2025 年 09 月 08 日 关注白酒底部机会，新消费延续高景气 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料(申万) 5.0 0.7 16.1 沪深 300 8.7 15.1 38.0 市场表现 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：半年报季 如期收官，新老消费可圈可点》 2025-09-01 2、《食品饮料行业周报：半年报利 空充分释放，关注新老消费轮动》 2025-08-25 3、《食品饮料行业周报：关注底部 白酒和休闲零食，新消费业绩持续 兑现》2025-08-17 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）1-7 月广东省啤酒产量 287 万千升；2）中国 酒业知识产权大会将召开；3）白酒智酿行业标准启动会将召 开。 大众品板块：行业底 ...

3 2025 年 09 月 08 日 Meta Connect 大会即将召开，科技巨头承诺加 码 AI 投资 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 电子(申万) 16.9 33.4 89.6 沪深 300 8.4 15.1 38.0 市场表现 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 (%) 电子 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电子行业周报：国产未来10年 AI 战略蓝图已现，国产 AI 算力基建 实现重大突破》2025-09-01 2、《电子行业周报：DeepSeek 正式 发布新模型 V3.1，英伟达暂停 H20 芯片生产》2025-08-25 3、《电子行业周报：高端AI芯片国 产化势在必行，覆铜板厂商涨价反 映PCB产业链景气度高企》2025-08- 18 ▌上周回顾 9 月 1 日- 9 月 5 日当周，申万一级行业涨跌呈分化的态势。 其中电子行业下跌 4.57%，位列第 28 位。估值前三的行业为 计算机、国防军工、电子，电子行业市盈率为 64.23。 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is at a high level, with a score of 90, categorizing it as "overheated" [5][9][21] - Key themes being tracked include robotics, biomedicine, and domestic chips, with significant developments in each area [5][9] Robotics Theme - Tesla's recent release of its "Master Plan 4" emphasizes AI and robotics, with CEO Elon Musk stating that approximately 80% of Tesla's future value will come from its Optimus robot [5] - Related stocks include Wolong Electric Drive (600580) and Changsheng Bearing (300718) [5] Biomedicine Theme - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has initiated a biomedicine training program, focusing on innovation and collaboration between industry and academia to support health initiatives in China [5] - Relevant stocks in this sector are China National Pharmaceutical Group Modern (600420) and Tiantan Biological (600161) [5] Domestic Chips Theme - The 13th Semiconductor Equipment and Core Components and Materials Exhibition (CSEAC 2025) is set to take place, promoting local supply chain development and showcasing advancements in critical equipment [5] - Key stocks associated with this theme include Zhichun Technology (603690) and Jianghua Micro (603078) [5] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that when market sentiment is below or around 50, it tends to support the market, while levels above 90 may create resistance [9] - The report also provides insights into net inflows and outflows of major stocks, indicating investor sentiment and potential market movements [10][12][22]

Group 1 - The report highlights the continuous optimization of supply and demand structures in the new energy vehicle industry, supported by favorable policies and strong demand resilience. In July, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 26.3% and 27.4% [3][72] - The report emphasizes that the overall price levels in the industry are at a low point, making it easier for prices to rise than to fall. This presents a good opportunity for investment in high-quality companies within the supply chain, which are currently valued at historically low levels [3][72] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the new energy vehicle industry, with a focus on sectors expected to yield excess returns, including solid-state batteries, battery materials, and liquid cooling technologies [4][73] Group 2 - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of various indices, with the new energy vehicle index and lithium battery index showing strong growth of 33.57% and 42.42% year-to-date, respectively [22] - Key companies such as Tianhong Lithium, Xian Dao Intelligent, and Yiwei Lithium Energy have shown significant weekly gains, with increases of 78.8%, 51.5%, and 36.4%, respectively [26] - The report tracks the prices of key materials in the lithium battery supply chain, noting a decrease in lithium carbonate prices to 74,700 yuan per ton, down 6.2% from the previous week, while cobalt prices increased by 1.5% to 271,000 yuan per ton [34][37] Group 3 - The report indicates that from January to July 2025, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 8.232 million and 8.22 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 39.2% and 38.5% [48] - The report mentions that in August, major companies like BYD and Xiaopeng reported varying sales figures, with BYD selling 374,000 units and Xiaopeng experiencing a 169% year-on-year increase in deliveries [49] - The report notes that the global power battery installation volume reached 590.7 GWh in the first seven months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.3%, with Chinese companies showing particularly strong performance [64][65]

Report Information - Report Title: "Bonds Rise Amid Dispute - Asset Allocation Weekly" - Date: September 7, 2025 - Analysts: Luo Yunfeng, Huang Hailan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the entity sector's debt growth rate trending downward. The government aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio, and large - scale debt resolution is beneficial for the whole society's expectations [2][19]. - In the short - term, the capital market shows a pattern of "stock bear and bond bull", with risk preference declining. The cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors bonds, and the equity style turns to value dominance [6][24]. - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The report recommends an A + H dividend portfolio and an A - share portfolio [9][66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis Liability Side - In July 2025, the debt growth rate of the entity sector was 9.1% (previous value 8.9%), expected to drop to about 9.0% in August and further decline to around 8% by the end of the year. The capital situation in the financial sector may be tight in September [2][19]. - The net increase of government bonds last week was 184 billion yuan (higher than the planned 156.5 billion yuan), and this week's planned net increase is 578 billion yuan. The government's debt growth rate is expected to decline to 12.5% by the end of the year [3][20]. - The one - year Treasury bond yield is expected to have a lower limit of about 1.3%, the ten - year Treasury bond yield's lower limit is about 1.6%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield's lower limit is about 1.8% [3][20]. Asset Side - After a brief stabilization in June, the physical quantity data declined again in July. The full - year nominal economic growth target in 2025 is about 4.9%, and it is necessary to observe whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][21]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the capital situation tightened, risk preference declined, and the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.84%, and the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 1.40% [6][24]. - The broad - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 1.07 pct last week and - 7.11 pct since July. The maximum drawdown was 12.1% (compared with the CSI 300's 15.7%) [6][24]. - This week, the report moderately increases the proportion of growth stocks, recommending the CSI 1000 index (80% position) and the 30 - year Treasury bond ETF (20% position) [8][27]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, A - shares declined with reduced trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.2%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.8%, while the ChiNext Index rose 2.4%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, power equipment, comprehensive, non - ferrous metals, medicine and biology, and textile and apparel had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, computer, non - bank finance, electronics, and steel had the largest declines [32]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of September 5, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, machinery, computer, and communication, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and steel [33]. - The top five industries with increased crowding this week were power equipment, commercial retail, media, medicine and biology, and basic chemicals, while the top five with decreased crowding were computer, non - bank finance, national defense and military industry, electronics, and food and beverage [33]. - As of September 5, the crowding of power equipment, communication, electronics, machinery, and commercial retail was at relatively high percentiles since 2018, while that of petroleum and petrochemical, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, transportation, and coal was at relatively low percentiles [33]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, real estate, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, beauty care, and textile and apparel had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while national defense and military industry, computer, non - bank finance, electronics, and communication had the smallest increases [39]. - As of September 5, 2025, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, transportation, auto parts, beauty care, and consumer electronics [40]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - Externally, there was a general recovery. The global manufacturing PMI rose from 49.7 to 50.9 in August, and most major economies' PMIs increased. The CCFI index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week in the latest week, and port cargo throughput rebounded [44]. - Domestically, second - hand housing prices fell in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined, and the ten - industry fitted capacity utilization rate continued to rise slightly from July to August [44]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the first week of September (September 1 - 5), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of September 5, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 4.05 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [61]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio and A - share portfolio mainly focus on industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemical, and transportation [66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue increase of 12.50% year-on-year in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 2.473 billion yuan [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.93% year-on-year to 796 million yuan in H1 2025, primarily due to operational disruptions [3][8] - The company is expected to benefit from high silver and tin prices, along with two acquisitions that will support future capacity growth [12] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In H1 2025, the company produced 3,589.82 tons of tin, a decrease of 20.64% year-on-year, while silver production increased by 4.57% to 131.32 tons [4] - The main revenue segments for H1 2025 were tin (31.03%), silver (35.05%), and zinc (19.46%), with total main business revenue of 2.455 billion yuan, up 11.92% year-on-year [5] - The gross profit margin for tin was 68.39%, while silver's gross profit margin was 54.66%, both showing slight declines due to increased costs [7] Acquisition and Resource Expansion - The company successfully acquired 85% of Yubang Mining, which contributed to revenue growth and resource expansion [5] - In August 2025, the company acquired 96.04% of Atlantic Tin Industry, marking its first overseas acquisition and enhancing its international resource portfolio [10] Future Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.243 billion, 5.700 billion, and 5.700 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.113 billion, 2.413 billion, and 2.470 billion yuan [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry, highlighting potential growth driven by AI applications [4][8]. Core Insights - The integration of AI is expected to enhance the commercial value of cultural media internet applications, with a continuous upward trend in AI development from hardware to applications [3][14]. - The Chinese government has launched initiatives to implement "Artificial Intelligence +" actions, aiming for over 90% penetration of new intelligent terminals and applications by 2030, which will support the iteration of AI models and applications in enterprises [3][14]. - Key companies in the media sector are recommended for investment, including Oriental Pearl, Mango Super Media, BlueFocus, Wanda Film, and others, with specific growth drivers identified for each [4][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Review - The media sector has shown significant performance, with the media index rising by 72.7% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1][3]. - The report notes a recovery in the film industry, with the summer box office reaching 11.966 billion yuan, surpassing the previous year's total [28]. Key Company Recommendations - Companies such as Oriental Pearl (600637), Mango Super Media (300413), and BlueFocus (300058) are highlighted for their potential growth in the AI-driven market [4][8]. - Specific forecasts for earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are provided for various companies, indicating strong growth prospects [8]. AI and Technology Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving new business models and applications, particularly in the fields of digital marketing and content creation [14][18]. - The upcoming Alibaba Cloud Summit is expected to showcase advancements in AI technology and its applications across various sectors [14]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the evolving landscape of e-commerce and digital marketing, with companies like Alibaba and JD.com leveraging AI to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [25][26]. - The gaming sector is also highlighted, with Tencent's integration of social media and gaming platforms indicating a trend towards deeper user engagement [24]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the media sector, driven by AI innovations and supportive government policies, with a focus on companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [3][4][14].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is rated at 34 points, categorizing it as "cold," which suggests a cautious investment environment [6][10]. - Key themes identified for investment opportunities include robotics, biomedicine, and domestic chips, with specific companies highlighted for each sector [6][10]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment temperature indicator shows a score of 34, indicating a "cold" market environment. Historical trends suggest that when sentiment is below or near 50, the market may find support, while scores above 90 could indicate resistance [10][22]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Robotics**: Tesla's recent "Master Plan 4" emphasizes AI and robotics, with Elon Musk stating that approximately 80% of Tesla's future value will come from the Optimus robot. Related companies include Wolong Electric (600580) and Changsheng Bearing (300718) [6]. - **Biomedicine**: The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is promoting innovation in biomedicine, aiming to enhance collaboration between industry and academia. Key companies in this sector are Sinopharm Modern (600420) and Tiantan Biological (600161) [6]. - **Domestic Chips**: The 13th Semiconductor Equipment and Core Components and Materials Exhibition is taking place, focusing on strengthening China's semiconductor supply chain. Relevant companies include Zhichun Technology (603690) and Jianghua Micro (603078) [6]. Capital Flow Analysis - The report lists the top ten stocks with significant net inflows, indicating investor interest in these companies. For instance, Shengli Precision (002426) saw a net inflow of approximately 786.54 million [11]. - Conversely, the report also highlights stocks with substantial net outflows, such as Yanshan Technology (002195), which experienced a net outflow of approximately 302.59 million [13]. Industry Overview - The report categorizes the market sentiment into various states, including "cold," "cool," "neutral," "warm," and "hot," providing strategic recommendations for each state. In a "cold" market, it suggests looking for value investment opportunities while being cautious [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to weak liquor consumption, but new products have gained market recognition [1][5] - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategies, focusing on cost control and enhancing its product system, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's total revenue for H1 2025 was 561 million yuan, a decrease of 44% year-on-year, with a net profit of 9 million yuan, down 93% [4][5] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 217 million yuan, a decline of 57%, with a net loss of 23 million yuan, a decrease of 148% [4][5] Product and Sales Analysis - The company's product revenue for H1 2025 saw declines across various series, with the "Inner Reference" series down 36%, "Jiu Gui" down 51%, and "Xiang Quan" down 36% [6] - The company has streamlined its product offerings, reducing SKUs by over 50% in the "Jiu Gui" series, and implemented measures to address distributor inventory issues [6] Distribution and New Products - The company is accelerating the clearing of its distribution system, with a net reduction of 531 distributors, bringing the total to 805 [7] - A new co-branded product, "Jiu Gui Jiu · Free Love," launched in collaboration with a supermarket chain, has quickly sold out, indicating strong market demand [7] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts EPS of 0.17 yuan for 2025, 0.44 yuan for 2026, and 0.79 yuan for 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 391, 147, and 82 times [8][11] - The projected revenue growth rates are -49.7% for 2024, -16.8% for 2025, 9.8% for 2026, and 18.0% for 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [10] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum's H1 2025 revenue increased by 11.19% year-on-year to 15.328 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 0.51% to 2.084 billion yuan. The company reported a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, up 47.09% to 3.280 billion yuan [1][2] Production and Sales Summary - The production volume of electrolytic aluminum in H1 2025 remained stable at 585,400 tons, while alumina production increased by 9.76% to 1.1999 million tons. The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum rose by approximately 2.8% to 20,250 yuan per ton, and the average selling price of self-produced alumina increased by about 6% to 3,700 yuan per ton [2][3] - The external sales volume of electrolytic aluminum increased by approximately 2% year-on-year, and the external sales volume of alumina rose by about 7% [2] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, Tianshan Aluminum's total revenue was 15.328 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 3.100 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.01%. The revenue contribution from various segments was 65.26% from raw aluminum, 24.20% from alumina, 2.10% from high-purity aluminum, 6.89% from aluminum foil, and 1.55% from other segments [3] - The company forecasts revenues of 33.874 billion yuan, 35.207 billion yuan, and 37.396 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 4.594 billion yuan, 4.858 billion yuan, and 5.233 billion yuan for the same years [10][12]