Economic Performance - In January-February 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.1%[4] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.8%[29] - Social retail sales increased by 4.0% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 4.5%[29] Sector Analysis - High-tech industries saw a significant growth in industrial added value, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1%[4] - Manufacturing investment rose by 9.0% year-on-year, while real estate investment fell by 9.8%[21] - Service consumption grew by 4.9% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in food and beverage sectors during the Spring Festival[13] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in infrastructure increased by 5.6% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in government spending[21] - Real estate investment showed signs of marginal improvement, with a reduction in the rate of decline compared to 2024[24] - The contribution of net exports to GDP was 30.3% in 2024, highlighting the importance of external demand[30] Risks and Outlook - Global inflation and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the US pose significant risks to domestic growth[31] - The economic growth target for 2025 remains at 5%, requiring a multi-faceted approach to stabilize growth[30] - Anticipated monetary policy easing before May 2025 aims to mitigate the impact of external demand fluctuations[30]

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the steady profit growth of Kunming Pharmaceutical Group in 2024, with a strong performance in the fourth quarter. The company's channel integration is nearing completion, and improvements in quality and efficiency are anticipated [4][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Kunming Pharmaceutical Group achieved an operating revenue of 8.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.34% (adjusted for retrospective changes, a growth of 9.07%). The net profit attributable to shareholders was 648 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.86% (adjusted for retrospective changes, a growth of 45.74%). The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 419 million yuan, up 25.09% year-on-year [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 2.944 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the fourth quarter was 261 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 68.51 [4]. Cost Management - In 2024, the sales expense ratio was 26.50%, a decrease of 4.82 percentage points year-on-year. The management expense ratio was 4.42%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year. The R&D expense ratio was 1.27%, up 0.15 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Strategic Developments - The completion of the acquisition of 51% of Kunming Huaren Shenghuo Pharmaceutical is a key move for the company to address competition with Huaren Sanjiu. This acquisition allows for further resource integration in the health sector and aims to enhance the market share of the company's products [5]. - The company is advancing its strategy of "big products + all channels + branding," with significant progress in integrating retail and medical system channels across the country. This integration is expected to continue to enhance quality and efficiency [5]. - In 2024, the company invested 143 million yuan in R&D, employing a model of "independent research + investment mergers + cooperative research + introduction of agents" to establish an innovative R&D pipeline covering key areas of elderly health and chronic diseases [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, with a focus on stabilizing the market and boosting demand [1]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with new home sales area turning positive on a month-over-month basis, although the year-over-year growth rate has narrowed [1][5]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including potential reductions in housing provident fund loan rates and support for housing consumption [5][10]. - The report suggests that the recovery of the market will depend on the continuation of demand-side policies and the progress of urban renewal and land acquisition [5][10]. Summary by Sections New Home Market Tracking - In the week of March 8 to March 14, 2025, new home transaction area in 40 cities was 2.383 million square meters, a month-over-month increase of 7.0% and a year-over-year increase of 15.9% [11][21]. - The transaction volume for new homes in first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showed varying growth rates, with first-tier cities experiencing a significant year-over-year increase of 39.2% [11][18]. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - The second-hand home transaction area in 18 cities was 215.8 million square meters, with a month-over-month increase of 5.3% and a year-over-year increase of 17.2% [49]. - First-tier cities saw a year-over-year increase of 46.3% in second-hand home transactions, while second-tier cities experienced a slight decline of 0.6% [49][50]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The new home inventory in 12 cities was 8.921 million square meters, with a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year decrease of 16.2% [38][39]. - The report notes that the inventory turnover period for new homes in first-tier cities is approximately 46.3 months, indicating a need for continued monitoring of market dynamics [25][46]. Land Market Tracking - The land market showed a significant decline, with total land transaction area in 100 cities dropping to 438.0 million square meters, a month-over-month decrease of 74.1% and a year-over-year decrease of 64.0% [7][10]. - The average land price per square meter was reported at 1830.9 yuan, reflecting a month-over-month decrease of 34.8% but a year-over-year increase of 11.8% [7][10]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - Recent government policies aim to support land reserves and stabilize the real estate market, including the issuance of special bonds for local governments [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for ongoing policy support to stimulate housing demand and ensure market stability [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Views - Policy stimulus is boosting confidence in the food and beverage sector, leading to a recovery in market sentiment and highlighting investment opportunities in undervalued segments [1][5] - The food and beverage sector saw a weekly increase of 6.2%, ranking second among the Shenwan primary industries, with other alcoholic beverages showing significant gains [2][8] - The introduction of substantial childcare subsidies in Hohhot is expected to benefit the dairy sector, contributing to a notable year-to-date increase in stock prices [5] Market Review - The food and beverage sector's weekly performance was +6.2%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which was +1.6% [8] - Sub-sectors such as other alcoholic beverages and pre-processed foods led the gains with increases of +8.4% and +7.8%, respectively, while seasoning and fermented products lagged behind with +2.6% and +1.5% [2][11] - As of March 14, the valuation of the liquor sector (PE-TTM) was 21.2X, while the overall food and beverage sector was at 22.1X [19] Industry Data - The average price of fresh milk in China was 3.08 RMB/kg as of March 7, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.5% [38] - The price of live pigs was 7.42 RMB/jin as of March 14, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [42] - The report highlights the significant impact of government policies aimed at boosting birth rates and consumer spending, which are expected to positively influence the food and beverage sector [5][50]

Market Performance - The stock market showed strength with only 3 out of 31 sectors declining, while the large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks, with the CSI 2000 rising by 1.3% and the CSI 1000 by 1.0%[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.6%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.6%[1] - The food and beverage sector led gains, with Kweichow Moutai rising by 5.9%, marking its largest single-day increase since October 2024[1] Trading Volume and Valuation - Average daily trading volume decreased by 3% to 1.66 trillion yuan from 1.70 trillion yuan the previous week[1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the CSI 300 stood at 12.8, while the CSI 1000 had a P/E ratio of 39.7, indicating a Z-score of -0.3[1] - The valuation of the computer sector remains high with a Z-score of 1.2, while the food and beverage sector has a Z-score of -1.3 despite its recent gains[1] Bond Market and Economic Indicators - The bond market continued to adjust downwards, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising by 8 basis points[3] - The overall liquidity in the market was balanced but slightly loose, influenced by central bank actions and market expectations[3] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2% to 103.7, while gold prices increased by 2.6% to $2984 per ounce[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock price will outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [1][4][15]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady profit growth in 2024, with a strong performance in the fourth quarter. The integration of channels is nearing completion, and improvements in quality and efficiency are anticipated [3][7]. - The acquisition of a 51% stake in Kunming Huaren Shenghuo Pharmaceutical is a strategic move to address competition with Huaren Sanjiu and further expand into the health sector [7]. - The company's strategy of "big products + all channels + branding" is progressing, with significant channel integration completed, which is expected to enhance quality and efficiency [7]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 9.22 billion, RMB 10.29 billion, and RMB 11.27 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 9.8%, 11.6%, and 9.5% [6]. - The expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 718 million, RMB 878 million, and RMB 1.067 billion, reflecting growth rates of 10.8%, 22.3%, and 21.6% [6][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.95, RMB 1.16, and RMB 1.41 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same years are expected to be 18.1, 14.8, and 12.2 [4][9].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 3 月 17 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250317 ■重点关注 【计算机】软通动力*杨思睿 郑静文。软通动力是国内 IT 服务领军企业， 收购同方计算机后开启"软硬一体"战略，在鸿蒙加速发展、信创政策落地、 人形机器人训练速度有望加快的背景下，软通动力有望迎来较大发展机遇。 市场指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3419.56 | 1.81 | | 深证成指 | 10978.30 | 2.26 | | 沪深 300 | 4006.56 | 2.43 | | 中小 100 | 6815.11 | 2.12 | | 创业板指 | 2226.72 | 2.80 | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料 | 5.41 | 钢铁 | (0.52) | | 非银金融 | 3.97 | 煤炭 | (0.12) | | 商贸零售 | 3.18 | 国防军工 | 0.13 | | 汽车 | 2.91 | 公用事业 ...

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