中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 策略周报 指数延续上行需要的条件 短期市场出现高低切换再均衡，静待宏观政策发力续补指数上行动力。 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 3 月 16 日 风格的短期均衡化与长期反转。本周市场延续中枢上行的震荡格 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 3 月 16 日 2 月金融数据点评 5 月之前货币政策或有望继续宽松 2 月新增社融和新增信贷低于万得一致预期；2 月央行公开市场净回笼带动 M0 同比增速回落；关注居民存款向人民币资产搬家的情况。 相关研究报告 《中银量化大类资产配置双周报 – 20250310》20250311 《春节因素扰动 CPI 回落，推动价格合理回升 任重道远》20250310 《周度金融市场跟踪》20250310 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 风险提示：全球通胀二次上行；欧美经济回落速度偏快；国际局势复杂化。 2 月新增社融 2.23 万亿元，较去年同期多增 7374 亿元，较 1 月少增 4.82 万亿元，低于万得一致预期的 2.65 万亿元。2 月社融 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance forecast for the company in 2024, with expected revenue growth of 32.39% year-on-year, reaching 17.907 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 34.29%, amounting to 1.878 billion yuan [6][5][7] - The PCB business is positioned to capitalize on structural opportunities, particularly in the AI computing and automotive electronics markets, with a revenue increase of 29.99% year-on-year, totaling 10.494 billion yuan [7][8] - The packaging substrate business is also expected to grow, with a revenue increase of 37.49% year-on-year, reaching 3.171 billion yuan, despite facing challenges such as rising raw material costs and fluctuating market demand [8][6] Summary by Sections Stock Recommendations - The report lists a selection of stocks to focus on, including Jitu Express (1519.HK), China Petroleum (601857.SH), and others, indicating a diversified investment strategy [1] Market Performance - The report provides an overview of market indices, noting a decline in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which closed at 3358.73, down 0.39% [3] Company Financials - The company is projected to achieve a gross margin of 24.83% in 2024, an increase of 1.40 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 10.48%, up 0.15 percentage points [6][7] - In Q4 2024, the company is expected to report a revenue of 4.858 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.51% [6] Business Segments - The PCB segment is expected to see significant growth driven by demand in telecommunications and data centers, with a gross margin of 31.62% [7] - The packaging substrate segment is focusing on capability building and market development, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing production capacity [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high growth in its PCB business by leveraging structural opportunities, while its packaging substrate business is accelerating the introduction of high-end products [3][5]. - The company is projected to generate revenues of RMB 21.33 billion, RMB 24.96 billion, and RMB 29.04 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 2.73 billion, RMB 3.20 billion, and RMB 3.58 billion [5][7]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 17.91 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.39%, and a net profit of RMB 1.88 billion, up 34.29% year-on-year [8]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is RMB 5.33, with a PE ratio of 23.9 times [5][7]. - The EBITDA for 2025 is expected to be RMB 4.16 billion, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [7][8]. Business Performance - The PCB segment achieved a revenue of RMB 10.49 billion in 2024, growing by 29.99% year-on-year, driven by demand in the communication and automotive electronics sectors [8]. - The packaging substrate business generated RMB 3.17 billion in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 37.49%, despite facing challenges such as rising raw material costs [8]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the potential recovery in the packaging substrate market and the continuous optimization of the company's project capabilities, driven by AI and automotive electronics [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with new home sales in first-tier cities experiencing significant growth due to favorable policies, while lower-tier cities remain under pressure [1][4] - The land auction premium rate has reached a new high in 42 months, indicating increased competition for land in key cities [1][4] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In February, new home sales in 40 cities totaled 775.7 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 14.2% [4][9] - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year increase in new home sales, with Shenzhen up 138%, Shanghai up 90%, Beijing up 44%, and Guangzhou up 19% [4][10] - Cumulatively, new home sales in first-tier cities increased by 9.0% year-on-year for January-February [4][10] Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home sales in February showed a year-on-year increase of 62.8%, marking the ninth consecutive month of positive growth [4][5] - The cumulative sales for January-February in 18 cities increased by 21.4% year-on-year [4][5] Inventory and Absorption - As of the end of February, the tracked new home inventory in 12 cities was 11.33 million square meters, down 1.3% month-on-month and down 15.1% year-on-year [4][10] - The overall absorption cycle for new homes is 14.5 months, reflecting a slight increase month-on-month but a decrease year-on-year [4][10] Land Market - The land market saw a seasonal decline in transaction volume in February, but the average premium rate reached 8.7%, the highest since August 2021 [4][10] - The average land price in first-tier cities was 23,019 yuan per square meter, up 55.4% year-on-year [4][10] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales amount of 192.2 billion yuan in February, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [4][10] - The land acquisition amount for these companies in February was 76.4 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 84.4% [4][10] Policy Environment - The government has emphasized the need to boost demand in the real estate sector, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting urban renewal [4][10] - The government work report outlines comprehensive measures to support the real estate market, including the promotion of affordable housing and urban renewal projects [4][10] Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market in February, with an absolute return of 5.4% and a relative return of 3.5% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [4][10] - The sector's performance is attributed to pre-conference policy expectations and positive sales during the Spring Festival [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Over Market" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Insights - The real estate market continues to show positive year-on-year growth in transaction volumes, with government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [1][3]. - New housing transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month, while year-on-year growth has expanded [3]. - The report highlights four key measures from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development to stabilize the housing market, including policy adjustments and urban renewal initiatives [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Housing Market, Second-hand Housing Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of March 1 to March 7, 2025, new housing transaction area decreased month-on-month, while year-on-year growth increased [12]. - The transaction volume for new homes in 40 cities was 21,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 27.2% but a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [13]. - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 8,882 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.1% [40]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions in 100 cities was 1,688.3 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 17.1% and a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [9]. - The total price of land transactions was 47.42 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 34.8% and a year-on-year increase of 30.1% [9]. 3. Industry Policy Review - The government work report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market and implement measures to boost housing demand while preventing risks [3]. - The Ministry of Housing has proposed four initiatives to support the market, including urban renewal and the acquisition of existing housing stock [3]. 4. Sector Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was -0.9%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the previous week [10]. - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) was 20.97X, a slight increase from the previous week [10]. 5. Company Announcements - The report includes a summary of key company announcements within the real estate sector for the week [10]. 6. Real Estate Company Bond Issuance - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 20.09 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 111.0% and a year-on-year increase of 40.8% [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [29]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the DeepSeek application is experiencing rapid growth, with web traffic reaching 571.4 million in February 2025, a month-on-month increase of 122.73%, making it the top AI chatbot in China and third globally [6][8]. - The collaboration between DeepSeek and Huawei's Ascend chips is expected to enhance AI computing capabilities, with Ascend's 910C chip achieving a yield rate of 40%, doubling from the previous year, which indicates significant improvements in production processes [18][20]. - The report anticipates a surge in demand for AI computing power driven by advancements in AI applications, particularly with the introduction of the Manus product, which requires significantly more computational resources compared to previous models [10][11]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks to watch include: - CCL: Nanya Technology, Shengyi Technology - PCB: Founder Technology, Shenzhen South Circuit, Shengyi Electronics - High-speed backplane module: Huafeng Technology - Power supply: Taijia Co., Ltd. [3][23] AI Computing Supply Chain - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic AI supply chains, particularly in light of potential restrictions on AI chips from the U.S. This shift could favor domestic suppliers like Huawei's Ascend [11][12]. - The integration of DeepSeek with domestic GPU technologies is expected to enhance the self-sufficiency of the AI industry in China, reducing reliance on foreign hardware [12][13]. Market Trends - The report notes that Alibaba plans to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the domestic AI sector [11]. - The rising yield rates of advanced chips, such as the Ascend 910C, are expected to lead to increased shipments and benefits for the domestic AI supply chain [20][21].

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential growth in the AI computing supply chain, particularly with the collaboration between DeepSeek and Ascend, which is expected to accelerate the domestic supply chain's expansion [5][6][7] - DeepSeek's web traffic reached 571 million in February 2025, marking a 122.73% month-over-month increase, indicating strong demand for AI applications [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic AI hardware infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in the next three years [6] Company Focus - The report lists a selection of stocks recommended for March, including Jitu Express (1519.HK), China Petroleum (601857.SH), and Anji Technology (688019.SH) [1] - The performance of the AI computing supply chain is closely tied to the advancements in the Ascend 910C chip, which has reportedly achieved a yield rate of 40%, doubling its previous performance [7] Industry Performance - The report provides an overview of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3379.83, up 0.41%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10861.16, up 0.33% [3] - It also highlights the performance of various industry sectors, noting that the beauty care sector saw a 4.78% increase, while the electronics sector experienced a slight decline of 0.32% [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The delivery of the world's largest specialized pulp transport ship by COSCO Shipping Special Transportation is a significant event, enhancing the company's capabilities in specialized cargo transport [2][14] - The Chinese government emphasizes the need for reforms in low-altitude traffic management and safety systems, which could open new opportunities in the low-altitude economy [2][17] - Jitu Express achieved profitability for the first time in 2024, with a total revenue of $10.26 billion and a package volume of 24.65 billion, indicating strong growth in the express logistics sector [2][22] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The world's largest specialized pulp transport ship, CSPC HORIZON, was delivered, enhancing the capacity for transporting various goods, including high-speed trains and renewable energy equipment [2][15] - The Chinese Spring Festival travel period saw Eastern Airlines transport 17.44 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, indicating a recovery in air travel demand [2][18] - Jitu Express reported a total package volume of 24.65 billion in 2024, with a revenue of $10.26 billion, marking a 15.9% year-on-year increase [2][23] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air cargo flights in February 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 17.34% for domestic routes and 41.04% for international routes, reflecting a robust recovery in air freight [25][29] - The shipping industry experienced a decline in container shipping rates, with the SCFI index dropping to 1436.30 points, a 27.43% year-on-year decrease [25][32] - The express delivery sector saw a 22.3% year-on-year increase in business volume in December 2024, with total revenue reaching 1378.90 billion yuan [43][44] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Special Transportation and China Merchants Energy [4] - It highlights investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, suggesting companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - The report recommends investing in express delivery companies such as SF Express and Jitu Express, indicating strong growth potential in the e-commerce logistics sector [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of the government's monetary policy on maintaining liquidity and active trading in the A-share market, which supports the continuous recovery of the industry fundamentals [5][6][7] - The focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrading presents new opportunities for investment banks, particularly in enterprise financing and mergers and acquisitions [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing stock issuance and merger restructuring systems to enhance the quality of listed companies and improve market resource allocation [6][7] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report notes that the low valuation of the brokerage sector presents continued investment opportunities, particularly for firms with strong financial technology and wealth management capabilities [5][6] - The government work report encourages the entry of long-term funds into the market, which is expected to enhance market stability and provide growth opportunities for brokerage firms [7] Electronic Industry - The report indicates that the emphasis on boosting domestic demand and technological advancement, particularly through AI, is expected to drive upgrades in consumer electronics [9][10] - The government plans to implement measures to stimulate consumption, including a special bond issuance of 300 billion yuan to support the replacement of consumer goods [10] Transportation Sector - The report discusses the government's commitment to building a unified and open transportation market, which aims to reduce logistics costs and promote cross-border e-commerce [14][15] - The growth of cross-border e-commerce is highlighted, with the market size increasing from 1.3 billion yuan in 2010 to 15.7 trillion yuan in 2022, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 23% [16] - The report emphasizes the role of AI and new technologies in transforming the transportation sector, including the development of smart connected vehicles and urban air mobility [17]