Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the European offshore wind catalysis continues to strengthen, and the supply-demand pattern of lithium batteries is improving [1] - The overall performance of the power equipment sector shows positive changes and potential catalysts, maintaining an overall "Recommended" rating for the sector [7] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The power equipment sector has shown a performance of -5.4% over the last month, 10.2% over the last three months, and 33.1% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Key Events and Insights - In the photovoltaic sector, there is a continued decline in prices for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules, with a significant reduction in domestic polysilicon production by 15.9% month-on-month in November [4] - In the wind power sector, domestic offshore wind turbine bidding has reached 10.3GW, a 9% increase from the previous year, with significant developments in emerging markets [5] - The energy storage sector is seeing growth, with Trina Solar's energy storage shipments expected to exceed 5GWh in Q4, and a focus on overseas markets [5] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing high prosperity, with production expected to remain at a historical high of around 220GWh in December [5] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the silicon material sector such as GCL-Poly and Tongwei, as well as battery technology firms like LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar [4] - For wind power, companies like Dongfang Cable and Goldwind Technology are recommended due to their involvement in significant projects [5] - In the energy storage space, leading integrators and cell manufacturers such as Sungrow Power and CATL are highlighted as key players [5] - The lithium battery sector is advised to focus on leading companies like CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy, as the industry is moving towards a more rational growth phase [5]

研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘畅 S0350524090005 liuc06@ghzq.com.cn 2025 年 12 月 07 日 固定收益点评 [Table_Title] 定制债基知多少 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：债基持有人结构分析。 相关报告 《破局而立，波段致胜——2026 年利率债投资策 略*颜子琦，刘畅，洪子彦》——2025-12-03 《固定收益点评：理财整改倒计时，对债市影响几 何？*颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-11-29 《固定收益点评：年末"日历效应"，这次有何不 同？*颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-11-22 《固定收益点评：市场风格切换，固收+如何应对？ *颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-11-05 《固定收益点评：股债恒定 ETF 将至，债市迎来 新变量？*颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-10-29 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 债基以机构投资者为主。截至 2025 年 6 月末，债基的机构持仓比例 达 82.8%，若该比例保持不变，则截至 9 月末，机构投资者持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to an increase in aluminum prices [6][11] - Domestic aluminum supply is slightly increasing due to new projects, while demand is expected to weaken as the year-end approaches [7][11] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of December 5, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2900.5 per ton, up $35.5 from the previous week, and up $262.0 year-on-year [24] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥22,345.0 per ton, an increase of ¥735.0 week-on-week and ¥1,765.0 year-on-year [24] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥22,150.0 per ton, up ¥720.0 week-on-week and ¥1,740.0 year-on-year [24] 2. Production - In November 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.637 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons month-on-month and 66,000 tons year-on-year [56] - The production of alumina in November 2025 was 7.439 million tons, down 346,000 tons month-on-month but up 152,000 tons year-on-year [56] 3. Inventory - As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 596,000 tons, unchanged week-on-week [7] - The inventory of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants reached 3.365 million tons, with a weekly increase of 19,000 tons [34] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price ¥30.67, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.54, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price ¥14.07, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.00, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price ¥27.20, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.13, with a "Buy" rating [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price ¥11.40, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥0.84, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price ¥28.31, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.88, with a "Buy" rating [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has upward momentum in December, driven by seasonal demand increases and supply constraints [4][7] - The coal mining industry is characterized by high asset quality and strong cash flow among leading companies, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for coal prices [7] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of December 5, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 785 RMB/ton, a decrease of 31 RMB/ton week-on-week [14] - Production in the Sanxi region has seen a slight decrease in capacity utilization, down 0.61 percentage points [14][21] - Coastal and inland power plants have increased daily coal consumption by 7.3 and 35.3 thousand tons respectively [14][23] - The inventory of power plants in 25 provinces is 136.12 million tons, down 115 thousand tons year-on-year [14][34] 2. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate for coking coal mines has decreased by 0.17 percentage points to 84.5% [5][40] - The average crossing volume at Ganqimaodu port has increased, indicating stable import levels [5][44] - The price of main coking coal at ports is 1,630 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week [5][41] 3. Coke - The production rate of independent coking plants has increased slightly to 72.66% [53][59] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased to approximately 30 RMB/ton, down 16 RMB/ton week-on-week [57] - The price of coke at Rizhao port is 1,630 RMB/ton, a decrease of 50 RMB/ton week-on-week [54] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite remains stable, with the small block price at 930 RMB/ton [69] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, all rated as "Buy" [9]

2025 年 12 月 06 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 如果春季躁动提前，哪些方向值得关注？ 最近一年走势 相关报告 《流动性周报 12 月第 1 期：ETF 资金净流出，宏 观流动性边际收敛*赵阳》——2025-12-01 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 《流动性周报 11 月第 1 期：基金发行端回暖，杠 杆资金有所放缓*赵阳》——2025-11-24 阳》——2025-11-23 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 本篇报告主要讨论：1、每年 2 月是常规春季躁动区间，牛市年份是否会 提前？2、从市场环境上看，本轮的跨年春季行情有没有可能提前？3、 如果春季躁动提前，如何布局？ 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 1、从历史的跨年行情上看，整体胜率最高的是 2 月份，即"春季躁 动"行情的常规时间区间。但如果去看过去几轮牛市中继的年份， 我们发现"春季躁动"行情往往会提前。 ...

2025 年 12 月 05 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 207 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 一级市场项目进展顺利，产业园区板块承压--资产配置报告 FY2026H1 营收稳健增长，看好旺季销售表现--波司登/服装家纺(03998/213502) 点评报告（港股美股） 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、一级市场项目进展顺利，产业园区板块承压--资产配置报告 分析师：林加力 S0350524100005 分析师：许潇琦 S0350525080004 联系人：刘子路 S0350125080017 投资要点： 一级市场六单项目状态更新：截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，年内公募 REITs 市场已成功发行 19 单产品，较去年 同期（截至 2024 年 11 月 30 日）减少 5 单，其中 11 月新成立 1 单。根据交易所最新披露信息，近三个月处 于已申报状态的 REITs 产品有 2 单、已受理状态 2 单、交易所已反馈意见 5 单、已通过审核 4 单。本月 ...

2025 年 12 月 04 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 许潇琦 S0350525080004 xuxq01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 刘子路 S0350125080017 liuzl02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 一级市场项目进展顺利，产业园区板块承压 ——公募 REITs 月报 投资要点： 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 一级市场六单项目状态更新：截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，年内公募 REITs 市场已成功发行 19 单产品，较去年同期（截至 2024 年 11 月 30 日）减少 5 单，其中 11 月新成立 1 单。根据交易所最新披露信 息，近三个月处于已申报状态的 REITs 产品有 2 单、已受理状态 2 单、交易所已反馈意见 5 单、已通过审核 4 单。本月（2025 年 11 月）交易所审核状态更新的 REITs 项目共计 6 单。 二级市场 REITs 指数下跌，市场活跃度回暖：11 月中证 REITs 全收 益指数收盘下跌 ...

Group 1 - The report discusses the recent decline in the bond market, particularly focusing on the reasons behind the drop and future market outlook [4][5] - Despite favorable factors such as weak fundamentals and ample liquidity, the overall bond market has seen more declines than gains, with long-term bonds performing particularly poorly [5][6] - The report highlights that the central bank's bond trading activity is primarily aimed at supporting government debt issuance, which has limited actual benefits for the bond market [6][7] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the supply of long-term bonds has significantly increased this year, with net financing of government bonds reaching 4.97 trillion yuan, of which 1.48 trillion yuan (30%) is from bonds with maturities over 10 years [7] - The report notes that banks are facing challenges in holding long-term bonds due to duration assessments and profit requirements, leading to a situation where some banks are unable to absorb long-term bonds effectively [7][8] - The trading volume of 10-year government bonds has decreased significantly, indicating a decline in market sentiment, with daily trading volumes dropping from around 60 billion yuan to 30 billion yuan [8] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report identifies three key factors that may cap interest rates: real estate data, local government debt management, and bank interest margins [10] - The report suggests that low interest rates are essential for stabilizing the real estate market and managing local government debt, with expectations for more supportive policies to emerge [10][11] - The analysis emphasizes that the balance between monetary easing and fiscal stimulus will be crucial for the bond market, with expectations for a moderate fiscal deficit around 4% and potential expansion of policy financial tools [12] Group 4 - The report highlights that institutional behavior and market narratives are becoming increasingly important in bond market strategies, with a focus on developing trading strategies and understanding market sentiment [13] - It notes that banks are under pressure to manage liabilities effectively, while insurance institutions face challenges due to slow premium growth and new accounting standards [13] - The report concludes that the bond market is likely to experience low interest rates and low volatility, with a projected downward adjustment of around 10 basis points for the 10-year government bond yield [14]

Group 1 - The bond market in 2025 experienced a "fast bull and slow bear" phase, with institutional behavior and market narratives becoming key factors in market pricing [3] - For 2026, three factors are expected to provide a ceiling for interest rates: real estate data, local government debt management, and bank interest margins [3] - Low interest rates are seen as essential for stabilizing the real estate market, reducing policy costs, and managing local government debt risks [3][4] Group 2 - The policy environment is expected to provide moderate support rather than strong stimulus, with fiscal and monetary policies likely to act in concert [4] - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected to be around 4.5%-5%, with fiscal policies maintaining a deficit rate near 4% and potential expansion of policy financial tools [4] - The balance between monetary easing and fiscal efforts will be crucial for identifying opportunities in the bond market [4] Group 3 - Institutional behavior and market narratives remain at the forefront of bond market strategies, with a focus on discovering trading strategies and interpreting market sentiments [4] - The current low net interest margin and the pressure on banks to manage liabilities indicate a challenging environment for bond investments [4] - The introduction of new regulations affecting fund redemptions may lead to short-term adjustments in the bond market [4] Group 4 - The real estate market is undergoing a slow recovery, with significant time needed to achieve repair goals [20] - The downward trend in real estate prices is impacting banks' collateral values, which could lead to increased risk exposure for banks [24] - The high leverage levels in both government and household sectors limit the potential for further demand in the real estate market [23]

Report Summary 1. Core Issues Addressed - Analyze the reasons for the recent decline in the bond market - Provide an outlook for the subsequent market trends [3] 2. Core Views - Interest rate decline requires positive factors for catalysis, and the yield curve may remain steep due to supply - demand dynamics - For band trading, it is advisable to avoid 30 - year treasury bonds for now. If investing in 30 - year treasury bonds, attention should be paid to the potential increase in liquidity of Special 02 and Ordinary 02 in the future - The coupon strategy has relatively higher certainty under loose liquidity conditions [6][8][18] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Event - In the past month, despite many positive factors in the bond market (weak fundamentals, loose funds, less supply in the fourth quarter, and the traditional year - end front - running behavior of institutions), the market has seen more declines than gains, and ultra - long bonds have performed particularly weakly. As of December 2, 25 Special 02 has reached its highest level since listing [4][13] 3.2 Comments - **Central Bank's Bond Transactions**: In November, the central bank's treasury bond transactions were only 50 billion yuan. After the news was announced, the active 30 - year treasury bond showed a repair of about 0.5 basis points, indicating that the previous pessimistic expectations had materialized. The central bank's bond transactions are mainly for government bond issuance and to maintain liquidity, with limited actual benefits to the bond market [6][14] - **Banks' Bond Sales for Profit - Taking**: This year is the second year with a significantly higher proportion of ultra - long bond supply. As of December 2, the net financing of treasury bonds this year was 4.97 trillion yuan, of which bonds with a maturity of over 10 years accounted for 30% (1.48 trillion yuan), compared with 28% in 2024 and 7% in 2023. Due to duration assessment and profit requirements, banks have a "negative feedback" effect on ultra - long bonds. Some banks, such as rural commercial banks, are unable to absorb more ultra - long bonds, and banks as a whole have the demand to sell old bonds through AC/OCI accounts to realize floating profits [6][15] - **Trading - Desk Negative Factors**: The trading volume of 10 - year treasury bonds has significantly declined, with the daily trading volume of the active 10 - year treasury bond dropping from about 60 billion yuan to about 30 billion yuan. From the CNEX divergence index on December 2, the main selling institutions are funds and securities firms. Public funds are facing the uncertainty of new redemption fee regulations, and securities firms are still short - selling 30 - year treasury bonds by borrowing them [6][8][18] - **Insurance Institutions' Investment Preference**: This year, the main investment of insurance institutions is local government bonds, which may further increase the volatility of 30 - year treasury bonds [8][18]