证 券 研 究 报 告 策略深度报告 居民存款入市：A股主升的增量资金主力 报告日期： 2025年08月29日 ◼ 分析师：杨芹芹 ◼ SAC编号：S1050523040001 ◼ 联系人：卫正 ◼ SAC编号：S1050124080020 投 资 要 点 核心结论： A股牛市多经历起步（普涨，政策利好和低估低配）- 整固（分化，价值蓝筹）-主升（上攻，科技成长+战略主题）- 赶顶（突破，题材泡沫+消费）四个阶段。 随着7月宏观顺风回归，M1回升，M2-M1剪刀差收窄，PPI触底回升，叠加A股近12月累计涨幅超过20%，居民存款加速入市，助力A股主升行情，期间债券震荡调整 。 预防性存款与债券独秀 2022/8-2024/8：债券配置行情，A股单边下行 宏观背景：经济相对走弱，PPI与M1双双走低，地产与股市承压 居民应对：提前还贷，预防性存款成为"主流"，资金"不转" 资产表现：债市开启配置行情，并逐步向类债资产扩散；股市单边下行，红利防御占优。 存款正常化与股债平衡 2024/9-2025/6：债券交易机会，A股震荡行情 宏观背景：经济震荡回稳，资金活跃度回升 居民应对：低利率 VS 资产荒的存款正常化 ...

2025 年 08 月 29 日 风电行业业绩高速增长，全球化与创新双轮巩固 行业地位 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：尤少炜 S1050525030002 yousw@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-08-28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 36.73 | | 总市值（亿元） | 78 | | 总股本（百万股） | 213 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 213 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 21.98-40.75 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 164.96 | 市场表现 相关研究 1、《中际联合（605305）：深耕高 空安全设备，推动多领域拓展》 2024-05-16 2、《中际联合（605305）：深耕高 空安全作业设备，多元化发展打开 增长空间》2024-02-02 2025 年上半年，风电行业在"十四五"收官之年迎来高速发 展，全球新增风电装机容量达 117GW，中国风电累计并网容量 同比增长 22.7%。国家能源局发布《电力系统调节能力优化专 项行动实施方案》，推动新能源上网电价全面市场化。中际联 合深耕风电领域，其齿轮齿条升降机、双机联动登塔 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that NVIDIA continues to experience rapid revenue and profit growth, driven by its leadership in AI infrastructure and diverse business segments [9]. - The data center business is a significant contributor, accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue, with a total revenue of $46.7 billion, representing a 56% year-over-year increase [4][9]. - The report emphasizes NVIDIA's strategic collaborations and product innovations, particularly in AI and gaming sectors, which are expected to enhance its market position [9]. Revenue and Profit Performance - Total revenue for the second quarter reached $46.7 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 56% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 6% [4]. - Data center revenue was $41.1 billion, while gaming revenue was $4.3 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 49% [4]. - The GAAP gross margin was 72.4%, with a net profit of $26.4 billion, reflecting a 59% year-over-year increase [4][9]. Customer and Ecosystem Expansion - NVIDIA has expanded its customer base, deploying its RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell Server Edition with major companies like Disney and TSMC [4][6]. - The company is also enhancing its strategic partnerships in Europe to build AI cloud infrastructure aimed at industrial manufacturing [4][6]. Product and Technology Matrix - The Blackwell architecture has led to the launch of new products, including the GeForce RTX 5060, which achieved record shipping speeds [7]. - NVIDIA's DLSS 4 technology is now available in over 175 games and applications, indicating broad market penetration [7]. AI Empowerment - AI is identified as a core driver of NVIDIA's strategy, with significant advancements in training and inference capabilities [8]. - The company has collaborated with OpenAI to support the gpt-oss model, showcasing its commitment to AI innovation [8].

2025 年 08 月 29 日 合作引进，加码创新药研发 买入(首次) 事件 分析师：胡博新 S1050522120002 hubx@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-08-28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 49.5 | | 总市值（亿元） | 100 | | 总股本（百万股） | 202 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 185 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 12.26-64.7 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 234.23 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 (%) 昂利康 沪深300 相关研究 —昂利康（002940.SZ）公司事件点评报告 昂利康发布公告：2025 年上半年，公司实现营业总收入 72435.50 万元，同比下降 14.52%；归属于上市公司股东的净 利润 6592.51 万元，同比下降 3.19%。 投资要点 ▌ 把握集采中选品种机遇 公司复方α-酮酸片和合作产品艾地骨化醇软胶囊于 2024 年 中选第十批国家集采，目前已进入进院采购阶段，快速上 量。除参与国采之外， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in its half-year performance, with a revenue of 9.246 billion yuan, up 42.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.596 billion yuan, up 48.4% year-on-year [3][9] - The average gold price in the first half of 2025 increased significantly, contributing to the company's strong financial performance [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 92.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, and a net profit of 15.96 billion yuan, also up 48.4% [3][9] - Basic earnings per share reached 0.57 yuan, reflecting a growth of 48.4% year-on-year [3] Production and Sales - The company's gold production in the first half of 2025 was 3.72 tons, a decrease of 10.58% year-on-year, while silver production was 61.83 tons, down 24.82% [4] - Gold sales reached 4.12 tons, a decline of 6.58% year-on-year, while silver sales increased by 9.93% to 81.49 tons [4] Market Conditions - The average gold price in the Shanghai Gold Exchange for the first half of 2025 was 720 yuan per gram, up 38.27% from the same period in 2024 [5] - The company's cost of gold production was 150.96 yuan per gram, a slight increase of 3.02% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [5] Future Outlook - The company is set to begin construction on its Osino gold project in Namibia in Q4 2025, with production expected to start in the first half of 2027 [6] - The company completed the acquisition of a 52.07% stake in Yunnan Western Mining, enhancing its resource reserves [6][8] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 109.99 billion yuan, 125.05 billion yuan, and 140.53 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 32.87 billion yuan, 40.53 billion yuan, and 48.23 billion yuan [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company's main business remains stable, with a slight revenue increase of 2.23% year-on-year, achieving revenue of 1.651 billion yuan in the first half of 2025. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.96% to 567 million yuan [1][2] - The company is focusing on investor returns by implementing a high cash dividend policy, distributing a total of approximately 631 million yuan in dividends in 2024, which accounts for 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3] - The company is investing in innovative drug companies to create new growth curves, with a planned investment of 60 million USD in Accuredit Therapeutics Limited, acquiring a 40.82% stake [4] Summary by Sections Main Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.651 billion yuan, with the main product, New Active Substance, selling 4.17 million units and generating revenue of 1.456 billion yuan, accounting for 88.36% of total revenue, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%. Other products generated revenue of 192 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.83% [2] Cash Dividend Policy - The company has actively implemented stable cash dividend measures, with a proposed cash dividend of 8.81 yuan per 10 shares for the first half of 2025, which represents 50.05% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for that period [3] Investment in Innovative Drugs - The company announced an investment of 60 million USD in Accuredit Therapeutics Limited, acquiring a 40.82% stake. The core asset of Accuredit is Suzhou Rui Zheng Gene, which is the first company in China to enter clinical research for in vivo gene editing products based on LNP [4][8] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.923 billion yuan, 3.157 billion yuan, and 3.463 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 893 million yuan, 967 million yuan, and 1.066 billion yuan for the same years [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to leverage the AI era to drive growth, transitioning from traditional media to a digital cultural service provider, supported by its unique resources and partnerships [3][7]. - The company's main business segments, including smart broadcasting and cultural consumption, show resilience against economic fluctuations, with a stable revenue base [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.376 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.65% to 344 million yuan [2]. - The revenue breakdown for the main business segments includes smart broadcasting at 2.32 billion yuan (up 8.15%), cultural consumption at 960 million yuan (down 7.53%), and other businesses at 90 million yuan (down 20.58%) [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan per 10 shares for 2025 [2]. Growth Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.813 billion yuan, 7.970 billion yuan, and 8.217 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 735 million yuan, 805 million yuan, and 879 million yuan [9][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.22 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.26 yuan for the same period [9][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating its digital transformation by building generative AI platforms and collaborating with leading AI firms to enhance personalized services [3][4]. - It aims to integrate online and offline experiences, promoting cultural tourism and leveraging its iconic cultural resources in Shanghai [6][4].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 84, categorizing it as "overheated," suggesting a high level of investor optimism and potential market risks [6][9][21] - Key themes identified include robotics, GPU technology, and rare earth materials, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment opportunities [6][10][13] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment temperature indicator shows a score of 84, indicating an "overheated" market, which typically suggests caution for investors as high sentiment can lead to market corrections [6][9][21] - Historical trends indicate that when sentiment is below or near 50, the market tends to find support, while levels above 90 may present resistance [9] Hot Themes Tracking - **Robotics**: Nvidia is set to launch a new "brain" for robots, with related stocks including Wolong Electric Drive (600580) and Changsheng Bearing (300718) [6] - **GPU Technology**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the need for improved computing power infrastructure, with companies like Loongson Technology (688047) and Jingjia Micro (300474) being relevant [6] - **Rare Earth Materials**: Recent discussions in Shenzhen aim to integrate rare earth materials with low-altitude economy and robotics, highlighting companies such as Northern Rare Earth (600111) and Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals (600259) [6] Capital Flow Analysis - The report lists the top net inflows for stocks, with China Rare Earth (181,321.24 million) and Shenghong Technology (151,200.37 million) leading the way, indicating strong investor interest [10] - Conversely, significant net outflows were observed in stocks like BYD (-116,175.65 million) and CATL (-104,285.85 million), suggesting a shift in investor sentiment away from these companies [14] Industry Overview - The report highlights the electronics and communication sectors as receiving substantial net inflows, while industries such as pharmaceuticals and automotive are experiencing notable outflows [20][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9] Core Views - The company is focusing on the development of three major industries and is making steady progress on key projects [1][7] - Despite a decline in the sales prices of major products leading to a year-on-year profit decrease, the company continues to push forward with significant projects [5][9] - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast for 2025 due to the decline in product prices but remains optimistic about ongoing project developments [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The current stock price is 11.09 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 8.7 billion yuan and a total share capital of 782 million shares [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.358 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 344 million yuan, down 28.51% year-on-year [4][5] - The average price of salt products decreased by 12.8%, while the average price of alkali products fell by 35.29% in the first half of 2025 [5] Research and Development - The company has seen an increase in R&D expenses, with the R&D expense ratio rising due to increased investment in research [6] Project Development - The company has made progress on 11 key projects, completing 58% of its annual investment plan in the first half of 2025 [7] - Significant projects include the completion of the Zhangxing gas storage project and the establishment of a helium storage project [7][8] Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 733 million yuan, 853 million yuan, and 1.014 billion yuan, respectively [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 76.04 billion yuan for H1 2025, a 1% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16% to 6.76 billion yuan [1] - The gross margin pressure is attributed to rising costs of raw materials, particularly for crayfish and fish paste, alongside increased manufacturing costs and promotional efforts [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing product development efficiency and has launched a new series of meat products targeting both consumer and business markets, which is expected to improve profitability [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, total revenue reached 40.05 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 23% to 2.81 billion yuan [1] - The gross margin in Q2 2025 fell by 3 percentage points to 18.00% due to increased costs [2] Product Development and Sales Channels - The company continues to see growth in its fresh-keeping packaging segment, while the frozen prepared foods segment reported a revenue of 17.50 billion yuan, a 1% decrease [3] - The company has introduced a new series of meat products aimed at the consumer market, which is expected to enhance profitability [3] Distribution and Market Strategy - Revenue from distribution channels in Q2 2025 was 31.34 billion yuan, a 2% increase, with significant contributions from major distributors [4] - The company is strengthening its partnerships with large supermarkets and enhancing customized product offerings to drive demand recovery [4] Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 4.33, 4.76, and 5.33 yuan respectively, maintaining a positive outlook on the company's profitability recovery as raw material costs stabilize [9]