宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2024 年 10 月 27 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 2024 年年底前的三个重要事件 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 经济数据：1-9 月，全国一般公共预算收入 163059 亿元，同比下降 2.2%； 全国一般公共预算支出 201779 亿元，同比增长 2%。 要闻：十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议将于 11 月 4 日至 8 日在北京 举行；国家领导人在"金砖+"领导人对话会上发表讲话；10 月 1 年期 LPR 为 3.10%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.60%，均下降 25 个基点；央行 10 月 21 日开展了证券、基金、保险公司互换便利首次操作。 资产表现回顾 A 股期货上涨，固收类收益率下行。本周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.79%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 0.5%；焦煤期货本周上涨 0.45%，铁矿石主力合约本周 上涨 0.92%；股份制银行理财预期收益率下跌 2BP 至 1.88%，余额宝 7 天 年化收益率下跌 6BP 至 1.37%；十年国债收益率上行 3BP 至 2.15%，活跃 十年国债期货本周下跌 0.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry as "Outperforming the Market" [23]. Core Insights - The medical beauty segment still has growth potential, particularly in collagen injection products and regenerative medical aesthetics. Despite consumer pressure, there are attractive star products that can drive customer acquisition and profit for medical beauty institutions [3][18]. - The pharmaceutical industry possesses strong long-term growth drivers, especially in the context of aging populations and changing disease profiles. There are many unmet clinical needs, and the overseas market remains promising due to the continuous improvement of China's innovative drug development capabilities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Index increased by 3.11% from October 21 to October 25, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.32 percentage points [2][10]. - All sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry saw an increase during the same period, with the overall sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) reaching 27.07 times, a significant improvement compared to the lows in July-August 2024 [2][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative medical devices and drugs that are entering rapid sales growth phases, such as companies like Baijun Medical, Sanyou Medical, and others in the innovative drug sector like Heng Rui Medicine and Xin Da Biology [4]. - It also highlights opportunities arising from a recovery in consumer confidence, recommending companies like Jiangsu Wuzhong and Huadong Medicine [4]. Medical Aesthetics Growth - The regenerative medical aesthetics market has limited existing products and appeals to consumers due to its high-end positioning. For instance, Jiangsu Wuzhong reported a significant revenue increase in its medical aesthetics business, driven by the successful launch of its core product Aesthefill [19]. - The report notes that the number of approved collagen injection products in mainland China is still low, with humanized recombinant collagen products being particularly advantageous due to their superior biocompatibility [19].

Fiscal Revenue Insights - In September, total public fiscal revenue reached CNY 15,283.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, improving by 5.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Tax revenue for September was CNY 10,656.0 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.0%, but the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - Non-tax revenue significantly improved, totaling CNY 4,627.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 25.2%, an increase of 16.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] Fiscal Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal expenditure in September amounted to CNY 27,881.0 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, a notable improvement of 11.9 percentage points[7] - Local public fiscal expenditure reached CNY 23,579.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, improving by 14.5 percentage points from the previous month[7] - The share of public fiscal expenditure directed towards infrastructure reached 21.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a focus on "stabilizing growth" initiatives[8] Government Fund Budget Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, total government fund budget revenue was CNY 30,861.0 billion, down 20.2% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed by 0.9 percentage points[11] - September saw government fund expenditure of CNY 12,277.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%, significantly improving by 48.2 percentage points from the previous month[15] - Local government fund expenditure was CNY 11,875.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 35.7%, marking a substantial increase of 50.2 percentage points from the previous month[15] Economic Outlook - The overall fiscal expenditure for the first nine months of 2024 reached CNY 262,227.0 billion, accounting for 64.6% of the annual fiscal budget target, indicating a relatively low level historically[17] - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal policies and promote high-quality economic development in the fourth quarter, with expectations for increased fiscal spending[17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] - The previous rating was also "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the accelerated digital transformation in finance, as highlighted by the recent statements from the Vice Chairman of the CSRC regarding the promotion of fintech applications in the capital market [2][3] - The company maintains a leading position in financial IT, which positions it well to capitalize on the ongoing digital transformation [3] - Continuous product iteration is expected to sustain the company's core competitiveness, with new systems and platforms being developed and signed with multiple new brokerage firms [3] - A recent stock incentive plan demonstrates the company's confidence in long-term growth, with performance targets set for net profit growth [3] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 7,568 million, with a growth rate of 3.9% [4] - The projected net profit for 2024 is RMB 1,472 million, reflecting a growth rate of 3.4% [4] - The estimated EPS for 2024 is RMB 0.78, with a downward adjustment of 30.1% from previous forecasts [4] - The company’s PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 34X, 29X, and 24X respectively [3][4] Shareholder Information - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately RMB 49,816 million [2] - The major shareholder is Hangzhou Hengsheng Electronic Group Co., Ltd., holding 20.79% of the shares [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company has increased its R&D investment, solidifying its long-term technological barriers [3] - The company reported a revenue of 290 million RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.71 million RMB, a decrease of 84.9% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is expanding its product categories and has made significant progress in its EDA software offerings [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company's main business revenue was 120 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.17 million RMB, down 81.6% year-on-year [3] - R&D expenses reached 200 million RMB in the first three quarters, an increase of 37.7% year-on-year [3] Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with overseas business revenue exceeding 6 million RMB in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.9% [3] Product Development - The company has launched new EDA software products, including DFT tools and a semiconductor AI application platform, which have been successfully implemented and generated sales [3] Valuation - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 140 million, 210 million, and 280 million RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.71, 1.03, and 1.42 RMB, reflecting a downward adjustment of 58.7%-63.1% [3][4]

Key Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in the offshore wind power sector in China, driven by the steady progress of projects in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces, which had previously faced delays due to military and navigation approvals [2][3] - The wind power equipment sector saw a 5.86% increase, with notable stock performances from companies like Hai Li Wind Power and Jin Lei Co., both exceeding 7% growth [2] - The report indicates a strong demand for wind turbine installations, with a total of 89.17 GW of wind turbine capacity tendered in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 110.3% year-on-year increase [3] Wind Power Equipment Sector - The resumption of bidding for the Jiangsu Guoxin project and the successful bid for the Guangdong Fan Stone offshore cable project signal a positive trend in offshore wind development [3] - The report notes that the high number of tenders is expected to support installation demand for the next 1-2 years, with onshore projects leading the growth [3] - A consensus among manufacturers to curb price wars is anticipated to improve profitability across the supply chain, which has been under pressure due to aggressive pricing strategies [3] Photovoltaic Industry - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has called for compliance in competitive practices, warning against bidding below production costs and promising to report such actions to regulatory authorities [5][6] - The report outlines a significant increase in production capacity for silicon wafers, cells, and modules, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.6% and 66.7% respectively [6] - The association's efforts to stabilize component prices are expected to enhance profit margins for manufacturers, with a projected minimum selling price for components set at 0.68 CNY/W [7] Company Performance - Jinbo Biological reported a revenue of 988 million CNY for Q1-Q3 2024, reflecting a 91.16% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 520 million CNY, up 170.42% [9][10] - Jiangsu Wuzhong achieved a revenue of 1.647 billion CNY in the same period, a 9.58% increase, with a remarkable net profit growth of 311.54% [12][13] - The medical beauty segment of Jiangsu Wuzhong showed strong performance, contributing significantly to revenue growth with a gross margin of 82.17% [14]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a shift towards growth style investments in the coming months based on recent data trends [1][9] - Growth and value styles are defined with growth focusing on high revenue growth, high profit growth, and high ROE, while value focuses on low PE, high PCF, high dividend yield, and low PB [1][10] - The differentiation between growth and value styles began to take shape after 2010, with significant changes in their performance metrics observed [1][11][16] Group 2 - Historical performance of active equity funds shows a good grasp of style selection until 2023, where a deviation in judgment was noted [1][20] - From 2010 to 2022, the performance of active equity funds was closely aligned with the growth and value styles, indicating a strong trend-following behavior [1][20] - Post-2019, there was a significant tilt towards growth investments, particularly in the new energy sector, leading to an imbalance in portfolio allocations [1][23][25] Group 3 - The pricing factors for growth and value styles are influenced by compound growth rates and discount rates, with key indicators selected for analysis [1][27] - Indicators affecting the numerator include relative profit/ROE growth, PMI, and CPI-PPI, while those affecting the denominator include ERP, yield spreads, and US Treasury rates [1][28][33] - The report highlights that the net value of the CPI-PPI indicator since June 2015 has outperformed the benchmark, indicating its effectiveness in guiding investment decisions [1][28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - The wind power equipment sector has shown a significant increase, with a 5.86% rise in the sector on October 22, 2024, driven by strong performances from companies like HaiLi Wind Power and JinLei Co., which saw gains exceeding 7% [2]. - Domestic offshore wind projects are gradually advancing, particularly in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces, which are expected to lead to a recovery in the offshore wind power sector [3]. - The bidding environment remains robust, with a reported 89.17 GW of wind turbine capacity bid in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 110.3% year-on-year increase, which is anticipated to support installation demand in the coming years [3]. - A consensus among manufacturers to curb excessive competition has been established, which is expected to improve the profitability of the industry chain [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The offshore wind power sector is experiencing a turnaround due to the steady progress of projects in key provinces, overcoming previous regulatory hurdles [2][3]. - The bidding activity for wind turbines has reached a record high, with significant contributions from both onshore and offshore projects, indicating strong future installation demand [3]. Market Opportunities - Companies involved in offshore wind components, such as HaiLi Wind Power and TaiSheng Wind Energy, are recommended for investment due to their potential for growth in the improving market [3]. Competitive Landscape - The signing of a self-regulatory agreement among 12 wind power companies aims to address issues of unfair competition and improve market conditions, which is expected to enhance the overall profitability of the industry [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached RMB 1.647 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.58%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 45 million, up 311.54% year-on-year [2][3] - The medical beauty segment showed strong performance, with revenue of RMB 199 million and a gross margin of 82.17% [2][3] - The pharmaceutical business faced revenue pressure, with a decline of 12.42% year-on-year, totaling RMB 1.14 billion [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 34.54%, an increase of 6.20 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] - The Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 441 million, a 9.46% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 21 million, up 225.41% year-on-year [2][3] Business Segments - The pharmaceutical segment's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was RMB 1.14 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 39 million, a decrease of 3.24% year-on-year [2][3] - The medical beauty segment's revenue was RMB 199 million, primarily driven by the successful launch of the core product Aesthefill [2][3] Valuation - The report adjusts profit expectations, forecasting net profits of RMB 80 million, RMB 190 million, and RMB 307 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.11, RMB 0.27, and RMB 0.43 [2][3] - The expected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 97.4x, 41.1x, and 25.5x respectively [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2][3] Core Views - The company has demonstrated rapid growth, with a revenue of RMB 988 million for Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 91.16%, and a net profit of RMB 520 million, up 170.42% year-on-year [2][3] - The gross margin continues to improve, reaching 92.37% for Q1-Q3 2024, an increase of 2.40 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] - The company is focused on the recombinant collagen field, with unique advantages in its products, particularly the recombinant type III humanized collagen, which is rare in the market [2][3] Financial Summary - For 2024, 2025, and 2026, the expected net profits are RMB 700 million, RMB 975 million, and RMB 1.324 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 7.91, RMB 11.01, and RMB 14.96 [2][3] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with a forecast of RMB 1.445 billion in 2024, RMB 2.015 billion in 2025, and RMB 2.647 billion in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 85.2%, 39.4%, and 31.4% respectively [3][4] - The expected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31.2x, 22.4x, and 16.5x, indicating a strong valuation outlook [3][4] Operational Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced its selling and administrative expense ratios, with selling expenses down 3.98 percentage points year-on-year to 17.38% and management expenses down 3.06 percentage points to 8.42% for Q1-Q3 2024 [2][3] - The EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be RMB 916 million, with a significant growth rate of 131.9% [3][4]