2025 年 05 月 26 日 北交所行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 禹露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 本周北证 50 阶段性回调，下周世昌股份/志高机 械上会、交大铁发申购 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 北证 | 50 | 1.10% | 1.84% | 73.36% | | 沪深 | 300 | 2.60% | -2.42% | 5.37% | 相关报告 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 继续领涨，交投 活跃度持续上升，天工股份正式上市（推荐）*中 小盘*罗琨》——2025-05-19 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 实现领涨、交投 活跃度明显提升，下周天工股份上市（推荐）*中 小盘*罗琨》——2025-05-12 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 小幅回调，下周 天工 股份申购 （推荐）* 中 ...

2025 年 05 月 26 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 程一胜 S0350521070001 chengys01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 熊子兴 S0350522100002 xiongzx@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王思言 S0350524010001 [Table_Title] 618 宠物经济火热，国产品牌强势崛起 ——农林牧渔行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/05/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 农林牧渔 | 0.1% | 5.2% | -8.7% | | 沪深 300 | 2.5% | -2.4% | 6.6% | 相关报告 《农林牧渔行业周报：宠物经济火热，长期看好国 产品牌发展（推荐）*农林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴， 王思言》——2025-05-13 《农林牧渔行业周报：一季报业绩亮眼，长期看好 宠物赛道（推荐）*农林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴，王 思言》——2025-04-28 《农林牧渔行业周报：关注贸易冲突背景下粮食安 全（推荐）*农 ...

2025 年 05 月 26 日 公司研究 | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 | | | | liujm@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 秦一方 S0350523120001 | | | | qinyf@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 黄诗汶 S0350124040004 | | | | huangsw01@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 零食量贩龙头，引领万亿元赛道效率变革 ——鸣鸣很忙（02143）招股说明书梳理 最近一年走势 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 鸣鸣很忙：零食量贩行业领军者。2017 年晏周先生于湖南省长沙开 设首家"零食很忙"；2019 年赵定先生于江西省宜春开设首家"赵 一鸣零食"；2023 年 11 月，"零食很忙"完成对赵一鸣的收购事 项完成两大品牌融合。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，公司门店网络包 括 14,394 家门店，覆盖中国 28 个省份和所有线级城市，且其中约 58%的门店位于 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a high-end gold jewelry brand that combines luxury attributes with investment value, targeting high-net-worth individuals. The contribution of customers spending over 1 million yuan annually has increased from 8.5% in 2021 to 15.9% in 2023 [9][35]. - The company's revenue and profit are expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 185.7 billion yuan in 2025, 272.9 billion yuan in 2026, and 366.9 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 118%, 47%, and 34% respectively [19]. - The company benefits from a unique craftsmanship that creates a significant premium on its products, with some items showing a price premium of 38% to 114% compared to competitors [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Is the company a luxury brand? - The company successfully blends luxury and investment attributes, appealing to high-net-worth customers through unique cultural experiences and high-quality craftsmanship [9][22]. 2. How does gold price affect it? - The company benefits from a fixed-price model that allows it to capitalize on rising gold prices, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% in gold prices from 2020 to 2024, while its core products have seen lower price increases, enhancing perceived value [10][43]. 3. Is discounting a problem? - The company faces pricing risks from secondary market discounts, with recovery rates of 70%-80% for its products. However, it maintains brand premium through limited supply and complex craftsmanship [11][66]. 4. What is the store expansion potential? - The company has significant room for growth in both domestic and international markets, with only 37 stores in China compared to an average of 49 for international luxury brands. There are also opportunities in high-end shopping malls and overseas markets like Singapore [12][67]. 5. Who are the competitors? - The competitive landscape includes high-end custom brands and mass-market players, with varying pricing strategies and market shares [13]. 6. What is the craftsmanship premium? - The company's products exhibit a notable craftsmanship premium, with some items achieving a price premium of up to 114% compared to competitors [14]. 7. Are there barriers to craftsmanship? - The company utilizes traditional techniques and complex processes that create significant barriers to entry, making it difficult for competitors to replicate its products [15]. 8. What is the profit margin trend? - The company has improved its operational efficiency, leading to a projected net profit margin of 17% in 2024, driven by reduced customer acquisition costs and enhanced store performance [17]. 9. What is the ceiling for single-store operations? - The average revenue per store is expected to increase significantly, with projections of 4 billion yuan in 2025 and 6 billion yuan by 2027, driven by store expansion and product pricing strategies [18]. 10. How to value the company? - The company is valued based on a premium compared to international luxury brands, with a target market capitalization of 160.8 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting its growth potential and unique market positioning [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in profit margins, with a focus on international expansion performance [3][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.4 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 13%, and an adjusted net profit of 790 million yuan, up 41% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 18%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-over-year [5][6]. Financial Performance - The core online travel platform generated revenue of 3.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 18%, with an operating profit margin of 29.2%, up 6.6 percentage points year-over-year [6]. - Revenue from transportation ticketing reached 2 billion yuan, up 15% year-over-year, benefiting from increased demand and enhanced value-added services [6]. - Accommodation bookings generated 1.2 billion yuan in revenue, a 23% year-over-year increase, with international hotel night volume growing over 50% [6]. - The vacation business faced short-term revenue pressure, generating 590 million yuan, down 11.8% year-over-year, due to safety issues in Southeast Asia [6]. User Metrics - The average monthly paying user count reached 46.5 million, a 9.2% year-over-year increase, with annual paying users totaling 247 million, up 7.8% year-over-year [6]. - Over 87% of registered users reside in non-first-tier cities in China, with 68% of new paying users from these areas, reinforcing the platform's position in the mass market [6]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion, 22.1 billion, and 24.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.7 billion, 3.0 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan [8]. - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 51.4 billion yuan, with a target price of 24 HKD per share [8].

2025 年 05 月 26 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 87 期 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、中科曙光(603019)深度报告：高端计算自主领军， "智算+AI 应用"双 引擎提速--中科曙光/计算机设备(603019/217101) 公司 PPT 报告 分析师：刘熹 S0350523040001 核心逻辑：公司是我国核心信息基础设施领军企业，是中科院顶级孵化平台，迎来人工智能和自主可控双轮驱 动，长期成长趋势明确。 中科院顶级孵化平台，我国核心 IT 基础设施领军企业 公司是我国核心信息基础设施领军企业，主要从事高端计算机、存储、安全、数据中心产品的研发及制造，同 时大力发展数字基础设施建设、智能计算等业务。公司实控人是中科院计算所，公司是中科院顶级技术孵化平 台，在体内投资了海光信息、中科星图、曙光云、中科三清、中科天机、曙光数创等多项优质资产，与参控股 子公司全方位覆盖了从上游芯片、服务器硬件、IO 存储到中游云计算平台、大数据平台、算力服务平台以及 ...

证券研究报告 2025年05月25日 有色金属 铝行业周报：国内政策利好释放，几内亚铝土矿供应扰动 评级：推荐(维持) 陈晨（证券分析师） 王璇（证券分析师） S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -22% -13% -5% 3% 12% 20% 2024/05 2024/08 2024/11 2025/02 2025/05 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：中美双边关税大幅下降，库存维持强势表现（推荐）*有色金 属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-05-18 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓和，政策定调积极（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈 晨》——2025-04-28 《铝行业周报：去库表现强势，关注需求及出口走向（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-04-21 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.4% | | 沪深300 | 2.5% | -2.4% | 6.6 ...

2025 年 05 月 25 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 王鹏 S0350125040009 | | | | wangp05@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 中国航天密集发射，SpaceX 星舰第九次飞行试 验在即 ——新材料产业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | | 沪深 300 | 2.5% | -2.4% | 6.6% | 相关报告 《新材料产业周报：中航工业"十四五"规划攻坚 全面启动（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏》— —2025-04-20 《 ...

2025 年 05 月 25 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 证券分析师： 杨丽蓉 S0350524090008 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn yanglr@ghzq.com.cn | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | | 沪深 300 | 2.5% | -2.4% | 6.6% | 相关报告 《基础化工行业动态研究：孟山都存破产可能，国 内草甘膦和草铵膦企业有望受益（推荐）*基础化 工*李永磊，董伯骏，杨丽蓉》——2025-05-22 《基础化工行业周报：金属铬、聚合 MDI、烯草酮 价格上涨，重视铬盐大周期（推荐）*基础化工*李 永磊，董伯骏，杨丽蓉》——2025-04-28 《基础化工行业周报：六氟丙烯、尿素涨价，重视 芭田股份磷矿产能扩张（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊， 董 ...

| | 2025 | 年 月 日 05 | 25 | 行业研究 | 评级：推荐(维持) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究所： | | | | [Table_Title] | | | 证券分析师： | | 陈晨 S0350522110007 | | 煤价企稳、日耗提升，关注板块旺季回暖机会 | | | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | 联系人 ： | | 张益 S0350124100016 | | ——煤炭开采行业周报 | | | | | zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn | | | | 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/05/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | 1.5% | 2.5% | -21.0% | | 沪深 300 | 2.5% | -2.4% | 6.6% | 相关报告 证券研究报告 率环比提升 0.04pct 至 76.06%。需求端，正如前文所述，铁水产量下滑，下 游观望情绪较浓、钢厂采购控 ...