2025 年 09 月 28 日 平台备战双十一，各美护品牌积极参与 推荐(首次) 投资要点 分析师：朱珠 S1050521110001 zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒(申万) | 5.3 | 23.6 | 59.1 | | 沪深 300 | 1.9 | 16.0 | 22.9 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 传媒 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《传媒行业周报：阿里提出 ASI 政策护航数字消费关注 AI 焕新应 用》2025-09-28 2、《传媒行业周报：迎国庆档双 11 抢跑华为《智能世界 2035》迎智能 体互联网》2025-09-21 3、《传媒行业周报：以 AI 为支点 撬动国产应用新增量可期》2025- 09-07 ▌ 2024 年双十一期间美妆市场表现强劲 2024 年双十一期间，2024 年双 11 线上渠道美妆 GMV 为 1267 亿元，同比综合平均增长 17.42%。其中，淘天平台 GMV ...

2025 年 09 月 28 日 罄， 推荐关注化工 ETF》2025-09-22 投资要点 ▌本周建议一览 核心观点： 大类资产继续演绎"高风偏但高脆弱，增加保护"的配置 逻辑，本周公布的美国经济数据较好，印证了"预防式降 息"性质。GDP 终值和当周初请失业人数均大超预期，数 据公布后市场交易降息预期略有回摆，美元指数走强，美 股、港 A 科技股均承压。 高风偏但高脆弱，"慢牛"中仍需耐心 分析师：吕思江 S1050522030001 lvsj@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：马晨 S1050522050001 machen@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《基本面、资金面、情绪面三维 共振，积极看多港股市场》2025- 09-23 2、《降息一周后对大类资产怎么 看？》2025-09-22 3、《第二批科创债 ETF 首日即售 我们仍然强调本轮是非典型的"预防式降息"：硬数据不 差，流动性不太可能立刻大幅度宽松；经济景气度不低， 意味着股债性价比仍然偏向权益。自四月初以来，风险资 产仓位在本周第一次出现存量流出，值得注意。总之是一 个"高风偏但是高脆弱，增加保护"的格局。 国内资产的增量流动性在十 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the growth rate of the real - sector's liabilities expected to decline to around 8% by the end of the year, and the government - sector's liabilities to around 12.5%. The bond market will not enter a trending bear market, and yields are expected to oscillate at low levels. Risk preference repair is basically in place, and future risk preference will oscillate within a range with earnings. The recommended asset - allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value stocks. In the de - leveraging cycle, the dividend - type stocks in the A + H market are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [3][4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In August 2025, the real - sector's liability growth rate was 8.9%, down from 9.1% previously, and is expected to drop to around 8.7% in September. The government's liability growth rate was 15.0% at the end of August, and is expected to decline to around 14.5% in September. The central bank aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio, and large - scale debt resolution reduces local government financing costs. The money market tightened marginally last week, and there is a higher probability of a temporary relaxation in October [3][4]. - **Asset Side**: The physical volume data in August was weaker than in July. The annual nominal economic growth target for 2025 is around 4.9%, and it needs to be further observed whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [5]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Overall Performance**: Last week, the money market tightened marginally, and the stock - bond market was generally stable, with value stocks slightly outperforming. The ten - year bond yield rose 1 basis point to 1.88%, and the one - year bond yield remained stable at 1.39%. The wide - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 0.66pct last week and - 8.04pct since July [7]. - **Risk Preference and Asset Allocation**: Risk preference repair is basically in place, and future risk preference will oscillate within a range with earnings. The recommended asset - allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value stocks. In the next two weeks, the recommended allocation is the SSE 50 index (60% position), the CSI 1000 index (20% position), and the 30 - year Treasury bond ETF (20% position) [9][10]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. The sectors with the largest increases were power equipment, non - ferrous metals, electronics, environmental protection, and media, while the sectors with the largest declines were social services, comprehensive, commercial retail, light manufacturing, and textile and apparel [33]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of September 26, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, computers, machinery, and automobiles, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel. The industries with the largest increase in crowding were power equipment, electronics, non - ferrous metals, computers, and media [34]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, the PE (TTM) of power equipment, non - ferrous metals, electronics, environmental protection, and media increased the most, while that of social services, comprehensive, commercial retail, light manufacturing, and textile and apparel increased the least. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banking, insurance, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and consumer electronics [39][40]. - **Industry Prosperity**: External demand generally rebounded, with the global manufacturing PMI rising from 49.7 to 50.9 in August. Domestic demand showed mixed signals, with second - hand housing prices falling and some quantity indicators rising and falling. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries increased from May to August and declined slightly in September [44]. - **Public Fund Market Review**: In the fourth week of September, most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of September 26, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 4.21 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [60]. - **Industry Recommendation**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a revenue of 2.264 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.12%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 181 million yuan, a decline of 8.52% year-on-year [4] - The company holds over 50% of the retail market for blood glucose meters in China and ranks as the fourth largest blood glucose meter company globally, with products available in over 3,800 hospitals and more than 400,000 pharmacies [4] - The Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) system remains a key revenue contributor, accounting for over 73% of the company's performance, with ongoing international expansion and product registrations in multiple countries [5] - The company has established a professional health management team and a comprehensive service network covering 187 countries, enhancing its global business development [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 4.887 billion, 5.572 billion, and 6.129 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.71, 0.94, and 1.15 yuan, indicating a positive outlook for the company's growth [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.264 billion yuan, a 6.12% increase year-on-year, while the net profit decreased by 8.52% to 181 million yuan [4] Market Position - The company commands over 50% of the blood glucose meter retail market in China and is the fourth largest globally, with a user base exceeding 25 million across 187 countries [4] Product Development - The CGM system is the primary revenue source, with over 73% contribution, and the company is expanding its product registration in various international markets [5] Global Strategy - The company has built a robust health management team and service network, facilitating its global business expansion [6] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 4.887 billion, 5.572 billion, and 6.129 billion yuan, with EPS estimates of 0.71, 0.94, and 1.15 yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [7]

Report Title - Local Boom in Convertible Bond Gold Mining (1) [2] Report Date and Analysts - Report Date: September 28, 2025 - Analysts: Luo Yunfeng (SAC No.: S1050524060001), Yang Feiran (SAC No.: S1050524070001) [3] Core Views - The core driving force of the market in this round has been the improvement of risk appetite, which is an endogenous variable of profitability. Since September, considering the decline in equity trading volume, the narrowing gap between the growth and value of equities, and the increase in the proportion of the same - direction movement of stocks and bonds, it is believed that the repair of risk appetite is basically in place. In the future, risk appetite will fluctuate within a range along with profitability, with the upper and lower limits corresponding to the levels in early January (the week of January 6) and early September (the week of September 8) respectively. On September 25, 2025, it approached the lowest level in recent years on October 12, 2024 [4]. - The recent shift of the market from "banks + micro - cap stocks" to technology has a profit foundation, that is, the overall economy is bottoming out but there are local upturns. The private - sector debt growth rate is used as a proxy variable for profitability, and its downward bottom appeared in October 2024 and has not reached a new low as of July 2025 [4]. - The long - term cycle of convertible bonds is synchronized with equities. The periodic recovery of convertible bond valuations provides signals for left - hand side position - adding and profit - taking. Therefore, short - term fluctuations may be leading and amplifying signals of equities. Recently, although convertible bond valuations have been actively adjusted, they are still at a relatively high level. After the holiday, attention should be paid to locally booming industries and performance - realizing targets [6]. 01 Risk Appetite Will Follow Profitability in Range - bound Fluctuations - The repair of risk appetite in this round may be basically in place. The highest point of risk appetite since data became available was in 2007, and the lowest point was on April 7, 2025. Excluding the impact of event - driven factors, the lowest point was in January 2025. The private - sector debt growth rate, as a proxy variable for profitability, reached its bottom in October 2024 and has not set a new low as of July 2025. The risk appetite may enter a range - bound fluctuation, and on September 25, 2025, it approached the lowest level in recent years on October 12, 2024 [8]. - The overall economic fundamentals are still in the bottom - grinding stage. In the second quarter, the real GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than in the first quarter. Investment has been sluggish due to the real estate sector, and infrastructure investment has declined at an accelerating pace since mid - year. Consumption has been affected by the high - then - low national subsidies at the beginning of the year, and the CPI has been in a slump. Industrial product prices have shown a trend of price increases with volume contraction. From the perspective of Wind All - A earnings data, the overall economic fundamentals are still bottoming out [11][14]. 02 Fundamental Local Boom Corresponds to the Double - Innovation Market - In terms of revenue, the improvement of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the ChiNext Index is leading, while the Micro - cap and Dividend Indexes have the most obvious decline. In 2025Q2, the revenue growth rate of the ChiNext Index increased by 5 percentage points to 9.3%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ended its relative disadvantage for three consecutive quarters. The revenue of the Micro - cap and Dividend Indexes decreased by 7.8% and 5.9% respectively in 2025Q2 [18]. - In terms of gross profit margin, compared with 2024Q2, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the SSE 50 had the most significant increase in gross profit margin in 2025Q2, up 2.5 and 2.0 percentage points respectively. The ChiNext Index had a gross profit margin of 24.5% in 2025Q2, still the highest among broad - based indexes [21]. - Most indexes' year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025Q2 declined quarter - on - quarter. The Science and Technology Innovation Board had a significant improvement in net profit in 2025Q2, and the ChiNext Index continued to lead other broad - based indexes in terms of growth rate [24]. - In terms of specific industries, in 2025Q2, the industries with the highest year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders were gaming (104%), steel (82%), precious metals (76%), etc. The industries with the largest decline were real estate (- 132%), coal (- 37%), etc. The industries with positive growth in 2025Q2 and an improvement compared with 2025Q1 were banks, insurance, etc. Combining the historical percentile of valuation, the industries with high performance growth and still some room for valuation are power equipment, new energy, gaming, and consumer electronics [29][30] 03 Convertible Bonds Follow Equities to Explore Locally Booming Sectors - The long - term cycle of convertible bonds is synchronized with equities. The short - term periodic recovery of convertible bond valuations provides signals for left - hand side position - adding and profit - taking. Short - term fluctuations may be leading and amplifying signals of equities. Recently, although convertible bond valuations have been actively adjusted, they are still at a relatively high level. After the holiday, attention should be paid to locally booming industries and performance - realizing targets. Convertible bond targets with good performance in 2025Q2 are concentrated in power equipment, electronics, etc. [45] - The All - A Index can basically explain most of the long - term fluctuations of convertible bonds. The regression results show that the performance of convertible bonds mainly follows the equity market, and the equity market trend can explain 91.4% of the price fluctuations of the convertible bond market. The convertible bond market follows equities in this round, and is less affected by the bond market [48][59] - The short - term fluctuations of convertible bond valuations provide signals for left - hand side position - adding and profit - taking. From June 23 to August 25, the active increase in convertible bond valuations was greater than that of the underlying stocks. Therefore, the convertible bond market entered the downward - oscillation cycle earlier than the equity market on August 27 and had a larger decline due to the return of valuations [61] - ETF share fluctuations have a relatively small impact on the price fluctuations of underlying convertible bond targets. Since September, the growth rate of convertible bond ETF shares has decreased significantly, which may mainly reflect sentiment and valuation [64] - Convertible bonds with good profitability have larger increases and are more resistant to declines. From June 23 to August 25, convertible bonds followed the underlying stocks in a sharp rise, with the growth sector leading. Some convertible bonds in individual sectors outperformed the underlying stocks, mainly concentrated in industries and targets with excellent performance. From August 25 to September 23, convertible bonds led the All - A Index in decline, and their subsequent performance was weaker than that of equities, mainly due to the periodicity of convertible bond valuation fluctuations [70][77] - The new energy sector under the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 may be one of the most certain trading directions in the next five years. The new energy vehicle penetration rate continues to increase, and the energy storage market has an important turning point. The report focuses on Keli Convertible Bonds and Hongfa Convertible Bonds in the new energy field [83] - Keli Convertible Bonds: Kodal Precision is the global leader in precision structural parts. The company's performance has been growing steadily. The convertible bond has a relatively large issuance scale, and the current price is around 140 yuan, with a conversion premium rate of 18.6%. It is an offensive convertible bond with high - quality underlying stocks and has no risk of forced redemption for the time being [87][89][92] - Hongfa Convertible Bonds: Hongfa Co., Ltd. is the world's largest relay manufacturer. The company's performance has been growing steadily. The convertible bond has a large issuance scale, and the current price is around 134 yuan, with a conversion premium rate of 18.2%. The downward - adjustment clause is relatively loose [95][98][101]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [6][10]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Langyan Life will enhance the company's industrial layout, allowing it to achieve a "CRO + pharmaceutical industry" strategic positioning. Langyan Life specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of high-end chemical drugs and raw materials, which will synergize with the company's R&D services [6]. - The company’s self-developed STC007 injection is entering critical clinical phases, with promising results in its Phase II trials for postoperative pain and chronic kidney disease-related itching. The drug targets peripheral pain relief without central nervous system side effects, indicating a strong market potential [7]. - The company is also advancing in the small nucleic acid drug development sector, with two products in preclinical stages. One product, ABA001, is expected to enter IND status by 2026, indicating a forward-looking approach in drug development [8]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 12.59 billion, 14.15 billion, and 16.15 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.06, 2.41, and 2.96 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 32.4, 27.7, and 22.5 for the same years [10][12]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 231 million yuan, with a growth rate of 30% compared to the previous year. The net profit is expected to continue growing at rates of 16.9% and 22.9% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [12][13].

2025 年 09 月 27 日 —阳光电源（300274.SZ）公司动态研究报告 储能强势增长，布局 AIDC 打开新成长空间 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -50 0 50 100 150 (%) 阳光电源 沪深300 相关研究 ▌业绩稳定增长，盈利能力提升 2025H1，公司实现营业收入 435.3 亿元，同比增长 40%，归母 净利润 77.3 亿元，同比增长 56%；毛利率达 34.36%，同比提 升 1.94pct，净利率达 17.77%，同比提升 1.78pct，盈利能力 进一步提升。 ▌储能翻倍以上增长，逆变器稳步增长 市场表现 买入(首次) 投资要点 | 分析师：张涵 | S1050521110008 | | --- | --- | | zhanghan3@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：罗笛箫 | S1050525070001 | | luodx@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2 0 2 5-0 9-2 6 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 157.5 | | 总市值（亿元） | 3265 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2073 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry, indicating an expected performance greater than 10% relative to the benchmark index [2]. Core Insights - CrowdStrike reported a total revenue of $1.169 billion for Q2 FY26, representing a year-over-year growth of 21%. The Ending Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $4.66 billion, up 20% year-over-year [5][6]. - The company achieved a net new ARR of $221 million, accelerating ahead of expectations by one quarter [5]. - Non-GAAP operating income was $255 million, with a record operating margin of 22%, exceeding company guidance [5]. - The Falcon Flex model has driven deeper platform strategy, with over 1,000 customers and a 75% utilization rate among Flex contracts [6][7]. - Emerging business platforms, including cloud security and Next-Gen SIEM, saw significant growth, with combined ARR exceeding $1.56 billion, up over 40% year-over-year [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 FY26 was $1.169 billion, with subscription revenue at $1.103 billion. The Ending ARR was $4.66 billion, with a net new ARR of $221 million [5]. - Non-GAAP subscription gross margin was 80%, and total gross margin was 78%. The operating cash flow for Q2 was $333 million, with free cash flow at $284 million [5]. Business Model and Strategy - The Falcon Flex model has seen customer adoption with over 220 new Flex customers, and 60% of customers with ARR over $100,000 adopted 8 or more modules [6][7]. - The Next-Gen SIEM business achieved an ARR of over $430 million, growing more than 95% year-over-year, supported by the acquisition of Onum [8]. Growth Areas - Cloud security ARR exceeded $700 million, growing over 35%, while Next-Gen Identity ARR surpassed $435 million, up over 21% [8]. - The company's AI initiatives, including the Agentic AI security analyst, saw over 85% growth, integrating AI into the Falcon platform [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued monitoring of the Falcon Flex model's renewal performance and the market expansion effectiveness of the Next-Gen SIEM business post-Onum integration [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The launch of Meta's AI glasses and accompanying handband indicates significant potential for edge computing business development [1]. - The AI glasses represent a crucial entry point for edge AI, with substantial market opportunities anticipated [5]. - Meta has a strong market position in the AI glasses sector, supported by years of research and development [7]. - The report suggests that investors should monitor Meta's advancements in AI technology and edge hardware promotion [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer industry has shown a performance of -3.8% over 1 month, 16.0% over 3 months, and 57.1% over 12 months [2]. Market Performance - The market performance graph indicates fluctuations in the computer sector compared to the CSI 300 index [3]. Product Launch - Meta introduced the Meta Ray-Ban Display, the first AI glasses integrating microphone, speaker, camera, and AI capabilities, along with the Meta Neural Band for control [5]. Market Growth Projections - Global smart glasses market shipments are projected to reach 14.518 million units in Q1 2025, a 42.5% increase year-on-year, with China expected to see shipments of 2.907 million units, a 121.1% increase [5]. AI Glasses Development - The report emphasizes that AI glasses align with the potential logic of AI applications, making them a focus for hardware manufacturers [5]. Competitive Landscape - Meta's extensive experience in AI glasses technology positions it favorably against competitors, including Xiaomi and Huawei in the domestic market [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report encourages investors to focus on Meta's ongoing developments in AI technology and edge hardware [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - Meta has updated its Meta AI APP, introducing the Vibes platform, which allows users to gain inspiration from AI-generated videos created by the community, enhancing the AI video application ecosystem [4][6] - The integration of social networks with AI is a significant trend, and Meta, as a social network giant, is well-positioned to leverage AI technology to innovate platform experiences and drive business growth [4][6] - Meta is focusing on the development and promotion of AI models, applications, and edge hardware, which is expected to revolutionize social network platforms and enhance user engagement [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer industry has shown a performance of -3.8% over 1 month, 16.0% over 3 months, and 57.1% over 12 months, while the CSI 300 index has performed at 3.7% over 1 month, 16.0% over 3 months, and 22.9% over 12 months [1] Investment Highlights - Vibes combines AI video generation with community interaction, creating a more personalized platform that enhances user experience and engagement [4] - The combination of social networks and AI is a crucial trend, with Meta's multiple platforms poised to innovate user experiences and drive business growth [6] Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - Meta's stock price is projected to be $743.75 with EPS estimates of 24.61, 27.49, and 30.0 for 2024, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [9]