Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2][8]. Core Insights - The release of Optimus Gen3 is anticipated in Q1 2026, with mass production expected to begin by the end of 2026, aiming for an annual capacity of 1 million units. This development positions Tesla favorably in the humanoid robot market, potentially outperforming existing competitors in China [4]. - The humanoid robot sector is seen as entering a new growth phase, with significant investment opportunities arising from the performance of Optimus Gen3 exceeding expectations [5]. - SpaceX plans to deploy up to 1 million satellites to create a "orbital data center" network, enhancing capabilities for advanced AI models and applications [6]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Sector - The Huaxin humanoid robot index fell by 7.97% this week, with a cumulative return of 111.5% since 2025. The trading volume of the humanoid robot sector accounted for 22.9% of the CSI 2000 index, indicating a high level of market activity [17]. - Among the sub-sectors, sensors performed relatively well, while components like actuators and dexterous hands saw declines of 9.0% and 8.9% respectively [21]. - Notable stocks in the humanoid robot sector include Tianqi Co., which rose by 19.5%, and Sanxiang New Materials, which increased by 9.0% [25]. Automotive Sector - The CITIC automotive index decreased by 5.1%, underperforming the broader market by 5.2 percentage points [33]. - Within the automotive sub-sectors, commercial vehicles showed better performance, with passenger vehicles down by 3.6% and automotive parts down by 6.7% [36]. - Key companies in the automotive sector that performed well include Xishanghai, which rose by 13.3%, and Shangchai Co., which increased by 13.0% [41]. Company Performance and Forecasts - The report highlights several companies with strong earnings forecasts, including: - Modu Technology, with an EPS forecast of 0.68 for 2024 and a "Buy" rating [10]. - Shuanglin Co., with an EPS forecast of 1.24 for 2024 and a "Buy" rating [10]. - New Spring Co., with an EPS forecast of 2.00 for 2024 and a "Buy" rating [12]. - The automotive sector's PE ratio is at 32.7, placing it in the 41.3% percentile over the past four years, indicating a relatively favorable valuation [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The analysts are optimistic about the equity market in February with a balanced style, while the bond market has an increased risk of adjustment [2][7]. - The marginal expansion of the real - sector balance sheet in February is highly certain, and the probability of a significant tightening of the capital market is low [2]. - In the context of the marginal convergence of the national balance sheet, the top - down subjective allocation strategy focusing on position selection and style analysis will gain more attention and favor from the market [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National Asset - Liability Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In December 2025, the real - sector liability growth rate was 8.4% (previous value 8.6%). It is expected to drop to around 8.3% in January 2026, rebound slightly in February, and decline in March. The capital market tightened marginally last week. There is a risk of significant tightening in February, but the probability is not high [2][17]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The net increase of government bonds last week was 235.3 billion yuan (higher than the planned 141.3 billion yuan), and the planned net increase next week is 721.4 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of December 2025 was 12.4% (previous value 13.1%), expected to rebound to around 12.6% in January 2026 and likely decline in February [3][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the average weekly trading volume of funds decreased, the price increased, and the term spread narrowed. The one - year Treasury bond yield ended at 1.30% on the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%, and there may be a 10 - basis - point interest rate cut in 2026. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 51 basis points [3][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in December 2025 continued to run smoothly compared to November. The full - year real economic growth target in 2025 was around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target was around 4.9%. It needs further observation whether 5% will be the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Since 2011, China has been in a downward cycle of potential economic growth, which may have ended in Q4 2024, followed by a low - level narrow - range oscillation in the profit cycle. The government put forward three policy goals in 2016: stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio, financial institutions benefiting the real economy, and "housing is for living in, not for speculation." Currently, the convergence of the liability side has not ended, but the space is limited [6][20]. - Last week, the capital market tightened marginally, the overall equity market declined, but value stocks strengthened. The long - end bond yield decreased slightly, and the short - end increased. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness slightly favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81%, the one - year increased by 2 basis points to 1.30%, and the 30 - year remained stable at 2.29% [7][21]. - In February, the analysts are optimistic about the equity market with a balanced style and believe that the bond market has little investment value. They recommend a 50% position in the Shanghai Composite 50 Index and a 50% position in the China Securities 1000 Index [7][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.09%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, automobiles, computers, and comprehensive industries had the largest declines [30]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding - out and Trading Volume - As of January 30, the top five crowded industries were electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, and communication, with crowding - out degrees of 15.9%, 10.3%, 9%, 6.4%, and 6.2% respectively. The bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, social services, environmental protection, and steel, with 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.9% respectively [31]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding - out were non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverage, media, and communication. The top five with decreased crowding - out were power equipment, national defense and military industry, electronics, automobiles, and machinery [31]. - As of January 30, non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics had relatively high crowding - out quantiles since 2018, while pharmaceutical biology, transportation, light industry manufacturing, beauty care, and non - bank finance had relatively low quantiles [31]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 3.06 trillion yuan, up from 2.8 trillion yuan last week. Petroleum and petrochemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, coal, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume, while national defense and military industry, automobiles, household appliances, commercial retail, and power equipment had the largest declines [33]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE(TTM) of petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, coal, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverage had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, computers, automobiles, and comprehensive industries had the largest declines [37]. - As of January 30, 2026, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, power, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [38]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - **External Demand**: It showed mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.5 in December to 50.4, and most of the disclosed PMI data of economies in January increased. The CCFI index fell 2.74% week - on - week. Port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 13.4% in December and 33.9% in January. Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 15.8% in November to 23.9% in December [42]. - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price increased last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries declined from September to October 2025, increased from November to December, and slightly declined in January. Automobile sales were weaker than the historical seasonality, new - home sales remained at the historical low, and second - hand home sales were stronger than the historical seasonality [42]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of January (January 26 - 30), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% quantiles of weekly returns were 2.3%, 1.1%, 0.4%, and - 0.6% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 0.08% [59]. - As of January 30, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 4.04 trillion yuan, up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bona Film Group (001330.SZ) [2][10] Core Insights - The company is expected to face challenges in 2025 due to underperforming box office results and asset impairment losses, leading to a projected net loss of 12.61 to 14.77 billion yuan [5][6] - Anticipation for new content releases in 2026, including films like "Flying Life 3" and others, is expected to contribute positively to the company's performance [7] - The integration of AI in film production is a key focus, with initiatives such as the development of AI-native films and AI tools for creative collaboration [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The current stock price is 9.6 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 132 billion yuan and a 52-week price range of 4.04 to 13.35 yuan [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.95 billion, 20.50 billion, and 21.00 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be -13.91 billion, 2.16 billion, and 2.82 billion yuan [10][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be -1.01, 0.16, and 0.20 yuan for the same years [10] Business Operations - The company's main business segments include film production, cinema operations, and series production, with a focus on enhancing profitability in cinema operations [6] - The company plans to increase its investment in high-quality IP development and resource integration to strengthen its market position [7]

市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 芒果超媒 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 2026 年 02 月 02 日 看芒果大模型 AI 赋能主业 小芒电商迎盈利拐点 —芒果超媒（300413.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：朱珠 S1050521110001 zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2026-01-30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 25.47 | | 总市值（亿元） | 476 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1871 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1022 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 21.13-35.76 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 511.71 | 芒果超媒发布 2025 年公司业绩预告公告：2025 年公司归母 净利润 11~14 亿元，同比-19.38%~+2.61%，扣非净利润 8.7~11 亿元（同比-47.11%~-33.12%）。 投资要点 ▌ 2025 年小芒电商迎盈利拐点 芒果 TV 会员 7560 万 内容端，2025 年芒果持续加码优质内容，影视剧 ...

2026 年 01 月 30 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：50 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-29 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-28 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-27 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 50 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 策略深度报告 黄金大涨的背后: 美元信用周期的终结与黄金定价权的重塑 报告日期： 2026年01月29日 ◼ 分析师：杨芹芹 ◼ SAC编号：S1050523040001 ◼ 分析师：孙航 ◼ SAC编号：S1050525050001 投 资 要 点 核心观点：黄金传统研究框架对本轮黄金大涨的解释力十分有限，主要是短期美元指数走低和中长期美元信用替代逻辑的叠加，市场情绪和动 量资金驱动。随着美元信用裂缝的扩大，黄金中长期上涨的逻辑在强化。但由于长期逻辑短期化交易较为极致，黄金投资盘多头回落、实业盘 空头较低，PCR处于历史底部，短期黄金市场 "裸多"风险值得警惕。特别是在白银"空头拥挤+高波动率+高持仓"的背景下，白银高位回 落拖累黄金的概率在提升。 传统框架崩塌：过去美元、实际利率和风险定价的黄金研究框架解释力显著减弱。非框架因素解释贡献再度创新高。从大宗商品联动角度来看， 金油比阶段性失效，仅有铜保持一定的正贡献，比特币则是受限于流动性，出现了短期贡献的走弱。 中长期的新驱动力：去美元化与央行购金。非美国家持有的黄金价值已超过美债价值，显示出对美元信用的不信任的共识已经形成。非美央 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8] Core Insights - The company aims to build an IP matrix driven by quality content, focusing on a "youth-oriented" strategy to enhance commercial value through IP operations [2] - The company is strategically positioned in niche markets, with potential growth in card games, building blocks, and plush toys, benefiting from collaborations with major brands [3] - The integration of AI with IP is a key focus, with the launch of AI-powered plush toys showcasing the company's innovative capabilities [4] - Profit forecasts indicate a recovery trajectory, with expected revenues of 28.70 billion and 30.74 billion for 2026 and 2027 respectively, alongside a return to profitability [5][10] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated as "Buy" [1][8] Business Strategy - The company emphasizes high-quality content as a critical factor for success across different market cycles, establishing a comprehensive IP matrix that caters to various age groups [2] - The focus on young consumers is evident, with initiatives aimed at activating engagement and expanding the fan base [2] Market Positioning - The company is actively participating in the trendy toy market through its "Unlimited Play" brand strategy, collaborating with notable companies to launch popular products [3] Technological Integration - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its product offerings, including the introduction of AI companion plush toys, which reflects its adaptive supply chain capabilities [4] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 are set at 28.70 billion and 30.74 billion respectively, with net profits expected to reach 1.46 billion and 2.01 billion [5][10]

2026 年 01 月 29 日 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-28 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-27 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-26 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 67 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：67 分（较热） ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8] Core Insights - The company aims to leverage high-quality content as a key driver for its IP matrix, focusing on a "youth-oriented" strategy to enhance commercial value and engage younger audiences [2][4] - The company is strategically positioned in niche markets, with plans to expand its product offerings in card games, building blocks, and plush toys, benefiting from collaborations with major brands [3][4] - The integration of AI technology is expected to enhance the company's IP expressions and product offerings, exemplified by the launch of AI-powered plush toys [4][8] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 2.87 billion and 3.07 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 146 million and 201 million yuan [5][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.10 yuan in 2026 and 0.14 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 91.3 and 66.2 [5][10] - The company anticipates a significant recovery in net profit, with a growth rate of 116.4% in 2026 and 37.9% in 2027 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is focusing on the transformation of traditional cultural IP through immersive consumption scenarios and diversified business models to drive revenue growth, despite facing losses in net profit due to rigid labor and operational costs in 2025 [4] - The company has established strategic partnerships with leading technology firms to enhance its AI and 3D strategy, aiming to integrate culture, technology, and consumption [5] - The company is expected to enter a new phase in 2026, leveraging technological advancements to create digital experience spaces and interactive IP-themed experiences, thus upgrading the industry from traditional displays to immersive and intelligent experiences [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 15.25 billion, 18.14 billion, and 21.60 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.04, 0.27, and 0.36 yuan [7] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of -0.26 billion, 1.63 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a significant recovery and growth trajectory [10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of -208.8 for 2025, 33.4 for 2026, and 25.6 for 2027, reflecting the company's position as a leading player in the digital entrepreneurship sector [7][10]