2025 年 12 月 19 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 216 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、宠物行业专题报告：复盘宠物行业渠道变革，品牌精细化运营进入新阶 段——系列研究之三--行业 PPT 报告 分析师：王思言 S0350524010001 分析师：程一胜 S0350521070001 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、深度复盘国内宠物行业二十年渠道变迁的底层逻辑；2、辨析线上流量存 量博弈与线下服务壁垒的差异化价值；3、探寻在流量成本高企的当下，品牌如何通过渠道精细化运营与策略 分层实现突围。 复盘二十年国内宠物市场渠道变迁，经历了由线下到线上、由经销到直销的转变，借助电商渠道红利期，国产 宠物品牌发展迅速。2003-2012 年，中国宠物行业处于线下为王、经销主导的初步发展期，市场格局由外资 品牌掌控，国产宠物品牌起步；2012-2018 年，以"淘天系"及"双十一"为代表的电商红利，成为重塑宠 物行业格局的核心驱动力。20 ...

证券研究报告 2025年12月18日 2026年大类资产配置展望：动能切换，增长扩散 最近一年走势 相关报告 -11% -4% 2% 9% 16% 22% 2024/12/18 2025/02/182025/04/182025/06/182025/08/18 2025/10/18 沪深300 《2025年中央经济工作会议解读：实施城乡居民增收计划，推动投资止跌回 稳*林加力，许潇琦》——2025-12-12 《公募REITs月报：一级市场项目进展顺利，产业园区板块承压*林加力，许 潇琦》——2025-12-04 《公募REITs月报：二级市场整体承压，新基建板块迎结构性行情*林加力， 许潇琦》——2025-11-05 相对沪深300表现 林加力(证券分析师) 许潇琦(证券分析师) 袁雨琦(证券分析师) 刘子路(联系人) S0350524100005 S0350525080004 S0350525080005 S0350125080017 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn xuxq01@ghzq.com.cn yuanyq@ghzq.com.cn liuzl02@ghzq.com.cn | 表现 | 1M ...

证券研究报告 2025年12月18日 农林牧渔 宠物行业专题报告： 复盘宠物行业渠道变革，品牌精细化运营进入新阶段 ——系列研究之三 评级：推荐(维持) 程一胜(证券分析师) 王思言(证券分析师) S0350521070001 S0350524010001 chengys01@ghzq.com.cn wangsy02@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -12% -5% 2% 9% 16% 22% 2024/12/17 2025/12/17 农林牧渔 沪深300 《农林牧渔行业周报：去产能迎来加速阶段，布局生猪底部（推荐）*农林牧渔 *程一胜，熊子兴，王思言》——2025-12-08 《农林牧渔行业周报：生猪去化或将加速（推荐）*农林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴， 王思言》——2025-11-10 《农林牧渔行业周报：双十一开启，关注宠物板块行情（推荐）*农林牧渔*程 一胜，熊子兴，王思言》——2025-10-20 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | -2.8% | -4.4% | 11.4% | | 沪深30 ...

Group 1: Company Dynamics - The pre-sale of the "Yangtze River Xinglan" cruise has officially launched, marking the entry of the interstate cruise business into a performance realization phase. The first sailing is scheduled for April 18, 2026, with prices starting at 4,399 yuan per person for standard luxury rooms [3][4] - The cruise is designed as a high-end vacation vessel, measuring approximately 150 meters in length and 23 meters in width, with a total tonnage of 17,000 tons. It features 259 cabins and can accommodate up to 650 passengers, with energy savings of over 20% compared to similar-sized vessels [4] - The company plans to build a total of four interstate cruises, with the first expected to be operational by June 2026. Once all four are operational, the projected annual revenue is approximately 395 million yuan, with a net profit of around 100 million yuan [4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The report discusses the historical evolution and global opportunities for Chinese securities firms venturing abroad. It highlights that the international business revenue of highly internationalized securities firms can reach about 25%, indicating significant growth potential for Chinese firms [6] - The favorable factors for securities firms expanding overseas include government policies encouraging international operations and increasing interest from foreign capital in Chinese assets, particularly in emerging markets like Southeast Asia [6] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Developments - The innovative dual-target GLP-1 receptor and GIP receptor agonist HDM1005 has shown promising results in weight management during its Phase II clinical trials in China, with significant weight loss observed across various dosage groups [8][9] - The safety profile of HDM1005 is favorable, with most adverse events being mild to moderate, and no serious adverse events related to the treatment were reported [10] - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 45.19 billion yuan, 47.72 billion yuan, and 50.36 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.91 billion yuan, 4.50 billion yuan, and 5.02 billion yuan [10] Group 4: Insurance Sector Analysis - The implementation of new insurance regulations is expected to reshape the behavior of insurance companies, with a focus on optimizing asset allocation and managing capital adequacy under the new "Solvency II" framework [11][12] - The report indicates that the demand for high-quality credit bonds is increasing, while the preference for lower-rated bonds is declining, suggesting a shift in investment strategies among insurance firms [15] - The overall premium income for insurance companies has shown a steady increase, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0%, although the growth rate is lower than in previous years [15] Group 5: Investment Strategies in AI - The report emphasizes the investment focus on AI applications, particularly in smart driving, AI hardware, and internet companies transitioning to AI, predicting a structural market upturn in 2026 [17] - The representative fund managed by Liu Yuanhai has consistently outperformed the CSI 300 index, demonstrating strong excess return capabilities and a high annual win rate [18]

- The report primarily focuses on analyzing the investment system and representative products of Liu Yuanhai from Dongwu Fund, providing research references for FOF investors[1][6] - Liu Yuanhai's investment system emphasizes industry trend-driven investment, closely tracking technological innovation and industry penetration changes, and mainly participating in the growth stage of industries[8] - The Dongwu Mobile Internet A fund (001323) is a flexible allocation fund focusing on the mobile internet theme, with significant long-term performance outperforming the CSI 300 Index[12][13] - The fund's performance attribution analysis using the Fama-French five-factor model shows that its returns are mainly derived from market factor exposure and significant alpha, while value and investment factors contribute negatively[34][37] - The fund maintains a high equity position and high stock concentration, reflecting the fund manager's confidence in core holdings[42][43] - The fund's heavy positions are mainly in the TMT sector, with significant contributions from leading stocks in sub-sectors, although this also brings certain volatility risks[47][52][53]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the successful progress of the dual-target GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonist HDM1005, developed by the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, in a Phase II clinical trial for weight management in China [3][4] - The weight loss effects of HDM1005 are significant, with weight reductions of -7.47%, -9.73%, -13.31%, and -13.28% observed in different dosage groups compared to a placebo group [4] - The safety profile of HDM1005 is favorable, with most adverse events being mild to moderate, and no serious adverse events related to treatment reported [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 45.187 billion yuan, 47.721 billion yuan, and 50.358 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.906 billion yuan, 4.498 billion yuan, and 5.022 billion yuan [4][7] - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.68X, 15.35X, and 13.75X respectively [4][7] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic prescription drug enterprise with a rich product pipeline and strong brand capabilities [4]

Group 1: Banking Industry Strategy - The report addresses the investment value of the banking sector and the theoretical basis for valuation improvement and timing strategies [3] - The estimated net interest margin for banks is expected to remain stable year-on-year [4] - The upcoming maturity of a large number of three-year fixed deposits in 2023 and the shift in monetary policy from broad to targeted interest rate cuts are expected to stabilize net interest margins, positively impacting banks' ROE [5] - The current market pessimism regarding future ROE is reflected in the widespread trading below book value, which is anticipated to correct [5] - The valuation of Chinese banks is significantly undervalued compared to the US and Japan, with a mismatch between PB and ROE [5] - The banking sector is expected to provide absolute and relative returns in the first and fourth quarters due to seasonal characteristics [6] - The report maintains a "recommend" rating for the banking industry based on the stabilization of net interest margins and positive performance outlook [6] Group 2: Coal Industry Dynamics - In November 2025, coal production remained stable with a total output of 430 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [7][10] - Coal imports in November 2025 decreased by 19.87% year-on-year, with the decline expanding compared to October [11] - The overall coal supply in November 2025 showed a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, with a narrowing decline compared to October [11] - The demand side saw a decline in thermal power generation, which dropped by 4.2% year-on-year, while chemical and metallurgical sectors recorded positive contributions [12][16] - The average price of coal at northern ports increased by 10% month-on-month, reflecting a significant rise due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand [15][16] - The report highlights the long-term upward trend in coal prices driven by rising costs, safety and environmental investments, and increased taxation [17] - The coal mining industry is rated as "recommended," with a focus on companies with strong cash flow and high asset quality [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Insights - The coal mining industry is experiencing a mixed supply and demand scenario, with production and imports declining, while coal prices are on the rise due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [14][21] - The report highlights the resilience of major coal companies, emphasizing their strong cash flow and profitability, which positions them well for future growth despite market fluctuations [14] Supply Side Summary - Coal production in November 2025 was 430 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, but the decline was less severe than in October [20][21] - Coal imports fell by 19.87% year-on-year in November, with a total of 44.05 million tons imported, reflecting supply chain disruptions and high base effects from the previous year [9][28] - Overall coal supply in November showed a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline narrowed compared to October [28] Demand Side Summary - The demand for coal is being negatively impacted by a 4.2% year-on-year decline in thermal power generation in November, contrasting with a 7.3% increase in October [10][29] - Chemical and metallurgical sectors are showing positive contributions to coal consumption, with chemical industry coal usage increasing by 8.22% year-on-year [12][41] Inventory Summary - Power plants are replenishing their coal inventories, with significant increases noted in November, while upstream coal inventories remain low [13][14] - The inventory levels for coking coal are also rising but are still considered low overall [13] Price Summary - The average price of thermal coal at northern ports rose to 822 RMB per ton in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% [13] - The report anticipates that coal prices may stabilize due to seasonal demand and supply adjustments, despite the ongoing fluctuations [14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [15][14] - It highlights the investment value of coal stocks due to their high dividends and cash flow characteristics, recommending a strategic approach to investing in the sector [14]

Core Insights - The report highlights the rising prices of phosphate fertilizers and polyurethane, indicating a focus on the chemical industry amidst internal competition and chromium salt demand [3][5][29] - The report suggests that the ongoing tensions in Sino-Japanese relations may accelerate the domestic substitution of semiconductor materials, particularly in the context of high market share held by Japanese suppliers [4][29] - The chemical industry is expected to experience a significant transformation, with a shift from being a "cash-consuming" sector to a "cash-generating" one, driven by changes in supply dynamics and potential increases in dividend yields [5][29] Industry Summaries Phosphate and Chromium Salt - The chemical industry index shows a slight decline, with the current index at 91.63, down 0.18 from the previous week [3] - The chromium salt sector is experiencing a value reassessment due to increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with a projected supply-demand gap of 340,900 tons by 2028 [5][6] Chemical Industry Opportunities - Key opportunities identified include low-cost expansion in companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, and sectors such as oil and coal chemicals, organic silicon, and glyphosate [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend yields in state-owned enterprises within the chemical sector, recommending investments in companies like China Petroleum and China National Chemical [8] New Materials Sector - The new materials sector is highlighted as a critical growth area, with a focus on electronic chemicals, aerospace materials, and biodegradable plastics, driven by rapid demand growth and policy support [35][41][46] - The establishment of a national-level platform for polysilicon capacity integration is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the silicon material industry [42][43] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on new energy vehicles and high-end models, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [49][50] - The report notes that the automotive industry index outperformed the broader market, with significant growth in electric vehicle sales [52] Bond Market Insights - The report discusses the decline in trading volume for 10-year government bonds, suggesting a shift in investor preference towards longer-duration bonds, influenced by the current low-interest-rate environment [30][31][32]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the bond market sentiment after the economic work conference from December 9th to December 15th, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - During the period from December 9th to December 15th, the sentiment of bond market sellers increased slightly, while that of buyers continued to decline, showing a K-shaped divergence. The market divergence has increased, and the year - end bond allocation market is still weak, waiting for the catalytic effect of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut expectations [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From December 9th to December 15th, the tracking unweighted index was 0.21, up 0.13 from December 2nd to December 8th. Some institutions' views turned bullish. Currently, 7 institutions are bullish, 15 are neutral, and 2 are bearish. 29% of institutions are bullish due to insufficient domestic demand, slow credit and social financing data, expectations of further easing policies, oversold technical indicators, and released negative factors. 63% are neutral as the market is insensitive to positive factors, the stock market attracts funds, and bond investors are cautious. 8% are bearish as the bond market's rebound may end, and price recovery and the equity market's spring rally may suppress the bond market [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From December 9th to December 15th, the tracking unweighted sentiment index was 0.00, lower than that from December 2nd to December 8th. The sentiment index continued to decline. Currently, 4 institutions are bullish, 17 are neutral, and 4 are bearish. 16% of institutions are bullish because of increased economic fundamental pressure, stronger expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and positive signals from the economic work conference. 68% are neutral as the "stock - bond seesaw" effect still exists, potential regulatory policy changes increase market uncertainty, and traditional allocation funds lack motivation. 16% are bearish as there is a policy vacuum at the turn of the year, lack of policy support, and capital games overriding fundamental logic [13].