资料来源：最闻 研究早观点 2024 年 9 月 11 日 星期三 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【山证通信】天孚通信（300394.SZ）：高速光模块无源和有源需求均 保持强劲，期待 1.6T 新产品上量 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------| | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,744.19 | 0.28 | | 深证成指 | 8,073.83 | 0.13 | | 沪深 300 | 3,195.76 | 0.09 | | 中小板指 | 5,219.49 | 0.40 | | 创业板指 | 1,539.98 | 0.06 | | 科创 50 | 660.01 | 0.78 | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证宏观】2024 年 8 月物价点评：PPI 跌幅扩大 【行业评论】通信：山西证券通信行业周观点：AI 的预期是否发生了 调整？建议关注超跌反弹机会 【山证通信】中际旭创（300308.SZ ...

证券研究报告 通信 周跟踪（20240902-20240906） 领先大市-A(维持) AI 的预期是否发生了调整？建议关注超跌反弹机会 2024 年 9 月 10 日 行业研究/行业周报 通信行业近一年市场表现 相关报告： 1）我们认为英伟达 2025 年业绩预期仍然强劲。在同环比基数扩大以及 Hopper 向 Blackwell 过渡阶段可能短暂出现季度环比增速下滑。目前英伟达保持一年一代新 品的迭代速度，供应链需要新工艺、新产品产能爬坡过程，下游客户需求的产品结 构也会随之调整。英伟达表示，"Hopper"的需求依然强劲，人们对 Blackwell 芯片 的期待也难以置信。 环比高增，再论 AI 的主线和支线-周跟 踪（20240826-20240901） 2024.9.4 【山证通信】——英伟达财报继续 入网流量新预期，同时建议关注 AIDC 和 DCI-周跟踪（20240819-20240825） 2024.8.26 【山证通信】《黑神话悟空》带来接 2）GB200 的量产时间略有延迟但并不影响明年预期，短期市场回调创造了极 佳的超跌修复机会。英伟达在业绩会上表示，已完成对 Blackwell 掩膜 ...

Price Trends - August CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value of 0.5% but below the expected 0.7%[1] - August PPI decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, worse than the previous -0.8% and the expected -1.4%[1] - August CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, stronger than seasonal trends, while PPI decreased by 0.7%, significantly weaker than seasonal expectations[1] Food and Non-Food Prices - Food prices rose by 3.4% month-on-month, driven by high temperatures and heavy rainfall affecting fresh vegetables and fruits[1] - Pork prices increased by 7.3% month-on-month due to reduced supply and strong bullish expectations[1] - Non-food prices saw a 3.0% decrease in gasoline prices, influenced by international oil price fluctuations[1] Industrial Price Dynamics - Production materials decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, significantly weaker than seasonal trends, with notable declines in oil extraction and processing prices[1] - The black and non-ferrous metal industries experienced substantial month-on-month price drops due to sluggish domestic real estate and infrastructure investment[1] - Some technology-intensive sectors saw price increases, with aircraft manufacturing prices up by 2.1% and industrial robot manufacturing prices up by 0.8%[1] Future Outlook - Short-term international commodity prices are expected to remain volatile, with a low probability of industrial product prices turning positive within the year[1] - The core consumer price index (CPI) and service CPI continue to show signs of slowing down, indicating a broader trend of price stabilization[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [2][6] Core Viewpoints - The company's passive and active optical components are experiencing strong demand, driven by the global AI boom and increasing computing power needs [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the high-speed optical module market, with a focus on customized, high-quality passive components and optical engine business [6] - The company's revenue and net profit have shown significant year-over-year growth, with H1 2024 revenue reaching 1.56 billion yuan (+134.3% YoY) and net profit reaching 650 million yuan (+177.2% YoY) [3] Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 73.90 yuan on September 9, 2024, with a yearly high/low of 173.99/68.59 yuan [1] - The company's market capitalization stands at 40.93 billion yuan, with a circulating A-share market cap of 40.85 billion yuan [1] - Basic EPS is 1.18 yuan, with a diluted EPS of 1.18 yuan and a net asset per share of 6.76 yuan [1] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was 1.56 billion yuan (+134.3% YoY), with net profit of 650 million yuan (+177.2% YoY) [3] - Q2 2024 revenue was 820 million yuan (+12.7% QoQ), with net profit of 380 million yuan (+34.6% QoQ) [3] - The company's passive and active optical components generated revenues of 700 million yuan (+63.4% YoY) and 820 million yuan (+267.4% YoY) respectively in H1 2024 [4] Product and Technology Development - The company is focusing on the development of high-speed optical modules, with a particular emphasis on 1.6T products, which are expected to drive future growth [5] - The company's passive components, such as Fiber Array, AWG, and silicon lenses, are highly customized and have high precision, reliability, and consistency [1] - The company is expanding production capacity for passive components supporting high-speed and silicon photonics, with expectations of continued growth in H2 2024 [1] Customer and Market Trends - The company's major customer, Fabrinet, has seen strong growth in data communication revenue, with 800G and above products accounting for 34.4% of revenue in Q2 2024 [5] - Fabrinet expects continued strong demand for 800G products in H2 2024, with potential for 1.6T product shipments following customer demand [5] - The company's inventory of raw materials increased by 64.3% compared to the beginning of the year, indicating preparation for future production needs [5] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 3.81 billion yuan in 2024E to 8.18 billion yuan in 2026E, with net profit expected to increase from 1.52 billion yuan to 3.14 billion yuan over the same period [6][8] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, with 2024E-2026E projections of 55.1%, 52.0%, and 51.9% respectively [8] - EPS is forecasted to grow from 2.74 yuan in 2024E to 5.68 yuan in 2026E, with ROE expected to peak at 39.4% in 2025E [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with partial production lines in Thailand already operational and a 46.67% stake acquisition in Tianfu Star [5] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with significant R&D investments in specialized Fiber Array devices, silicon photonics components, and high-power laser products [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [1][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 169.7% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2024, reaching 10.8 billion yuan, and a 284.3% increase in net profit, amounting to 2.36 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company's gross margin improved to 33.49% in Q2 2024, driven by an increase in the proportion of high-speed products and contributions from overseas AI clients [1][4]. - The company is positioned as a leading supplier of high-speed optical modules, benefiting from the growing demand in the AI infrastructure market, particularly in North America [3][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a net profit margin of 22.3%, with total expenses as a percentage of revenue at 8.5%, reflecting effective cost management [1][6]. - The company’s revenue and net profit projections for 2024-2026 are optimistic, with expected net profits of 5.32 billion yuan in 2024, 9.63 billion yuan in 2025, and 11.31 billion yuan in 2026 [7][5]. - The company’s asset turnover ratio improved, indicating enhanced capacity utilization and product value [6]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is recognized as a top global supplier of optical modules, particularly in the 400G and 800G segments, with significant market share in AI-related infrastructure investments [3][7]. - The AI market for optical modules is projected to exceed 4 billion USD in 2024, with continued growth expected through 2029, positioning the company to capitalize on this trend [3][5]. - The company’s subsidiaries, including Junge Electronics and Chuhan Technology, have also reported strong revenue growth, contributing positively to the overall performance [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [1][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 169.7% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2024, reaching 10.8 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 284.3% to 2.36 billion yuan [2][7]. - The company's gross margin improved to 33.49% in Q2 2024, driven by a higher proportion of high-speed products and increased revenue from overseas AI clients [1][4]. - The company is positioned as a leading supplier of high-speed optical modules, benefiting from the growing demand in the AI infrastructure market, particularly in North America [3][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a net profit margin of 22.3%, with total expenses accounting for 8.5% of revenue, a decrease from the previous year [1][4]. - The company’s revenue and net profit projections for 2024-2026 are 53.2 billion, 96.3 billion, and 113.1 billion yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth expectations [7]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to reach 27.2% in 2024, indicating robust profitability [5][10]. Market Position - The company is recognized as the best deliverer of high-speed optical modules globally, with a strong market presence in the 400GbE and 800GbE segments [1][3]. - The AI market for optical modules is expected to exceed 4 billion USD in 2024, with the company poised to capture significant market share due to its early entry into the 800G product offerings [3][7]. Production and Capacity - The company has increased its production capacity, with a production of 9 million optical communication modules in the first half of 2024, an 81% increase year-on-year [6]. - The inventory value rose to 6.17 billion yuan, reflecting strong demand and preparation for future orders [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [2]. Core Insights - The company has benefited from the ongoing promotion of domestic innovation, leading to significant growth in revenue and performance in the first half of 2024. Revenue reached 352 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 103 million yuan, up 40.68% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 97.16%, an increase of 1.41% year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of high-margin software product licensing revenue [2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic database sector, with expectations to benefit from the continued push for domestic innovation in government and industry sectors [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a net profit margin of 28.61%, an increase of 3.47% compared to the same period last year [2]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 953 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.0%, and net profit is expected to reach 359 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 21.1% [3][4]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 4.72 yuan, 5.77 yuan, and 7.04 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 50.48, 41.28, and 33.84 [2][3]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has established a strong presence in various sectors, including government, energy, and finance, with over 220 financial clients and more than 2000 deployed financial business systems [2][3]. - The competitive landscape includes major players such as Oracle and Microsoft, as well as domestic competitors like Renmin University and General Data. The company must navigate these competitive pressures to maintain its market position [3].

研究早观点 2024 年 9 月 10 日 星期二 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【行业评论】电子：山西证券电子行业周跟踪-全球智能手机市场景气 复苏， 国内市场主要指数 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------| | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,736.49 | -1.06 | | 深证成指 | 8,063.27 | -0.83 | | 沪深 300 | 3,192.95 | -1.19 | | 中小板指 | 5,198.48 | -0.89 | | 创业板指 | 1,539.04 | 0.06 | | 科创 50 | 654.94 | -1.12 | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【山证新材料】斯迪克 2024 年中报点评——新项目投产推动营收高增 长，业绩拐点可期 【今日要点】 【山证煤炭】行业周报（20240902-20240908）：-中下游港口库存回落， 煤价窄幅震荡 【行业评论】化学原料：新材料周报（ ...

6u 证券研究报告 新材料 新材料周报（240902-0906） 领先大市-B(维持) 苏晋出台"两高"管理目录，江苏印发首批新材料应用示范指导目录 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

山证,通 2024 年 9 月 9 日 行业研究/行业周报 煤炭行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 动态数据跟踪 动力煤：调入小于调出，中下游港口库存回落。受安监检查及北方降雨 影响减弱，部分露天矿生产及外运受限，煤炭产地发运一般。需求方面，上 周季节性降温明显，加之台风影响，沿海电煤负荷回落，但水电、新能源季 节性回落，叠加化工等非电开工好转，煤炭需求整体平稳，市场交投氛围尚 可，煤炭价格小幅波动；产地供给减少，北方港口调入小于调出，中下游港 口去库明显。展望后期，稳经济政策仍有空间，预计工业用电及非电用煤需 求仍有增长空间；同时，国际煤价高位，进口煤价差不高，后期进口煤增量 预期仍存变数，预计国内动力煤价格企稳。截至 9 月 6 日，广州港山西优混 Q5500 库提价 920 元/吨，周持平；环渤海动力煤现货参考价 844 元/吨，周 持平；欧洲三港 Q6000 动力煤折人民币 788.4 元/吨，周变化-5.73%；印度 东海岸 5500 动力煤折人民币 741.19 元/吨，周变化+0.43%。9 月秦皇岛动 力煤长协价 697 元/吨，环比上月降低 2 元/吨。9 月 6 日，北方港口合计煤 炭库存 21 ...