2025 年 06 月 03 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 92 期 观点精粹: 我们认为 Meta 不仅通过 AI 优先的战略构建了世界一流的 AI 内容广告推荐系统和大模型，还有望通过"AI+ 主营业务"实现大规划 AI 货币化变现。我们看好 Meta AI 优先战略，认为公司不仅能凭借全球领先的 GPU 驱 动的生成式 AI 推荐系统推动用户时长与活跃度的进一步增长，还能借助 Advantage+ AI 广告系统进一步提升 广告 CPM，对于开源大模型 Llama，公司也能通过智能眼镜、Click-to-Message、AI 助手互动广告等实现深 度变现。 核心问题一：如何量化 AI 对 Meta 业务的弹性贡献？ AI 推荐系统是 Meta 资本开支的主要方向，公司有望凭借 GPU 驱动的生成式 AI 推荐系统稳固社交龙头地位。 公司于 2024Q1 宣布建成 GPU 驱动的 Reels AI 统一推荐系统，采用 10 万片 H100 GPU，驱动 8%-10%的用 ...

2025 年 06 月 02 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车 | | 1.4% | -1.4% | 27.4% | | 沪深 | 300 | 1.8% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 相关报告 《特斯拉官网开放多个 Optimus 相关岗位，北京亦 庄人形机器人半程马拉松成功举办——人形机器 人行业 2025 年 4 月月报（推荐）*汽车*吴铭杰， 戴畅》——2025-05-14 《马斯克提出星舰将于 2026 年携带"擎天柱"前 往火星，宇树 G1 机器人首次完成侧空翻——人形 机器人行业 2025 年 3 月月报（推荐）*汽车*吴铭 杰，戴畅》——2025-04-07 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 尊界 [Table_Title] S800、小鹏 MONA M03 Max 上市，比亚 迪/吉利/奇瑞宣布限时优惠 ——汽车行业周报 《宇树科技 CEO 王兴兴出 ...

Group 1: Key Points on Tariff Policy - The U.S. government plans to cancel 91% of additional tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, retaining 10%[4] - In FY2024, U.S. tariff revenue is projected to be approximately $77.04 billion, accounting for 1.57% of total fiscal revenue[12] - In April 2025, U.S. tariff revenue reached $16.3 billion, marking a month-on-month increase of about 86% and a year-on-year increase of approximately 130%[12] Group 2: Economic Implications - The IMF has downgraded the global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, with a 40% probability of U.S. economic recession[43] - The proposed tax reform aims to reduce taxes by over $4 trillion over the next decade, potentially increasing public debt by at least $3 trillion[43] - The U.S. faces significant interest expenses, with FY2024 federal interest payments estimated at $1.13 trillion, and $684.1 billion already spent by April 2025[14] Group 3: Political Considerations - Trump's approval rating was reported at 42%, the lowest during his second term, with only 39% approval for his economic performance[11] - The upcoming midterm elections in November 2026 are a significant concern for the Trump administration, as historical trends suggest potential losses for the incumbent party[11] - Support for specific proposals, such as increasing tariffs as a negotiation strategy, stands at 49% among voters[11] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. capital markets experienced a significant downturn, with major indices dropping between 5.5% and 5.97%[18] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 8.2% year-to-date, reflecting market reactions to tariff policies[18] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, indicating increased concerns over fiscal stability[18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pioneer in overseas social networking, leveraging a diverse product matrix to capture global opportunities [8]. - The report highlights the company's stable core business in social networking, with strong growth potential from late-stage products [8]. - The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers is noted as a strategic move to tap into the growing LGBTQ market, with the launch of the HeeSay brand aimed at expanding into Southeast Asia and Western markets [9]. - The company is also expanding its presence in the casual gaming sector, with a notable increase in revenue from its flagship game [10]. Company Overview - The company has a decade-long history of development, combining self-developed and acquired products to build a diverse product matrix [14][15]. - The business model is divided into two main segments: social business and innovative business, with social business contributing the majority of revenue [17]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 6.628 billion in 2025, 8.297 billion in 2026, and 10.274 billion in 2027 [6]. - The company expects a rebound in net profit, forecasting 980 million in 2025, 1.335 billion in 2026, and 1.774 billion in 2027 [6]. - The adjusted EBITDA is also anticipated to rise, with projections of 1.319 billion in 2025 and 1.739 billion in 2026 [6]. Market Position - The global social application market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company focusing on localized operations and a multi-modal product strategy to meet diverse user needs [36][41]. - The report indicates that the company has a strong understanding of local markets, which enhances its operational effectiveness [56]. Product Strategy - The company has developed a multi-product strategy that allows for rapid iteration and testing, reducing marginal costs and diversifying market risk [57]. - Key products include MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO, each targeting different social interaction needs [8][9]. Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the LGBTQ social networking space, particularly through the HeeSay brand [9]. - The casual gaming segment is also highlighted as a promising area, with expectations for continued revenue growth from new game releases [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the global energy transition and the explosive growth of AI data centers, leading to a robust order book for gas turbines and new growth momentum from emerging fields such as nuclear fusion and low-altitude economy [11]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 30.07 billion, 36.80 billion, and 44.23 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.15 billion, 5.60 billion, and 7.26 billion yuan [11][13]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 25.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.57% [5]. - The company's Q4 2024 revenue was 6.03 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.31% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.14% [5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.89% [7]. Segment Performance Summary - In 2024, revenue from high-temperature alloy products and precision cast steel components was 14.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.69% [6]. - Revenue from nuclear power and other large cast steel components was 6.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.32% [6]. - Revenue from new materials and equipment was 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.00% [6]. Order and Market Position Summary - The company has a strong order backlog in the "two-machine" sector, with over 12 billion yuan in orders [9]. - The gas turbine segment saw a 102.8% increase in orders due to global energy transition and AI data center construction [9]. - The company is actively involved in nuclear fusion projects and has successfully developed a new high-heat load component that has passed experimental validation [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The global ETF market is steadily expanding. The US market is mature, the Asia - Pacific region is a new growth engine, and the European market leads in ESG - themed investment. Each region has its own characteristics and development trends [7]. - The US ETF market has a rich product matrix, with comprehensive asset and geographical coverage, and continuous product innovation [7]. - The European ETF market is characterized by leading ESG - themed investment, with significant regulatory and innovation advantages [7]. - The Japanese ETF market is deeply involved by the central bank, with a distinct feature of real - estate REITs investment [7]. - The Chinese ETF market is in a historical expansion period, with characteristics of diversified innovation and institutionalized investment, and is moving towards high - quality development [7]. Summary According to the Directory US ETF: Mature Market with a Rich Product Matrix - **Theoretical Basis for Passive Index Investment**: In an efficient market, it's difficult for active funds to beat passive index investment. The effective market hypothesis and empirical research show that most active - type stock funds can't achieve stable Alpha in the long - term, which promotes the rise of passive index investment. ETFs, with advantages such as low cost, high transparency, and strong liquidity, have become the mainstream tool for passive index investment [12][14][18]. - **Market Scale and Growth**: The US ETF market shows strong growth resilience, with its scale growth rate consistently higher than that of mutual funds. As of the end of 2023, the ETF scale reached $8.09 trillion, and the number of ETFs was 3108. ETFs are becoming an important supplement and alternative to traditional mutual funds [23][24]. - **Product System**: The US ETF product system is perfect, mainly stock - type, with a preference for large - cap stocks. The asset coverage is constantly expanding, and digital assets such as Bitcoin ETFs have been innovatively developed. As of 2024, the total scale of 11 approved spot Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $9 billion [26][28]. - **Active - type ETF**: Active - type ETFs are growing rapidly, accounting for 6.47% of the overall market scale by the end of 2023. There are three parallel disclosure modes to meet different investment strategies and market demands [30][31]. - **Cross - border ETF**: US cross - border ETFs are globally distributed, with an investment proportion of 40.29% in emerging markets as of 2024. The investment in the Asia - Pacific region has grown rapidly, exceeding $100 billion in 2024. Key investment countries include Japan, China, and India [33][34][37]. - **SmartBeta ETF**: There are various types of US SmartBeta ETFs, which have different advantages in different economic cycles and are of differential allocation value [39][40]. - **Leveraged/Short ETF**: The US leveraged/short ETF system is relatively mature, covering multiple asset categories. The scale of leveraged/short ETFs related to cryptocurrencies and volatility has increased significantly in 2023 - 2024, and the total management assets exceeded $120 billion in 2024 [42][43]. European ETF: Leading in ESG - themed Development Globally - **Market Scale and Development Process**: As of the end of 2024, the total management assets of European ETFs reached $2.21 trillion. Since 2000, the European ETF market has developed steadily, with the continuous improvement of the regulatory system and accelerating product innovation in recent years [47][48]. - **Product Structure**: The European ETF market is mainly composed of stock - type ($1.62 trillion) and bond - type ($410.1 billion) ETFs. It also has a certain scale in commodities, currencies, and special assets such as cryptocurrencies [49]. - **Industry - Themed ETF**: The European industry - themed ETF has shifted from industry selection to theme - strategy orientation, going through three development stages, and the proportion of theme - type ETFs has been increasing in recent years [51][52]. - **SmartBeta ETF**: European SmartBeta ETFs are mainly ESG - themed. The regulatory environment attaches great importance to ESG, which promotes the integration of ESG concepts into the design of SmartBeta ETFs [53][54][55]. Japanese ETF: Central - Bank - Dominated and Market - Supplementary - **Market Scale and Development**: As of the end of 2024, the total management assets of Japanese ETFs reached $588.659 billion, with mixed - stock - type ETFs accounting for 97.63%. The market has been growing steadily, and the product system has been diversifying in recent years [57][58]. - **Industry - Themed Investment**: Japanese industry - themed ETFs are highly concentrated in REITs and the financial sector. The REITs ETF system is well - developed, and the REIT index yield is much higher than that of government bonds [59][60][61]. - **Role of the Central Bank**: Since 2010, the Japanese central bank has included ETF purchases in its quantitative easing policy. It has played an important role in stabilizing the market and boosting confidence. As of the end of 2024, the central bank holds about 37 trillion yen of ETF assets [62][63][64]. Chinese ETF Market Future Trend Outlook - **Current Market Situation**: As of April 18, 2025, the total scale of Chinese ETFs has reached 4.02 trillion yuan, showing a rapid growth trend since 2018. Stock - type ETFs are dominant, followed by cross - border and bond - type ETFs. Institutional investors are the main force in the market, preferring broad - based ETFs. Chinese ETFs have a significant fee advantage [68][69][79]. - **Stock - type ETF Structure**: In stock - type ETFs, broad - based index ETFs have the highest scale, and theme - type ETFs are increasing rapidly. In terms of industry investment, the financial sector has the highest proportion, and in terms of theme investment, it focuses on technology hotspots [71][72][75]. - **Strategy and Style Index ETFs**: In strategy index ETFs, the dividend strategy dominates, and in style index ETFs, the growth style leads [76]. - **Future Trends**: - **SmartBeta ETF**: There is still much room for growth in Chinese SmartBeta ETFs. Currently, the dividend strategy dominates, and in the future, innovation is expected in directions such as low - volatility, quality, and ESG integration [83]. - **Index - Enhanced ETF**: Index - enhanced ETFs are becoming an important form of active - type ETFs in China. As of April 18, 2025, 34 index - enhanced ETFs have been issued, covering 12 broad - based indexes, and most of them have achieved positive excess returns relative to their benchmarks [84][85]. - **Cross - border ETF**: Chinese cross - border ETFs are mainly invested in the Hong Kong and US markets. In the future, the investment scope is expected to expand continuously to meet investors' demand for overseas asset allocation [86][87][88]. - **Central Huijin's ETF Purchase**: Since 2023, Central Huijin has significantly increased its ETF holdings, playing a role in stabilizing the market. In the future, its strategy may shift from short - term volatility support to long - term balanced allocation [90][91].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK) [1] Core Views - China Tobacco Hong Kong is the only publicly listed company in the Chinese tobacco system, focusing on both organic growth and external expansion strategies. The company is expected to benefit from the integration of overseas assets and has a strong growth outlook [10][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Tobacco Hong Kong was established in 2004 and is the only listed company in the Chinese tobacco system, covering five major business segments: tobacco leaf import and export, cigarette export, new tobacco products, and operations in Brazil. The company reported a revenue of HKD 13.07 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit of HKD 854 million, up 42.6% year-on-year [9][17]. Business Model - The company operates five main businesses: 1. Tobacco Leaf Import: Revenue of HKD 82.5 billion in 2024, accounting for 63% of total revenue. 2. Tobacco Leaf Export: Revenue of HKD 20.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%. 3. Cigarette Export: Revenue of HKD 15.7 billion, up 30.2% year-on-year. 4. New Tobacco Products: Revenue of HKD 1.4 billion, a 4% increase. 5. Brazilian Operations: Revenue of HKD 10.5 billion, a 37% increase [9][22]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue growth of 10% for 2025, reaching HKD 14.39 billion, and net profit growth of 15%, reaching HKD 978 million. The diluted earnings per share are expected to be HKD 1.41 in 2025 [7][10]. Market Position - China Tobacco Hong Kong has a unique position as the only licensed tobacco company in the Chinese system, which enhances its scarcity and growth potential. The company is well-positioned to leverage its exclusive rights to import and export tobacco products [9][23]. Strategic Insights - The report highlights the potential for mergers and acquisitions as a means for China Tobacco Hong Kong to expand its market presence and product offerings, similar to strategies employed by international tobacco giants [10][9].

Group 1: DTC Channel and Financial Performance of Deckers Outdoor (DECK) - The DTC channel is under short-term pressure, with FY2026Q1 guidance falling short of expectations. The company reported FY2025 revenue of $4.986 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.3% [3] - For FY2025Q4, revenue reached $1.022 billion, exceeding market expectations, with a gross margin of 56.7%, benefiting from an increase in full-price sales of UGG products [3][4] - The UGG brand achieved revenue of $2.531 billion in FY2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with DTC revenue growing by 11% [4] Group 2: HOKA Brand Performance - HOKA brand revenue for FY2025 was $2.233 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, with DTC revenue growth slowing to 3% in FY2025Q4 due to market pressures [5] - Management expects DTC channel price pressures to ease after FY2026Q1, with growth dynamics anticipated to recover [5][6] Group 3: Xiaomi Group (01810) - Xiaomi Group reported Q1 2025 revenue of approximately 111.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, with adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% [9][10] - The company achieved a global smartphone market share of 14.1%, maintaining a top-three position for 19 consecutive quarters, with an average selling price (ASP) of 1211 yuan, a historical high [10] - Revenue from smart home appliances grew by 113.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by strong sales in air conditioners and refrigerators [11] Group 4: Amer Sports (AS) - Amer Sports reported Q1 FY2025 revenue of $1.473 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%, exceeding market expectations [15] - The technical apparel segment saw revenue growth of 32% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from the Arc'teryx brand [16] - The outdoor performance segment achieved revenue of $502 million, a year-on-year increase of 29%, with significant growth in the Greater China region [17] Group 5: Ball Sports Segment - The ball sports segment reported revenue of $306 million, a year-on-year increase of 13%, primarily driven by soft goods [18] - The company expects FY2025 revenue to grow by 15%-17%, with a gross margin of 56.5%-57% [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Insights - The DTC channel is under short-term pressure, and the FY2026 Q1 guidance is below expectations [2][6] - The company reported FY2025 revenue of $4.986 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, with a gross margin of 57.9% [6][9] - The management expects double-digit revenue growth for FY2026, with HOKA brand growth around 15% and UGG brand growth in the single digits [9] Financial Performance - FY2025 Q4 revenue was $1.022 billion, exceeding market expectations of $1.001 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [6] - The gross margin for FY2025 Q4 was 56.7%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in full-price sales of UGG [6] - The company’s inventory at the end of the quarter was $495.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [6] Regional and Channel Performance - In FY2025 Q4, UGG brand revenue was $2.531 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [6] - DTC channel revenue for FY2025 Q4 was $410 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% [6] - HOKA brand revenue for FY2025 was $2.233 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, with DTC revenue growth of 23% [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026 are estimated at $5.412 billion, with a growth rate of 8.6% [8] - The expected diluted EPS for FY2026 is $6.70, with a projected P/E ratio of 15.6 [8][9] - The company aims to maintain profitability through selective price increases and optimizing production efficiency [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The outdoor performance department has shown strong performance, with rapid store expansion in the Greater China region [2] - The company reported a revenue of $1.473 billion for FY2025 Q1, a year-on-year increase of 26%, exceeding market expectations [8] - The company has raised its FY2025 revenue guidance to a year-on-year increase of 15%-17% [9] Financial Performance - The technical apparel department generated $664 million in revenue for FY2025 Q1, a year-on-year increase of 32%, surpassing market expectations of $631 million [3] - The outdoor performance department's revenue reached $502 million for FY2025 Q1, a year-on-year increase of 29%, exceeding market expectations of $452 million [3] - The company expects a revenue growth of 20%-22% for the technical apparel department in 2025 [3] Store Expansion and Market Strategy - The company plans to close some cooperative stores in the Greater China region in 2025, focusing on store optimization rather than expansion [3] - The Salomon brand has seen over 60% year-on-year sales growth in the Greater China and Asia-Pacific regions [3] - The company anticipates reaching 300 stores in China by the end of 2025 [3] Profitability Metrics - The adjusted gross margin improved to 58.0%, a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percentage points [8] - The adjusted operating profit for FY2025 Q1 was $232 million, a year-on-year increase of 79% [8] - The diluted EPS for FY2025 Q1 was $0.27, exceeding market expectations of $0.16 [8] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of $6.09 billion, $6.96 billion, and $7.90 billion for the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 14%, and 14% [10] - The projected diluted EPS for 2025 is $0.71, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [10]