2025 年 11 月 2 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李振方 S0350524080003 | | | lizf@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 九目化学北交所 IPO 申请获正式受理，2025 年 前三季度归母净利润同比增长 ——万润股份（002643）2025 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | | 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 万润股份 | | 1.9% | 10.7% | 32.5% | | 沪深 300 | | -0.0% | 13.9% | 19.3% | | 市场数据 | 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | ...

2025 年 11 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 业务规模稳健增长，关注类贷款率下降 ——成都银行（601838）2025 年三季报点评 事件: 10 月 29 日，成都银行发布 2025 年第三季度报告。 投资要点: | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | | 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 成都银行 | | -2.6% | -9.0% | 14.4% | | 市场数据 | 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 16.81 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 15.32-20.96 | | 总市值（百万） | 71,248.10 | | 流通市值（百万） | 71,124.09 | | 总股本（万股） | 423,843.54 | ...

2025 年 11 月 02 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 《"十五五"规划建议》落地后市场如何演绎？ ——策略周报 《策略研究框架的时代底色：极致的轮动与绝对的 低波*赵阳》——2025-10-25 《AH 溢价跌破位，港股在交易什么？——策略专 题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-10-12 《投资黄金如何增强收益——策略周报*陈艺鑫， 胡国鹏》——2025-09-28 《更进一步——2025 年四季度策略*袁稻雨，胡国 鹏》——2025-09-17 《如何布局"十五五"规划的投资机会*袁稻雨， 胡国鹏》——2025-09-10 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、本次《"十五五"规划建议》有哪些 亮点表述；2、历次五年规划政策周期中的市场演绎规律；3、对未来一 个月投资形成建议。 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 最近一年走势 相关报告 未来一个月有望进入到主题交易、成长内部扩散的窗口期，成长主 题有望继续演绎。一方面，从过去四次五年规划的交易规律来看， 在《建议》 ...

2025 年 11 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈飞宇 S0350525060001 chenfy02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2025Q3 营收环比高增，智能座舱产品放量可期 ——华阳集团（002906）2025 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 华阳集团 | -6.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | | 沪深 300 | -0.0% | 13.9% | 19.3% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/10/31 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 31.66 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 25.71-37.88 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 16,618.94 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 16,612.94 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 52,491.90 ...

2025 年 11 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 [Table_Title] Q3 工业硅销售环比量价齐升， 公司归母净利润环比扭亏 联系人 ： 曾子华 S0350124080006 zengzh@ghzq.com.cn ——合盛硅业（603260）2025 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | | 2025/10/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 合盛硅业 | | -0.7% | -10.8% | -16.6% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.5% | 13.5% | 21.1% | | 市场数据 | 2025/10/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 49.11 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 44.73-63.30 | | 总市值（百万） | 58,058.18 | | 流通市值（百万） | 58,058.18 | | 总股本（万股） | 118,220.69 | | 流通股本（万股） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Meta's Q3 2025 revenue reached $51.242 billion, a year-over-year increase of 26%, while net profit fell to $2.709 billion, down 83% due to a one-time tax impact from the "Big and Beautiful Act" [5][6]. - AI-driven advertising efficiency and user engagement have both improved, with core revenue exceeding expectations [6]. - The company anticipates significant capital expenditures in AI, with a projected CapEx of $70-72 billion for 2025, up from an earlier estimate of $66-72 billion [7]. - The Reality Labs segment, driven by strong sales of AI glasses, saw a 74% year-over-year revenue increase to $470 million, although Q4 performance may face seasonal pressures [8]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - Meta's Q3 2025 revenue was $51.242 billion, a 26% increase year-over-year, while net profit was $2.709 billion, down 83% [5][6]. Revenue and User Growth - Meta's FoA revenue grew 26% to $50.8 billion, with ad impressions up 14% and eCPM up 10% [6]. - The DAP within Meta's ecosystem reached 3.5 billion, an 8% increase, with Instagram monthly active users surpassing 3 billion [6]. Capital Expenditure and AI Development - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities, with over 1 billion monthly active users engaging with AI tools [7]. - A joint venture worth $27 billion with Blue Owl Capital was announced for AI data center construction [7]. Profitability and Future Guidance - Net profit was impacted by a one-time tax, but adjusted net profit was $18.6 billion, a 19% increase year-over-year [8]. - The company projects Q4 2025 total revenue between $56 billion and $59 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16%-22% [9]. Financial Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are $199.8 billion, $229.3 billion, and $258.1 billion, with corresponding net profits of $57.9 billion, $77 billion, and $88.5 billion [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) as of October 31, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The company continues to advance its Morocco project, with a quarter-on-quarter improvement in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 [2][10]. - The company reported a total revenue of 6.438 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.015 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.17% year-on-year [5][7]. - The company has established a global production capacity "golden triangle" in China, Thailand, and Morocco, enhancing its competitive position in international markets [10]. - The company aims to establish eight smart manufacturing bases, three R&D centers, and three user experience centers globally over the next decade as part of its "833plus" strategic plan [10]. - The company has entered the supply chains of major international automotive brands, enhancing its brand value [10]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.318 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.94% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.36% [6][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 343 million yuan, a decrease of 47.03% year-on-year but an increase of 10.29% quarter-on-quarter [6][8]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 23.03%, down 16.49 percentage points year-on-year and down 3.42 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6][8]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 14.81%, down 14.26 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.24 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6][8]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for Q3 2025 was 172 million yuan, a decrease of 79.19% year-on-year but an increase of 1046.67% quarter-on-quarter [6][8]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.897 billion yuan, 10.672 billion yuan, and 12.607 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.432 billion yuan, 1.811 billion yuan, and 2.206 billion yuan [12][13]. - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14, 11, and 9 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company demonstrates resilient performance with a rational deceleration, achieving a revenue of 130.90 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion yuan, also up by 6.25% [3][5] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 39.81 billion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year growth of 0.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.22 billion yuan, up by 0.48% [3][5] - The company’s product mix shows strong resilience in the premium segment, with revenue from Maotai liquor increasing by 9.28% year-on-year, while revenue from series liquor declined by 7.78% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1309.04 billion yuan and a net profit of 646.27 billion yuan, both showing positive growth [3][5] - The Q3 2025 results indicate a revenue of 398.10 billion yuan and a net profit of 192.24 billion yuan, with slight increases compared to the previous year [3][5] Product and Market Analysis - Revenue from Maotai liquor in the first three quarters reached 1105.14 billion yuan, while series liquor generated 178.84 billion yuan [5] - In Q3 2025, domestic revenue was 380.45 billion yuan, up by 1.38%, while international revenue was 10.00 billion yuan, down by 21.81% [5] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin in Q3 2025 improved by 0.23 percentage points to 91.28%, attributed to a higher proportion of Maotai liquor sales [5] - The net profit margin recorded in Q3 was 48.29%, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [5] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1819.25 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits expected to reach 900.41 billion yuan [7][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 71.90 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue reached 374 million yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 247.5%, with a net profit of 106 million yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 12 million yuan in Q3 2024, primarily driven by streaming revenue from "Nezha 2" [6][7] - The company has a robust pipeline of both live-action and animated films, with several titles set to be released, enhancing its content and IP operations [8] - The company is expected to maintain strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of 3.937 billion yuan in 2025, 2.866 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.366 billion yuan in 2027, alongside net profits of 2.419 billion yuan, 1.202 billion yuan, and 1.416 billion yuan respectively [9][12] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 29.65%, an increase of 4.58 percentage points year-over-year, and a net margin of 28.21%, recovering from a negative margin of 11.47% in Q3 2024 [7] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenues of 3.616 billion yuan, up 150.81% year-over-year, and a net profit of 2.336 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 406.78% [7] Content and IP Development - The company has a diverse lineup of upcoming films, including live-action titles such as "The Flower Girl Murder Case" and animated films like "The First Part of the Starry Sky of the Three Kingdoms," which are expected to contribute to future revenues [8] - The company is also expanding its television production capabilities, with the series "Mountains and Rivers Pillow" recently airing and further projects in development [8] Market Performance - As of October 30, 2025, the company's stock price was 16.53 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 48.49 billion yuan [5] - Over the past year, the company's stock has outperformed the market, with a 12-month return of 90.6%, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's return of 19.3% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's coal production and sales have shown an increase in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable rise in self-produced coal sales in Q3 [6][7] - The average selling price of coal has decreased significantly, leading to a decline in profit margins, but the company maintains a strong profitability outlook due to low production costs [8][11] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.046 billion yuan, down 49.74% [6] - The third quarter saw an operating revenue of 5.673 billion yuan, an increase of 9.98% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 391 million yuan, a decrease of 2.18% [6] Coal Production and Sales - The company reported a raw coal production of 26.6414 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 8.73% year-on-year, while the total coal sales were 30.0364 million tons, down 9.28% [7] - Self-produced coal sales reached 9.4743 million tons in Q3, a significant increase of 59.77% quarter-on-quarter [7] Pricing and Cost Analysis - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 509.31 yuan per ton, down 24.72% year-on-year, while the unit cost for self-produced coal was 253.83 yuan per ton, a decrease of 13.30% [7] - The unit gross profit for self-produced coal was 255.48 yuan per ton, down 33.42% year-on-year, indicating a decline in profitability despite lower costs [7] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 24 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.476 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.74 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.59 [11]