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国海证券晨会纪要-20260128
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-28 00:58
Group 1: Financial Information Services - The market is recovering, and AI empowerment is driving the continuous release of value in financial information services, with significant profit growth expected for Tonghuashun, projecting a net profit of 2.735 to 3.282 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 80% [3][4] - The increase in profitability is attributed to the company's investment in AI technologies, enhancing product competitiveness and user experience, alongside a rise in demand for financial information services as investor confidence improves [3][4] Group 2: Advertising and Marketing - Focus on the exit from Shuhua, with a significant impairment of 2.153 billion yuan recorded, leading to a net profit reduction of 2.529 billion yuan for 2025, while the company anticipates a net profit increase of 565 million yuan in Q1 2026 [7][10] - The company maintains a high dividend policy, committing to a minimum annual dividend of 80% of net profit, with a projected dividend yield of 4.2% based on current stock prices [11] Group 3: Banking Sector - Hangzhou Bank expects a revenue growth of 1.09% and a net profit growth of 12.05% for 2025, with a significant reduction in overdue loans and an increase in non-interest income [15][17] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with overdue loans significantly reduced, indicating improved asset quality [17][19] - China Merchants Bank anticipates a slight revenue growth of 0.01% and a net profit growth of 1.21% for 2025, with a stable deposit growth rate and a steady non-performing loan ratio [20][22] Group 4: Independent Medical Laboratory Industry - Aidi Kang Holdings is a pioneer in the independent medical laboratory (ICL) industry in China, providing standardized third-party testing services through a nationwide network of 34 self-operated laboratories [24][25] - The company has announced the acquisition of a global CRO focused on oncology and immuno-oncology for 204 million USD, enhancing its service capabilities in core disease areas [24][25] Group 5: Aviation Industry - The aviation industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with ticket prices stabilizing after a decline, indicating potential for revenue growth for airlines [27][29] - Domestic travel demand is gradually recovering, with business travel increasing and international travel showing strong growth, suggesting a positive outlook for airline performance [31][32]
杭州银行(600926):2025年业绩快报点评:中收占比提升,逾期贷款占比压降显著
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-27 12:35
2026 年 01 月 27 日 公司研究 评级:买入(维持) 研究所: 证券分析师: 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师: 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 中收占比提升,逾期贷款占比压降显著 ——杭州银行(600926)2025 年业绩快报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2026/01/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 杭州银行 | 2.2% | -2.0% | 11.2% | | 沪深 300 | 1.1% | 1.0% | 22.8% | | 市场数据 | | | 2026/01/26 | | 当前价格(元) | | | 15.58 | | 52 周价格区间(元) | | | 13.58-17.85 | | 总市值(百万) | | | 112,939.46 | | 流通市值(百万) | | | 112,939.46 | | 总股本(万股) | | | 724,900.25 | | ...
分众传媒(002027):公司动态事件点评:计提减值退出数禾,不改主业发展韧性
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-27 12:03
2026 年 01 月 27 日 公司研究 评级:买入(维持) [Table_Title] 计提减值退出数禾,不改主业发展韧性 ——分众传媒(002027)公司动态事件点评 最近一年走势 事件: 1 月 23 日,公司公告针对上海数禾计提长期股权投资减值 21.53 亿元, 于 2025 年第四季度按权益法计提数禾的亏损 3.76 亿元,导致公司 2025 年净利润减少 25.29 亿元,2026Q1 归母净利润增加 5.65 亿元,公司同 时减资全面退出上海数禾。 投资要点: 公司维持高分红,新潮收购即将完成。 此次减值为非经常性损益,与公司主业无关。公司此前承诺年分红 金额不低于扣非净利润 80%,据此假设下年股息率 4.2%(依据 2026 年 1 月 23 日股价)。此外,1 月 13 日公司公告收购新潮传媒获深 交所受理,收购完成后双方在大小客户资源互补、高低线媒资覆盖、 表现 1M 3M 12M 分众传媒 3.3% -0.1% 20.4% 沪深 300 1.1% 1.0% 22.8% 市场数据 2026/01/26 当前价格(元) 7.42 52 周价格区间(元) 6.21-8.76 总市值(百万 ...
同花顺(300033):公司动态研究:市场回暖与AI赋能双重驱动,金融信息服务价值持续释放
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-27 12:03
2026 年 01 月 27 日 公司研究 评级:买入(维持) 研究所: 证券分析师: 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 : 谢婧茹 S0350125070015 xiejr01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 市场回暖与 AI 赋能双重驱动,金融信息服务价 值持续释放 ——同花顺(300033)公司动态研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | 2026/01/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M 12M | | 同花顺 | | 8.9% | -1.9% 18.4% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.1% | 1.0% 22.8% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/26 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格(元) | 355.03 | | 周价格区间(元) 52 | 232.00-435.00 | | 总市值(百万) | 190,864.13 | | 流通市值(百万) | 111,177.84 | | 总股本(万股) | 53,760.00 | | 流通股 ...
招商银行(600036):2025年业绩快报点评:2025Q4营收利润加速增长,预计净息差趋势继续向好
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-27 12:03
2026 年 01 月 27 日 公司研究 评级:买入(维持) 研究所: 证券分析师: 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师: 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2025Q4 营收利润加速增长,预计净息差趋势继 续向好 《招商银行(600036)2025 年三季报点评:Q3 营收同比增速转正,资产质量稳中向好(买入)* 股份制银行Ⅱ*林加力,徐凝碧》——2025-10-30 《招商银行(600036)2025 年中报点评:净利润 增速转正,资产质量稳中向好(买入)*股份制银 行Ⅱ*林加力,徐凝碧》——2025-09-02 《招商银行(600036)2024 年年报点评:资产规 模、客户存款和零售客户 AUM 增速突破两位数(买 ——招商银行(600036)2025 年业绩快报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | 2026/01/26 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 招商银行 | ...
国海证券晨会纪要-20260127
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-27 01:04
研究所: 证券分析师: 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 2026 年 01 月 27 日 晨会纪要 [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2026 年第 14 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 营收业绩高增,看好高端产品出货量持续提升--思特威/半导体(688213/212701) 科创板公司普通报告 日美错位下的信用重构:告别增长定价--策略周报 2026 年电力设备年度展望:数据中心强化电力基建需求,出海仍是企业长期增长驱动力--行业 PPT 报告 丛林法则,零和博弈——谈债市策略的嬗变与应对--固收 PPT 长债修复后,债市情绪仍偏谨慎--债券研究周报 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、营收业绩高增,看好高端产品出货量持续提升--思特威/半导体 (688213/212701) 科创板公司普通报告 分析师:傅麒丞 S0350524080001 事件: 思特威于 2026 年 1 月 25 日发布 2025 年年度业绩预告:公司预计 2025 年实现营业收入 88~92 亿元,同比 +47%~54%;实现归母净利润 9.76~10.31 亿元,同比+149%~1 ...
债券研究周报:长债修复后,债市情绪仍偏谨慎-20260126
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-26 15:37
2026 年 01 月 26 日 债券研究周报 证券分析师: 颜子琦 S0350525090002 [Table_Title] 长债修复后,债市情绪仍偏谨慎 卖方视角,债市情绪有所回落。基于对 30 家卖方机构观点的统计分析, 债市情绪有所回落,部分卖方机构观点转为中性。从市场情绪的角度出 发,目前卖方转为持中性偏多态度,情绪较(01 月 13 日-01 月 19 日) 下降,5 家偏多,22 家中性,3 家偏空,其中:①17%机构持偏多态度, 认为宽松预期升温与资金利率下行确立利好环境,叠加基本面支撑及反 向布局机会,债市虽有顶但下有空间,总体呈现短空长多格局;②73% 机构持中性态度,认为基本面回暖与供给压力构成压制,但配置力量及 宽松资金面提供支撑,监管合意区间约束下行空间,债市或维持区间震 荡;③10%机构持偏空态度,认为"十五五"时期信心缺失有望反转, 长期低利率预期面临修正,短期在供给冲击及风险偏好回升压制下,债 市仍存下跌压力。 买方视角,情绪指数开始回升。基于对 26 家固收买方机构观点的梳理, 我们发现买方观点中偏多观点数量增加,看中性仍是主流,整体观点中 性。从当前市场买方观点来看,5 家 ...
谈债市策略的嬗变与应对:丛林法则,零和博弈
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-26 14:04
Core Insights - The report addresses three main issues: recent bond market review, changes in institutional behavior, and future outlook for the bond market [2] - The bond market is undergoing a transformation characterized by a dual behavior of institutions [3] Group 1: Institutional Behavior Changes - The supply side pressure is evident with local government bond issuance expected to reach 1.94 trillion yuan in Q1 2026, with high issuance volumes in January and March [5] - The demand side shows a deterioration in traditional allocation demand, with major banks and insurance companies showing decreased willingness to absorb long-term bonds [5] - The trading side indicates a shift where rural commercial banks are retreating while brokerages are becoming more active, particularly in trading 10Y and 30Y bonds [16][17] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The issuance plan for government bonds in Q1 2026 is heavily concentrated in February and March, with various maturities being offered [6] - The report highlights that large banks are focusing on realizing profits from older bonds, while insurance institutions are primarily buying local bonds instead of national bonds [7] - The trading volume remains low, and the volatility is expected to decrease further as banks increase their trading in 10Y bonds [23] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that the bond market may experience further adjustments, with brokerages likely to increase their trading of long-term bonds [13] - There is a notable pressure for profit-taking among joint-stock banks, particularly in 10Y national bonds, which may influence future trading strategies [14] - The report anticipates that the yield spread between 30Y and 10Y bonds may widen, while the spread between 10Y national bonds and national development bonds may narrow [23]
日美错位下的信用重构:告别增长定价
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-26 12:35
2026 年 01 月 26 日 策略周报 研究所: 证券分析师: 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师: 袁野 S0350525030001 yuany03@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 日美错位下的信用重构:告别增长定价 最近一年走势 相关报告 《信用重启与双峰共振——2026 年海外年度策略* 袁野,赵阳》——2026-01-12 《全球流动性"祛魅",中国资产"重估"*赵阳, 袁野》——2025-12-20 《策略周报:近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳,袁野》——2025-11-29 ——2025-11-16 《AH 溢价跌破位,港股在交易什么?——策略专 题报告*胡国鹏,袁野,袁稻雨》——2025-10-12 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题:1、研判美联储主席博弈逻辑与胜率切 换 ;2、剖析日本汇债双杀成因及展望 ;3、信用溢价逻辑下的定价逻 辑切换。 核心结论: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 美联储主席提名博弈进入"买方实用主义"新阶段,里德尔成为平衡 增长与中性利率的关键锚点。截至 2026 年 1 月 2 ...
数据中心强化电力基建需求,出海仍是企业长期增长驱动力:2026年电力设备年度展望
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-26 12:35
证券研究报告 2026年01月26日 电力设备 2026年电力设备年度展望:数据中心强化电力基建 需求,出海仍是企业长期增长驱动力 评级:推荐(维持) 李航(证券分析师) 王刚(证券分析师) S0350521120006 S0350524020001 lih11@ghzq.com.cn wangg06@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -17% 0% 17% 34% 51% 68% 2025/01/… 2025/04/… 2025/07/… 2025/10/… 2026/01/… 电力设备 沪深300 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 3 核心提要 《新能源行业周报:马斯克推动太空算力布局,美国本土光伏产能建设加速 (推荐)*电力设备*李航,邱迪,王刚,李昂》——2026-01-24 《电力设备行业周报:国网"十五五"投资预计高增,AIDC驱动北美电力紧 缺持续(推荐)*电力设备*李航,邱迪,王刚,李昂》——2026-01-18 《电力设备行业周报:太空光伏催化不断落地,国内AIDC建设有望加速(推 荐)*电力设备*李航,邱迪,王刚,李昂》——2026-01-11 沪深300表现 | 表 ...