证 券 研 告 行 研 究 2024 年 11 月 26 日 究 报 英伟达推出全新 CPU 和 GPU AI 处理器,IDEA 研究院发布通用视觉大模型 DINO-X —计算机行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|--------------------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - The company, Chenyi Intelligent (301578.SZ), has shown stable overall operations with cost reduction measures enhancing revenue quality. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 216 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.80%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.14 million yuan, a decline of 60.49% [1][4]. - The company is recognized as a rising player in the ODM smart remote control product sector, focusing on independent innovation and the development of UWB technology, which is expected to provide new growth points [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2009, the company specializes in the design, R&D, production, and sales of smart remote controls and products, providing comprehensive solutions for domestic and international clients. It has become one of the most competitive manufacturers in the smart remote control industry, with strong capabilities in software and hardware integration and product design innovation [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 19.00%, and the net margin was 4.24%. The increase in sales expenses was primarily due to travel and hospitality costs related to customer acquisition, while R&D expenses rose due to increased personnel salaries and operational costs [1]. - The company forecasts revenues of 905 million yuan, 1.471 billion yuan, and 1.978 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.17 yuan, 2.77 yuan, and 3.95 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 53, 23, and 16 times for the respective years [4][6]. Technology and Innovation - The company has developed a groundbreaking absolute pointing interaction technology based on UWB, achieving millimeter-level three-dimensional spatial positioning accuracy. This allows users to precisely control target devices without the need for sequential icon selection, significantly enhancing user experience [1][4].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the power equipment sector [1][7] Core Views - BC (Back Contact) technology is accelerating its industrialization, with its platform advantages becoming prominent. BC technology can be combined with various mainstream new technology paths such as PERC, TOPCon, and HJT to enhance efficiency. Currently, the focus is on the "TOPCon+BC" direction [1][16] - HJT (Heterojunction) technology is considered the optimal route for the US domestic photovoltaic market due to its short production process, low-temperature manufacturing, and strong low-carbon attributes [4][22] - New regulations for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry have been introduced, raising the construction threshold and increasing capital requirements for new and expanded projects [5][24] BC Technology - BC technology improves battery conversion efficiency through structural optimization and can be combined with other technologies like PERC, TOPCon, and HJT to form P-IBC, TBC, and HBC batteries [16] - Leading companies in BC technology include LONGi and Aiko Solar. LONGi's second-generation HPBC battery has achieved a mass production efficiency of 26.6%, with a planned BC capacity of 70GW by the end of 2025. Aiko Solar's ABC battery has an average mass production conversion efficiency of 27.2% [17] - Large state-owned enterprises have started setting up independent bidding sections for BC components, with LONGi, Tongwei, and Huayao Optoelectronics being the main bidders [18] - The cost of BC technology remains high, with equipment investment ranging from 3 to 4 billion yuan/GW, compared to 1.5 billion yuan/GW for TOPCon. Silver paste consumption is also higher for BC batteries [19] HJT Technology - HJT technology is gaining traction in the US market, with companies like Revkor, H2 Gemini, and Enel 3Sun planning to expand HJT production capacity [22] - HJT's advantages include a shorter production process, lower labor and maintenance costs, and a low-temperature manufacturing process that saves fuel. Additionally, HJT faces fewer patent issues compared to TOPCon in the US [22] Photovoltaic Manufacturing Regulations - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised the "Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Standard Conditions (2024 Edition)" and the "Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Standard Announcement Management Measures (2024 Edition)", raising the minimum capital ratio for new and expanded projects to 30% [24][25] - The new regulations also impose stricter energy and water consumption standards, which may limit the addition of new polysilicon production capacity [25] Market Performance - The power equipment sector fell by 1.66% last week, ranking 15th among 28 primary sub-sectors. The photovoltaic sector dropped by 4.31 percentage points [50] - Top gainers in the sector last week included Jiusheng Electric (+55.05%) and Weil Transmission (+41.23%), while the biggest losers included Kaifa Electric (-14.19%) and Zhenhua New Materials (-15.68%) [53]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [14][17]. Core Insights - The gold market is experiencing a rebound as bullish sentiment regains control over pricing, supported by a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [4][14]. - Copper and aluminum prices are supported by ongoing inventory reductions, although demand remains moderate [5][9]. - Tin prices are underpinned by tight raw material supplies, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak due to sluggish demand [11][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.4%, with silver, magnetic materials, and tungsten leading the gains, while aluminum, molybdenum, and cobalt faced declines [33]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In November, China's one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained at 3.1%, while the five-year LPR also held steady at 3.6% [41]. - U.S. economic indicators showed a decline in building permits and new housing starts, while the Markit Services PMI exceeded expectations, indicating a mixed economic outlook [41][42]. 3. Precious Metals Market Key Data - The report highlights the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the impact of ETF and futures positions on market stability, with a noted shift from short to long positions in the gold market [4][14]. 4. Industrial Metals Data - Copper prices are currently at $8,950 per ton, reflecting a 2.35% decrease, while aluminum prices are at 20,600 RMB per ton, down 1.39% [5][9]. - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum are being closely monitored, with LME and SHFE stocks showing varying trends [7][9]. 5. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report recommends maintaining a "Buy" rating across various metals, citing favorable supply-demand dynamics and potential price increases in the near term [14][17]. 6. Key Stock Recommendations - The report lists several companies as key investment opportunities, including Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Mining, highlighting their strong market positions and growth potential [18][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Guoguang Electric, Beifang Huachuang, and others [11][28]. Core Insights - The semiconductor sanctions from the US are expected to escalate, emphasizing the need for self-sufficiency in China's semiconductor industry. This situation is likely to impact around 200 Chinese chip companies, restricting their access to US suppliers [7][24]. - Huawei is set to launch a new router that incorporates "Star Flash" technology, enhancing smart home connectivity. This technology boasts a 50% increase in coverage compared to Bluetooth and supports up to 4096 devices [8][25]. - The launch of Rokid Glasses AR is anticipated to drive growth in the edge AI sector, featuring various AI capabilities and a lightweight design [9][26]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electronic industry experienced a decline of 3.29% from November 18 to November 22, ranking 27th among sectors. The overall market performance was weaker compared to the computer and defense industries, which had higher valuations [6][37]. Semiconductor Sanctions - The report highlights the imminent announcement of new export restrictions by the US government, which could further hinder the development of China's semiconductor industry. The focus on self-sufficiency is deemed essential for long-term growth [7][24]. Product Innovations - Huawei's upcoming router, featuring "Star Flash" technology, is designed for enhanced connectivity in smart homes, with significant improvements in coverage and device capacity [8][25]. - Rokid Glasses AR, set to launch in 2025, integrates advanced AI functionalities and is designed for comfort and usability, indicating a potential surge in the edge AI market [9][26]. Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation and earnings forecast for key companies, with several rated as "Buy" based on their projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [11][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the pig farming and pet food industries [27]. Core Insights - Short-term pork demand expectations have been fulfilled, leading to a rebound in pig prices, with the average price reaching 16.38 yuan/kg, up 0.34 yuan/kg from the previous low [21][22]. - The report anticipates a slight rebound in pig prices in the short term, while maintaining a long-term view of gradual decline due to supply-side pressures [21][23]. - The pet economy is expected to continue expanding, driven by emotional value consumption trends, with a positive outlook on both domestic market growth and recovery of overseas orders [25][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The report highlights a 2% month-on-month increase in national pig slaughtering in October, with an average price of 18.25 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [19]. - The average profit per pig in October was 412 yuan, with a cumulative profit of 204 yuan per pig from January to October, an increase of 278 yuan year-on-year [19]. 2. Current Market View - The report notes that the pig price has touched a low and is expected to rebound slightly due to seasonal demand for cured meat products as temperatures drop [21][22]. - The average weekly price for pigs was reported at 16.15 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.48 yuan/kg [23]. 3. Stock Recommendations - Key stocks recommended include: - **Juxing Agriculture** (603477.SH): Expected to reduce breeding costs below 13 yuan/kg in 2024, enhancing profitability [30]. - **Zhengbang Technology** (002157.SZ): Benefiting from cost control improvements and business recovery [30]. - **Dekang Agriculture** (2019.HK): Positioned in the industry’s top tier for breeding costs, with a projected output of 4.0261 million pigs in the first half of 2024 [30]. 4. Industry Data - As of November 22, 2024, the average price for piglets was 399.05 yuan/head, with a week-on-week change of -0.70% [39]. - The feed price data indicates corn at 2210.20 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.19% [34]. 5. Pet Food Market - The report notes a 7.95% year-on-year increase in pet food exports in October, totaling 0.69 million tons [26]. - The domestic pet market is expected to expand significantly, with a focus on tracking developments in both primary and secondary markets [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Views - The upcoming release of the 2024 medical insurance directory is expected to positively impact the pharmaceutical industry by supporting innovation and improving drug accessibility [2] - The development of commercial health insurance is anticipated to overcome technical bottlenecks, contributing to a multi-tiered medical security system [4] - An increase in respiratory disease diagnosis demand is expected as the winter season approaches, with a rise in positive rates for respiratory pathogens [6] - The potential for domestic GLP-1 drugs to enter international markets is promising, given the unmet demand in China [8] - The retail pharmacy sector is undergoing a significant consolidation, benefiting leading companies as market concentration increases [10] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points over the past week, with a decline of 2.36% [29] - Over the past month, the industry also outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.72 percentage points, with a decline of 1.99% [32] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical industry index currently has a PE (TTM) of 31.59, which is below the historical average of 33.43 [53] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report highlights various recent studies and insights into the pharmaceutical sector, including the growth of blood products and the impact of policy support on inhalation preparations [60] 4. Important Industry Policies and News - Recent policies aim to enhance the management of grassroots drug supply and expand the variety of medications available in primary healthcare settings [65] - Significant news includes the approval of various drugs and collaborations in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating ongoing innovation and market activity [67][90]

Group 1 - The report indicates a significant outflow of foreign capital from the A-share market, with a net outflow of $4.5 billion, the highest since September, while there is continued inflow into Hong Kong stocks [4][24]. - The report anticipates that gold prices will fluctuate around $2,700 ± $150 per ounce until the end of the year, with a potential valuation shift expected in 2025 [4][23]. - The report highlights a bullish outlook for industrial manufacturing, materials, and consumer sectors, with specific recommendations to increase positions in A-share automotive and home appliance stocks, as well as Hong Kong's social service and media sectors [4][25][27]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity risks, noting that the reverse repurchase and junk bond markets are beginning to tighten, suggesting a cautious approach to investments in RMB assets [4][21]. - The report suggests that the second round of B-share rebounds is primarily driven by high-leverage investors, and if the intensity of financing purchases declines, the profit-making effect may diminish [4][24]. - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as energy, industrial manufacturing, and consumer goods, while also advising caution in the healthcare sector due to a slight decrease in positions [4][26][29]. Group 3 - The report identifies a strong performance in the Hong Kong market, with a 1.2% absolute return and an excess return of 6.55% since early November, indicating a favorable environment for active stock selection [4][25]. - The report notes that the financing balance in the A-share market remains at 1.83 trillion, highlighting potential risks of market pullbacks [4][24]. - The report suggests that the upcoming policy announcements related to deficit rates and special bonds may provide additional market support before the two sessions next year [4][24]. Group 4 - The report recommends two ETFs for the week: Media ETF (512980) and Information Security ETF (159613), indicating a strategic focus on these sectors [4][39]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring external market trends, particularly the performance of U.S. Treasury yields and their implications for investment strategies [4][45]. - The report discusses the significance of industry rotation strategies, emphasizing the need to respond to changes in fundamental data and investor sentiment [4][41][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is currently experiencing a downward trend due to a lack of consumer confidence and a seasonal sales slowdown. The recovery of performance is contingent on favorable policies and a resurgence in consumer spending [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on liquor companies with strong performance certainty and low valuations, recommending specific stocks such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly News - Industry news includes a 16.6% increase in beer imports in October and a 67.7% increase in wine import value [1][2]. - Company news highlights Guizhou Moutai's expansion of its product offerings and Shanxi Fenjiu's initiation of a new liquor production project [1][2]. 2. Company Feedback - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock performance, indicating that the liquor sector is under pressure, with a focus on the operational quality and resilience of companies amid market challenges [1][2]. - It suggests that the future performance of liquor companies will depend on the establishment of annual targets and the recovery of consumer confidence [1][2]. 3. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategy - The report maintains the recommended order of sub-sectors: liquor > beer > snacks = soft drinks > frozen foods > condiments > dairy products [1][2]. - It identifies key companies to watch in various segments, including seasoning (Haitian Flavor Industry), frozen foods (Anjuke Foods), and beer (Tsingtao Brewery) [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the new energy vehicle industry [3]. Core Insights - Strong demand and the introduction of high-quality models are driving growth in the new energy vehicle sector, with October production and sales reaching 1.463 million and 1.43 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 48% and 49.6% [2]. - The release of new technologies, such as CATL's "Xiaoyao" super hybrid battery, is expected to further stimulate demand across various brands [2]. - The overall price levels in the industry are at a low point, with expectations for price increases as demand exceeds forecasts [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report highlights that the "old-for-new" policy is boosting demand, while some companies are reducing capital expenditures, leading to a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics. Profitability in the industry is expected to improve quarter-on-quarter in 2024, with valuations likely to recover [3]. - Key materials companies to watch include Zhejiang Rongtai, Tianji Shares, Putailai, and Hunan Youneng [3]. - New directions for investment include mergers and acquisitions (Jieban Technology, Ribo Fashion), liquid cooling technologies (Qiangrui Technology, Shenling Environment, Feirongda, Yingweike), consumer batteries (Haopeng Technology, Zhuhai Guanyu), solid-state batteries, and composite current collectors (Yinglian Shares) [3]. Market Performance - In the latest week, the new energy vehicle index, lithium battery index, fuel cell index, charging pile index, and energy storage index experienced fluctuations of -0.44%, +3.31%, +0.02%, +1.39%, and -1.28%, respectively [5]. - Notable stock performances included Fosl Plastic and Dongfang Precision, which saw increases of 61.2% and 61.1%, respectively, while Zhenhua New Materials and Xinyu Ren experienced declines of -15.7% and -13.0% [5][33]. Price Trends - Lithium prices have seen a recent uptick, with carbonate lithium priced at 79,000 CNY/ton, up 0.5% from the previous week, and hydroxide lithium at 67,900 CNY/ton, up 1.0% [41]. - The report notes that the prices of key materials such as nickel and hexafluorophosphate lithium have also increased, while some precursor materials have seen slight declines [41][44]. Production and Sales Data - In the first ten months of 2024, China's electric vehicle sales reached 9.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%, with October sales alone at 1.43 million units, reflecting a 49.6% increase [50]. - Major brands like BYD and Zeekr reported impressive sales figures, with BYD achieving 503,000 units sold in October, a 67% year-on-year increase [56].