2025 年 09 月 08 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 杨丽蓉 S0350524090008 | | | yanglr@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 2025H1 业绩同比+20%，海外并购交易完成 ——梅花生物（600873）公司动态研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/09/05 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 梅花生物 | -3.3% | 2.4% | 19.7% | | 沪深 300 | 8.7% | 15.0% | 36.9% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/09/05 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 10.83 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10][11] Core Views - The company is experiencing a gradual production ramp-up of high-end new materials, which is expected to drive long-term growth [4][7] - In the first half of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.35% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in overall revenue [5][10] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.42% year-on-year [5] - The functional materials segment generated revenue of 1.469 billion yuan, down 9.55% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 38.68% [5] - The life sciences and pharmaceutical products segment saw revenue of 376 million yuan, an increase of 20.80% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 38.56% [5] - The company's net profit for the first half of 2025 was 218 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.35% [5] - The second quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 1.009 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.95% but an increase of 17.12% quarter-on-quarter [6] Growth and Investment Outlook - The company is investing 287 million yuan to expand its production capacity for photoresists and polyimide used in displays, with a total capacity increase of 1,451 tons [7] - The company has initiated trial production in its semiconductor materials project, with other production lines progressing as planned [7] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.084 billion yuan, 4.760 billion yuan, and 5.328 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 448 million yuan, 538 million yuan, and 610 million yuan [10][11]

2025 年 09 月 08 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 杨丽蓉 S0350524090008 | | | yanglr@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 2025Q2 业绩环比改善，美国基地有序推进 ——山东赫达（002810）公司动态研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/09/05 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 山东赫达 | 1.0% | 20.7% | 16.0% | | 沪深 300 | 8.7% | 15.0% | 36.9% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/09/05 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 13.78 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in gross margin in Q2, with a focus on its "1+2+X" strategy, positioning itself as a leader in smart hardware [2][5] - The company is expected to benefit from the AI wave at the edge, with growth opportunities in smart devices, AIoT, AI PCs, and automotive electronics [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 19.908 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.65%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 356 million, an increase of 5.01% [5] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 10.529 billion, down 11.85%, with a net profit of 201 million, down 4.31% [5] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 8.14%, up 1.64 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q2 2025, it was 8.76%, up 2.70 percentage points year-on-year [5] Business Segment Performance - The smartphone business saw revenue of 14.022 billion in H1 2025, down 22.28%, but with an improved gross margin of 6.85%, up 1.79 percentage points [5] - The AIoT business grew rapidly, achieving revenue of 3.321 billion, up 45.26%, although its gross margin decreased to 12.81%, down 2.58 percentage points [5] - The tablet business generated revenue of 1.900 billion, up 14.57%, with a gross margin of 6.58%, down 2.15 percentage points [5] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 46.810 billion, 53.430 billion, and 66.691 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 1%, 14%, and 25% respectively [6][7] - Net profit projections for the same period are 651 million, 951 million, and 1.302 billion, with growth rates of 30%, 46%, and 37% respectively [6][7] - The expected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30, 21, and 15 times respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue year-on-year for the first half of 2025, but a significant increase of 16% in net profit attributable to shareholders [2][6] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for new energy buses in the overseas market and the domestic market's potential from vehicle replacement policies [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 16.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.94 billion yuan, an increase of 15.6% [6] - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 51.3% [6] - The company’s bus sales in H1 2025 increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with total sales of 21,000 units [6] - The average revenue per vehicle in Q2 2025 was 789,000 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [6] Sales and Market Dynamics - The company’s sales of large and medium buses decreased by 4.8% year-on-year in H1 2025, while light bus sales surged by 74.2% [6] - The export of large and medium buses in Q2 2025 was 4,000 units, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while domestic sales fell by 15.6% [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 42.5 billion, 47.5 billion, and 55 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 12%, and 16% [8][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 4.9 billion, 5.7 billion, and 6.5 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 20%, 15%, and 13% respectively [8][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 2.23, 2.58, and 2.92 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 12, and 10 times [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][26]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 shows stability and improvement, with a focus on the recovery of polyester filament profitability [3][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the optimization of the competitive landscape in the polyester filament industry and the support from its projects in Indonesia [12]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.097 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.93% [6]. - The company reported a net profit of 486 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 0.04% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20.5% [7]. - The gross profit margin for POY in H1 2025 was 8.11%, an increase of 2.50 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Product Segment Performance - For H1 2025, POY revenue was 27 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 8.11% [6]. - FDY revenue was 6.7 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 3.59% [6]. - DTY revenue was 4.2 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 7.19% [6]. Future Growth Prospects - The company is advancing new projects, including the completion of equipment installation for the Fujian Henghai CP1 project and the ongoing construction of the Xinjiang coal mine resource, which is expected to support future growth [10][12]. - The company forecasts operating revenues of 101.3 billion yuan, 105.3 billion yuan, and 111.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11][12]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The polyester filament industry is expected to benefit from a reduction in competition due to slower supply expansion and a demand characterized by essential needs [8][12]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the polyester filament industry, which is anticipated to enhance its growth potential [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's tire production and sales volume have declined, leading to a short-term pressure on net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025 [2][3] - The company achieved revenue of 4.119 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.24% [2] - The company is expanding its Moroccan project, which is expected to contribute significantly to future growth [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 672 million yuan, a decrease of 37.64% year-on-year [3] - The sales expense ratio was 1.69%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points year-on-year; the management expense ratio was 2.43%, up 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 26 million yuan, down 96.30% year-on-year, primarily due to increased raw material procurement costs related to the Moroccan project [3] Production and Sales - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 15.5695 million tires, a decrease of 3.21% year-on-year, with sales of 14.8703 million tires, down 1.5% year-on-year [2] - The average tire price was 276.56 yuan per tire, an increase of 1.70% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a global production capacity "golden triangle" in China, Thailand, and Morocco, enhancing its international competitiveness [8] - The company aims to establish eight smart manufacturing bases, three R&D centers, and three user experience centers over the next decade as part of its "833plus" strategy [8] - The company has entered the supply chains of major international automotive brands, enhancing its brand value [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 10.366 billion yuan, 12.131 billion yuan, and 12.956 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10] - The projected net profits for the same years are 1.815 billion yuan, 2.313 billion yuan, and 2.746 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 9, and 7 [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11][50] Core Views - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with a 63.93% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 2.543 billion yuan, and a 203.71% increase in net profit, amounting to 456 million yuan [3][4] - The growth in profitability is primarily attributed to a substantial increase in phosphate rock sales, which saw a revenue increase of 455.79% year-on-year [4] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 5.4 billion yuan, 6.3 billion yuan, and 7.0 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 1.2 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan, and 1.7 billion yuan for the same years [11][48] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.431 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.94%, and a net profit of 285 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 192.98% [3][5] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 37.72%, an increase of 15.61 percentage points year-on-year [3][5] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 754 million yuan, a significant increase of 224.05% year-on-year, driven by increased sales collections [4] Product Performance - Phosphate rock sales generated 998 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 70.81% [4] - The compound fertilizer segment generated 1.497 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 14.53% [4] - The average price of phosphate rock in Q2 2025 was 1,020 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase of 1% year-on-year [5][19] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.60 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to approximately 154.74 million yuan, which represents 33.92% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in revenue and profit margins in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 11.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.59%, and a net profit of 511 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.60% [4][14] - The company is enhancing its integrated advantages in the nitrogen and phosphorus industry chain, with significant progress in upstream resource projects [12][14] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's conventional compound fertilizer revenue reached 3.241 billion yuan, up 10.36% year-on-year, while new compound fertilizers and phosphorus fertilizers saw revenue of 3.981 billion yuan, up 32.50% year-on-year [5] - The company's net cash flow from operating activities in the first half of 2025 was 859 million yuan, a decrease of 1.11% year-on-year [5] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.689 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.94% year-on-year to 257 million yuan [6][7] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index over various time frames, with a 1-month performance of 2.3%, 3-month performance of 33.4%, and a 12-month performance of 56.4% [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 24.1 billion yuan in 2025, 26.3 billion yuan in 2026, and 28.2 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits projected at 1 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan, and 1.9 billion yuan respectively [14][16] - The company's integrated strategy in the nitrogen and phosphorus industry chain is expected to further enhance its competitive advantages as it completes its upstream projects [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11]. Core Views - The company has experienced significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 35.28%, reaching 3.36 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 51.54%, amounting to 536 million yuan [3][4]. - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to the sales of feed-grade dicalcium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate [4]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 7 billion yuan, 7.7 billion yuan, and 8.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 1.26 billion yuan, 1.52 billion yuan, and 1.82 billion yuan for the same years [11][43]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.63% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.06% [3][5]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 33.08%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.31 percentage points [3]. - The company’s average return on equity (ROE) for Q2 2025 was 5.08%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.24 percentage points [3]. Product Performance - The revenue from phosphate rock reached 233 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 81.21% [4]. - Feed-grade dicalcium phosphate generated revenue of 844 million yuan, with a gross margin of 32.60%, while monoammonium phosphate revenue was 715 million yuan, with a gross margin of 44.57% [4]. - The average price of phosphate rock in Q3 2025 was 1,020 yuan per ton, maintaining a high level compared to previous periods [9]. Market Position and Capacity Expansion - The company has a production capacity of over 3.2 million tons of phosphate rock per year and is expanding its capacity with ongoing projects [10]. - The company is expected to benefit from the stable operation of its phosphate projects and high phosphate rock prices, which will enhance its performance in the upcoming quarters [9][10].