2025 年 10 月 23 日 四中全会的四大看点：科技自立自强&提振消费& 国防安全&新型能源 —宏观点评报告 事件 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于 2025 年 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京举行。全会审议通过了《中共中央关于 制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》，并发 布《中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报》 投资要点 1、未设定经济目标 强调坚决完成今年经济目标，未对未来五年设定具体增长目 标，到 2035 人均 GDP 要达到"中等发达国家水平"（即 2.2 万美元左右，24 年为 1.35 万美元，未来十年年化增速在 4.5% 左右），延续十四五以来的表述。 2、强调高质量发展 主要目标中删掉"经济发展取得新成效"，高质量发展位列 首位。十四五期间高质量发展已取得显著成效，新质生产力 是高质量发展的重要着力点。强国目标中的"数字中国"替 换为"航天强国"，关注航天机会。 3、科技自立自强 较十四五的"创新能力显著提升"，十五五"新一轮科技革 命"的表述，表明创新的内涵进一步明确为科技自立自强， 聚焦关键核心技术攻关、科技创新和产业创新融合，利好国 产替代 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the sensor industry, particularly focusing on the opportunities in domestic replacements for sensors in humanoid robots [2]. Core Insights - The sensor industry is crucial for the development of AI and robotics, serving as the bridge between the physical and virtual worlds. The global sensor market is projected to reach approximately $226.9 billion in 2023, with a growth rate of about 8% annually. In China, the sensor market is expected to grow at a rate of 15%, reaching approximately 554.7 billion yuan by 2026 [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of environmental perception sensors in robotics, highlighting their higher profit margins compared to other hardware components. The gross profit margin for sensor manufacturers typically ranges from 30% to 50%, significantly higher than the 20% to 30% margins for standard components [3][4]. - The report identifies a significant opportunity for domestic manufacturers to capture market share from foreign competitors, particularly in the emerging robotics sector, where there is potential for rapid advancement and "leapfrog" opportunities [4][5]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Sensor Market Overview - Sensors are essential for humanoid robots, acting as their sensory organs and enabling interaction with the physical world. The sensor market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing demand in various sectors, including automotive, industrial automation, and healthcare [9][17]. - The Chinese sensor market is projected to grow from 364.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 554.7 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% [17][22]. Section 2: Focus on Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report lists several companies in the sensor industry, including: - **Kaiter Co. (920978.BJ)**: Rated "Buy" with a projected EPS of 1.09 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 35.23 [6]. - Other companies mentioned, such as Amperelong and Obsidian, are not rated but have provided EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 [6][7]. Section 3: 3D Vision and Sensor Technology - The report highlights the growing importance of 3D vision technology in robotics, with the global 3D vision market expected to grow from $5 billion in 2019 to $15 billion by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 20% [36]. - Various companies are developing advanced 3D vision solutions, with a focus on depth accuracy, measurement range, and frame rate, which are critical for humanoid robots [44][46]. Section 4: Pressure Sensors and Domestic Replacement Opportunities - The report notes that the pressure sensor market is predominantly controlled by foreign brands, presenting a substantial opportunity for domestic manufacturers to capture market share. The global MEMS pressure sensor market is currently led by Bosch, with a market share of 33% [62][63]. - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic companies to fill the gap in the market, particularly in automotive applications where pressure sensors are essential [62][66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the consumer electronics industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [8]. Core Insights - The iPhone 17 series has exceeded sales expectations, with a 14% increase in sales in China and the US compared to the iPhone 16 series during the same period [4][5]. - The Chinese market has shown strong demand, particularly for the base model of the iPhone 17, which has nearly doubled its sales compared to the previous generation due to its high cost-performance ratio [4]. - The production and assembly of the iPhone 17 series are primarily centered in China (84%) and India (14%), with Chinese suppliers dominating the supply chain [5][6]. - Future product launches, including a foldable phone and AI glasses, are expected to drive a new cycle of growth for Apple and its supply chain partners [8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - iPhone 17 series sales in the first 10 days post-launch have increased by 14% compared to the iPhone 16 series, with significant contributions from both the Chinese and US markets [4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - China remains the dominant player in the iPhone supply chain, with 92 out of 187 core suppliers listed by Apple being Chinese companies, highlighting the importance of the Chinese supply chain in high-value segments [5][6]. Future Outlook - Apple is anticipated to launch a new foldable phone in 2026, featuring advanced technology and design, which is expected to initiate a new growth cycle for the company and its supply chain [8]. - The introduction of AI glasses by Apple is also projected for late 2026, further expanding its product ecosystem and market opportunities [8]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests continuous monitoring of key companies such as Luxshare Precision, Industrial Fulian, and others involved in manufacturing and assembly for potential investment opportunities [9].

Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral market sentiment with a score of 56, suggesting a balanced outlook for investors [5][9]. - Key investment themes identified include energy storage, eSIM technology, and nuclear fusion, each showing significant growth potential [5]. Energy Storage - The "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for an installed capacity of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, attracting direct investments of 250 billion yuan, with project IRR expected to exceed 8% due to supportive policies [5]. - Overseas orders for energy storage are projected to surge by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh, indicating a shift in supply-demand dynamics [5]. - Relevant companies include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power (300274) [5]. eSIM Technology - China Unicom launched its eSIM service on October 13, with over 60,000 reservations, indicating strong market interest [5]. - The reactivation of eSIM services by major telecom operators is expected to accelerate commercial adoption [5]. - Key players in this sector include Eastcompeace (002017) and Unisoc (002049) [5]. Nuclear Fusion - The CRAFT project achieved a significant milestone with the successful testing of a key component, demonstrating a steady thermal load capacity of 20 MW/m² [5]. - This development marks a major advancement in China's nuclear fusion technology, with implications for future energy solutions [5]. - Companies involved in this field include Chuangyuan New Materials (002171) and Hongxun Technology (603015) [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.238 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 19% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 266 million yuan, up 2% year-on-year [5]. - The company's mosquito repellent products achieved a significant revenue increase of 49% in Q3 2025, driven by heightened demand due to dengue fever incidents [9]. - Despite stable revenue growth, increased sales and management expenses have pressured profit margins, leading to a net profit margin decrease of 5 percentage points to 22.93% in Q3 2025 [7]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For Q3 2025, total revenue reached 342 million yuan, a 17% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 3% to 79 million yuan [5][7]. - The company's gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 58.96%, but the sales expense ratio increased by 6 percentage points to 29.09% due to heightened sales resource investment and rising e-commerce channel costs [7]. Product Performance - The mosquito repellent segment saw a revenue increase to 132 million yuan in Q3 2025, with sales volume rising by 32% to approximately 21.55 million units [9]. - Conversely, revenue from baby care products decreased by 3% to 146 million yuan, and essential oil products saw a 7% decline in revenue to 43 million yuan [9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has established a strong market presence in the home and personal care sector, with significant market shares in its three core product lines: mosquito repellent, baby care, and essential oils [10]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.77, 0.93, and 1.16 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 35, 29, and 23 times [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Zijin Mining [10] Core Views - The strong growth in gold business is primarily driven by rising gold prices, while copper production has been affected by the Kamoa Copper Mine [2][9] - The company has achieved significant revenue and profit growth in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 864.89 billion yuan, up 8.14% year-on-year, and net profit of 145.72 billion yuan, up 57.14% year-on-year [1][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Zijin Mining reported operating revenue of 864.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.14%, and a net profit of 145.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.14% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2542.00 billion yuan, up 10.33% year-on-year, and a net profit of 378.64 billion yuan, up 55.45% year-on-year [1] Mineral Production - In Q3 2025, the company produced 263,100 tons of copper, a decrease of 2.89% year-on-year, while gold production reached 23.76 tons, an increase of 25.98% year-on-year [2] - The total revenue from copper business was 141.69 billion yuan, up 19.12% year-on-year, with a total gross profit of 85.24 billion yuan, reflecting a gross profit margin of 60.16% [3] Gold Business - The gold business generated total revenue of 169.34 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a significant increase of 81.81% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 107.70 billion yuan, up 104.46% year-on-year [4][8] - The company successfully completed the IPO of its subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, raising 287 billion HKD, marking it as the largest IPO in the global gold mining industry [9] Profit Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts upward due to rising gold and copper prices, predicting revenues of 3526.83 billion yuan, 3879.77 billion yuan, and 4066.42 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 534.41 billion yuan, 632.85 billion yuan, and 710.34 billion yuan [10][12]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is at a high level, with a score of 80, categorizing it as "overheated" [5][8] - The report highlights three key investment themes: energy storage, eSIM technology, and nuclear fusion, each showing significant growth potential [5] Energy Storage - The "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" in China aims for an installed capacity of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, attracting direct investments of 250 billion yuan, with policies enhancing project IRR to over 8% [5] - Overseas orders for energy storage are expected to surge by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh, indicating a shift in supply-demand dynamics [5] - Key companies in this sector include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power (300274) [5] eSIM Technology - China Unicom launched its eSIM service on October 13, with over 60,000 reservations, indicating strong market interest [5] - The revival of eSIM services by the three major telecom operators in China is expected to accelerate commercial adoption [5] - Relevant companies include Eastcompeace Technology (002017) and Unisoc (002049) [5] Nuclear Fusion - The CRAFT project in China achieved a significant breakthrough with the successful testing of a key component, demonstrating a steady thermal load capacity of 20 MW/m² [5] - This development marks a milestone in the creation of the largest and highest thermal load filter prototype designed independently in China [5] - Companies involved in this field include Chuangyuan New Materials (002171) and Hongxun Technology (603015) [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [9] Core Views - The economic landscape continues to show resilience, with GDP growth in the first three quarters reaching 101.50 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Despite a marginal decline in growth rate to 4.8% in Q3, the overall economic stability is supported by new productive forces and effective macro policies [4] - Retail sales growth has slowed down, with total retail sales from January to September at 36.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. In September alone, retail sales were 4.20 trillion yuan, growing by only 3.0% [5] - The beverage sector is performing strongly, with a focus on new consumption opportunities driven by retail channel transformations. Key companies to watch include Huashang Auntie, Tea Baidao, and others [6] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - GDP growth has shown resilience despite external challenges, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% in the first three quarters [4] - The Q3 GDP growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points, attributed to external tariff policy changes and transitional pains in various industries [4] Retail Sales Performance - Total retail sales for the first nine months reached 36.59 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.5% year-on-year. September's retail sales were 4.20 trillion yuan, reflecting a slowdown to 3.0% growth [5] - The decline in growth is linked to the reduced impact of the "old-for-new" policy and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [5] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies with strong recovery expectations in the consumer goods sector, including Weilai Delicious, Ximai Foods, and Youyou Foods [6] - The beverage sector is noted for its robust performance, with a focus on companies like Dongpeng Beverage and others, as well as the impact of new birth policies on dairy demand, highlighting companies such as Yili and Mengniu [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the median convertible bond price dropped from 132 yuan to 129 yuan, with the average daily turnover in the entire convertible bond market remaining at a relatively low level of 65.2 billion yuan. The median conversion premium rate increased from 27.8% to 28.5%, and the implied volatility decreased from 37% to 35.5% (historical quantile of 73%). The trading sentiment of convertible bonds recovered, and the turnover rates of extremely low - balance and low - rated convertible bonds increased. After the market adjustment, the proportion of dual - low convertible bonds in industries such as commercial trade, banking, non - banking, and transportation increased [1]. - Last week, the risk appetite of funds continued to decline. The share of gold ETFs increased significantly by 22.7%, the share of dividend - concept ETFs increased by 5.2%, while the shares of stock - type and convertible bond ETFs decreased, with the decrease rate of convertible bond ETF fund shares (-3.5%) slightly larger than that of the overall stock - type ETFs (-2.6%) [2]. - After the TACO transaction was confirmed last weekend, the market risk appetite recovered. Structurally, overall attention should be paid to the performance realization of the underlying stocks. Combine performance and focus on Q3 performance - promising targets and sub - new convertible bonds [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The median convertible bond price decreased from 132 yuan to 129 yuan, the average daily turnover in the entire convertible bond market was 65.2 billion yuan, remaining at a low level. The median conversion premium rate rose from 27.8% to 28.5%, and the implied volatility dropped from 37% to 35.5% (historical quantile of 73%). The trading sentiment of convertible bonds improved, and the turnover rates of extremely low - balance and low - rated convertible bonds went up. Due to the protection of the bond floor in a falling market, the valuation of low - price convertible bonds increased significantly, outperforming other sectors. After the market adjustment, the proportion of dual - low convertible bonds in commercial trade, banking, non - banking, and transportation increased [1]. Funds Sentiment - Comparing the share fluctuations of various broad - based indexes, bond - type, and major commodity (gold) ETFs, last week, the risk appetite of funds continued to decline. The share of gold ETFs increased by 22.7%, the share of dividend - concept ETFs increased by 5.2%, while the shares of stock - type and convertible bond ETFs decreased. The decrease rate of convertible bond ETF fund shares (-3.5%) was slightly larger than that of the overall stock - type ETFs (-2.6%) [2]. - In September, bond investors such as insurance, social security, and securities asset management concentrated on reducing their holdings of convertible bonds, with the reduction amplitude significantly larger than the shrinkage amplitude of the convertible bond market scale. Retail investors maintained a selling trend in a relatively strong stock market. Convertible bond ETFs provided certain liquidity to the convertible bond market, and the public - offering convertible bond holdings remained stable [23]. Investment Strategy - After the TACO transaction was confirmed last weekend, the market risk appetite recovered. Focus on the performance realization of the underlying stocks and pay attention to the following directions: - Q3 performance - promising targets: 1) Technologically leading manufacturers in the domestic substitution field, such as Dinglong Co., Ltd. (Dinglong Convertible Bond) and Guoli Electronics (Guoli Convertible Bond). 2) Companies in high - growth sectors with continuous technological upgrades, like Daotong Technology (Daotong Convertible Bond) and Luxshare Precision (Luxshare Convertible Bond). 3) Industries benefiting from anti - involution price increases, such as power equipment and chemicals, including Zhuhai Guanyu (Guanyu Convertible Bond) and Limin Co., Ltd. (Limin Convertible Bond) [3]. - Sub - new convertible bonds: Due to the intensified supply - demand contradiction in the convertible bond market, the elasticity and valuation of sub - new convertible bonds have been pushed up, and many are popular themes with good performance. They are worth paying attention to during market pullbacks, such as Jinwei Convertible Bond, Weidao Convertible Bond, etc. [4]. - Considering the performance realization, convertible bonds such as Changyin Convertible Bond, Chongyin Convertible Bond, etc., are worthy of attention. The dumbbell strategy portfolio remained unchanged this period and outperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 1.77 percentage points last week [28][29].

Core Insights - The report indicates a "relatively hot" market sentiment with a composite score of 65, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [6][10] - Key investment themes identified include energy storage, eSIM technology, and nuclear fusion, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment opportunities [6] Energy Storage - The "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" in China aims for an installed capacity of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, attracting direct investments of 250 billion yuan. Policies are expected to enhance project IRR to over 8% [6] - Overseas orders for energy storage are projected to surge by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh, indicating a shift in supply-demand dynamics [6] - Related companies include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power (300274) [6] eSIM Technology - China Unicom launched its eSIM service on October 13, with over 60,000 reservations, indicating strong market interest [6] - The reactivation of eSIM services by major telecom operators is expected to accelerate commercial adoption [6] - Related companies include Eastcompeace (002017) and Unisoc (002049) [6] Nuclear Fusion - The CRAFT project in China achieved significant breakthroughs, with a prototype component passing expert testing, demonstrating a steady thermal load capacity of 20 MW/m² [6] - This development marks a milestone in the design of the largest and highest thermal load filter prototype globally [6] - Related companies include Chuangjiang New Materials (002171) and Hongxun Technology (603015) [6] Market Trends - The report highlights a trend of increasing market activity, with a focus on sectors such as telecommunications, light manufacturing, and household appliances, which have seen significant net inflows [16] - Conversely, sectors like electronics and automobiles are experiencing notable net outflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [21]