2025 年 08 月 28 日 优质客户资源助力成长，竞争优势进一步巩固 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：张伟保 | S1050523110001 | | --- | --- | | zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：覃前 | S1050124070019 | | qinqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 1、《兴欣新材（001358）：主要产 品价格下跌致业绩承压，8800t 哌嗪 系列产品项目完成试生产》2025- 03-29 —兴欣新材（001358.SZ）公司事件点评报告 兴欣新材发布 2025 年半年度报告：公司 2025 年上半年实现 营业收入 2.18 亿元，同比+0.02%；实现归母净利润 0.34 亿 元，同比-21.72%。 分季度来看，2025Q2 单季度实现营业收入 1.13 亿元，同比 +2.07%，环比+8.13%；实现归母净利润 0.16 亿元，同比- 22.04%，环比-7.68%。 投资要点 | 基本数据 | 2025-08-28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 25.99 | | 总市值（亿元） | 32 | | 总 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [11] Core Views - The company has achieved significant growth in copper and cobalt production, with all products exceeding targets [5] - The financial performance shows a strong increase in revenue and profit, driven by rising prices of copper and cobalt [7][10] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in the Democratic Republic of Congo, preparing for future growth [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.671 billion yuan, marking a 60.07% year-on-year increase [4] - The operating cash flow was 12.009 billion yuan, reflecting a stable growth of 11.40% [4] Production Data - Copper production reached 353,600 tons, up 12.68% year-on-year, while cobalt production was 61,100 tons, up 13.05% [5] - The company exceeded its production guidance for copper and cobalt by 50% [6] Revenue Breakdown - The mining segment generated revenue of 39.402 billion yuan, a 25.64% increase, with a gross profit of 20.656 billion yuan, up 40.56% [6][7] - Copper revenue was 25.718 billion yuan, increasing by 28.42%, while cobalt revenue rose to 5.728 billion yuan, up 31.94% [7] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 224.771 billion yuan for 2025, with net profits expected to reach 16.527 billion yuan [11] - The current price of copper is in an upward cycle, and the company has managed to reduce production costs [11] Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a cash dividend payout ratio exceeding 40% of net profit for the years 2024 to 2026, with a historical high cash dividend of 5.456 billion yuan for 2024 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [12] Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth, benefiting from the increase in both copper and gold prices, with a notable rise in net profit [5][12] - The company’s H1 2025 revenue reached 167.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.50%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.29 billion yuan, up 54.41% year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company’s stock price has fluctuated between 13.94 and 23.3 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with an average daily trading volume of 310.29 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company produced 566,900 tons of copper, a 9.3% increase year-on-year, and 41.19 tons of gold, a 16.3% increase year-on-year [5] - The total revenue from copper was 27.26 billion yuan, a 12.73% increase, while gold revenue was 26.45 billion yuan, a 62.15% increase [6][7] Internal Exploration and External Acquisitions - The company added significant resources through internal exploration and external acquisitions, including a major investment in a listed mining company and the acquisition of gold mines in West Africa and Central Asia [9][10] Expansion Projects - Key expansion projects are progressing, including the second phase of the Tibet Giant Dragon Copper Mine and the construction of the largest copper smelting plant in Africa [11] Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 341.15 billion, 371.19 billion, and 388.17 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 46.12 billion, 52.60 billion, and 59.24 billion yuan [12][15]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 57, indicating a "neutral" stance. Historical trends suggest that when the sentiment score is below or around 50, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [5][9]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Robotics Theme**: NVIDIA is set to launch a new "brain" for robots, with a teaser posted on social media. Related stocks include Wolong Electric Drive (600580) and Changsheng Bearing (300718) [5]. - **GPU Theme**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to enhance the quality of computing power resources and promote the construction of green data centers. Key stocks include Loongson Technology (688047) and Jingjia Micro (300474) [5]. - **Rare Earth Theme**: Recent discussions in Shenzhen focused on integrating rare earth materials with low-altitude economy and robotics. Related stocks include Northern Rare Earth (600111) and Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals (600259) [5]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include: - Yanshan Technology (241,574.44 million) - Changchuan Technology (97,877.91 million) - Magpow (66,536.80 million) [10]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include: - Lingyi Technology (-296,399.02 million) - Tuo Wei Information (-231,921.54 million) - Ningde Times (-208,604.10 million) [11]. Financing and Margin Trading - The top ten stocks with the highest net buying in financing include: - Shenghong Technology (159,407.85 million) - Northern Rare Earth (140,896.69 million) - Ningde Times (65,729.57 million) [13]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net selling in margin trading include: - Zhongke Chuangda (888.65 million) - Pacific Securities (875.74 million) - Tianfeng Securities (749.94 million) [12]. Industry Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring market sentiment and capital flows to identify potential investment opportunities and risks within the sectors of robotics, GPU technology, and rare earth materials [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Insights - The AI wave is driving a surge in demand for PCB equipment, with global revenue in high-layer and HDI boards expected to grow by 40.2% and 18.8% respectively in 2024, positioning the company favorably in the market [3]. - The semiconductor equipment business is poised for breakthroughs, with the company successfully developing fourth-generation diamond laser cutting technology, filling a domestic gap and securing significant orders [4]. - The industrial laser high-power business is leading structural growth, with revenue from high-power laser cutting equipment projected to reach 2.963 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.67% [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.613 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.79%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 60.15% to 488 million yuan [2]. - The company forecasts revenues of 16.537 billion yuan, 19.057 billion yuan, and 21.932 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.29, 1.73, and 2.15 yuan [10][8]. Market Trends - The global semiconductor market is expected to reach 627.6 billion USD in 2024, growing by 19.1%, with the Chinese market growing by 18.3%, indicating a strong recovery [4]. - The company is transitioning from a traditional PCB equipment supplier to a high-value technology solution provider, capitalizing on the AI-driven industrial upgrade [3]. Competitive Position - The company has established a strong competitive edge in the semiconductor equipment sector by breaking the import monopoly and securing major orders, including a core process equipment order exceeding 50 million yuan [4]. - Strategic collaborations with leading enterprises further enhance the company's differentiated advantages in precision cutting and other specialized fields [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, leading to gradual profit enhancement and expansion of its second growth curve [1][5] - The company reported a total revenue of 689 million yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, but showed improvement in net profit loss compared to H1 2024 [4][5] - The company is enhancing its profitability through strict cost control measures, resulting in a gross margin increase of 5 percentage points to 22.81% in Q2 2025 [5] - The company is expanding its product lines in health food and optimizing its multi-channel distribution strategy, which includes partnerships with major retailers and e-commerce platforms [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 689 million yuan, with a net loss of 20 million yuan, an improvement from a net loss of 36 million yuan in H1 2024 [4] - Q2 2025 revenue was 276 million yuan, down 14% year-on-year, with a net loss of 60 million yuan [4] Profitability Improvement - The company's gross margin increased to 22.81% in Q2 2025, driven by targeted raw material procurement and refined production management [5] - The selling expense ratio decreased by 2 percentage points to 21.62%, and the management expense ratio also decreased by 2 percentage points to 7.55% [5] Product and Market Expansion - Revenue from red date products and health preservation products decreased by 16% and 26% respectively, but the gross margin for red date products increased by 8 percentage points to 34.60% [6] - The company is building a diversified product matrix around its core positioning as a "red date expert," with significant growth in its flagship product, Hong Xiaopai [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.02, 0.17, and 0.27 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 445, 62, and 39 times [8]

证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程月报 成长红利均衡配置， 关注大盘补涨机会 ——9月风格轮动观点 报告日期：2025年8月27日 n 分析师：吕思江 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 0 1 多 维 量 化 轮 动 模 型 ： 成 长 红 利 均 衡 配 置 1.1 本月观点：成长红利均衡配置 | 业绩统计 | 创业板指 | 中证红利全收益 | 基准:等权配置 | 轮动策略 | 轮动策略/基准 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 累计收益 | -1.16% | 98.21% | 48.30% | 348.20% | 199.36% | | 年化收益 | -0.12% | 7.57% | 4.29% | 17.35% | 12.41% | | 最大回撤 | 57.05% | 27.08% | 35.22% | 27.08% | 13.16% | | 年化波动率 | 28.32% | 17.60% | 20.76% | 23.14% | 11.00% | | 年化sharpe | 0.00 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the zipper and button industry, with a dual growth strategy focusing on both segments. It is expected to achieve steady growth and increase its market share, particularly in the international market [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Short-term Demand and Policy Disturbances - The company faces short-term pressures due to relatively weak domestic demand and potential impacts from tariff policies. However, it demonstrates resilience in order growth despite external fluctuations [13][14]. - Long-term growth is supported by the dual growth of zippers and buttons, with robust profitability expected [15]. Zipper Industry - The global zipper market is valued at approximately 120.9 billion RMB, with a projected CAGR of 3.5% until 2030. The company is gaining market share from competitors like YKK due to operational disruptions faced by them [23][27]. - The company has seen significant growth in overseas revenue, with a CAGR of 16.4% from 2015 to 2024, outpacing domestic growth [4][16]. Button Industry - China is the leading exporter of buttons, with the market size expected to grow from 280 billion RMB in 2022 to 313 billion RMB by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 3.95% [36]. - The company holds a 15%-20% market share in the domestic high-end button market, benefiting from a strong design and rapid response capability [37][38]. Company Development - The company has undergone significant transformation, evolving from a button manufacturer to a comprehensive supplier of garment accessories. It has established a global presence with production facilities in Southeast Asia [43][46]. - The corporate culture emphasizes alignment of goals across all levels, supported by a stable shareholding structure and successful stock incentive plans [47][48]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 50.07 billion RMB, 55.96 billion RMB, and 62.56 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.64, 0.70, and 0.78 RMB. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17.2, 15.6, and 14.1 for the respective years [6][54].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [8]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from dual growth drivers in maintenance and overseas business, with a significant increase in orders solidifying growth momentum in its core rail transit business [4]. - The electrification upgrade opens up new growth opportunities in the components business, accelerating the formation of a second growth pillar [5][6]. - Original technology and smart manufacturing enhance the efficiency across the entire value chain, with potential for profit elasticity to be realized [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.017 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 155 million yuan, up 41.74% [3]. - The company forecasts revenues of 4.865 billion yuan, 5.891 billion yuan, and 7.010 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.58, 0.73, and 0.90 yuan [8][10]. Business Drivers - The "Transportation Power" strategy is driving the rail transit industry into a new phase of stock updates and overseas expansion, with the company winning significant maintenance contracts and expanding into new business models [4]. - The company has secured overseas contracts worth 1.011 billion yuan in 2024, a 50.9% increase year-on-year, contributing to a total order backlog of 7.302 billion yuan [4]. Technological Advancements - The company leverages its national-level technology center and smart factory to build competitive barriers through original technology and smart manufacturing [7]. - It holds 1,344 valid patents and has developed key technologies that enhance its product offerings in the rail transit sector [7]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the company's core rail transit maintenance and overseas business, alongside the expansion of its new energy component business, leading to a diversified business structure and improved growth expectations [5][6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong performance in its AI business, particularly in the industrial AI sector, with significant revenue growth driven by AI products and services [5][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 738 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.91%, and a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 18.75% year-on-year [5]. - The company is strategically optimizing its business structure by reallocating resources towards high-margin AI products and reducing investment in less efficient areas [6][7]. - The company is focusing on the "AI + Industry" approach, enhancing its market promotion efforts and developing benchmark cases to drive the adoption of AI solutions [7][8]. - The company forecasts revenues of 1.768 billion yuan, 2.084 billion yuan, and 2.439 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06 yuan, 1.30 yuan, and 1.55 yuan [9]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 401 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.99%, and a net profit of 62 million yuan, up 64.64% year-on-year [5]. - The company's AI product and service revenue reached 211 million yuan in H1 2025, marking a substantial growth of 145.60% year-on-year [5]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was reported at 52.40%, an increase of 4.22 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 21.48%, up 4.13 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Strategic Focus - The company is committed to enhancing its AI product development capabilities, focusing on the integration of AI with self-developed industrial software [6][7]. - The company is actively developing new features for its AI products, aiming to provide flexible and efficient digital solutions for both new and existing customers [8].