Economic Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size totaled CNY 52,281.6 billion, a year-on-year decline of 3.5%, with a significant drop of 4.0 percentage points compared to January-August[2] - In September, profits of industrial enterprises fell by 27.1% year-on-year, worsening by 9.3 percentage points from August[2] Revenue and Cost Analysis - Revenue for industrial enterprises in the first three quarters increased by 2.1% year-on-year, down by 0.3 percentage points from January-August, achieving CNY 77.2 in revenue per CNY 100 of assets, an increase of CNY 0.7[2] - Operating costs rose by 2.4% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to January-August, indicating cost pressures impacting profitability[2] Profitability Metrics - The operating profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from January-August[4] - The industrial added value growth rate in September was 5.4%, up by 0.9 percentage points from August, providing some support to profitability despite ongoing price weakness[4] Sector-Specific Insights - Manufacturing profits declined by 3.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a negative shift of 4.9 percentage points compared to January-August, indicating weakened support for overall industrial profitability[5] - The raw material processing industry continued to weaken, contributing negatively to profit growth by 3.3 percentage points, with significant contributions from the petroleum, coal, and non-metallic mineral industries[5] Demand and Policy Implications - Demand-side constraints remain a significant issue for industrial profitability, particularly linked to the real estate sector's investment shortfalls[12] - The Central Political Bureau's recent meeting emphasized the need for increased fiscal policies to stimulate demand, with expectations for enhanced government investment and income redistribution measures to boost domestic consumption[12] Risk Factors - Potential risks include overseas recession and geopolitical uncertainties, which could further impact industrial profitability and economic stability[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3][4] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable growth in performance, with a 9.68% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 21.66% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [3][4] - The marketing model reform has shown effectiveness, contributing to rapid growth in both hospital and community markets [4] - The company is entering a new development phase characterized by a combination of innovation and generics, focusing on R&D in the fields of mental health and cardiovascular diseases [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.209 billion RMB, a 9.68% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 575 million RMB, up 21.66% [4] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.059 billion RMB, reflecting a 7.06% year-on-year growth, while net profit increased by 10.33% to 173 million RMB [4] R&D and Innovation - R&D expenses for Q1-Q3 2024 amounted to 269 million RMB, a 3.85% increase, with an R&D expense ratio of 8.40% [4] - The company has successfully commercialized its first Class 1 new drug, Jinnoning® (Didasin), and is actively pursuing further developments in its product pipeline [4] Marketing Strategy - The company is enhancing its integrated approach from intermediates to APIs to formulations, which is expected to create additional growth opportunities [4] - The reform in marketing strategies is yielding results, with efforts to expand into various hospital tiers and strengthen partnerships with chain pharmacies [4] Valuation - Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 740 million RMB, 843 million RMB, and 965 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.86 RMB, 0.98 RMB, and 1.12 RMB [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 15.0x, 13.2x, and 11.5x for the same periods, indicating potential for performance improvement as R&D results materialize [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that energy consumption control policies in the photovoltaic sector are expected to be further implemented, potentially reversing supply and demand in the silicon material segment. This will drive up prices for components, benefiting leading manufacturers with high profitability elasticity [1]. - In the wind power sector, steady progress in domestic offshore and onshore wind bidding and construction is anticipated, with improved demand expected to drive profitability recovery in the complete machine and component segments [1]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in complete machines and casting segments that are likely to benefit from offshore wind and international expansion logic [1]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, the upcoming sales season is expected to boost demand across the supply chain, with material segments still facing profitability pressures. However, a reduction in material price pressures is anticipated, leading to potential profitability recovery [1]. - The report emphasizes the accelerated development of solid-state battery industrialization, indicating that companies involved in batteries, materials, and equipment in related fields are likely to benefit [1]. - The domestic push for electricity system reform and the National Energy Administration's notification on renewable energy consumption is expected to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid infrastructure, maintaining high demand for related grid equipment [1]. - The hydrogen energy sector is also highlighted, with ongoing policy support for industrialization, suggesting a focus on companies with cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production and those benefiting from hydrogen infrastructure development [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electric equipment and new energy sector saw a weekly increase of 9.10%, outperforming the broader market. The power generation equipment segment rose by 24.87%, photovoltaic by 18.41%, wind power by 17.55%, nuclear power by 6.73%, and new energy vehicles by 6.18% [1][6][8]. Key Industry Information - The report notes that the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a notification to improve the carbon emission statistical accounting system, aiming for completion by 2030. In September 2024, China's photovoltaic installed capacity reached 20.89 GW, a year-on-year increase of 32% [1][12][13]. - Major companies reported varying profitability, with some experiencing significant declines while others, like Goldwind Technology, reported a 42.14% increase in profits [1]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the current state of the silicon material market, indicating a weak demand and stable pricing, with domestic block silicon prices averaging around 40 RMB per kg. The silicon wafer market remains pessimistic, with prices for various specifications adjusting downward [10][11]. - Battery prices have remained stable, with P-type M10 and G12 battery prices averaging 0.28 RMB per watt, while N-type battery prices also held steady [10][11]. Company Developments - Notable developments include CATL's release of a new battery model and Tesla's plans for a more affordable vehicle model starting in mid-2025. The report also highlights the expected increase in new energy vehicle sales in October 2024 [12][13].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n10 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n股票名称 | | 2024 年 10 月 28 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241028 | | 600383.SH | | 金地集团 | | | | 3900.HK | | 绿城中国 | | | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 | -W | ■ 重点关注 | | | | | | | | 002648.SZ 688 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the increase in international oil prices and the rise in BDO prices, indicating a positive trend in the chemical sector [1] - It suggests focusing on leading companies in high-demand sectors such as refrigerants and vitamins, as well as undervalued industry leaders in light hydrocracking and polyester filament [1][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, particularly for large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies [1][5] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of October 21-27, among 101 tracked chemical products, 30 saw price increases, 45 experienced declines, and 26 remained stable [1][20] - The average price of BDO increased by 9.33% to 8200 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and improved demand [1][20] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude futures closing at 71.78 USD/barrel (up 3.70%) and Brent crude at 76.05 USD/barrel (up 4.09%) [1][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant and vitamin sectors, as well as undervalued industry leaders in light hydrocracking and polyester filament [1][5] - It also suggests monitoring large energy state-owned enterprises for improvements in operations and performance under new reforms [1][5] - Long-term investment themes include the continuation of high oil prices benefiting the oil and gas extraction sector and the potential recovery of the semiconductor industry [1][5] Price Trends - The report notes that the average price of refrigerants has slightly increased, with R22 averaging 31000 CNY/ton (up 1.31%) and R32 at 39000 CNY/ton (up 2.63%) [1][20] - The report indicates that the overall chemical industry is experiencing a mixed price trend, with some products seeing significant price increases while others decline [1][20] Financial Metrics - As of October 27, the SW basic chemical sector's P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 21.17, at the 55.75% historical percentile, while the P/B ratio is 1.82, at the 11.83% historical percentile [1][5] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector's P/E ratio is 10.74, at the 11.32% historical percentile, and the P/B ratio is 1.26, at the 5.19% historical percentile [1][5]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of internal rotation within the technology sector, highlighting its strong expected growth potential despite current weak performance in certain sub-sectors [1] - The report suggests that the technology growth advantage will continue, with a focus on short-term fluctuations driven by overseas factors [1][13] - The report notes that the recent decline in LPR has positively influenced market sentiment, leading to significant increases across most industries [15] Industry Overview - The technology manufacturing sector has shown rapid internal rotation, particularly among military, media, and electric new energy industries, driven by a favorable market sentiment and investor preference for potential recovery sectors [15] - The report indicates that the photovoltaic industry is expected to rebound as component prices are likely to touch bottom, with recent bidding prices showing significant increases [20] - The report highlights that the semiconductor cycle is on the rise, which is expected to enhance the profitability of emerging growth assets [13][15] Fund Performance and Trends - The report reveals that active equity funds have stabilized in terms of asset and holding scale, but pricing power has weakened, indicating a significant redemption pressure despite a 15.9% increase in stock indices [15][17] - The report notes a shift in fund allocation, with increased investments in midstream sectors and a reduction in upstream resources, reflecting a broader trend towards more stable sectors [17] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of the upcoming U.S. elections and key economic data releases on market sentiment, suggesting that these factors will play a crucial role in the short-term performance of the A-share market [1][13] - The report indicates that the recent policy measures have effectively supported market sentiment, leading to a favorable environment for technology and growth-oriented assets [15]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2024 年 10 月 27 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 2024 年年底前的三个重要事件 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 经济数据：1-9 月，全国一般公共预算收入 163059 亿元，同比下降 2.2%； 全国一般公共预算支出 201779 亿元，同比增长 2%。 要闻：十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议将于 11 月 4 日至 8 日在北京 举行；国家领导人在"金砖+"领导人对话会上发表讲话；10 月 1 年期 LPR 为 3.10%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.60%，均下降 25 个基点；央行 10 月 21 日开展了证券、基金、保险公司互换便利首次操作。 资产表现回顾 A 股期货上涨，固收类收益率下行。本周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.79%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 0.5%；焦煤期货本周上涨 0.45%，铁矿石主力合约本周 上涨 0.92%；股份制银行理财预期收益率下跌 2BP 至 1.88%，余额宝 7 天 年化收益率下跌 6BP 至 1.37%；十年国债收益率上行 3BP 至 2.15%，活跃 十年国债期货本周下跌 0.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry as "Outperforming the Market" [23]. Core Insights - The medical beauty segment still has growth potential, particularly in collagen injection products and regenerative medical aesthetics. Despite consumer pressure, there are attractive star products that can drive customer acquisition and profit for medical beauty institutions [3][18]. - The pharmaceutical industry possesses strong long-term growth drivers, especially in the context of aging populations and changing disease profiles. There are many unmet clinical needs, and the overseas market remains promising due to the continuous improvement of China's innovative drug development capabilities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Index increased by 3.11% from October 21 to October 25, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.32 percentage points [2][10]. - All sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry saw an increase during the same period, with the overall sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) reaching 27.07 times, a significant improvement compared to the lows in July-August 2024 [2][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative medical devices and drugs that are entering rapid sales growth phases, such as companies like Baijun Medical, Sanyou Medical, and others in the innovative drug sector like Heng Rui Medicine and Xin Da Biology [4]. - It also highlights opportunities arising from a recovery in consumer confidence, recommending companies like Jiangsu Wuzhong and Huadong Medicine [4]. Medical Aesthetics Growth - The regenerative medical aesthetics market has limited existing products and appeals to consumers due to its high-end positioning. For instance, Jiangsu Wuzhong reported a significant revenue increase in its medical aesthetics business, driven by the successful launch of its core product Aesthefill [19]. - The report notes that the number of approved collagen injection products in mainland China is still low, with humanized recombinant collagen products being particularly advantageous due to their superior biocompatibility [19].

Fiscal Revenue Insights - In September, total public fiscal revenue reached CNY 15,283.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, improving by 5.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Tax revenue for September was CNY 10,656.0 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.0%, but the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - Non-tax revenue significantly improved, totaling CNY 4,627.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 25.2%, an increase of 16.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] Fiscal Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal expenditure in September amounted to CNY 27,881.0 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, a notable improvement of 11.9 percentage points[7] - Local public fiscal expenditure reached CNY 23,579.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, improving by 14.5 percentage points from the previous month[7] - The share of public fiscal expenditure directed towards infrastructure reached 21.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a focus on "stabilizing growth" initiatives[8] Government Fund Budget Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, total government fund budget revenue was CNY 30,861.0 billion, down 20.2% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed by 0.9 percentage points[11] - September saw government fund expenditure of CNY 12,277.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%, significantly improving by 48.2 percentage points from the previous month[15] - Local government fund expenditure was CNY 11,875.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 35.7%, marking a substantial increase of 50.2 percentage points from the previous month[15] Economic Outlook - The overall fiscal expenditure for the first nine months of 2024 reached CNY 262,227.0 billion, accounting for 64.6% of the annual fiscal budget target, indicating a relatively low level historically[17] - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal policies and promote high-quality economic development in the fourth quarter, with expectations for increased fiscal spending[17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] - The previous rating was also "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the accelerated digital transformation in finance, as highlighted by the recent statements from the Vice Chairman of the CSRC regarding the promotion of fintech applications in the capital market [2][3] - The company maintains a leading position in financial IT, which positions it well to capitalize on the ongoing digital transformation [3] - Continuous product iteration is expected to sustain the company's core competitiveness, with new systems and platforms being developed and signed with multiple new brokerage firms [3] - A recent stock incentive plan demonstrates the company's confidence in long-term growth, with performance targets set for net profit growth [3] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 7,568 million, with a growth rate of 3.9% [4] - The projected net profit for 2024 is RMB 1,472 million, reflecting a growth rate of 3.4% [4] - The estimated EPS for 2024 is RMB 0.78, with a downward adjustment of 30.1% from previous forecasts [4] - The company’s PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 34X, 29X, and 24X respectively [3][4] Shareholder Information - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately RMB 49,816 million [2] - The major shareholder is Hangzhou Hengsheng Electronic Group Co., Ltd., holding 20.79% of the shares [2]