Core Insights - The report addresses three main issues: recent bond market review, changes in institutional behavior, and future outlook for the bond market [2] - The bond market is undergoing a transformation characterized by a dual behavior of institutions [3] Group 1: Institutional Behavior Changes - The supply side pressure is evident with local government bond issuance expected to reach 1.94 trillion yuan in Q1 2026, with high issuance volumes in January and March [5] - The demand side shows a deterioration in traditional allocation demand, with major banks and insurance companies showing decreased willingness to absorb long-term bonds [5] - The trading side indicates a shift where rural commercial banks are retreating while brokerages are becoming more active, particularly in trading 10Y and 30Y bonds [16][17] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The issuance plan for government bonds in Q1 2026 is heavily concentrated in February and March, with various maturities being offered [6] - The report highlights that large banks are focusing on realizing profits from older bonds, while insurance institutions are primarily buying local bonds instead of national bonds [7] - The trading volume remains low, and the volatility is expected to decrease further as banks increase their trading in 10Y bonds [23] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that the bond market may experience further adjustments, with brokerages likely to increase their trading of long-term bonds [13] - There is a notable pressure for profit-taking among joint-stock banks, particularly in 10Y national bonds, which may influence future trading strategies [14] - The report anticipates that the yield spread between 30Y and 10Y bonds may widen, while the spread between 10Y national bonds and national development bonds may narrow [23]

2026 年 01 月 26 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 袁野 S0350525030001 yuany03@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 日美错位下的信用重构：告别增长定价 最近一年走势 相关报告 《信用重启与双峰共振——2026 年海外年度策略* 袁野，赵阳》——2026-01-12 《全球流动性"祛魅"，中国资产"重估"*赵阳， 袁野》——2025-12-20 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 ——2025-11-16 《AH 溢价跌破位，港股在交易什么？——策略专 题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-10-12 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、研判美联储主席博弈逻辑与胜率切 换 ；2、剖析日本汇债双杀成因及展望 ；3、信用溢价逻辑下的定价逻 辑切换。 核心结论: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 美联储主席提名博弈进入"买方实用主义"新阶段，里德尔成为平衡 增长与中性利率的关键锚点。截至 2026 年 1 月 2 ...

证券研究报告 2026年01月26日 电力设备 2026年电力设备年度展望：数据中心强化电力基建 需求，出海仍是企业长期增长驱动力 评级：推荐(维持) 李航(证券分析师) 王刚(证券分析师) S0350521120006 S0350524020001 lih11@ghzq.com.cn wangg06@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -17% 0% 17% 34% 51% 68% 2025/01/… 2025/04/… 2025/07/… 2025/10/… 2026/01/… 电力设备 沪深300 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 3 核心提要 《新能源行业周报：马斯克推动太空算力布局，美国本土光伏产能建设加速 （推荐）*电力设备*李航，邱迪，王刚，李昂》——2026-01-24 《电力设备行业周报：国网"十五五"投资预计高增，AIDC驱动北美电力紧 缺持续（推荐）*电力设备*李航，邱迪，王刚，李昂》——2026-01-18 《电力设备行业周报：太空光伏催化不断落地，国内AIDC建设有望加速（推 荐）*电力设备*李航，邱迪，王刚，李昂》——2026-01-11 沪深300表现 | 表 ...

2026 年 01 月 26 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 傅麒丞 S0350524080001 fuqc@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 营收业绩高增，看好高端产品出货量持续提升 ——思特威（688213）2025 年业绩预告点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 思特威 | 13.2% | -3.7% | 34.3% | | 沪深 300 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | | 市场数据 | | | 2026/01/23 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 102.91 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 74.10-127.81 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 41,401.39 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 33,292.36 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 40,230.68 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 32,350.95 | | 日均成交额（百万） | | | ...

Group 1: Company Insights - Huace Testing expects a net profit of 1.013-1.021 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10%-11% [4] - The company anticipates a Q4 net profit of 201-209 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 15%-20% year-on-year [5] - The company is focusing on strategic mergers and international expansion, which will gradually release growth momentum [5] Group 2: Military Industry Developments - Major military groups in China have held annual meetings to set goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan and outline key tasks for 2026 [7] - China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation emphasizes breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology and the development of commercial aerospace [8] - China Commercial Aircraft Corporation is advancing the C919 aircraft's certification and commercial operations, with growing interest from Southeast Asian countries [9] Group 3: Cross-Border E-commerce Performance - The global cross-border e-commerce market is projected to reach 551.23 billion USD by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.44% from 2025 to 2034 [13] - Jihua Co. expects a net profit of 272-291 million yuan for 2025, a significant increase of 50%-60% year-on-year [13] - Huakai Yibai anticipates a net profit of 132-162 million yuan for 2025, with improved inventory management leading to a recovery in gross margin [13] Group 4: Coal Industry Trends - In Q4 2025, coal sector holdings in actively managed funds increased to 0.36%, indicating a low level of crowding and significant value [17] - The coal price is expected to be supported by tight supply and demand conditions, with a potential upward trend in the price center [19] - Major coal companies are initiating buybacks and asset injection plans, reflecting confidence in the sector's growth and stability [20] Group 5: Banking Sector Performance - Industrial Bank expects a revenue growth of 0.24% and a net profit growth of 0.34% for 2025, with asset quality remaining stable [22] - The bank's asset scale is projected to exceed 11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.57% [23] - The non-performing loan ratio is stable at 1.08%, with significant reductions in new non-performing loans in key sectors [23] Group 6: Renewable Energy and Technology - Mingyang Smart Energy plans to acquire Dehua Chip, a leader in satellite energy systems, to enhance its capabilities in space photovoltaic technology [25] - The space photovoltaic market is expected to grow significantly, with Mingyang's revenue projected to reach 40.879 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 51% year-on-year increase [27] - The company aims to leverage its existing technologies to create synergies with Dehua Chip, enhancing its competitive position in the market [27] Group 7: Robotics Industry Developments - Tesla plans to start selling its humanoid robot Optimus by the end of next year, with ongoing testing to ensure reliability and safety [33] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see significant growth, with over 140 companies and more than 330 products launched in 2025 [40] - Microsoft has launched its first robot-specific AI model, Rho-alpha, which enhances the adaptability and reliability of robots [41]

2026 年 01 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 唐锦珂 S0350125070014 tangjk@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 预计 2025 年营收同比增长约 25%，盈利能力稳 步上升 ——飞荣达（300602）2025 年度业绩预告点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 表现 300 | | 2026/01/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 飞荣达 | | 10.0% | 13.8% | 75.8% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 34.75 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 15.59-38.20 | | 总市值（百万） | 20,219.75 | | 流通市值（百万） | 13,740.28 | | 总股本（万股） | ...

研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2025Q4 单季度营收增速达到 16%，灵活调整金 2026 年 01 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 融资产结构 ——南京银行（601009）2025 年业绩快报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | 2026/01/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 南京银行 | | -8.9% | -7.6% | 2.2% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.8% | 2.1% | 23.6% | | 市场数据 | 2026/01/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 10.35 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 9.91-12.20 | | 总市值（百万） | 127,962.92 | | 流通市值（百万） | 127,962.92 | | 总股本（万股 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 债券研究周报 [Table_Title] 30 年国债的"逼空"行情 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 相关报告 《债券研究周报：节后债市或延续震荡*颜子琦， 洪子彦》——2026-01-04 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、近期债券市场行情复盘；2、近期机 构行为变化；3、后续债市行情展望。 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 洪子彦 S0350525100001 hongzy@ghzq.com.cn 《债市锐评第 3 期：利率见顶了吗？*颜子琦，洪 子彦》——2026-01-21 《债券研究周报：近期债市的三点核心变化*颜子 琦，洪子彦》——2026-01-19 《债券研究周报：10 年国债低波化*颜子琦，洪子 彦》——2026-01-12 《—债市锐评第 1 期：交易盘借贷做空地方债了 吗？*颜子琦，洪子彦》——2026-01-08 本周（1 月 19 日至 23 日），债券市场表现较强， 其中 30 年国债 较为亮眼，活跃券 2500006 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 固定收益点评 研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 杨佩霖 S0350525100004 yangpl@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 信用债被一致性看好，还有哪些机会待挖掘？ ——债市锐评第 5 期 最近一年走势 相关报告 《固定收益点评：当前行情，信用债为何这么稳？ *颜子琦，杨佩霖》——2026-01-06 《震荡如潮，信用作舟——2026 年信用债投资策 略*颜子琦，谭升，杨佩霖》——2025-12-13 《债券研究周报：如何看待科创公司债的估值回 调？*颜子琦，杨佩霖》——2025-11-29 《债券研究周报：信用债 ETF 在增持哪些债券？* 颜子琦，杨佩霖》——2025-11-16 《固定收益专题研究：摊余债基迎来开放潮，哪些 信用将受益？*颜子琦，杨佩霖》——2025-11-08 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、摊余债基开放对长普信的配置需求； 2、超跌科创债 ETF 成份券的估值修复机会；3、对中长端二永债行情延 续性的分析。 事件点评： 开年以来，信用债整体表现亮 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李振方 S0350524080003 lizf@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 2026 年 1 月 22 日，国海化工景气指数为 92.92，较 2026 年 1 月 15 日上升 0.68。 投资建议： 日本首相高市早苗近期在国会发表涉台错误言论，暗示可能武力介入台 海局势，引发日本国内多方批评及中国政府严正交涉。我们认为，中日 关系紧张使得行业有望加快对日本半导体材料的替代，由于日本在半导 体材料方面市占率较高，我国国产率均较低，国产替代有望加速。涉及 标的： 1)光刻胶：鼎龙股份、阳谷华泰、彤程新材、晶瑞电材、久日新材、万润 股份、雅克科技、容大感光、南大光电等； 2)湿电子化学品：江化微、格林达、晶瑞电材、飞凯材料、多氟多、兴发 集团等； 3)电子气体：昊华科技、巨化股份、雅克科技、硅烷科技、杭氧股份、凯 美特气、和远气体、金宏气 ...