债券研究周报 2025 年 12 月 08 日 债券研究周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 郭溪源 S0350125090019 guoxy@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 固收买卖方怎么看待当前债市点位的配置价 值？ 最近一年走势 相关报告 《破局而立，波段致胜——2026 年利率债投资策 略*颜子琦，刘畅，洪子彦》——2025-12-03 《债券研究周报：固收买方开始看多债市*颜子琦》 ——2025-12-01 《债券研究周报：债市情绪处于分歧之中*颜子琦》 ——2025-11-24 《债券研究周报：债市卖方情绪回归谨慎*颜子琦》 ——2025-11-17 《债券研究周报：债市做多情绪还在持续吗？*颜 子琦》——2025-11-10 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：最新一周债市卖方与买方的观点情绪变 化； 从我们统计的债市情绪指数来看，12 月 2 日-12 月 8 日（后同），债市卖 方情绪继续回落，分歧度继续降低，买方情绪指数再度回落。近期债市 行情走弱，导致情绪侧继续承压，机构持续观望中，等待 12 月重 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, presenting opportunities for investment at the bottom of the market [3][4] - The poultry sector's fundamentals are expected to improve, with a focus on marginal changes in the cycle [4][5] - The animal health sector is closely monitoring the progress of African swine fever vaccine clinical trials, which could enhance the industry's competitive landscape [6][7] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly emerging and improving profitability [9][10] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs in November was 11.69 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/kg [15] - The number of breeding sows as of the end of October was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [15][16] - Investment suggestions include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with a focus on low-cost performance and dividend increases [16] Poultry Industry - The price of white feather broiler parent stock chicks was 41 yuan/set, down 6 yuan from the previous week [31] - The poultry sector is seeing a gradual recovery, with a recommendation for companies like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [32] Animal Health - The profitability of self-breeding pigs has been negative for over two months, impacting the animal health sector [40] - Companies like Bio-Pharmaceuticals and Keqian Bio are recommended due to their strong business layouts and customer resources [6][40] Planting Industry - The price of corn was 2229 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8% [45] - Companies with early reserves in genetically modified seeds are recommended, including Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [50] Feed Industry - The price of feed for fattening pigs was 3.32 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [51] - The feed industry is expected to see increased concentration, with recommendations for Haida Group and He Feng Stock [52] Pet Industry - The pet consumption market in urban China is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [58] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Stock, with a focus on the pet medical sector as well [59]

Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The report discusses the potential for an early spring market rally, suggesting that historical patterns indicate such rallies often occur ahead of schedule during bull markets [3][4] - Analysts believe that the current market environment, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, may catalyze an earlier-than-usual spring rally [4][5] - Growth sectors, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, are highlighted as key areas for investment as the market anticipates a shift towards growth styles [5] Group 2: Renewable Energy Sector - The report indicates a continuous improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the lithium battery industry, with production levels expected to stabilize around historical highs [10][11] - The solar energy sector is experiencing a decline in prices for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules, but supply-side reforms are expected to enhance market stability [6][7] - Wind energy projects are gaining momentum, with significant increases in domestic and international offshore wind turbine tenders, suggesting a robust growth outlook for the sector [7][8] Group 3: Aluminum Industry Insights - The aluminum market is experiencing upward price pressure due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, including anticipated interest rate cuts and improved manufacturing PMI [16][17] - Domestic production of electrolytic aluminum is slightly increasing, but demand remains mixed, with some sectors showing signs of weakness as the market enters a seasonal slowdown [17][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production rates in the aluminum sector, as these factors will influence future pricing trends [18][19] Group 4: Coal Market Dynamics - The coal market is expected to see price increases in December, driven by seasonal demand and production adjustments, despite recent price declines [26][29] - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the coal supply chain, including transportation issues and fluctuating demand from both power generation and industrial sectors [26][27] - Long-term trends suggest that coal prices may continue to rise due to structural factors such as rising operational costs and regulatory pressures [29][30] Group 5: Robotics Industry Developments - The report notes significant advancements in the robotics sector, with the U.S. government accelerating initiatives to promote industry growth [31][32] - Tesla's developments in humanoid robots are highlighted, indicating a focus on cost-effective production and potential market applications [32][33] - Various robotics companies are securing substantial funding to enhance their technological capabilities and market reach, indicating a vibrant investment landscape [34][35][37]

2025 年 12 月 07 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 曹操出行发布 [Table_Title] Robotaxi 战略目标，2025 年前 11 个月汽车以旧换新超 1120 万辆 ——汽车行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/12/05 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车 | -2.0% | -1.2% | 17.4% | | 沪深 300 | -0.9% | 2.8% | 16.9% | 相关报告 《汽车行业周报：阿维塔递交港股 IPO 申请，"蔚 小理"相继披露三季度财报（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》 ——2025-12-01 《汽车行业周报：广州车展开幕，小鹏 X9 增程版/ 享界 S9 新款上市，华为举办乾崑大会（推荐）* 汽车*戴畅》——2025-11-24 《汽车行业周报：10 月乘用车批发同比增 7.5%， 上汽智己 LS9 上市（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》—— 2025-11-18 年底多家车企发布购车 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the European offshore wind catalysis continues to strengthen, and the supply-demand pattern of lithium batteries is improving [1] - The overall performance of the power equipment sector shows positive changes and potential catalysts, maintaining an overall "Recommended" rating for the sector [7] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The power equipment sector has shown a performance of -5.4% over the last month, 10.2% over the last three months, and 33.1% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Key Events and Insights - In the photovoltaic sector, there is a continued decline in prices for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules, with a significant reduction in domestic polysilicon production by 15.9% month-on-month in November [4] - In the wind power sector, domestic offshore wind turbine bidding has reached 10.3GW, a 9% increase from the previous year, with significant developments in emerging markets [5] - The energy storage sector is seeing growth, with Trina Solar's energy storage shipments expected to exceed 5GWh in Q4, and a focus on overseas markets [5] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing high prosperity, with production expected to remain at a historical high of around 220GWh in December [5] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the silicon material sector such as GCL-Poly and Tongwei, as well as battery technology firms like LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar [4] - For wind power, companies like Dongfang Cable and Goldwind Technology are recommended due to their involvement in significant projects [5] - In the energy storage space, leading integrators and cell manufacturers such as Sungrow Power and CATL are highlighted as key players [5] - The lithium battery sector is advised to focus on leading companies like CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy, as the industry is moving towards a more rational growth phase [5]

研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘畅 S0350524090005 liuc06@ghzq.com.cn 2025 年 12 月 07 日 固定收益点评 [Table_Title] 定制债基知多少 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：债基持有人结构分析。 相关报告 《破局而立，波段致胜——2026 年利率债投资策 略*颜子琦，刘畅，洪子彦》——2025-12-03 《固定收益点评：理财整改倒计时，对债市影响几 何？*颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-11-29 《固定收益点评：年末"日历效应"，这次有何不 同？*颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-11-22 《固定收益点评：市场风格切换，固收+如何应对？ *颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-11-05 《固定收益点评：股债恒定 ETF 将至，债市迎来 新变量？*颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-10-29 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 债基以机构投资者为主。截至 2025 年 6 月末，债基的机构持仓比例 达 82.8%，若该比例保持不变，则截至 9 月末，机构投资者持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to an increase in aluminum prices [6][11] - Domestic aluminum supply is slightly increasing due to new projects, while demand is expected to weaken as the year-end approaches [7][11] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of December 5, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2900.5 per ton, up $35.5 from the previous week, and up $262.0 year-on-year [24] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥22,345.0 per ton, an increase of ¥735.0 week-on-week and ¥1,765.0 year-on-year [24] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥22,150.0 per ton, up ¥720.0 week-on-week and ¥1,740.0 year-on-year [24] 2. Production - In November 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.637 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons month-on-month and 66,000 tons year-on-year [56] - The production of alumina in November 2025 was 7.439 million tons, down 346,000 tons month-on-month but up 152,000 tons year-on-year [56] 3. Inventory - As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 596,000 tons, unchanged week-on-week [7] - The inventory of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants reached 3.365 million tons, with a weekly increase of 19,000 tons [34] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price ¥30.67, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.54, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price ¥14.07, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.00, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price ¥27.20, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.13, with a "Buy" rating [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price ¥11.40, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥0.84, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price ¥28.31, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.88, with a "Buy" rating [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has upward momentum in December, driven by seasonal demand increases and supply constraints [4][7] - The coal mining industry is characterized by high asset quality and strong cash flow among leading companies, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for coal prices [7] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of December 5, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 785 RMB/ton, a decrease of 31 RMB/ton week-on-week [14] - Production in the Sanxi region has seen a slight decrease in capacity utilization, down 0.61 percentage points [14][21] - Coastal and inland power plants have increased daily coal consumption by 7.3 and 35.3 thousand tons respectively [14][23] - The inventory of power plants in 25 provinces is 136.12 million tons, down 115 thousand tons year-on-year [14][34] 2. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate for coking coal mines has decreased by 0.17 percentage points to 84.5% [5][40] - The average crossing volume at Ganqimaodu port has increased, indicating stable import levels [5][44] - The price of main coking coal at ports is 1,630 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week [5][41] 3. Coke - The production rate of independent coking plants has increased slightly to 72.66% [53][59] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased to approximately 30 RMB/ton, down 16 RMB/ton week-on-week [57] - The price of coke at Rizhao port is 1,630 RMB/ton, a decrease of 50 RMB/ton week-on-week [54] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite remains stable, with the small block price at 930 RMB/ton [69] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, all rated as "Buy" [9]

2025 年 12 月 06 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 如果春季躁动提前，哪些方向值得关注？ 最近一年走势 相关报告 《流动性周报 12 月第 1 期：ETF 资金净流出，宏 观流动性边际收敛*赵阳》——2025-12-01 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 《流动性周报 11 月第 1 期：基金发行端回暖，杠 杆资金有所放缓*赵阳》——2025-11-24 阳》——2025-11-23 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 本篇报告主要讨论：1、每年 2 月是常规春季躁动区间，牛市年份是否会 提前？2、从市场环境上看，本轮的跨年春季行情有没有可能提前？3、 如果春季躁动提前，如何布局？ 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 1、从历史的跨年行情上看，整体胜率最高的是 2 月份，即"春季躁 动"行情的常规时间区间。但如果去看过去几轮牛市中继的年份， 我们发现"春季躁动"行情往往会提前。 ...

2025 年 12 月 05 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 207 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 一级市场项目进展顺利，产业园区板块承压--资产配置报告 FY2026H1 营收稳健增长，看好旺季销售表现--波司登/服装家纺(03998/213502) 点评报告（港股美股） 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、一级市场项目进展顺利，产业园区板块承压--资产配置报告 分析师：林加力 S0350524100005 分析师：许潇琦 S0350525080004 联系人：刘子路 S0350125080017 投资要点： 一级市场六单项目状态更新：截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，年内公募 REITs 市场已成功发行 19 单产品，较去年 同期（截至 2024 年 11 月 30 日）减少 5 单，其中 11 月新成立 1 单。根据交易所最新披露信息，近三个月处 于已申报状态的 REITs 产品有 2 单、已受理状态 2 单、交易所已反馈意见 5 单、已通过审核 4 单。本月 ...