宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 3 月 2 日 2025 年 2 月 PMI 数据点评 2 月制造业产、需均有回升 2 月制造业产、需均有回升。"抢出口"对部分上游行业需求有所支撑。2 月非制造业 PMI 指数环比小幅回升。 qi.chen@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110003 2 月制造业产、需均有回升。2025 年 2 月，制造业 PMI 指数为 50.2%， 环比（1 月，下同）回升 1.1 个百分点；春节假期后，制造企业复工复产 加速，景气度回升至扩张区间。着眼重要细分项，2 月新订单指数 51.1%， 环比回升 1.9 个百分点，其中，新出口订单指数环比回升 2.2 个百分点， 实现 48.6%。生产指数实现 52.5%，环比回升 2.7 个百分点；原材料库存 指数为 47.0%，继续下滑 0.7 个百分点；产成品库存指数为 48.3%，环比 回升 1.8 个百分点；从业人员指数为 48.6%，环比回升 0.5 个百分点；供 货商配送时间指数为 51.0%，环比回升 0.7 个百分点。企业预期方面，制 造业生产经营活动预期指数实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, suggesting a "stronger than the market" rating for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new and second-hand housing transaction volumes have shown positive growth on a month-on-month basis, although the year-on-year growth rates have narrowed due to the impact of the Spring Festival [2][5]. - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle have both decreased, indicating a tightening market [5][11]. - The land market has seen both volume and price increases, with a notable rise in land transaction values and a decrease in premium rates [5][9]. - The issuance of domestic bonds by real estate companies has increased significantly, reflecting a recovery in financing conditions [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes and market indicators, particularly in the lead-up to the Two Sessions, which could influence market stability and recovery [5][9]. Summary by Sections 1. New Housing Market Tracking - In the 8th week, new housing transaction volumes in 40 cities reached 2.0 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 20.8% and a year-on-year increase of 42.7% [12]. - The new housing transaction area was 213.8 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 21.3% and a year-on-year increase of 47.7% [21]. - Transaction growth rates for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities varied, with first-tier cities showing the highest growth [12][21]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 12.14 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 25.2% and a year-on-year increase of 322.0% [5][9]. - The total land transaction value reached 23 billion yuan, marking a month-on-month increase of 73.4% and a year-on-year increase of 2786.4% [5][9]. - The average floor price of land was 1895 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 38.5% and a year-on-year increase of 568.1% [5][9]. 3. Policy and Market Performance - The report notes that the issuance of local government bonds in Beijing and Guangdong is aimed at supporting urban renewal and land recovery projects, which are crucial for stabilizing the real estate market [5][9]. - The report suggests that the market is showing signs of recovery, with improved land auction premium rates and opening sales absorption rates, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate sector [5][9]. - The report advises focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and market presence in key cities, as well as those benefiting from policy support and market recovery [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the market index in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 3.45% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 8th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.25 percentage points [1][11]. - The tourism market remains robust, with expectations for steady growth in cultural tourism and consumer spending throughout the year, supported by favorable visa-free policies for inbound travel [1][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The social services sector's performance was highlighted by a 3.45% increase, ranking 8th among 31 industries, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.20% during the same period [11]. - Sub-sectors such as education (+7.22%) and professional services (+4.78%) showed significant gains, while tourism and scenic areas increased by 0.63% [14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a strong recovery in travel demand during the Spring Festival, with over 2.3 billion people traveling, a 6% increase from the previous year [24]. - The implementation of visa-free policies for ASEAN countries is expected to boost inbound tourism, particularly in regions like Xishuangbanna, which saw a 264.67% increase in foreign visitors in 2024 [1][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth prospects in the travel chain and related industries, including Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [4][38]. - It also highlights the potential of hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel and increased market share post-pandemic [4][38]. Company Announcements - Notable company announcements include the establishment of new business divisions by Lingnan Holdings to enhance market competitiveness and the investment by Miao Exhibition in a wholly-owned subsidiary to expand its professional exhibition business [30].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.00% this week, while the CSI 300 Index futures increased by 1.09%[2] - Thermal coal futures surged by 3.86%, and iron ore main contracts rose by 3.07% this week[2] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao decreased by 4 basis points to 1.25%[2] Asset Allocation Insights - The recommended asset allocation order is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[3] - As of February 20, 2025, the price of London gold reached $2,939.0 per ounce, marking a 12.0% increase since the beginning of the year and a 60.7% increase compared to 2022[3] - The geopolitical threat index averaged 159.1 from February 1 to February 18, significantly higher than the level on January 1[3] Economic Indicators - The ten-year government bond yield rose by 7 basis points to 1.72% this week, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.53%[2] - Global gold reserves increased by 0.81% year-on-year as of February 2025, with 0.77 percentage points attributed to purchases by central banks[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include a second rise in global inflation, a rapid decline in the US and European economies, and increasing complexity in international relations[3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - Star Bulk achieved a net profit of $300 million in 2024, with total revenue of $1.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%. The average TCE for the fleet reached $18,329 per day, up 16.2% year-on-year. HMM is planning to acquire SK Shipping for over $1.4 billion [2][14][15][16] - China Eastern Airlines reported a 19.71% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in January 2025, with a capacity increase of 11.89%. The new T5 terminal at Xi'an Airport officially opened on February 20, 2025 [2][18][19] - In 2024, China's express delivery volume reached 175.08 billion pieces, a year-on-year growth of 21.5%. The postal industry completed a total of 193.7 billion pieces, growing 19.2% year-on-year [2][23][24][25] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - Star Bulk's financial performance in 2024 includes a net profit of $300 million and a total revenue of $1.26 billion, with a significant acquisition plan by HMM for SK Shipping [14][15][16] - China Eastern Airlines saw a 19.71% increase in passenger turnover in January 2025, and the T5 terminal at Xi'an Airport commenced operations [18][19] - The express delivery sector in China achieved a volume of 175.08 billion pieces in 2024, marking a 21.5% increase [23][24] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air cargo demand remains stable, with January 2025 showing an increase in domestic and international cargo flights [27][31] - Shipping rates have declined, with the SCFI index at 1595.08 points, down 9.31% week-on-week and 26.37% year-on-year [35][36] - The express delivery business saw a 22.30% increase in December 2024, with total revenue reaching 137.89 billion yuan [44][45] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the industrial goods export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy, and Huamao Logistics [4] - It highlights investment opportunities in low-altitude economy trends and the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending companies such as Bohai Ferry and Haixia Co [4] - The report also emphasizes opportunities in the e-commerce express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the rapid development of downstream industries, suggesting a focus on certain electronic materials and new energy materials companies [2][7] - It emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies for their reform and performance improvement [2][7] - The report identifies high-performing companies in the refrigerants and vitamins sectors, as well as undervalued industry leaders and light hydrocracking sector leaders due to overall macroeconomic improvement [2][7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance and Price Changes - Among 101 tracked chemical products, 31 saw price increases, 33 saw declines, and 37 remained stable during the week of February 17-23 [28] - The average price of TDI in China dropped to 13,162.5 CNY/ton, a decrease of 11.21% from the previous week [30] - The average price of titanium dioxide increased slightly to 14,546 CNY/ton, up 0.43% from the previous week [31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in rapidly developing downstream sectors, particularly in electronic materials and new energy materials [2][7] - It recommends investing in energy state-owned enterprises and oil service companies due to their ongoing reforms and performance improvements [2][7] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand supported by policy measures, particularly in the fluorochemical and vitamin sectors [2][7] Key Stocks to Watch - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several technology and chemical companies [2][7] - The report identifies "golden stocks" for February as China Petroleum and Anji Technology [4][8][14]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that technology leaders are expected to drive the market upward, with a continued positive outlook on the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index due to multiple factors such as fundamental recovery, policy support, and the revaluation of tech leaders [2][8][9] - The growth style is positioned at the beginning of a three-year major trend, with 2025 expected to be a key year for structural market trends driven by growth [2][9] - The acceleration of the domestic AI industry chain is identified as a significant trend, with the EPMI index showing a recovery in emerging industry demand, indicating a supportive environment for the ongoing tech rally [2][9] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a rally driven by AI hardware, with historical trends showing three major phases of growth since 2010, each aligned with technological advancements and market conditions [2][26] - The current phase of the semiconductor market is characterized by a focus on digital chips, particularly in AI-related sectors such as edge SOCs, training inference chips, and MCUs, which are leading the market [2][26][32] - The AI industry chain is poised for a new round of growth following a brief consolidation, with strong performance expected in cloud services and AI applications, particularly in healthcare [2][33][37] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of the recent private enterprise forum, which has reinforced the strategic position of the private economy and emphasized innovation and collaboration, potentially marking a turning point for the market [2][8] - The performance of the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in housing prices across major cities, contributing to a more positive market sentiment [2][8][18] - The report notes significant capital expenditure increases from major tech companies like Alibaba, which is expected to enhance the AI infrastructure and cloud services market, indicating strong future demand [2][35][36]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" [1][32] Core Insights - The report highlights that the new energy sector is expected to see increased demand due to market-oriented reforms in photovoltaic pricing, which may lead to price increases in the short term [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms and the potential for improved profitability among leading companies in the silicon material, battery cell, and glass segments by 2025 [1][2] - The wind power sector is anticipated to experience steady growth in demand, driven by domestic and overseas project developments, which will benefit the profitability of complete machines and components [1][2] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sectors with expected profitability improvements, particularly in complete machines and casting segments benefiting from offshore wind and overseas demand [1][2] - The electric power equipment sector is expected to maintain high demand due to ongoing reforms in the power system and robust overseas grid renovation needs [1][2] - The hydrogen energy sector is projected to benefit from continuous policy support, with a focus on companies with cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production and hydrogen infrastructure [1][2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electric power equipment and new energy sectors rose by 2.9% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.97% [5][8] - The industrial automation sector saw the highest increase at 12.06%, while the photovoltaic sector experienced a decline of 1.21% [5][8] Industry Dynamics - In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.015 million and 944,000 units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 29% and 29.4% [18] - The report notes that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a plan to accelerate the high-quality development of the new energy storage manufacturing industry [18] - The report also mentions significant developments in the hydrogen energy sector, including the issuance of a development action plan by Jiangsu Province [18] Company Updates - Shenghong Co. expects a net profit of 426 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.70% [22] - Nanfang Technology anticipates a net profit of 365 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a growth of 29.79% [22] - JinkoSolar is planning to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Insights - The securities market is experiencing sustained trading activity, with mid- to long-term funds continuously entering the market, and broker mergers are progressing rapidly. The current valuation of the sector and institutional holdings remain low, suggesting continued investment opportunities in the brokerage sector [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on brokerages that lead in financial technology and have strong wealth management capabilities, as these are more likely to achieve performance elasticity in the current market environment. Key companies to watch include Dongfang Caifu, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities [3]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of institutional investors entering the market, driven by recent policy initiatives aimed at increasing the participation of long-term funds. This shift is expected to enhance market stability and create growth opportunities for brokerage firms [5]. - Financial technology investments are aiding brokerages in optimizing business processes and reducing operational costs, with many firms actively integrating advanced technologies such as AI and big data [5]. - The report notes significant progress in brokerage mergers, with several firms receiving regulatory approvals for mergers and acquisitions, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the industry [5]. Summary by Sections Market Activity - The trading activity in the A-share market has significantly improved since October 2024, with daily trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan. As of February 20, 2025, the average daily trading volume reached 1.34 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance rebounded to 1.87 trillion yuan, returning to 2021 levels [5]. Investor Structure - Recent policy measures have been introduced to facilitate the entry of mid- to long-term funds into the market, including enhancing the investment policies for commercial insurance funds and optimizing the management mechanisms for social security and pension funds [5]. Financial Technology - Brokerages are increasingly investing in financial technology to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs. The integration of advanced technologies is expected to further drive the digital transformation of the brokerage sector [5]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The report details several recent mergers and acquisitions within the brokerage sector, indicating a trend towards consolidation. Notable developments include the approval of Guosheng Financial's merger with its subsidiary and other significant changes in brokerage ownership structures [5].

Core Viewpoints - In January 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.3%, maintaining the same decline as December 2024 [5][4][6] - The number of cities with declining new home prices decreased by one to 42, with an average decline of 0.29%, which is a slight improvement compared to the previous month [5][6] - First-tier cities showed a slight increase in new and second-hand home prices, with new home prices rising by 0.1% and second-hand home prices also increasing by 0.1% [6][7] Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market in January 2025 continued to experience price declines, but the rate of decline has stabilized, indicating a potential bottoming out [5][6] - In first-tier cities, Shanghai and Shenzhen saw new home prices increase by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, while Beijing's prices continued to decline [6][7] - Second-tier cities experienced a turnaround with new home prices increasing by 0.1%, marking the first positive growth since June 2023 [7][8] Price Trends by City Tier - Third-tier cities saw new home prices decrease by 0.2%, with a notable narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [8][9] - The average decline in second-hand home prices in third-tier cities was 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, but also showing signs of stabilization [9] - The report highlights that only the prices of entry-level second-hand homes saw an expanded decline, indicating ongoing pressure in the lower segment of the market [9]