A股市场走势综述 - On September 2, the A-share market experienced a slight fluctuation after hitting resistance, with the Shanghai Composite Index encountering resistance around 2839 points during the day [1][2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2811.04 points, down 1.10%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8172.21 points, down 2.11% [5][6] - The trading volume for the two markets was 708.5 billion yuan, which is below the median of the average daily trading volume over the past three years [2][10] 行业表现 - The banking, insurance, coal, and engineering machinery sectors performed well, while the securities, liquor, consumer electronics, and semiconductor sectors showed weaker performance [2][5] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets declined, with coal and banking sectors leading in gains, while semiconductor and liquor sectors faced significant losses [5][8] 后市研判及投资建议 - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 12.16 times and 26.34 times, respectively, both below the median levels of the past three years, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][10] - The report suggests that investors should focus on short-term investment opportunities in the banking, coal, engineering machinery, and public utility sectors [2][10]

资料来源：Wind,中原证券 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 -25% -21% -18% -14% -11% -7% -4% 0% 2023.09 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 上证指数 深证成指 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 2,811.03 | -1.10 | | 深证成指 | 8,172.21 | -2.11 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,265.01 | -1.70 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,139.09 | -1.78 | ...

Investment Ratings - The lithium battery sector is recommended for short-term investment opportunities due to its recent performance, with an index increase of 5.33% [1] - The new materials sector shows strong performance, with an index increase of 4.59%, suggesting a favorable investment outlook [1] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the benchmark index by 1.69 percentage points, indicating potential investment opportunities [16] Core Insights - The lithium battery index outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - The new materials sector is experiencing growth driven by domestic manufacturing upgrades and increasing demand for high-performance materials [1] - The medicinal sector has shown resilience with a 1.97% increase, suggesting potential for investment in companies with strong mid-year performance [18] Summary by Sector Lithium Battery - The lithium battery index increased by 5.33%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [1] - The sector is encouraged by macro policies supporting the development of the new energy vehicle industry [10] New Materials - The new materials index rose by 4.59%, significantly outperforming the benchmark index [11] - Key sub-sectors such as organic silicon and lithium battery chemicals showed strong growth [11] Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The sector index increased by 1.52%, outperforming the benchmark index by 1.69 percentage points [16] - Recommendations include focusing on the recovering pig farming sector and the rapidly growing pet food market [16] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing index rose by 3.30%, ranking fourth among 30 sectors [15] - Investment suggestions include companies with integrated advantages in pulp and paper production [15] Medicinal - The medicinal sector index increased by 1.97%, with notable performances in medical services and medical devices [18] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested for companies with better-than-expected mid-year results [18] Securities - The securities sector showed signs of recovery with a 2.18% increase, indicating potential for further improvement if market activity remains stable [19] Machinery - The machinery sector index rose by 2.07%, with significant gains in sub-sectors like boiler equipment and forklifts [20] - Long-term recommendations focus on sectors benefiting from large-scale equipment updates [20] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector increased by 5.43%, with a significant trading volume indicating strong market interest [22] - Long-term focus on leading companies in the photovoltaic supply chain is recommended due to their resilience [22]

Lithium Battery - The lithium battery index increased by 5.33%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1] - Short-term investment opportunities in the sector are recommended due to industry prosperity and price trends [1] New Materials - The new materials index rose by 4.59%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index which declined by 0.17% [9] - All major sub-sectors except for the membrane sector showed varying degrees of increase, driven by domestic manufacturing upgrades and demand for high-performance materials [9] - Focus on semiconductor materials with low domestic replacement rates and high technical difficulty is advised [9] Nonferrous Metals - The nonferrous metals index increased by 0.93%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.17% [10] - Lithium (6.13%), other rare metals (5.34%), and nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony (4.83%) were among the best-performing sub-sectors [10] - Investment opportunities in aluminum and small metal sectors are suggested due to weak metal prices and geopolitical factors [10] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The index for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery rose by 1.52%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.69 percentage points [14] - All sub-sectors showed varying degrees of increase, with a focus on the pig farming sector and rapidly growing pet food market [14] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 3.30%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [12] - All sub-sectors showed growth, with particular attention to the paper and home furnishing sectors due to seasonal demand [12] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical index rose by 1.97%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.14 percentage points [16] - Investment opportunities in traditional Chinese medicine and innovative drugs are recommended for the medium to long term [16] Securities - The securities index showed a rebound, with a 2.18% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index [18] - If market activity remains relatively high, further recovery in the securities index is anticipated [18] Machinery - The machinery sector index increased by 2.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [19] - Focus on large-scale equipment updates and growth sectors such as semiconductor and 3C equipment is recommended [19] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector rose by 5.43%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [21] - Despite overcapacity and price declines affecting profitability, long-term focus on leading companies in the photovoltaic supply chain is advised [22]

投资要点： 分析师：李泽森 登记编码：S0730523080001 lizs1@ccnew.com 021-50586702 美联储近期表态偏鸽，市场有 望企稳回升 ——周度策略 证券研究报告-周度策略 发布日期：2024 年 08 月 31 日 相关报告 《周度策略：行业周观点》 2024-08-25 《周度策略：美联储降息预期增强，市场有望 企稳回升》 2024-08-24 《周度策略：稳增长预期增强，市场有望企稳 回升》 2024-08-18 联系人：马嶔琦 电话： 021-50586973 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号16 楼 邮编： 200122 ⚫ 【规模以上工业企业利润保持增长】1—7 月份，全国规模以上工 业企业实现利润总额 40991.7 亿元，同比增长 3.6%；从分项数 据来看，采矿业实现利润总额 7179.2 亿元，同比下降 9.5%；制 造业实现利润总额 29045.4 亿元，增长 5.0%；电力、热力、燃 气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额 4767.1 亿元，增长 20.1%。7 月份，规上工业企业利润同比增长 4.1%，增速比 6 月份加快 0.5 个百分点，连续两个月 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation remains stable, with expectations for a rebound in the market as macroeconomic policies are enhanced and growth stabilization measures are continuously implemented [5][20]. - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.1%, indicating a slight decline and remaining in the contraction zone for four consecutive months, suggesting that the manufacturing sector's vitality needs improvement [3][10]. - The PMI for large enterprises is at 50.4%, while medium and small enterprises are at 48.7% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating increasing operational pressure on smaller firms [3][10]. Manufacturing and Trade - The manufacturing PMI production sub-index is at 49.8%, continuing a downward trend for four months and indicating insufficient market demand [3][10]. - New export orders PMI improved slightly to 48.7%, but the export price index has decreased, suggesting that while export volumes may have improved, prices are under pressure [3][10]. - For the first seven months of 2024, China's total import and export value reached 24.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with exports growing by 6.7% and imports by 5.4% [12]. Consumer and Investment Trends - Social retail sales for the first seven months reached 273.726 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer spending [16]. - Fixed asset investment for the same period was 287.611 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%, with infrastructure investment increasing by 4.9% and manufacturing investment by 9.3% [17]. - Real estate investment, however, saw a decline of 10.2%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the property market [17]. Inflation and Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in July, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.8%, indicating mixed inflationary pressures [13][14]. - The CPI increase is attributed to rising prices in fresh vegetables and eggs due to supply constraints, while PPI reflects weakness in upstream raw material prices [13][14]. Financing and Monetary Policy - The total social financing stock reached 395.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, supported mainly by government and corporate bonds [20][21]. - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, which may support economic stabilization in the second half of the year [20].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a low opening followed by a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 2867 points before closing at 2842.21 points, up 0.68% [5][6] - The ChiNext Index showed significant gains, outperforming the main board, closing at 1580.46 points, up 2.53% [5][6] - The total trading volume for both markets reached 880.4 billion yuan, which is below the median of the past three years [2][11] Industry Performance - Key sectors that performed well included securities, insurance, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and automobiles, while banking, electricity, communication services, and gold sectors lagged [2][5] - Over 90% of stocks in the two markets rose, with real estate, gaming, and consumer electronics leading the gains [5][8] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 12.09 times and 25.72 times, respectively, both below the median levels of the past three years, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][11] - The report suggests that investors should focus on short-term opportunities in the financial, consumer electronics, automotive, and semiconductor sectors [2][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the electricity and utilities sector, suggesting a focus on companies in the hydropower and nuclear power segments that demonstrate stable performance and high dividend yields [5]. Core Insights - The electricity consumption in China continues to show high growth, with a 7.7% increase in total electricity consumption from January to July 2024. The highest growth rate was observed in the tertiary industry, which grew by 11.0% year-on-year [4][30]. - Hydropower generation has maintained a high growth rate, with a 36.2% year-on-year increase in July 2024. The share of hydropower generation in total electricity production has also increased significantly [36]. - The report highlights a decrease in coal production growth, with a 2.8% year-on-year increase in July 2024, which is a slowdown compared to previous months. Coal imports, however, increased by 17.7% year-on-year [42]. - Natural gas production showed stable growth, with a 7.9% year-on-year increase in July 2024. The report notes a slight decrease in international natural gas prices, while domestic prices have seen a small increase [46]. - The report indicates a significant drop in the inflow and outflow of water at the Three Gorges Dam, with both metrics declining compared to the same period in 2023 [49]. Summary by Sections Electricity Supply and Demand - Total electricity consumption in China reached 5.60 trillion kilowatt-hours from January to July 2024, with July alone contributing 939.6 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 5.7% year-on-year increase [30][32]. - The total installed capacity of electricity generation reached approximately 3.1 billion kilowatts by the end of July 2024, with solar power capacity growing by 49.8% year-on-year [40]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the State Council approved 11 nuclear power units, marking the highest number of approvals since 2019, indicating a push towards nuclear energy development [56]. - The electricity and utilities index experienced a decline of 4.76% in August 2024, slightly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [26]. Regional Insights - In Henan Province, total electricity consumption decreased by 2.57% in July 2024, while the cumulative consumption from January to July increased by 7.21% year-on-year [52]. - The installed capacity in Henan Province reached 14.413 million kilowatts, with wind and solar power accounting for 44.1% of the total installed capacity [54].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the solar industry but suggests a focus on leading companies in the sector due to current market conditions [4][10]. Core Insights - The solar industry experienced a decline of 4.71% in August, with individual stocks showing mixed performance, indicating a challenging market environment [7][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of building a new energy system and improving the output of renewable energy stations, as outlined in the "Action Plan for Accelerating the Construction of a New Power System (2024-2027)" [4][10]. - The report highlights that the solar industry is facing overcapacity and significant price declines, which have severely impacted profitability across the supply chain [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The solar index showed a downward trend in August, with a 4.71% decline, closely mirroring the performance of the CSI 300 index [7]. - Sub-sectors within the solar industry experienced widespread declines, with conductive silver paste and solar power stations being the only segments to show positive growth [8][10]. 2. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the acceleration of new energy system construction and the expansion of non-fossil energy applications, particularly wind and solar [10][12]. - In July, the newly installed solar capacity was 21.05 GW, a year-on-year increase of 12.33%, but the growth rate has slowed significantly compared to previous months [4][17]. - The report notes that the average price of polysilicon has slightly rebounded, indicating a potential stabilization in pricing [4][24]. 3. Key Company Announcements - Leading companies in the solar sector are adjusting their production rates and prices in response to market conditions, with notable price increases announced by major manufacturers [4][12]. - The report identifies specific companies that have performed well in the current market, such as *ST Zhongli and Shangneng Electric, while others have faced significant declines [10][11]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the solar supply chain, particularly those with strong resilience in the face of market challenges [4][10]. - It highlights the importance of monitoring developments in polysilicon, solar glass, and integrated component manufacturers as potential investment opportunities [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" investment rating for the electrical equipment sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The electrical equipment sector's performance in August was weaker than the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 6.22% compared to the index's drop of 4.78% [5][9]. - The manufacturing PMI for July was at 49.40%, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector, with production index slightly above the threshold at 50.1% [15][16]. - The demand for electrical equipment is expected to improve due to ongoing domestic grid investments and stable overseas demand for power infrastructure upgrades [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The electrical equipment index underperformed the CSI 300 index in August, with a decline of 6.22% [5][9]. - The sector's four sub-industries all experienced declines, with the smallest drop in distribution equipment [9]. Macroeconomic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July was 49.40%, indicating a slight decrease from the previous month [15]. - The overall industrial production maintained stability, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in the first seven months of 2024 [12]. Electrical Equipment - Total electricity consumption from January to July 2024 reached 5.60 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [19]. - Power generation from January to July was 5.32 trillion kWh, up 4.8% year-on-year, with a decrease in the share of thermal power [19][20]. - Investment in power generation and grid projects showed growth, with power generation investment at 415.8 billion yuan (up 2.6%) and grid investment at 294.7 billion yuan (up 19.2%) [27][28]. Industry Dynamics - Exports of electrical equipment remained strong, with transformers, wires and cables, and high-voltage switches showing year-on-year growth rates of 28.3%, 18.5%, and 26.9% respectively [32]. - The report highlights the ongoing demand for electrical equipment driven by infrastructure upgrades both domestically and internationally [4][32]. Investment Rating - The report reiterates the "Market Perform" rating, suggesting that the sector's valuation is at a historically low level and may recover as market sentiment improves [4][5].