证,通 煤炭 行业周报（20241111-20241117） 领先大市-A(维持) 指数回调煤炭红利价值有望回归 2024 年 11 月 18 日 行业研究/行业周报 煤炭行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 动态数据跟踪 动力煤：供需弱势稳定，动煤港口价窄幅震荡。煤矿正常生产，迎峰度 冬保供发力，坑口产销均衡。需求方面，本周气温回升，终端煤电负荷有所 下降，暖冬预期下，下游电厂采购一般；非电端虽有宏观利好影响，开工率 维持较高水平，但临近季节性淡季，煤炭补库需求不振；港口受预期转弱影 响，煤价小幅回调；北方港口煤炭调入大于调出，港口库存继续增加。展望 后期，四季度后期重要会议期间预计稳经济政策将继续发力，叠加后期供暖 需求实质性增加，预计供暖用煤及非电用煤需求仍有增长空间；同时，国际 煤价也有所上涨，进口煤价差不高，进口煤增量预期仍存变数，预计国内动 力煤价格回落空间不大。截至 11 月 15 日，环渤海动力煤现货参考价 848 元 /吨，周变化-0.47%；广州港山西优混 930 元/吨，周持平；欧洲三港 Q6000 动力煤折人民币 887.37 元/吨，周变化+3.22%。11 月秦皇岛动力煤长协价 699 元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the electronic industry, indicating an expected price increase exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [2][76]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI is driving a new wave of innovation in consumer electronics, with major smart devices like smartphones and PCs rapidly integrating AI capabilities. This trend is expected to create opportunities for component suppliers with strong technological capabilities [5][76]. - The report notes a tightening supply of advanced process nodes (7nm and below) from major manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung, suggesting a long-term trend towards self-sufficiency in advanced manufacturing equipment and processes for domestic companies [5][76]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic replacements for equipment, materials, and components, as well as the demand for high-performance chips driven by AI technology [5][76]. Market Overview 1. Market Performance - The overall market experienced a decline during the week of November 11-15, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.52%, Shenzhen Component Index down 3.70%, and the ChiNext Index down 3.36%. The semiconductor sector saw a more significant drop, with the Wind Semiconductor Index down 4.99% [19][20]. 2. Sector Performance - Among the sub-sectors, semiconductor materials had the smallest decline at -0.64%, while consumer electronics and integrated circuit packaging and testing fell by -2.01% and -2.63%, respectively [21][22]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - The top five gainers included Heertai (+51.09%), Youyan New Materials (+42.61%), Shisheng Intelligent (+35.94%), *ST Meixun (+23.30%), and Fuliwang (+21.68%). Conversely, the largest decliners were Landai Technology (-33.09%), Huaying Technology (-31.27%), Guangzhi Technology (-21.45%), Gree Precision (-20.08%), and Bodao Shares (-18.67%) [31][32]. Data Tracking - The report cites a 6% year-on-year increase in global silicon wafer shipments in Q3 2024, reaching 3,214 million square inches, indicating a continued upward trend since Q2 2024 [69][71]. - The AI PC market share rose to 20% in Q3 2024, with shipments reaching 13.3 million units, reflecting a 49% increase [71]. Industry News - Samsung has responded to rumors about pausing supply of 7nm and below process nodes, stating it cannot comment on customer-related matters [69]. - Baidu launched its first AI glasses, which are expected to be available in the first half of 2025, showcasing advancements in AI hardware [69]. - TSMC is currently prohibited from producing 2nm chips outside Taiwan, which may impact its future production plans [69].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "B" for the new materials sector, indicating a leading position in the market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the introduction of the "Shanghai Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of New Materials Industry (2025-2027)", which focuses on building a bio-manufacturing innovation hub and supports the development of synthetic biological materials to replace traditional chemical materials. The domestic bio-manufacturing market is expected to approach 2 trillion yuan by 2033, with a CAGR of 16.6% from 2023 to 2033 [2]. - The new materials sector has experienced a decline, with the new materials index falling by 3.98%, underperforming the ChiNext index by 0.62%. The synthetic biology index decreased by 3.16%, while semiconductor materials increased by 2.44% [3][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Secondary Market Performance - The new materials sector and basic chemicals both saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.52% and the ChiNext Index by 3.36% during the week [24]. 2. Industry Chain Data Tracking 2.1 Amino Acids - Valine price increased to 13,300 yuan/ton, up by 4.72% [5]. 2.2 Degradable Plastics - Prices for PLA injection grade decreased by 1.06% to 18,600 yuan/ton, while PBAT remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton [1]. 2.3 Industrial Gases - UPSSS grade hydrofluoric acid price remained stable at 11,000 yuan/ton [5]. 2.4 Electronic Chemicals - The report does not provide specific price changes for electronic chemicals [11]. 2.5 Vitamins - Vitamin A price increased by 7.33% to 161,000 yuan/ton, while Vitamin D3 remained unchanged at 260,000 yuan/ton [1]. 2.6 High-Performance Fibers - The report does not provide specific price changes for high-performance fibers [11]. 2.7 Important Basic Chemicals - The report does not provide specific price changes for important basic chemicals [11]. 3. Industry News - The report mentions the release of multiple policies supporting the development of synthetic biology, emphasizing the importance of this sector in the future [2]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on platform-type leading companies in the synthetic biology industry, such as Huaheng Biological, Kaisa Biological, and Lanxiao Technology [2].

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry maintains an investment rating of "A" [3]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience with a notable increase in exports, with October exports growing by 11.9% year-on-year. Major companies like PUMA and Deckers have raised their revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2025, indicating positive growth trends [1][4]. - The manufacturing segment is a key driver of revenue growth, with a reported revenue of $4.136 billion for Q1-Q3 2024, reflecting a 9.0% year-on-year increase. The footwear shipment volume increased by 16.2%, although the average selling price decreased by 6.8% to $20.24 [1][3][4]. - The retail segment, however, faced challenges, with revenues declining by 11.6% to $1.940 billion, although net profit increased by 8.0% to $29.8 million [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 3.38% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's drop of 3.29% during the week [7][46]. - The manufacturing segment's PE ratio stands at 19.74, while the apparel segment's PE is at 16.51, indicating varying levels of market valuation [53][54]. Company Performance - Yu Yuan Group reported a revenue of $6.075 billion for the first nine months of 2024, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, with a significant profit increase of 140.9% [3][41]. - The company has adjusted its footwear shipment guidance upwards, expecting a growth rate of around 16% for the full year [4][43]. Industry Trends - Asics reported a 17.3% increase in sales for the first nine months of 2024, with the Greater China region seeing a 27.5% growth, prompting an upward revision of its annual performance expectations [4][80]. - The recent Double Eleven shopping festival saw significant growth in sales, with Tmall reporting a 46.5% increase in transaction volume, indicating strong consumer demand [6][8]. Employment and Production - The manufacturing workforce increased by approximately 19,200 employees, with a total of 282,000 employees as of Q3 2024, reflecting a 7.5% year-on-year growth in the manufacturing segment [2][43]. - The production capacity utilization rate improved to 92%, up by 16 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a 1.6 percentage point increase in gross margin to 19.6% [1][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the solar industry, including 福莱特 (601865.SH), 隆基绿能 (601012.SH), 爱旭股份 (600732.SH), 阿特斯 (688472.SH), 阳光电源 (300274.SZ), and 德业股份 (605117.SH) [2] Core Insights - The solar power generation in October 2024 reached 323 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.6%, with the production of solar cells at 66.45 GW, up 13.2% year-on-year [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to establish 200 key industrial product carbon footprint accounting standards by 2027 to promote green and low-carbon transformation in the industry [2] - The average price of multi-crystalline silicon remains stable at 40.0 CNY/kg, while the average price of mono-crystalline silicon wafers has seen slight increases due to supply constraints [3][8] - The export tax rebate for certain solar products has been reduced from 13% to 9%, effective December 1, 2024, which may impact pricing strategies [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In October 2024, the solar power generation increased by 12.6% year-on-year, while the production of solar cells for the first ten months of the year grew by 15.5% [1] Price Trends - Multi-crystalline silicon prices are stable, while mono-crystalline silicon wafer prices have shown slight increases due to supply constraints [3][8] - The average price for M10 solar cells is 0.275 CNY/W, with expectations for price increases in certain models due to low inventory levels [8] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working on carbon footprint accounting standards to support the industry's transition to a low-carbon economy [2] - The National Energy Administration has issued guidelines to ensure fair treatment of various electricity sales entities, promoting a competitive market environment [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in the solar glass segment, new technology directions, and energy storage leaders, highlighting 福莱特, 隆基绿能, 爱旭股份, 阿特斯, 阳光电源, and 德业股份 as key players [10]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the companies discussed [1]. Core Insights - The new stock market activity has decreased, with the issuance price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the dual innovation board increasing in November compared to October [1][14]. - In November, there were no new stocks listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board or the Growth Enterprise Market, while the main board saw the listing of Jian Er Kang [1][28]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the number of stocks with positive weekly returns, with only 6 out of 37 stocks (16.22%) showing positive growth, down from 87.18% in the previous period [1][14]. Summary by Sections New Stock Market Activity - The new stock market has seen a decline in activity, with 301 new stocks listed since the beginning of 2023, raising a total of 382.39 billion yuan [1][14]. - The issuance PE for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in November was 95.70 times, up from 19.87 times in October, indicating a rising valuation trend [20]. - The Growth Enterprise Market's issuance PE increased to 19.06 times in November from 15.44 times in October, while the main board's issuance PE decreased to 10.62 times from 14.59 times [24][32]. Key Newly Listed Stocks - Notable newly listed stocks include Longtu Guangzhao (semiconductor mask), Kema Technology (ceramic heater), and Jian Er Kang (medical consumables) [59]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring stocks like Lianyun Technology and Jiachih Technology, which are awaiting listing approval [44][52]. Upcoming IPOs - Lianyun Technology plans to raise 1.612 billion yuan, with projected revenues for 2024 between 1.11 billion and 1.21 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.38% to 17.05% [45]. - Jiachih Technology aims to raise 1.332 billion yuan, with expected revenues for 2024 between 1.02 billion and 1.15 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 3.99% to 17.25% [52]. Market Trends - The report notes that the Wind near-term new stock index valuation has increased compared to the Growth Enterprise Market, indicating a premium status [36]. - The report also highlights the competitive landscape in the SSD controller chip market, where Lianyun Technology ranks second globally with a market share of 22% [50]. Industry Insights - The demand for data storage chips is expected to grow significantly, driven by the expansion of the PC, server, and mobile phone markets, as well as advancements in 5G and AI technologies [47]. - The report discusses the increasing importance of stealth materials in military applications, with a projected growth in the market for electromagnetic compatibility materials due to their applications in consumer electronics and automotive sectors [56].

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry is rated as "In line with the market" [4] Core Insights - In October 2024, domestic retail sales (social zero) reached 4.54 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which exceeded market expectations [1] - The online retail sector continues to outperform the overall retail market, with a notable increase in sales during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [6][10] - The textile and apparel sector saw a year-on-year growth of 8.0% in October, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [3][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In October 2024, the retail sales growth rate improved by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, with significant growth in cosmetics and sports/entertainment products [4][10] - The online retail sales of physical goods grew by 8.3% year-on-year from January to October 2024, outperforming the overall retail growth [2][6] Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence index has shown a decline since the second quarter of 2024, with the latest figure at 85.7 in September, down 0.1 from the previous month [1] Sales Performance by Category - The retail sales of cosmetics increased by 40.1% year-on-year in October, while the textile and apparel sector grew by 8.0% [3][10] - The sports and entertainment products category saw a year-on-year growth of 26.7% in October, indicating strong consumer demand [10] Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for companies with strong growth potential in the textile manufacturing sector, such as Huayi Group and Shenzhou International, due to their solid customer base and production advantages [10] - In the sports apparel segment, companies like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees are recommended for their robust retail performance and innovative product offerings [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market-A" for the machine tool equipment sector [1][2]. Core Insights - Revenue has returned to positive growth, with Q3 showing a recovery trend. The total revenue for the sample companies in Q1-Q3 2024 reached 20.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, while Q3 alone saw a revenue of 6.66 billion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year [1][2][13]. - Profitability is under pressure due to intensified market competition, declining product prices, and rising labor costs. The total net profit for the sample companies in Q1-Q3 2024 was 1.22 billion yuan, down 22.1% year-on-year, with Q3 net profit at 360 million yuan, down 10.4% year-on-year [1][2][16]. - The average gross margin for the sample companies in Q1-Q3 2024 was 24.1%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the average net margin was 6.0%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][2][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit Performance - The machine tool equipment sector's total revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 20.36 billion yuan, with Q3 revenue at 6.66 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% and 4.9% respectively. Among 17 companies, 11 reported revenue growth, with the top five growth rates from Kede CNC (30.3%), Genesis (17.6%), Zhejiang Haideman (16.9%), Ningbo Jingda (14.8%), and East China CNC (13.5%) [1][2][13]. - The total net profit for the sample companies in Q1-Q3 2024 was 1.22 billion yuan, down 22.1% year-on-year, with Q3 net profit at 360 million yuan, down 10.4% year-on-year. The top five companies by net profit were Haitan Precision (400 million yuan), Nuwei CNC (230 million yuan), Genesis (200 million yuan), Ningbo Jingda (120 million yuan), and Guosheng Zhike (100 million yuan) [1][2][16]. 2. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report highlights a significant increase in contract liabilities, with a total of 4.95 billion yuan as of Q3, down 2.3% year-on-year. Six companies reported year-on-year growth in contract liabilities, with East China CNC (44.9%), Huazhong CNC (41.9%), Genesis (31.1%), and Nuwei CNC (17.1%) leading the way [1][2][33]. - The government is encouraging a new round of large-scale equipment updates, which is expected to stimulate downstream customer demand. In July 2024, measures were introduced to support equipment updates with 150 billion yuan in special long-term bonds [1][2][37]. 3. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Kede CNC (688305.SH), Huazhong CNC (300161.SZ), and Nuwei CNC (688697.SH) as key investment opportunities. Other companies to watch include Qin Chuan Machine Tool (000837.SZ), Haitan Precision (601882.SH), Yuhuan CNC (002903.SZ), Ningbo Jingda (603088.SH), and others [2][47].

Economic Recovery Indicators - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[24] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.3% year-on-year from January to October, marking the first increase in recent times, with a 0.2 percentage point acceleration from the previous month[24] - Manufacturing investment rose by 9.3% year-on-year from January to October, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year[25] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for October increased by 5.3% year-on-year, showing a slight slowdown in growth[25] - The production-sales rate for industrial products reached 97.3%, up by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, the second-highest level this year[26] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.4% year-on-year in October, with significant increases in the production of integrated circuits and industrial robots, at 11.8% and 33.4% respectively[26] Real Estate Sector Insights - The sales area of new commercial housing decreased at a slower rate, with a decline reduction of 1.3 percentage points from January to October compared to the first nine months[30] - The price index for new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 6.2% year-on-year in October, with the decline slightly widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[30] - Real estate development investment fell by 10.3% year-on-year from January to October, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[30] Policy Impact and Risks - The implementation of "two new" and "two heavy" policies has positively impacted consumption and investment growth since October[24] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, persistent weak consumer confidence, and insufficient counter-cyclical policy strength[21]

总市值（亿）： 511.19 2024 年 11 月 16 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 太阳能 阿特斯（688472.SH） 买入-A(维持) Q3 盈利环比持续增长，储能单季度量利创新高 事件描述 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季度报告，前三季度公司实现营收 341.8 亿元， 同比-12.6%；实现归母净利润 19.5 亿元，同比-31.2%。其中，Q3 实现营收 122.2 亿元，同比-6.1%，环比-1.1%；实现归母净利润 7.2 亿元，同比-22.0%， 环比+8.3%。 事件点评 储能业务 Q3 量利新高，在手订单充足。2024 年前三季度，公司实现储 市场数据：2024 年 11 月 14 日 能产品销售 4.4GWh；其中 Q3 出货 1.8GWh，出货量和单位净利均创单季度 收盘价（元）： 13.86 历史新高。展望四季度，在全年出货 6.5-7GWh 的预期下，Q4 出货量有望环 年内最高/最低（元）： 16.69/8.84 比持续增长。2024 年，公司大储产品主要销往中国市场及海外美国、欧洲（英 流通A股/总股本（亿）： 13.82/36.88 国）、澳洲等市场。截至 ...