Group 1 - The macro liquidity environment is overall balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 6047 billion yuan through open market operations, including a 47 billion yuan net injection from 7-day reverse repos and a 6000 billion yuan 6-month buyout reverse repo [3][9][10] - The social financing scale increased significantly in November, reaching 24885 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month. The main contributors were government bonds and corporate bonds, while non-standard financing turned positive [10][11][14] - The money supply indicators M1 and M2 continued to decline year-on-year, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 8% in November, both showing a decrease in growth rate compared to the previous month [10][11][14] Group 2 - The supply side of the stock market shows structural differentiation, with a decline in equity fund issuance and a slight recovery in financing balance, indicating an increase in leveraged funds' participation. The net inflow of financing was concentrated in sectors like electronics and defense, while sectors like computers and automobiles experienced net outflows [4][19][30] - The stock market's demand side pressure has eased, with a decrease in equity financing scale and a drop in the scale of locked-up shares released, amounting to 414.42 billion yuan, down from 786.35 billion yuan the previous week [30][35][39] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in November was 238.1 million, an increase from 230.9 million in the previous month, indicating a slight uptick in market participation [19][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company focuses on deepening design and process collaboration, enhancing its EDA+IP ecosystem through acquisitions [1] - The company has shown stable revenue growth with a CAGR of 32.13% from 2020 to 2024, and its R&D expenses are significant, with rates of 71.1% and 64.8% for 2023 and 2024 respectively [7][31] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic EDA enterprise, with successful acquisitions enhancing its product offerings and technical capabilities [10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company's main products include manufacturing EDA, design EDA, device testing systems, and one-stop technology development [17] - The company has completed three acquisitions from 2010 to 2023, indicating a strategy of innovation and acquisition [7][22] - As of Q3 2025, the top six shareholders hold 59.7% of the shares, indicating a concentrated ownership structure [23] Market Data - As of December 15, 2025, the company's current price is 33.79 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 14.70 billion yuan [4] - The company has shown a 12.71% year-on-year revenue growth for the first three quarters of 2025 [30] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 3.15 billion yuan, with a net profit of 42 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 173.46% [30] - The company’s gross margin remains high at 89.1%, with effective control over expenses [31] EDA Market Insights - The global EDA market is expected to grow steadily, with a projected size of approximately 14.55 billion USD in 2025, increasing to 32.15 billion USD by 2034, representing a CAGR of 9.21% [51] - The EDA industry is highly concentrated, with the top three companies holding 74% of the market share [58] Strategic Acquisitions - The company plans to acquire Ruicheng Chip Micro and Naneng Micro in 2025, aiming to become the first listed company in China to achieve deep collaboration between EDA and semiconductor IP [9][10] - The acquisitions are expected to expand the company's revenue scale and profitability [9]

Group 1 - The report discusses the high volatility of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) due to a shift in monetary policy and concerns over long-term debt sustainability, leading to a rapid increase in JGB yields since early 2024 [3][4] - The report highlights the divergence between the rising JGB yields and the depreciation of the Japanese yen, attributing this to market concerns over fiscal health and capital outflows driven by trade agreements [3][4] - The outlook suggests continued upward pressure on JGB yields, while the divergence between the yen and interest rate differentials may not persist long-term, potentially leading to yen appreciation as market concerns ease [4] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of a proactive fiscal policy, maintaining a fiscal deficit around 4% for 2025, which is higher than previous years, to support economic stability [5][8][9] - The report indicates that China's government debt ratio remains significantly lower than that of major economies, providing ample fiscal space for expansionary policies [8][9] - The focus on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure aims to transition from production-oriented to welfare-oriented spending, with significant allocations for education, social security, and healthcare [10] Group 3 - The report outlines the commitment to expanding domestic demand as a primary driver of economic growth, with a focus on increasing consumption and investment to stabilize the economy [13][14] - It highlights the need to boost consumer spending, noting that the contribution of final consumption to GDP growth was 53.5% in the first three quarters of 2025 [14][15] - The investment strategy includes increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government special bond usage to stimulate effective investment [15][26] Group 4 - The report discusses the establishment of a unified national market to combat "involution" in competition, emphasizing the need for standardized regulations and improved resource allocation [16][17] - It notes the progress in reducing logistics costs and increasing inter-provincial trade, indicating a move towards a more integrated market [16][17] - The focus on creating a competitive market order aims to enhance efficiency and support high-quality development across various industries [17] Group 5 - The chemical industry is identified as entering a favorable phase driven by global supply dynamics and increasing demand for AI technologies [30][31] - The report lists key players in various segments of the chemical industry, including gas turbines, refrigerants, and energy storage, highlighting potential investment opportunities [31][32] - It emphasizes the importance of value-driven strategies in the chemical sector, with a focus on enhancing dividend yields and addressing supply-side challenges [32] Group 6 - The report on credit bonds indicates a need for strategies that focus on attracting incremental funds and adapting to market conditions, with a recommendation for short-term and mid-to-long-term strategies [34][35] - It highlights the ongoing challenges in the municipal bond market, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in lower-rated bonds while seeking opportunities in higher-quality assets [36] - The financial bond market is expected to face limited supply pressures, with a focus on maintaining asset quality amid changing market dynamics [37] Group 7 - The report on social financing data indicates a stable growth rate in loans, primarily driven by corporate lending, while consumer borrowing remains cautious [38][39] - It notes a significant increase in direct financing, reflecting a positive trend in market development, despite a decline in household leverage [39][40] - The overall financial environment suggests continued support for fiscal and monetary policies to sustain economic growth [39]

Group 1: Fixed Income and Macro Insights - The report discusses the rapid rise in Japanese government bond yields since early 2024, attributed to the end of negative interest rates and the abandonment of the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, alongside concerns over long-term debt sustainability and structural demand shrinkage [3][4] - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining a fiscal deficit around 4% for 2025, which is higher than previous years, indicating a focus on constructive fiscal expansion [5][8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth, with consumer spending contributing significantly to GDP growth [13][14][15] Group 2: Industry and Sector Analysis - The chemical industry is entering a favorable phase, driven by global supply dynamics and increasing demand for AI technologies, with specific companies identified as key players in various segments such as gas turbines and refrigerants [30][31] - The report outlines the ongoing transformation in the real estate sector, focusing on controlling supply, reducing inventory, and improving the quality of housing, with a significant emphasis on affordable housing initiatives [20][21][27] - The robotics sector is experiencing accelerated financing and innovation, with several companies completing significant funding rounds to enhance R&D and commercialize advanced robotic solutions [41][42][44]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The establishment of a silicon material storage platform company enhances confidence in the profitability reversal of the photovoltaic industry. The platform, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, is expected to confirm reasonable pricing and storage targets for polysilicon sales [5][6] - The wind power sector shows strong bidding activity, with domestic land wind turbine bidding reaching 5.06GW in December, indicating sustained high demand [6][7] - The energy storage market is experiencing significant growth, with over 1,600 new user-side storage projects added in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting a 26% increase in project numbers and an 86% increase in installed capacity year-on-year [6][7] - The lithium battery industry is advancing solid-state battery layouts, with companies actively pursuing strategic partnerships and price adjustments in response to rising raw material costs [7][8] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - The establishment of the silicon material storage platform is expected to lead to increased registered capital and improved pricing strategies for polysilicon [5] - Demand remains weak in the short term, with component manufacturers planning significant production cuts in December [6] Wind Power Sector - Domestic land wind turbine bidding has reached 5.06GW, with a notable increase in procurement for both land and offshore wind projects [6] - The average bidding price for new land wind projects has shown a recovery, indicating a positive trend in the market [6] Energy Storage Sector - The user-side energy storage market is rapidly growing, with significant increases in both project numbers and installed capacity [6] - A major independent energy storage project in Inner Mongolia has commenced operations, highlighting the sector's development [6] Lithium Battery Sector - Companies are focusing on solid-state battery innovations and adjusting prices due to rising production costs [7] - The price transmission within the lithium battery supply chain is improving, with leading companies actively managing supply and customer relationships [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1]. Core Insights - The 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List has been published, adding 114 new drugs, with a negotiation/competitive bidding success rate of 88%, higher than the 76% in 2024. The total number of drugs in the insurance list has increased to 3,253, including 1,857 Western medicines and 1,396 traditional Chinese medicines [12]. - The pharmaceutical sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date return of 14.65% against the CSI 300's 16.43%, resulting in a 1.77 percentage point lag [21]. - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 33.0 times PE based on 2026 earnings forecasts, representing a 41% premium over the overall A-share market (excluding financials) [21]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has seen a decline of 1.04% in the past week, ranking 17th among 31 primary sub-industries. The sub-sectors of chemical pharmaceuticals, biological products, medical devices, pharmaceutical commerce, traditional Chinese medicine, and medical services have experienced weekly changes of -0.75%, -1.85%, -1.79%, -4.26%, -2.03%, and +1.67%, respectively [11][22]. Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical sector's performance from the beginning of 2025 to December 12 shows a return of 14.65%, while the CSI 300 index returned 16.43%, indicating a relative underperformance of 1.77 percentage points [21]. Valuation Analysis - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 29.0 times PE based on trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings, which is below the historical average of 35.0 times PE from January 4, 2010, to December 12, 2025. The sector's premium over the overall A-share market (excluding financials) is 16.3% [21]. Industry Developments - The first commercial health insurance drug list has been established, including 19 drugs that enjoy various policy benefits. This list is effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, and includes five CAR-T products [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the recovery of PPI as a significant macroeconomic theme for 2026, which is expected to strengthen corporate profitability and provide solid fundamental support compared to 2025 [7][19][20] - The report predicts that the net profit growth rate for the non-financial sector of the entire A-share market is expected to exceed 10% in 2026, driven by the recovery of PPI [20][22] - The report highlights that the recovery slope of PPI will depend on the degree of fiscal expansion, with a steeper recovery indicating stronger market performance [26][32] Group 2 - The report identifies key industry configurations for 2026, including sectors benefiting from U.S. interest rate cuts, external demand, AI, price increases, and an active capital market [8][19] - Specific sectors such as industrial metals, electric grid equipment, energy storage, battery materials, and certain chemicals are expected to benefit from increased external demand and U.S. capital expenditure expansion [8][19] - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly in AI and robotics, will continue to see high demand and potential growth, with a focus on software, media, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][19][40] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the first half of 2026 will present a favorable time window for growth performance, driven by domestic policy initiatives and external interest rate cuts [7][44] - The potential for a "spring rally" is highlighted, with expectations that it may occur earlier than usual due to clearer interest rate cut expectations and favorable market conditions [7][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the pace of resident deposit migration and foreign capital inflow as critical variables influencing market dynamics [7][36][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the humanoid robot industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [10]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing accelerated financing activities, with companies like Zhongqing Robotics and Yunshe Technology successfully completing multiple funding rounds to enhance R&D and commercialize products [1][2][6]. - The report highlights the potential for humanoid robots to create a market space broader than that of automobiles, marking a significant investment opportunity as the industry transitions from 0 to 1 [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with core component capabilities and active involvement in humanoid robotics, suggesting a focus on specific stocks within this sector [10]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Zhongqing Robotics completed A1+ and A2 funding rounds, attracting investments from various institutional investors [1]. - Yunshe Technology announced over 500 million RMB in C round financing, aimed at enhancing R&D for humanoid and quadruped robots [2]. - Luming Robotics secured Pre-A1 and Pre-A2 funding rounds, focusing on investments in intelligent data and hardware [2]. - Yuanzhi Intelligent was recognized in the national AI medical device initiative, showcasing its advancements in surgical robotics [3]. Industry Performance - The humanoid robot industry is positioned to benefit from the ongoing electrification and intelligence trends, with significant product iterations and business collaborations underway [10]. - The report notes that the humanoid robot sector may be on the verge of a transformative moment akin to the "ChatGPT moment" [10]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies with established core components and active engagement in humanoid robotics, including Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Top Group, and Zhejiang Rongtai, among others [10].

2025 年 12 月 12 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 许潇琦 S0350525080004 xuxq01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 实施城乡居民增收计划，推动投资止跌回稳 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议解读 事件： 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。中共中央总书记、 国家主席、中央军委主席习近平出席会议并发表重要讲话。 投资要点： 最近一年走势 相关报告 《公募 REITs 月报：一级市场项目进展顺利，产业 园区板块承压*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-12-04 《公募 REITs 月报：二级市场整体承压，新基建板 块迎结构性行情*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-11-05 《党的二十届四中全会解读与比较：承前启后的关 键布局*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-10-25 宜均衡配置*林加力，许潇琦，袁雨琦》—— 2025-10-17 《公募 REITs 月报：一级市场项目进展顺利，二级 市场收益承压*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-10-10 国海证券研 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is entering a favorable phase driven by demand, value, and supply dynamics [5][6][7] - Global supply constraints and the exit of European capacities are expected to enhance the market environment for the chemical sector [7] Demand Drivers - Key opportunities identified in various sectors include: - Gas turbine upstream: companies like Zhenhua Co., Yingliu Co., Longda Co., and Wanze Co. [5] - Refrigerants and fluorinated liquids: companies such as Juhua Co., New Zhoubang, and Runhe Materials [5] - Energy storage supply chain: including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, Batian Co., and others [5] - Semiconductor materials: companies like Yanggu Huatai, Wanrun Co., Dinglong Co., and others [5] Value Drivers - Potential for increased dividend yields in sectors such as: - Coal chemical: Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [6] - Oil refining: Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, and Sinopec [6] - Phosphate fertilizers: Yuntianhua, Yuntu Holdings, and others [6] Supply Drivers - Domestic anti-involution policies and the exit of European production capacities are expected to support the chemical industry: - PTA and polyester filament: companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co. [7] - Tire manufacturing: including Sailun Tire, Zhongce Rubber, and others [7] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Selected companies with profit forecasts include: - Zhenhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 6.04 billion, PE: 21.8) [8] - Yingliu Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 4.08 billion, PE: 42.7) [8] - Longda Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 1.06 billion, PE: 34.9) [8] - Wanze Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 2.37 billion, PE: 32.9) [8] - Juhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 48.14 billion, PE: 24.4) [8] Industry Cycle Insights - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle, with demand recovery and supply-side reforms driving growth [14][21] - The chemical price index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential upturn in the market [20][21]