2026 年 01 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李振方 S0350524080003 | | | lizf@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 2025 年公司归母净利润同比大幅提升，看好制 冷剂景气持续 ——巨化股份（600160）2025 年业绩预增点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 巨化股份 | | 4.4% | 9.9% | 55.6% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) [Table_Title] 供需边际改善，煤价具备支撑 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2026/01/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | 2.4% | -4.4% | 6.5% | | 沪深 300 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业动态研究：2025Q4 煤炭基金重仓 股持仓占比 0.36%，板块景气提升、注重底部配置 价值（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》——2026-01-24 《煤炭开采行业 12 月数据全面解读：生产降、进 口升，火电依旧疲弱（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》— —2026-01-19 《煤炭开采行业周报：寒潮来临叠加节前停产预 期，煤价仍有支撑（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》—— 2026-01-18 《煤炭开采行业周报：钢厂复产叠加冬储补库，焦 煤价格存在支撑（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》—— 2026-01-11 《炭火暖意，天平微倾 ——煤炭行业 2026 年投资 策略（推荐） ...

证券研究报告 2026年01月24日 资产配置专题报告： 黄金定价重构——估值锚、溢价分析与路径推演 林加力(证券分析师) 许潇琦(证券分析师) 刘子路(联系人) S0350524100005 S0350525080004 S0350125080017 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn xuxq01@ghzq.com.cn liuzl02@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -9% -2% 6% 13% 20% 27% 2025/01/242025/03/242025/05/242025/07/24 2025/09/24 2025/11/24 沪深300 《公募REITs月报：一级市场项目进展顺利，二级市场收益承压*林加力，许 潇琦》——2026-01-06 《2026年大类资产配置展望：动能切换，增长扩散*林加力，袁雨琦，许潇 琦》——2025-12-18 《2025年中央经济工作会议解读：实施城乡居民增收计划，推动投资止跌回 稳*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-12-12 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

2026 年 01 月 24 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 李航 S0350521120006 | | | | lih11@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 邱迪 S0350522010002 | | | | qiud@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 王刚 S0350524020001 | | | | wangg06@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 李昂 S0350525030002 | | | | lia@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 吴亦辰 S0350125030017 | | | | wuyc@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 马斯克推动太空算力布局，美国本土光伏产能建 设加速 ——新能源行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2026/01/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 电力设备 | 10.6% | 14. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to experience significant growth, akin to a "Chat GPT moment," driven by advancements in technology and increasing market demand. The report emphasizes the importance of core component manufacturers and companies actively entering the humanoid robot sector [16] - Key developments include Tesla's plan to start selling its humanoid robot, Optimus, by the end of next year, and Microsoft's launch of its first robot model, Rho-alpha, which enhances adaptability and reliability in robotic operations [3][12][16] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Tesla plans to sell its humanoid robot, Optimus, to the public by the end of next year, with current models already performing simple tasks in factories [3] - Juwu Intelligent has submitted its prospectus for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, ranking second in China's intelligent embodied industrial robot solutions market with a 5.9% market share [4] - Yupan Intelligent completed a Pre-IPO+ financing round of 513 million RMB, focusing on core capabilities and overseas market expansion [5] - Being Beyond released the cross-entity VLA model Being-H0.5, which is open-sourced and aims to enhance robotic training and evaluation [6] Market Performance - The humanoid robot industry is witnessing rapid product iterations and business collaborations, with a notable increase in the number of companies and products in the market. By 2025, over 140 companies are expected to produce more than 330 humanoid robot products [11][12] - The report highlights the performance of the power equipment sector, which has shown significant growth over the past year, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [7] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with core component expertise and those actively entering the humanoid robot market, including Sanhua Intelligent Control, Top Group, and others involved in actuator and sensor production [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.01-1.02 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10%-11% [4] - In Q4 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 201-209 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15%-20% [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing its competitive advantages through various strategies, including deepening its 123 strategy, upgrading service quality, increasing investment in technological innovation, and implementing digital transformation [5] - The company has shown significant improvement in cash flow, with a rapid increase in operating cash flow and optimized collection quality [5] - Strategic mergers and international expansion projects are expected to gradually release growth momentum in the long term [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 6.608 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 9% [6] - The projected net profit for 2026 is 1.171 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 15% [6] - The company maintains a stable gross margin of 49% across the forecast period [7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 27 for 2025, decreasing to 20 for 2027 [7]

2026 年 01 月 22 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2026 年第 12 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2025Q4 业绩&2026Q1 指引超预期，资本支出攀升进入加速扩产期--台积电/海外(TSM/2180) 点评报告（港 股美股） 中价格带茶饮强阿尔法，成长空间广阔--古茗/社会服务(01364/2146) 点评报告（港股美股） 2025Q4 业绩预计同环比减亏明显，2026 年新车周期可期--江淮汽车/商用车(600418/212806) 公司点评 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、2025Q4 业绩&2026Q1 指引超预期，资本支出攀升进入加速扩产期-- 台积电/海外(TSM/2180) 点评报告（港股美股） 分析师：陈梦竹 S0350521090003 联系人：邱怡瑄 S0350124070030 事件: 2026 年 1 月 15 日，台积电发布 2025 年 Q4 财报：2025Q4，公司实现收入 10,460.9 亿元新台币/337.3 亿美 元（新台币价 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][11]. Core Insights - The company, 古茗 (Gu Ming), is positioned in the tea beverage sector with significant growth potential, driven by rapid product innovation and a strong supply chain [3][7]. - The company has implemented a new franchise policy to encourage existing franchisees to open more stores, which is expected to enhance local brand visibility and operational efficiency [6][8]. - The company has a robust research and development team, with approximately 120 members, focusing on product development and supply chain optimization [7]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 134 billion, RMB 163 billion, and RMB 198 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a net profit of RMB 27.5 billion, RMB 28.4 billion, and RMB 35.4 billion [9][10]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 101% in 2025, 76% in 2026, and 71% in 2027, while net profit growth is anticipated at 86% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 24% in 2027 [10][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 22 in 2025 to 17 in 2027, indicating potential value appreciation [10][11]. Market Position and Strategy - As of November 2025, the company has 13,117 stores, representing a year-on-year increase of 34%, with significant presence in key provinces [9]. - The company’s strategy of regional clustering for store openings is expected to enhance consumer reach and operational management [8][9]. - The company has established a strong supply chain with direct sourcing and self-operated logistics, ensuring product quality and cost control [7].

研究所： 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 邱怡瑄 S0350124070030 qiuyx@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2025Q4 业绩&2026Q1 指引超预期， 资本支出攀升进入加速扩产期 ——台积电（TSM）2025Q4 财报点评 2026 年 01 月 21 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 2026 年 1 月 15 日，台积电发布 2025 年 Q4 财报：2025Q4，公司实现 收入 10,460.9 亿元新台币/337.3 亿美元（新台币价值 QoQ+5.7%， YoY+20.5% ） ； 归 母 净 利 润 5,057.4 亿 元 新 台 币 （ QoQ+11.8% ， YoY+35.0%）；晶圆季出货量（等效 12 英寸晶圆）396.1 万片（QoQ-3.0%， YoY+15.9%）。 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TSM.N | 13.2% | 10.2% | 56.7% | | 标普 500 | -0.6% | 0.9% ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.2 trillion yuan, with a nominal growth of 5% year-on-year, surpassing global averages and achieving significant milestones during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][5][12] - The economic growth rate showed a pattern of high growth in the first half of the year, with quarterly GDP growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [4][5] - The contribution of net exports to economic growth was 32.7%, indicating strong external demand despite trade tensions [5][12] Group 2: Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with final consumption contributing approximately 52% to economic growth [6][7] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted sales in various categories, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment rising by 11% and furniture by 14.6% [6][7] - Service consumption grew rapidly, with a 5.5% increase in service retail sales, highlighting a shift towards experiential and health-related spending [7][8] Group 3: Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment in 2025 was 48.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment down by 2.2% and manufacturing investment up by 0.6% [9][10] - High-tech industry investment saw significant growth, with information services up by 28.4% and aerospace manufacturing by 16.9% [11] - The government plans to increase central budget investment in 2026, which is expected to support overall investment recovery [10][11] Group 4: Trade and Export Performance - In 2025, China's total foreign trade reached 45.47 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 6.1% to 26.99 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [12][13] - The structure of exports has shifted towards high-value-added products, with mechanical and electrical products accounting for 61% of total exports [13][14] - Trade dependency on the U.S. has decreased, with exports to the U.S. dropping to 11.1% of total exports in 2025 [14] Group 5: Automotive Industry Developments - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase in stock performance, with the automotive index rising by 0.5% [15][16] - The introduction of the "price commitment" mechanism for electric vehicles is expected to stabilize sales in Europe and promote high-end and localized production [16][18] - Several provinces have opened channels for 2026 vehicle replacement subsidies, indicating government support for the automotive market [17][18] Group 6: AI and Pharmaceutical Innovations - The collaboration between NVIDIA and Eli Lilly aims to leverage AI in drug discovery, with a projected investment of up to $1 billion over five years [24] - AI is expected to transform traditional drug development processes, shifting from labor-intensive methods to data-driven approaches [24] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience, with a 7.08% return in early 2026, despite recent adjustments in stock prices [25]