2025 年 09 月 09 日 产品涨价叠加产能扩张拉动营收增长，磷矿产业 链一体化布局持续推进 —川恒股份（002895.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 川恒股份发布 2025 年半年度业绩报告：2025 年公司上半年 实现营业总收入 33.60 亿元，同比上涨 35.28%；实现归母净 利润 5.36 亿元，同比上涨 51.54%。其中，公司 2025Q2 单季 度实现营业收入 18.67 亿元，同比上涨 29.63%，环比增长 25.06%；实现归母净利润 3.34 亿元，同比上涨 52.48%，环 比上涨 65.34%。 投资要点 ▌磷矿石供应紧张叠加产能释放拉动整体业绩 公司 2025 上半年整体营收同比大幅上涨，主要归功于核心产 品价格上升和子公司产能释放双重因素叠加。产品价格方 面，在我国磷矿石整体品位下降、环保压力增加的背景下， 公司主要产品原料磷矿石市场供应紧张，预计后市磷矿石价 格维持高位运行，拉动公司主要产品涨价。上半年公司核心 产品磷酸二氢钙和磷酸一铵均价分别为 4405 元/3212 元，同 比分别增长 22.16%/5.13%。公司拥有多家上游磷矿，占据稀 缺性资源， ...

2025 年 09 月 09 日 纯 MDI 、百草枯等涨幅居前，建议关注进口替 代、纯内需、高股息等方向 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：高铭谦 S1050124080006 gaomq@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) 8.1 17.5 51.1 沪深 300 8.8 15.0 39.9 市场表现 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 本周跌幅较大的产品：煤焦油（江苏工厂，-6.76%），硝酸 铵（工业）（华北地区山东联合，-5.56%），工业级碳酸锂 （四川 99.0%min ， -5.26% ） ， 电 池 级 碳 酸 锂 （ 新 疆 99.5%min，-5.18%），TDI（华东，-4.14%），PTA（华东，- 3.35%），三聚氰胺（中原大化，-2.65%），PX（CFR 东南 亚，-2.47%），DMF（华东，-2.40%），甲苯（FOB 韩国，- 2.35%）。 ▌ 本周观点：美俄谈判未见成效，俄乌冲突局势不明 ...

2025 年 09 月 09 日 业绩企稳回升，加盟拓展顺利 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-09-08 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 15.53 | | 总市值（亿元） | 138 | | 总股本（百万股） | 889 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 867 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 4.36-17.39 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 331.95 | 市场表现 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 (%) 潮宏基 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《潮宏基（002345）：终端销售 逆势高增，门店扩张稳步推进》 2025-08-07 —潮宏基（002345.SZ）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 8 月 21 日，潮宏基发布 2025 年半年报。2025H1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved, driven by a dual-channel strategy in product distribution [1] - The company has successfully turned losses into profits, with a notable increase in gross margin and net profit margin [5] - The embedded gold segment has shown remarkable growth, becoming a new engine for revenue increase [6] - The franchise business is strong, with ambitious targets for high-performing stores [7] - The company is positioned for continued growth with a focus on "collectible art gold" and brand upgrades [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, total revenue reached 870 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37%, with a net profit of 61 million yuan compared to a loss of 37 million yuan in H1 2024 [4] - The gross margin increased by 5 percentage points to 32.37% in Q2 2025, while the net profit margin rose by 11 percentage points to 6.44% [5] Product and Channel Analysis - Revenue from embedded diamonds, jade, traditional gold, and other products in H1 2025 showed varied growth, with embedded gold revenue increasing by 200% [6] - The company’s revenue from direct sales, franchises, and online channels grew by 47%, 109%, and 1% respectively in H1 2025 [7] Growth Forecast - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.24, 0.39, and 0.52 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 51, 31, and 23 times [8] - Projected main business revenue for 2025 is 2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 63.6% [10]

Investment Rating - The report recommends an investment rating for the psoriasis treatment industry, highlighting the potential for growth and innovation in this sector [2]. Core Insights - Psoriasis is a chronic, relapsing inflammatory skin disease with a significant unmet treatment need, as it currently cannot be cured. The global market for psoriasis treatment was valued at $26.5 billion in 2022, with the Chinese market growing rapidly from $604 million in 2018 to $1.436 billion in 2022, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.2% [3][43]. - The report emphasizes the increasing importance of biologics and oral targeted therapies, particularly focusing on IL-17 and IL-23 as key therapeutic targets, which are expected to drive future market growth [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Large Patient Population and Rapid Market Growth - There are approximately 125 million psoriasis patients globally, with around 6.7 million in China. The market for psoriasis treatment is projected to continue expanding, with the Chinese market expected to reach $9.944 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 27.4% from 2022 to 2030 [3][43]. 2. Biologics as Mainstream Treatment - Biologics are recognized as the leading treatment option for moderate to severe psoriasis, with ongoing advancements improving their efficacy and safety. The report notes that the penetration rate of biologics in China remains low, indicating significant growth potential [4][10]. 3. Oral Small Molecules as New Options - Oral therapies, particularly those targeting TYK2, are highlighted as having the best efficacy among currently available oral medications. The report suggests that these therapies could fill the treatment gap between topical treatments and biologics, offering a more convenient option for patients [6][7][10]. 4. New Oral Peptide Drugs Expected to Launch - The report anticipates the approval of new oral peptide drugs, specifically IL-23 antagonists, which are expected to enhance the treatment landscape for psoriasis significantly [8][10]. 5. Investment Recommendations and Related Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong efficacy, safety, and rapid development timelines in the psoriasis treatment space. Notable companies include: - Yifang Biotechnology (688382.SH) for its promising TYK2 small molecule - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692.HK) and Innovent Biologics (688428.SH) for their rapid clinical progress - Lijun Group (000513.SZ) and Qianxin Biologics (2509.HK) for their strong biologics pipeline [10][11].

2025 年 09 月 09 日 清华等机构开源强化学习框架 RLinf，字节发布 原生 GUI 智能体 UI-TARS-2 —计算机行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：任春阳 | S1050521110006 | | --- | --- | | rency@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机(申万) | 7.7 | 15.8 | 89.1 | | 沪深 300 | 8.8 | 15.0 | 39.9 | 市场表现 相关研究 1、《Shopify（SHOP.O）：双业务 驱动营收高增，AI 与全球化战略打 开长期发展空间》2025-09-04 2、《计算机行业点评报告：禾赛科 技（HSAI.O）：ADAS 驱动增长，机 器人与定点合作增强动能》2025- 09-04 3、《计算机行业周报：谷歌发布图 像模型 Gemini2.5FlashImage，元石 科技发布旗舰模型问小白 5》2025- 09-02 ▌AI 融资动向： Attio 完成 5200 万美元 B 轮融资， 以 AI ...

2025 年 09 月 09 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：82 分（过热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（过热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 82 分，市场情绪处于"过热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：机器人、生物医药、国产芯片 c 1、机器人主题：9 月 2 日，特斯拉正式发布其"宏图计划" 第四篇章(简称"宏图 4")的完整文件。相比前三篇章更多 着墨于新能源汽车以及可持续能源生态系统，此次文件关于 AI 和机器人内容占比明显提高。值得一提的是，就在"宏图 4"发布之际，马斯克重申了机器人业务在特斯拉的战略地 位。他表示，FSD 和 Optimus 的规模化将是最为重要的事 项，因为未来特斯拉约 80%的价值将来自 Optimus 机器人。 相关标的：卧龙电驱（600580）、长盛轴承（300718） 2、生物医药主题：国务院国资委 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9]. Core Views - The company is driving growth through innovation and collaboration across its entire industry chain, achieving significant increases in market share and net profit [5][8]. - The company has successfully integrated its resources across multiple sectors, leading to a strong performance in modified plastics, green petrochemicals, new materials, and healthcare segments [5][8]. - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain and is advancing in key areas such as biodegradable plastics and specialty engineering plastics, showcasing strong industry competitiveness [8]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 316.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.85 billion yuan, up 54.12% [4]. - The modified plastics segment saw a sales volume of 1.3088 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.74%, with revenue of 164.73 billion yuan, up 18.62% [5]. - The green petrochemical segment reported revenue of 59.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.23% [5]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company has reduced its period expenses, with significant decreases in financial costs due to the conversion of certain liabilities into equity [6]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 10.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.06%, while net cash flow from financing activities increased by 12.45 billion yuan [6]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 14.15 billion yuan, 18.56 billion yuan, and 22.87 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30.8, 23.4, and 19.0 [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company, as a leading producer of polyester filament, is experiencing a recovery in profitability and is accelerating its full-chain layout [5][7] - Despite a decline in revenue, the company has shown improvements in operational cash flow management [6] - The company is implementing an integrated strategy, expanding its operations into upstream sectors such as PTA and coal mining [7][8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 441.58 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.97 billion yuan, an increase of 2.93% [4] Production and Sales - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 486.96 million tons of POY, 108.77 million tons of FDY, 58.56 million tons of DTY, and 76.75 million tons of PTA, with sales figures closely matching production [5] Financial Performance - The average selling prices for POY, FDY, DTY, and PTA decreased by 10%, 16%, 9%, and 19% respectively, impacting revenue [5] - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -3 billion yuan, a notable reduction from -18.62 billion yuan in the previous year [6] Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its "four modernizations" strategy, focusing on integration, scale, intensification, and differentiation, and has successfully acquired high-quality coal resources in Turpan [7][8] Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.60 billion yuan, 30.91 billion yuan, and 37.89 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.3, 11.4, and 9.3 [9]

2025 年 09 月 08 日 乘用车涂料业务高增，多维布局构建增长新动能 —松井股份（688157.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 松井股份发布 2025 年半年度业绩报告：2025 年公司上半年 实现营业总收入 3.48 亿元，同比增长 7.48%；实现归母净利 润 0.12 亿元，同比下降 69.84%。其中，公司 2025Q2 单季度 实现营业收入 1.94 亿元，同比增长 3.35%，环比增长 26.97%；实现归母净利润 0.08 亿元，同比下降 70.40%，环 比增长 122.72%。 投资要点 ▌乘用车涂料业务营收翻倍增长，盈利能力承压 松井股份是国内少数在细分领域具备与国际品牌直接竞争能 力并成功实现产品国产化替代的企业之一。2025 年上半年， 公司乘用车领域业务表现尤为突出，实现营业收入 0.98 亿 元，同比增长 109.6%，占整体营业收入比重较上年同期提升 13.71 个百分点，达到 28.15%。在主业高端消费电子领域， 公司上半年实现营业收入 2.44 亿元。公司产品体系主要包括 涂料、油墨和胶粘剂三大类别。报告期内，受产品结构与客 户结构调整影响，三大类产品的 ...