2025 年 12 月 03 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 205 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 丘钛科技（1478.HK）公司深度报告：摄像头与指纹识别模组结构优化，可持续发展能力向好--丘钛科技/光 学光电子(01478/212703) 公司 PPT 报告（港股美股） 三代制冷剂仍是未来长期主流，供需缺口有望进一步扩大--行业动态研究 舜宇光学科技(2382.HK)深度报告：坚定深化高端产品布局与价值挖掘，盈利能力结构性改善--舜宇光学科技 /光学光电子(02382/212703) 公司 PPT 报告（港股美股） 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、丘钛科技（1478.HK）公司深度报告：摄像头与指纹识别模组结构优化， 可持续发展能力向好--丘钛科技/光学光电子(01478/212703) 公司 PPT 报告 （港股美股） 分析师：陈重伊 S0350525010002 分析师：陈梦竹 S0350521090003 本报告重点解决了以下几个核心问题：丘钛科技如何进行产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the refrigerant industry, indicating a positive outlook based on supply-demand dynamics and industry performance [2][12]. Core Insights - The third-generation refrigerants are expected to remain the long-term mainstream due to their efficiency and cost advantages over fourth-generation refrigerants, which face higher production costs and lower efficiency [9][10]. - The supply-demand gap for refrigerants is anticipated to widen further, driven by increasing demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors, alongside supply constraints from production quotas [10][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The refrigerant industry has shown a significant price increase for major refrigerants due to quota restrictions, with R32 priced at 63,000 CNY/ton, R134a at 55,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 16,000 CNY/ton as of December 1, 2025 [4][10]. Production Quotas - High utilization rates for R32 and R134a production quotas were reported, with R32 at 96.71% and R134a at 94.17% for the first ten months of 2025 [5][6]. - The 2026 production quotas for HFCs remain unchanged, but companies with flexible quota allocations are expected to benefit from the adjustments [6][7]. Demand Growth - The domestic air conditioning market has seen a production increase of 2.46% year-on-year, with a total of approximately 230 million units produced from January to October 2025 [10]. - The automotive sector is also recovering, with a 10.80% increase in production during the same period, further driving demand for refrigerants [11]. Future Projections - The internal demand gap for R32 and R134a is projected to increase from -1.24 million tons in 2025 to -2.39 million tons by 2027, indicating a tightening supply situation [11][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring individual companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Chemical, and others for potential investment opportunities [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Sunyu Optical Technology (2382.HK), marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - Sunyu Optical Technology is positioned as a global leader in optical components and products, focusing on high-end product development and value extraction, leading to structural improvements in profitability [6][10]. - The company is transitioning from a manufacturer of optical products to a provider of intelligent optical system solutions, enhancing its international presence and digital transformation efforts [6][33]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Sunyu Optical Technology has established a strong technological barrier and competitive advantage through a multi-faceted strategy, achieving rapid growth [6]. - The company has a comprehensive optical industry chain layout, emphasizing technological innovation and high-end product iterations, maintaining a 25% share of high-end mobile phone lenses [6][32]. Mobile Business - The mobile product segment remains the core revenue driver, with a focus on high-end market penetration despite a stable global smartphone market [7][37]. - The company has maintained its leading position in the smartphone lens market, with revenue growth driven by product structure optimization [7][37]. Automotive Business - The automotive market is experiencing robust growth, with advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) driving demand for vehicle-mounted cameras [8][10]. - Sunyu Optical Technology holds a leading position in the automotive lens market, with a 32.3% market share and significant growth potential in module development [8][10]. Other Businesses - The company is expanding into various sectors, including security, microscopy, robotics, XR, and industrial and medical testing, with a notable growth trajectory in the XR market [9][10]. - The integration of AI and technology reuse is expected to drive both short-term and long-term growth potential in these segments [9][10]. Financial Analysis - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 426.03 billion, 475.03 billion, and 526.88 billion yuan, with net profits of 36.74 billion, 43.68 billion, and 51.12 billion yuan respectively [10][12]. - The company is expected to maintain a P/E ratio that reflects its strong market position and growth prospects, with a forecasted average P/E of 15.4x for 2025-2027 [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the development of optical imaging, fingerprint recognition modules, and automotive electronic components, aiming to enhance its product matrix and transition from a consumer electronics imaging solution provider to a core component supplier for smart hardware [6][15]. - The company is expected to benefit from optical innovation and the wave of automotive intelligence, leading to steady improvements in profitability and market share [15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is committed to the synergistic development of imaging and fingerprint recognition, focusing on high-end manufacturing upgrades [6][15]. - It aims to grow into a technology enterprise providing integrated machine vision and human vision solutions [15]. Mobile Camera Module Business - The company holds a leading global market share in mobile camera modules, with a focus on enhancing the structure of its products [7][27]. - The market for mobile camera modules is expected to continue its stable growth, driven by increasing smartphone penetration and consumption upgrades [30][32]. - The sales proportion of high-end mobile camera modules (32M pixels and above) reached 53.4% in the first half of 2025 [7][27]. Other Camera Module Business - The IoT and automotive camera markets are expanding rapidly, with the company seeing a 47.9% year-on-year growth in sales for these modules [8][36]. - The global automotive camera module market is projected to reach USD 27.3 billion by 2025, with the company aiming to replicate its mobile camera market position in this sector [8][36]. Fingerprint Recognition Module Business - The market for ultrasonic fingerprint recognition modules is gradually expanding, with significant improvements in sales and product structure leading to increased gross margins [9][46]. - The company reported that its sales of ultrasonic fingerprint recognition modules in the first half of 2025 exceeded the total sales for 2024 [9][48]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at RMB 20.447 billion, RMB 22.854 billion, and RMB 26.331 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 714 million, RMB 909 million, and RMB 1.138 billion [10][12]. - The company's P/E ratios for the same years are expected to be 14.5x, 11.3x, and 9.1x, which are lower than the industry averages [10][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Meituan's food delivery losses have peaked, and there is a focus on value recovery amid dynamic competition [3][4] - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4%, but incurred an operating loss of 19.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 244% [3][4] - The core local business revenue decreased by 3% to 67.4 billion yuan, with significant losses attributed to intensified market competition and increased promotional expenses [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights that Meituan's food delivery business saw record high daily active users and monthly transaction users, indicating a robust growth in core user base [5] - Meituan's flash purchase business revenue grew by 33% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with significant increases in user transaction frequency and average order value [5][6] - The hotel and travel business revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with over 200 service categories covered, and the platform has accumulated over 25 billion real consumption reviews [6] Group 3 - The report projects that Meituan's revenue for 2025-2027 will be 365.4 billion, 412.0 billion, and 467.9 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates of -18.4 billion, +14.5 billion, and +37.8 billion yuan [7] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Meituan, with a target market value of 737 billion yuan for 2026, corresponding to a target price of 121 yuan per share [7] Group 4 - The report on Li Auto indicates that Q3 2025 revenue was 27.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, with a net loss of 6.24 billion yuan [18][19] - Li Auto's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, with vehicle gross margin at 15.5% [19][20] - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7% to 37% [20][21]

Report Overview - The report is the Bond Research Weekly released on December 1, 2025, focusing on the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers from November 25 to December 1 [4]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From November 25 - December 1, the bond market seller sentiment declined slightly, the divergence decreased, the buyer sentiment turned optimistic, and the bearish views of both buyers and sellers disappeared this week. The year - end front - running market in the bond market is approaching, and the allocation value has emerged as the interest rate rises to the top of the central bank's desirable range. However, sellers are more cautious about the front - running market due to the sluggish institutional allocation willingness [4]. Section Summaries Seller Perspective - The bond market sentiment declined slightly. Based on the statistics of 20 seller institutions, the sentiment declined, many views turned neutral, and there were no bearish views this week. Currently, sellers are mostly neutral - bullish, with 10% being bullish, 20% being moderately bullish, and 70% being neutral [5]. - 10% of institutions are bullish, believing that strong expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, weak domestic economic data, falling housing prices, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle are favorable factors [5]. - 20% of institutions are moderately bullish, citing the year - end "calendar effect", institutional allocation demand, front - running and increasing positions, and weak economic fundamentals as positive factors [5]. - 70% of institutions are neutral, considering that factors such as policy uncertainty, risk preference, stock - bond seesaw, monetary policy attitude, and asset shortage are intertwined, and the market may enter a low - volatility shock state [5]. Buyer Perspective - The sentiment index turned from negative to positive. Based on the views of 25 fixed - income buyer institutions, the number of moderately bullish views increased, and there were no bearish views. Overall, buyers are neutral - bullish, with 36% being moderately bullish and 64% being neutral [6]. - 36% of institutions are moderately bullish, believing that the interest rate has reached the upper limit of the desirable range, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the risk preference may decline [6]. - 64% of institutions are neutral, citing policy uncertainty, institutional behavior disturbances, insufficient odds, high operation difficulty, lack of a one - sided main line, and the market entering a wait - and - see period [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive sector [2] Core Insights - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the week of November 24 to November 28, 2025, with a sector index increase of 3.2% compared to the index's 1.4% rise [5][16] - The report highlights the submission of an IPO application by Avita Technology to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in its global strategy [12][30] - The report notes that the new energy vehicle sales reached 177.2 million units in October 2025, accounting for 51.6% of total new vehicle sales [34] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector index increased by 3.2% from November 24 to November 28, 2025, with passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, parts, and services showing respective increases of 2.6%, 2.0%, 3.7%, and 3.9% [5][16] - The report indicates that major players like Li Auto, Xpeng, NIO, and Geely saw stock price increases of 4.8%, 6.9%, 1.3%, 12.2%, and 1.4% respectively during the same period [5][16] Company Performance - NIO reported a revenue of 21.79 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, while its net loss narrowed to 3.48 billion yuan [13][31] - Xpeng's Q3 revenue reached 20.38 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 101.8% [13][31] - Li Auto experienced a decline in deliveries by 39.0% year-on-year, with a revenue drop of 36.2% to 27.365 billion yuan, resulting in a net loss of 624 million yuan [13][31] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a potential decline in passenger vehicle year-on-year growth by the end of 2025 due to high base effects and the temporary withdrawal of certain subsidies [15] - It suggests that the high-end passenger vehicle market may perform better in 2026, particularly for domestic brands with offerings above 300,000 yuan [15] - Recommendations include companies like JAC Motors, Geely, Xpeng, Great Wall Motors, SAIC Motor, Li Auto, Seres, and BYD for passenger vehicles [15] Key Recommendations - For automotive parts, the report recommends companies benefiting from the penetration of high-level intelligence into lower-priced models, including Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Kobot [15][6] - In the commercial vehicle sector, it suggests companies like Weichai Power, Foton Motor, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group as beneficiaries of the recovering demand for heavy trucks [15][6]

2025 年 12 月 01 日 策略周报 | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 赵阳 S0350525100003 | | | | zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 郭可凡 S0350124070038 | | | | guokf@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] ETF 资金净流出，宏观流动性边际收敛 ——流动性周报 12 月第 1 期 最近一年走势 投资要点: 相关报告 《流动性周报 11 月第 1 期：基金发行端回暖，杠 杆资金有所放缓*赵阳》——2025-11-24 《存款搬家如何演绎——牛市资金面专题研究 (一)*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》——2025-08-10 《全球 ETF 格局演变与中国市场未来机遇—— ETF 系列报告（一）*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-30 2025-05-29 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 1. 本周（2025/11/24-2025/11/28）宏观资金面边际收敛，央行通过公开 市场操作开展 7 天逆回购净 ...

2025 年 12 月 01 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 203 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 理财整改倒计时，对债市影响几何？--固定收益点评 装载机+挖掘机比翼双飞，电动化+全球化勇立潮头--柳工/工程机械(000528/216406) 公司深度研究 近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题--策略周报 智元正式推出灵心平台，优必选连续中标人形机器人数据采集相关项目大单--行业周报 储能需求有望持续超预期，继续看好锂电材料价格修复--行业周报 专精风电齿轮箱，融资扩产续华章--德力佳/风电设备(603092/216306) 公司深度研究 如何看待科创公司债的估值回调？--债券研究周报 辛醇、锦纶切片价格上涨，关注反内卷和铬盐--行业周报 年底债市机构行为格局之变--债券研究周报 六氟磷酸锂价格持续上涨，北京规划建设太空数据中心--行业周报 铝行业周报：库存去化，铝价高位震荡--行业 PPT 报告 电厂日耗继续上行，12 月煤价仍有上涨动能--行业周报 证券研究报告 1、最新报告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to see upward price momentum in December due to seasonal demand increases and low inventory levels [6][72] - The production recovery from previously halted coal mines is contributing to a slight increase in supply, while demand from power plants continues to rise [3][13] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with strong cash flows and high dividend yields [6] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of November 28, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 816 RMB/ton, a decrease of 18 RMB/ton week-on-week [13][14] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increased by 1.37 percentage points, reaching 91.3% [19] - Power plant coal inventories are at 136.4 million tons, down 23.3 million tons year-on-year [13][31] 2. Coking Coal - The production capacity utilization for coking coal increased by 0.33 percentage points to 84.6% [38] - The average price of main coking coal at ports is 1670 RMB/ton, down 110 RMB/ton week-on-week [39] - Coking coal inventories at production enterprises increased by 15.71 thousand tons [46] 3. Coke - Coking enterprises are experiencing a recovery in profits, leading to increased production activity [51] - The average profit per ton of coke has risen to approximately 46 RMB/ton, an increase of 27 RMB/ton week-on-week [55] - The price of coke at the port remains stable at 1680 RMB/ton [52] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite coal remains stable, with the market supply still tight due to strict environmental regulations [67] - The price of small block anthracite is 930 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [67] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, all rated as "Buy" [8] - The report emphasizes the strong cash flow and high dividend yields of leading coal companies, making them attractive investment options [6]