2025 年 04 月 17 日 磷矿构筑第二曲线，智慧农业转型开拓新空间 —芭田股份（002170.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(首次) 事件 芭田股份发布年度业绩报告：2024 年全年实现营业总收入 33.13 亿元，同比增长 2.15%；实现归母净利润 4.09 亿元，同 比增长57.67%。其中2024Q4单季度实现营业收入8.80亿元， 同比增长 20.71%，环比下滑 0.31%，实现归母净利润 2.05 亿 元，同比增长 199.92%，环比增长 278.12%。 投资要点 ▌核心主业韧性凸显，磷矿业务成长为第二曲线 作为国内首家复合肥行业上市公司，2024 年公司各业务条线 表现稳健。全年化肥制造/磷矿采选/新能源材料板块产量分 别为 77.15/140.03/0.32 万吨，销量分别为 76.63/99.82/ 0.07 万吨，营业收入分别达 26.02/7.06/0.05 亿元。复合肥 作为营收占比 76.60% 的支柱产品，虽营收同比下滑 7.41%， 但依托技术创新与市场布局维持了稳定的市场份额，彰显传 统业务强劲韧性。磷矿采选业务营收同比增长 81.62%，逐步 成长为公司业绩增长第 ...

2025 年 04 月 17 日 主业向好 以体验经济为支点撬动业务新增量可 期 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：朱珠 S1050521110001 zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-04-16 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 8.96 | | 总市值（亿元） | 53 | | 总股本（百万股） | 595 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 595 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 6.58-12.8 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 213.68 | 市场表现 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 风语筑 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 1、《风语筑（603466）：业绩预告 落地 2025 年体验经济新需求与新供 给有望助力主业修复》2025-01-18 2、《风语筑（603466）：主业在手 订单充沛静待经营拐点》2024-04- 25 3、《风语筑（603466）：2023 主业 修复喜人 2024 年有望再创佳绩》 2024-01-25 —风语筑（603466.SH）公司事件点评报告 上海风语筑文化科技 ...

2025 年 04 月 17 日 主业向好 以体验经济为支点撬动业务新增量可 期 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：朱珠 S1050521110001 zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-04-16 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 8.96 | | 总市值（亿元） | 53 | | 总股本（百万股） | 595 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 595 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 6.58-12.8 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 213.68 | 市场表现 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 风语筑 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《风语筑（603466）：业绩预告 落地 2025 年体验经济新需求与新供 给有望助力主业修复》2025-01-18 2、《风语筑（603466）：主业在手 订单充沛静待经营拐点》2024-04- 25 3、《风语筑（603466）：2023 主业 修复喜人 2024 年有望再创佳绩》 2024-01-25 —风语筑（603466.SH）公司事件点评报告 上海风语 ...

2025 年 04 月 17 日 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-04-16 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-04-15 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-04-14 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 35 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：35 分（较冷） 券 研 究 报 告 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：跨境支付、虚拟电厂、农业 c 1、跨境支付主题：关税政策增加了贸易的不确定性和成 本，企业需要更高效、稳定的支付系统来应对复杂的贸易环 境。CIPS 系统功能不断丰富，业务量稳步增长，网络覆盖的 广度和深度持续提升，能够为跨境贸易、投融资、金融市场 交易等各类型业务提供安全、高效、便捷的人民币跨境支付 服务。相关标的：跨境通（002640）、青岛金王（0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Dongpeng Beverage [2][10] Core Views - The company continues to deliver strong performance with revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 reaching 4.848 billion and 980 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 39.2% and 47.6% [6] - The decline in raw material prices has improved profitability, with gross margin and net margin at 44% and 20%, respectively, showing increases of 1.7 and 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company is expanding its product categories and geographic reach, with significant growth in its direct sales and online channels [8] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Q1 2025 total revenue and net profit were 4.848 billion and 980 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 39.2% and 47.6% [6] - Gross margin and net margin improved to 44% and 20%, with increases of 1.7 and 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Operating cash flow decreased by 26.5% year-on-year to 631 million yuan due to high pre-receivable bases and increased tax payments [6] Product Performance - Revenue from energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages for Q1 2025 were 3.901 billion, 570 million, and 375 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 26%, 261%, and 73% respectively [7] - The main product, Dongpeng Special Drink, continues to grow rapidly, while the new product "Brew Water" is in a high-growth phase [7] Channel and Regional Growth - Revenue from distribution, direct sales, and online channels for Q1 2025 were 4.283 billion, 457 million, and 104 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 37%, 63%, and 54% respectively [8] - Revenue from the Guangxi and Guangdong regions and other regions reached 1.503 billion and 3.342 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 24% and 48% respectively [8] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to continue gaining market share in the energy drink sector, with electrolyte water becoming a second growth curve [10] - The EPS forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 8.67, 11.20, and 14.18 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 31, 24, and 19 times [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Dongpeng Beverage [2][10] Core Views - The company continues to deliver strong performance with revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 reaching 4.848 billion and 980 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 39.2% and 47.6% [6] - The decline in raw material prices has improved profitability, with gross margin and net margin at 44% and 20%, respectively, showing increases of 1.7 and 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company is expanding its product categories and geographic reach, with significant growth in its direct sales and online channels [8] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Q1 2025 total revenue and net profit were 4.848 billion and 980 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 39.2% and 47.6% [6] - Gross margin and net margin improved to 44% and 20%, with increases of 1.7 and 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Operating cash flow decreased by 26.5% year-on-year, totaling 631 million yuan [6] Product Performance - Revenue from energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages for Q1 2025 were 3.901 billion, 570 million, and 375 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 26%, 261%, and 73% respectively [7] - The main product, Dongpeng Special Drink, continues to grow rapidly, while the new product "Brew Water" is in a high-growth phase [7] Channel and Regional Growth - Revenue from distribution, direct sales, and online channels for Q1 2025 were 4.283 billion, 457 million, and 104 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 37%, 63%, and 54% respectively [8] - Revenue from the Guangxi and Guangdong regions and other regions were 1.503 billion and 3.342 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 24% and 48% respectively [8] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to continue increasing its market share in the energy drink sector, with electrolyte water becoming a second growth curve [10] - The EPS forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 8.67, 11.20, and 14.18 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 31, 24, and 19 times [10]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 52, categorized as "neutral," suggesting a balanced market environment [5][10][22] - Recent market trends show a gradual improvement in sentiment, with a potential upward trend supported by recent policies [10][22] - The report highlights three key themes: cross-border payments, virtual power plants, and agriculture, each with specific growth drivers and related companies [6][10] Group 2 - The cross-border payment theme is driven by increased trade uncertainties and costs, with the CIPS system expanding its capabilities to provide efficient payment solutions [6] - The virtual power plant sector is expected to see significant growth, with national targets set for capacity expansion to 20 million kilowatts by 2027 and 50 million kilowatts by 2030 [6] - The agriculture sector is focusing on self-innovation in seed technology, with government plans to enhance resource protection and establish world-class facilities [6] Group 3 - The report lists specific companies related to each theme: Cross-border payment companies include Cross-Border Communication (002640) and Qingdao Kingking (002094) [6] - Virtual power plant-related companies include Guoneng Rixin (301162) and Kehua Data (002335) [6] - Agriculture-related companies mentioned are Dabeinong (002385) and Fengle Seed Industry (000713) [6]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1][6]. Core Insights - The company has experienced significant growth in both revenue and net profit, with a total revenue of 21.61 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.95%, and a net profit of 5.87 billion yuan, up 117.01% year-on-year [1][2]. - The increase in profit is attributed to the release of new production capacity for key products like methionine and the recovery of market prices in the nutrition segment [2][5]. - The company is focusing on its "Chemicals+" and "Biological+" strategies, enhancing its competitive edge through innovation and the development of new projects [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.99%, and a net profit of 1.88 billion yuan, up 211.60% year-on-year [1][2]. - The financial expense ratio increased due to exchange rate fluctuations, impacting foreign exchange gains [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was 7.07 billion yuan, a 38.16% increase year-on-year, driven by higher sales revenue [2]. Production and Capacity - The company reported a production volume of 1.02 million tons for pharmaceutical and chemical products in 2024, a 29.18% increase year-on-year, with sales volume rising by 26.87% [2]. - The nutrition segment saw a production increase of 49.48% and sales growth of 61.46% due to rising market demand for new materials [2]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 6.50 billion yuan, 7.16 billion yuan, and 7.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10.5, 9.5, and 8.8 [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][7] Core Views - The company's performance is stable with effective structural upgrades, showing a revenue growth of 3.0% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with net profit increasing by 5.8% [5] - The product structure has improved significantly, enhancing profitability, with a gross margin of 67% and a net margin of 21% in Q1 2025 [5] - The company is focusing on optimizing sales expenses and has maintained stable contract liabilities [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, total revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were CNY 1.108 billion, CNY 234 million, and CNY 231 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +3.0%, +5.8%, and +4.3% [5] - The gross margin and net margin improved by 1.4 and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 67% and 21% respectively [5] Product Structure and Growth - Revenue from products priced above CNY 300, between CNY 100-300, and below CNY 100 were CNY 245 million, CNY 630 million, and CNY 221 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +28.14%, +14.24%, and -31.72% [6] - The company has seen a steady increase in market share within the province, with provincial revenue of CNY 857 million and out-of-province revenue of CNY 238 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of +1.05% and +9.48% respectively [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a positive trend in product structure upgrades and refined operations in the provincial market, with EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at CNY 0.81, CNY 0.90, and CNY 1.02 respectively [7][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 24, 21, and 19 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1][6]. Core Views - The company's main products have seen both volume and price increases, leading to significant profit growth. In 2024, the total revenue reached 21.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.95%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.87 billion yuan, up 117.01% year-on-year [1][2]. - The financial performance is supported by the release of new production capacity in methionine and a recovery in market prices for key products in the nutrition segment [2][5]. - The company is focusing on its "Chemicals+" and "Biology+" strategies, enhancing its competitive edge through innovation and the development of new projects [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.99%, and a net profit of 1.88 billion yuan, up 211.60% year-on-year [1][2]. - The financial expense ratio increased due to exchange rate fluctuations, impacting foreign exchange gains [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was 7.07 billion yuan, a 38.16% increase year-on-year, attributed to higher sales revenue and improved cash collection [2]. Production and Capacity - The company reported a production volume of 1.02 million tons for pharmaceutical and chemical products in 2024, a 29.18% increase year-on-year, with sales volume rising by 26.87% [2]. - The nutrition segment's methionine project has reached an annual capacity of 300,000 tons, and the company is progressing with various new projects in the flavor and fragrance sector [3][5]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see continued profit growth, with projected net profits of 6.50 billion yuan, 7.16 billion yuan, and 7.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 10.5, 9.5, and 8.8 times [6][8].