]. The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.0, 13.9, and 11.8, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [2] Core Insights - MINISO's domestic same-store sales are showing improvement, and direct store revenue is growing rapidly. The company achieved a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, although adjusted net profit decreased by 4.8% [5][7][11] - The company is focusing on optimizing low-efficiency stores while emphasizing the establishment of flagship stores and IP Land stores to enhance brand strength [8] - The overseas market continues to expand rapidly, with a revenue of 1.592 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.3% [8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, MINISO's revenue growth exceeded market expectations, driven by a 16.5% year-on-year increase in average store count. The adjusted net profit was 588 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year due to rising sales and distribution expenses [7][9] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin overseas direct sales and an optimized product mix [9] - The sales and distribution expense ratio increased to 23.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to direct investments in overseas stores [9] Future Outlook - For the years 2025 to 2027, the projected revenues are 20.971 billion yuan, 25.331 billion yuan, and 30.011 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.862 billion yuan, 3.482 billion yuan, and 4.119 billion yuan [11][13] - The report anticipates a continued recovery in domestic same-store sales and improvement in sales performance, particularly in overseas markets like Mexico and the United States [11]

公司近一年市场表现 | 年 市场数据：2025 | 月 5 | 日 23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | | | 71.75 | | 总股本（亿股）： | | | 2.62 | | 流通股本（亿股）： | | | 2.62 | | 流通市值（亿元）： | | | 187.74 | | 基础数据：2025 年 3 月 | 31 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元）： | | 16.15 | | 每股资本公积（元）： | | 7.75 | | 每股未分配利润（元）： | | 7.17 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | 通信终端及配件 移远通信（603236.SH） 增持-A(维持) 2025 年 5 月 26 日 公司研究/公司快报 事件描述： 公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 一季度报告。2024 年，公司实现营收 185.94 亿元，同比+34.14%；实现归母净利润 5.88 亿元，同比+548.49%。2025Q1， 公司实现营收 52.21 亿元，同比+32.05%；实现归母净利润 2.12 亿元，同比 +2 ...

固定收益 4 月固定收益月报 外部冲击超预期，利率有望下行 2025 年 5 月 26 日 固定收益研究/定期报告 震荡调整结束，债市仍有上涨空间-3 月 固定收益月报 2025.4.7 资金面边际转松，利率有望修复下行-2 月固定收益月报 2025.3.7 中短端修复可期，长端待政策指引-1 月 固定收益月报 2025.2.11 王冠军 执业登记编码：S0760524040001 邮箱：wangguanjun@sxzq.com 王纯 邮箱：wangchun1@sxzq.com 投资要点： 相关报告： 观点展望 4 月初，特朗普政府的关税政策大超市场预期，债市收益率再次冲击前低。 虽然后续特朗普政府在关税政策方面有让步的迹象，但中国面临的外部不 确定性仍然较大，反应在债市上体现为市场利率低位震荡。 山证固定收益团队 分析师： 从国内政策面上看，4 月 25 日中央政治局召开分析研究当前经济形式和经 济工作的会议，会议强调"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，同时指出 将在未来择机降准降息，保持流动性充裕，加力支持实体经济。从政策取 向上来看，货币政策将继续维持宽松，以配合支持创新、扩大消费等政策。 从资金面上看 ...

研究早观点 2025 年 5 月 26 日 星期一 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,348.37 | -0.94 | | 深证成指 | 10,132.41 | -0.85 | | 沪深 300 | 3,882.27 | -0.81 | | 中小板指 | 6,376.77 | -0.42 | | 创业板指 | 2,021.50 | -1.18 | | 科创 50 | 980.58 | -1.02 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 市场走势 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：周跟踪（20250512-20250518）-——中美互降对等 关税，自主可控是长期形势 【行业评论】煤炭：煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 3 月进口负增，进口煤 种结构变化 【公司评论】威孚高科(000581.SZ)：威孚高科 24 年报&25Q1 季报点 评-利润短期承压，加速构建智能电动与工业领域新生态 【 ...

通信 周跟踪（20250512-20250518） 领先大市-A(维持) ——中美互降对等关税，自主可控是长期形势 2025 年 5 月 23 日 行业研究/行业周报 1）中美贸易谈判取得阶段成效，中美互降对等关税利好光模块、铜连接等 出口链。 资料来源：最闻 【山证通信】山西证券通信行业周 【山证通信】北美 CSP 资本开支展 5 月 12 日，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，美方取消了共 计 91%的加征关税，中方也相应取消了 91%的反制关税。并且美方 90 天内暂停 实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停 24%反制关税。在 90 天缓和期内，中 美关税水平已回到特朗普"解放日"前，市场认为这一谈判成果是超预期的，利 好消费电子、AI 算力、家电等出口板块。我们认为光模块、铜连接业绩好，估值 低，叠加机构持仓向主力指数成分千亿，有望迎来修复慢牛行情。此次关税政策 波动前所未有，但也体现出国内光模块企业的竞争力（关税发布后没多久就释放 出豁免政策）以及供应链韧性（国内海外双布局）。未来中美科技博弈的胜负手 还是在 AI，因此算力投资将持续较长时间，光模块（单芯片 IO 带宽持续增加）、 ...