Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers in the latest week [7]. - From January 27 to February 2, the seller sentiment index continued to decline, and the buyer sentiment index dropped from 0 to negative. Institutions are generally cautious about the future outlook [7]. Group 2: Seller Perspective - Based on the analysis of 33 seller institutions, the bond market sentiment continued to decline, and some sellers turned neutral. Currently, sellers hold a neutral - bullish attitude, with sentiment lower than the previous period (January 20 - January 26) [8]. - 6% of institutions are bullish, believing that model signals are all positive, the interest - rate downward trend is established, and the supply - demand pattern favors the bond market [8]. - 91% of institutions are neutral, stating that the weakening fundamentals and stable funding support sentiment repair, but interest - rate decline is limited by the 1.8% psychological threshold and the central bank's preferred range. The market is expected to maintain low - volatility oscillations [8]. - 3% of institutions are bearish, arguing that the market is sensitive to loose - monetary expectations, which may become a selling opportunity. The 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to stay in the 2% - 3% range, with a central value of about 2.5% [8]. Group 3: Buyer Perspective - After sorting out the views of 21 fixed - income buyer institutions, it's found that the number of bearish views increased, and neutral views remain the mainstream, with an overall neutral stance [9]. - 10% of institutions are bullish, suggesting short - term waiting at the 1.8% psychological threshold and following up after the breakthrough [9]. - 52% of institutions are neutral, believing that the bond market is mixed, maintaining a range - bound pattern, with limited short - term yield space [9]. - 38% of institutions are bearish, stating that rising funding rates and supply pressure suppress the market, and with current interest rates close to the lower limit, there is a lack of new positive factors, and short - term risks outweigh opportunities [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment Index - From January 27 to February 2, the unweighted seller sentiment index was 0.03, a decrease of 0.04 compared to the previous period. Some institutional views turned neutral [14]. - From January 27 to February 2, the unweighted buyer sentiment index was - 0.29, a decrease of 0.29 from the previous period, dropping from 0 to negative [15].

2026 年 02 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 | | | | chenmz@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 邱怡瑄 S0350124070030 | chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 邱怡瑄 S0350124070030 qiuyx@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 订单额超预期，ASML 进入新一轮增长周期 ——阿斯麦（ASML）2025Q4 业绩点评报告 最近一年走势 事件: 2026 年 1 月 28 日，ASML 发布 2025 年 Q4 财报：2025Q4，公司实现 收入 97.18 亿欧元（QoQ+29.3%，YoY+4.9%）；净利润 28.40 亿欧元 （ QoQ+33.7% ， YoY+5.4% ） ； 季 度 订 单 价 值 131.58 亿 欧 元 （QoQ+143.7%，YoY+85.6%）。 投资要点: 盈利预测和投资评级 预计 ASML 2026-2028 年营收分别为 | 相对 ...

Group 1 - The macro liquidity environment is balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a net reverse repo of 580.5 billion and a net MLF injection of 700 billion [4][10][11] - The stock market shows a structural divergence in funding supply, with an increase in equity fund issuance and a recovery in leveraged funds, while ETFs experience significant net outflows [5][12][13] - The stock market's funding demand pressure has eased, with equity financing rising to 11.244 billion, and the scale of locked-up shares being released decreasing to 49.09 billion [20][21] Group 2 - The stock market funding supply shows a significant net outflow for the CSI 300 index for three consecutive weeks, with a total net outflow of 2,446.02 billion this week [5][12][19] - The net inflow of financing is concentrated in the non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals sectors, while the electronics and defense industries see net outflows [5][18] - The overall scale of equity financing has increased, driven by a significant rise in IPOs, with 4 IPOs raising 5.549 billion this week [21][27] Group 3 - The stock market's funding demand has shown signs of relief, with a decrease in the scale of locked-up shares released and a reduction in significant shareholder sell-offs [20][21] - The total amount of locked-up shares released this week is 49.09 billion, down from 59.55 billion the previous week, with the highest release values in the power equipment and machinery sectors [21][24] - The net reduction in significant shareholder holdings is 12.278 billion, a decrease from 14.508 billion the previous week, with the electronics and communications sectors seeing the most significant reductions [21][28]

2026 年 02 月 02 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 行业相对表现 | | 2026/02/02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 社会服务 | 4.2% | 4.9% | 17.5% | | 沪深 300 | -0.5% | -0.7% | 20.7% | 投资要点: 1 服务业政策加码：2026.1.25，国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新 增长点工作方案》，围绕交通、旅居、入境消费等文旅出行核心赛道， 从供给扩容、场景创新与金融支持等多维度系统推进服务消费提质扩容。 政策明确推进铁路旅游化改造、银发旅游专列建设，支持邮轮、游艇、 夜游船等产品升级并培育旅居目的地；同步加码入境消费便利化，推进 签证在线办理全球覆盖、优化涉外支付与离境退税服务；在汽车后市场 与出行方式上，探索改装分级管理、经典车认定体系建设，并强化房车 露营基地、自驾游与租赁网络配套；同时推动家政服务职业化、规模化 与智慧化升级，拓展居家养老服务并培育行业龙头；在演出、体育等体 验式消费领域，实施包容审慎监管并强化财政金融支持，明确支持服务 消费企 ...

2026 年 02 月 02 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 特斯拉举行 2025Q4 业绩财报会，比亚迪天神之眼 5.0 辅助驾驶发布 ——汽车行业周报 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2026/01/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车 | | -0.1% | 1.2% | 23.5% | | 沪深 | 300 | 1.2% | -0.1% | 23.3% | 相关报告 《超豪市场自主替代空间大，尊界放量有望助力江 淮盈利改善——汽车行业深度报告（推荐）*乘用 车*戴畅》——2026-01-30 《汽车行业周报：吉利集团 2030 年目标销量突破 650 万辆，特斯拉 Cybercab 无人驾驶出租车将于 4 月投产（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》——2026-01-25 《汽车行业周报：中欧电车价格承诺机制落地，多 地开放 2026 年汽车补贴，长城发布"归元"平台 （推荐）*汽车*戴畅，徐鸣爽 ...

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The ultra-luxury market has significant potential for domestic alternatives, with the Jianghuai brand expected to improve profitability through increased sales of the Zun Jie model [4][5] - The ultra-luxury car market has historically sold between 150,000 to 200,000 units annually, with domestic brands currently holding a low market share, indicating substantial future growth opportunities [4] - Jianghuai's Q3 2025 financial report shows a notable improvement in revenue and gross margin, with expectations for continued growth as the Zun Jie model begins larger-scale deliveries [5][6] Group 2: Paper Industry - The price of white cardboard is set to increase by 200 RMB per ton starting March 1, 2026, following a previous increase in January, which is expected to positively impact profitability for leading companies in the sector [7][8] - The average price of white cardboard rose by 291.05 RMB per ton from August 2025 to December 2025, indicating a recovery trend in the industry [8] - The company reported a revenue of 14.45 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.46%, and a production increase of 12.39% in the same period [9] Group 3: Organic Silicon Industry - The demand for organic silicon is steadily increasing, particularly in sectors such as electronics, construction, and renewable energy, with projected consumption growth rates of 8.0% to 8.8% from 2025 to 2027 [11][12] - The expansion of organic silicon supply is slowing, with new capacity expected to be limited in the coming years, which may help stabilize prices [12] - The "anti-involution" consensus among industry leaders is expected to positively influence pricing and market conditions, aiding in the recovery of the industry's profitability [12][13] Group 4: Food Processing Industry - The company anticipates a core operating profit growth of 44.8% to 51.2% for 2025, with projected revenues of approximately 7.75 to 7.85 billion RMB, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [17][18] - The expansion of store numbers and market penetration in rural areas is driving revenue growth, with a total of 11,566 stores expected by the end of 2025 [19] - The company is focusing on building a membership system and enhancing online sales channels, which are expected to strengthen its market position [19] Group 5: Military Electronics Industry - The company forecasts a net profit of 338 to 388 million RMB for 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses, driven by demand for AI and cloud computing technologies [20][22] - The company is actively collaborating with major tech firms and expanding its product offerings in AI and data center infrastructure, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [23][24] - The company plans to invest in expanding its production capacity in key technology areas, including AI and defense applications, to capitalize on market opportunities [24][25] Group 6: AI and Software Development Industry - The company expects a net profit of 785 to 950 million RMB for 2025, with a growth rate of 40% to 70%, driven by advancements in AI models and increased sales [26][27] - The launch of the new AI model "Xunfei Starfire X1.5" is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the AI market, with significant project wins reported [28][30] - The company is expanding its B2B AI applications and has achieved notable sales success in consumer AI hardware, indicating strong market demand [30][31] Group 7: Biopharmaceutical Industry - The ADC drug market is experiencing rapid growth, with global sales expected to reach 66.2 billion USD by 2030, driven by increased R&D efforts from domestic companies [32][34] - Domestic companies are leveraging existing technologies to optimize ADC drugs, with several products showing potential to become best-in-class [33][34] - The increasing number of ADC drug pipelines in China is expected to lead to a significant number of new drug approvals in the coming years, enhancing market competitiveness [35] Group 8: Automotive Components Industry - The domestic electric vehicle market is projected to grow by 28.2% in 2025, with the company focusing on high-voltage power supply solutions for electric vehicles [37][38] - The company has established partnerships with major automotive manufacturers and is expanding its international client base, which is expected to enhance profitability [38][39] - The company anticipates a net profit of 210 to 250 million RMB for 2025, driven by increased demand in the electric vehicle sector and successful capacity expansion [39][41]

2026 年 02 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 曹泽运 S0350525110001 证券分析师： 万鹏辉 S0350524050003 caozy@ghzq.com.cn wanph@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 与齐鲁制药达成合作，持续验证 AI 制药能力 ——英矽智能（03696）点评报告 最近一年走势 事件: 2026 年 1 月 27 日，英矽智能发布公告：公司与齐鲁制药签署战略合作 协议，双方将围绕心血管与代谢类疾病领域，利用英矽智能的 Pharma.AI 平台进行小分子抑制剂的研发。协议总金额超过 9.31 亿港元，包含开发 和销售里程碑付款，以及单位数的后续净销售额分成。 投资要点: | 相对恒生指数表现 | | 2026/01/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M 12M | | | 英矽智能 | 109.8% | - | - | | 恒生指数 | 5.9% | - | - | | 市场数据 | | 2026/01/30 | | | 当前价格（元） | | 62.90 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant growth in its quantum computing business, which is expected to drive overall performance improvement. For 2025, the company anticipates a revenue of 310 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [6][10] - The quantum computing industry is entering its first rapid growth phase, with increasing participation from various players. The global quantum computing market is projected to grow from 5.037 billion USD in 2024 to 111.75 billion USD by 2027, and further to 219.978 billion USD by 2030 [8][10] - The company is positioned as a core supplier in the quantum communication sector, with a significant market share of approximately 90% in China. The domestic market for quantum communication is expected to reach 8 billion yuan in 2025, driven by demand from key industries such as government, finance, and energy [10] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance over the past year shows a 139.4% increase, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which only increased by 23.3% [4] - As of January 30, 2026, the company's current stock price is 624.20 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 64.21 billion yuan [4] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025E at 311 million yuan, 2026E at 471 million yuan, and 2027E at 702 million yuan, with corresponding net profits of 5 million yuan, 29 million yuan, and 46 million yuan respectively [11][12] - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit are 23% and 116% for 2025, and 52% and 473% for 2026 [11] Business Developments - The company has successfully passed acceptance tests for its quantum computing systems, including a 200-qubit superconducting quantum computer, which is now part of China's first publicly launched "supercomputing + quantum computing" fusion center [9][10] - The company has also achieved a breakthrough in international markets with the successful export of a 25-qubit superconducting system [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][14] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 338 million and 388 million yuan in 2025, marking a turnaround from losses and representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 356 million to 406 million yuan, which is about 4.67 to 5.36 times the net profit of 2023 [6][7] - The anticipated net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be between 115 million and 165 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 272% to 434% [6][7] - The growth is primarily driven by the integration of artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and big data technologies, which are fueling a surge in demand for key equipment such as switches, AI servers, and core routers [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.573 billion, 3.788 billion, and 5.120 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 136%, 47%, and 35% [12][13] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 370 million, 672 million, and 876 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 2182%, 82%, and 30% [12][13] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.80, 1.46, and 1.90 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12][13] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively collaborating with major manufacturers and internet application clients in the AI and data center sectors, including partnerships with Inspur, Huawei, and Tencent [8] - In the electric vehicle sector, the company has expanded its client base to include major players such as SAIC-GM-Wuling and BYD, as well as new clients like FAW Bestune and Geely [9] - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity in technology innovation fields, particularly in AI, defense, commercial aerospace, and communications [10] Investment and Growth Initiatives - The company plans to invest 4.5 billion yuan in a high-speed line module project, which is expected to be a core component of AI computing servers, with a construction period of six months [11] - An investment of 470 million yuan is allocated for the construction of a defense connector base, aimed at enhancing R&D and manufacturing capabilities for various applications [11] - A project to upgrade communication connector R&D capabilities is set to receive an investment of 80 million yuan, with a two-year construction period [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the organic silicon industry [1][100]. Core Insights - The demand for organic silicon is steadily increasing, driven by applications in electronics, construction, manufacturing, and textiles, with significant growth expected in photovoltaic adhesives and new energy lithium battery adhesives [7][22]. - Supply expansion in the organic silicon sector is slowing down, with the industry entering the tail end of a capacity expansion cycle, leading to limited new capacity in the coming years [7][68]. - The "anti-involution" trend is positively impacting the industry's recovery from the bottom, with recent meetings among industry leaders resulting in price increases for organic silicon intermediates [7][84]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply - Organic silicon demand is projected to grow at rates of 8.0%, 7.0%, and 8.8% from 2025 to 2027 in China [7]. - The supply of organic silicon is expected to see limited new capacity additions, with only 45,000 tons projected from Xinjiang Qiya Group by 2027 [7][68]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of organic silicon intermediates has increased by approximately 27% from November 2025 to January 2026, reflecting strong industry support for price stabilization [7][84]. - The industry is experiencing a gradual decrease in inventory levels and maintaining a reasonable operating rate of 70%-75% [88]. Key Companies and Investment Focus - The report highlights key companies in the organic silicon sector, including Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Xin'an Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Material, Sanyou Chemical, and Hengxing Technology, as potential investment targets [7][100].