宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 2 月 9 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 节后第一周， A 股市场表现较好 一季度"政策组合拳"有望持续发力，我们维持此前的大类资产配置顺序：股 票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 ◼ A 股指数整体上涨。节后第一周（2 月 5 日至 2 月 7 日，下同），沪深 300 指数上涨 1.98%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 2.85%；焦煤期货下跌 0.52%， 铁矿石主力合约上涨 5.13%；余额宝 7 天年化收益率下跌 2BP 至 1.52%； 十年国债收益率下行 11BP 至 1.60%，活跃十年国债期货上涨 0.88%。 资产配置建议 ◼ 一季度"政策组合拳"有望持续发力，我们维持此前的大类资产配置顺序： 股票>大宗>债券>货币。 2025 年 1 月，制造业 PMI 指数为 49.1%，环比（2024 年 12 月，下同）回 落 1.0 个百分点，在春节假期的影响下，制造业景气度回落至收缩区间。 1 月部分高耗能行业出厂价格指数实现荣枯线以上水平，或对同期工业品 出厂价格表现有所支撑。具体行业方面，1 月石油加工炼焦业新订单和出 厂 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 2 月 9 日 1 月通胀点评 春节效应对 1 月通胀表现影响较为显著 1 月 CPI 同比增速符合万得一致预期，PPI 同比增速低于万得一致预期，春 节效应对 1 月物价表现的影响较大；1 月 CPI 同比增速较 2024 年 12 月上升， 一方面是服务价格表现较强，另一方面也是食品价格的拖累减小，但预计 2 月 CPI 同比增速将受高基数和春节效应退坡的双重影响，或较 1 月下行；PPI 同比偏弱主要是生产的季节性因素影响，但预计稳增长的宏观政策将在春节 后持续拉动生产端表现，因此年内 PPI 同比增速有望维持持续小幅上行。 相关研究报告 《中银量化大类资产配置双周报 – 20250207》 20250209 《基于公募重仓的"黑白马股"因子专题（优化 版 2.0）》20250207 《公募基金市场月度跟踪》20250205 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the rapid development of downstream industries, suggesting a focus on electronic materials and new energy materials companies [2][7] - It emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies for their reform and performance improvement [2][7] - The report notes the high prosperity of leading companies in the refrigerant and vitamin industries, and suggests attention to undervalued leading companies and light hydrocracking industry leaders due to overall macroeconomic improvement [2][7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance and Price Changes - During the week of February 3 to February 9, 2025, among 101 tracked chemical products, 46 saw price increases, 21 saw decreases, and 34 remained stable [27] - The average price of WTI crude oil decreased by 2.11% to $71.00 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell by 2.74% to $74.66 per barrel [28] - TDI prices increased by 4.81% to 14,575 CNY/ton, and MDI prices rose by 2.63% for pure MDI to 19,500 CNY/ton [29][30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in rapidly developing downstream sectors, particularly in electronic and new energy materials [2][7] - It suggests that the oil and gas extraction sector will maintain high prosperity, with energy state-owned enterprises improving quality and efficiency [2][7] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and several others in the new materials and chemical sectors [2][7] Key Market Trends - The report indicates that the demand for new energy materials is expected to grow, particularly in solid-state batteries and other emerging applications [2][7] - It also notes that the fluorochemical industry is experiencing sustained prosperity due to quota constraints and demand recovery [2][7] - The vitamin sector is expected to maintain high levels of prosperity due to improved demand and concentrated supply dynamics [2][7]

近期全球多款大模型产品发布，其中 DeepSeek系列模型、OpenAI 发布的 Operator 智能体 受到较高关注。我们认为近期的系列大模型创新，有望推动 AI 普惠、端侧 AI/智能体应用 加速，带动 AI 的广泛应用。随着自有创新加强和西方国家的制裁加剧，中国科技自主趋势 愈发强烈，A股科技资产或迎全面重估。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 评级面临的主要风险 电子 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 2 月 7 日 强于大市 AI 行业跟踪 中美大模型军备竞赛推动 AI 大时代开启， A 股 科技资产或迎全面重估 AI 应用发展不及预期、Agent 应用不及预期、国产 AI 供应链技术突破不及预期、 自动驾驶/人形机器人落地不及预期、西方国家制裁效果超预期。 相关研究报告 《电子行业 2025 年度策略》20241231 《端侧 AI 行业跟踪》20241121 《XR 行业跟踪》20241009 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子 证券分析师：苏凌瑶 lingyao.su@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080003 联系人：周世辉 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 21.13 and an industry rating of "Outperform" compared to the market [1][3]. Core Insights - The company, Zhongju Gaoxin, is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 679 million to RMB 1.018 billion in 2024, representing a decrease of about 40%-60%. However, the non-recurring net profit is projected to increase by 20%-40% year-on-year, reaching RMB 629 million to RMB 734 million [3][7]. - The company is actively pursuing internal reforms and recovering minority interests, which are expected to enhance the financial performance in the coming years [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s main revenue for 2022 was RMB 5.341 billion, with a projected decline to RMB 5.139 billion in 2023, followed by an expected increase to RMB 5.502 billion in 2024 and further growth to RMB 6.279 billion in 2025 [6][8]. - The EBITDA is forecasted to rise from RMB 749 million in 2023 to RMB 1.046 billion in 2024, and to RMB 1.295 billion in 2025 [6][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 592 million in 2022 to a profit of RMB 1.697 billion in 2023, followed by RMB 710 million in 2024 and RMB 903 million in 2025 [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The company is experiencing fluctuations in quarterly performance due to price adjustments and a challenging external consumption environment. The first quarter of 2024 is expected to show a revenue growth of 10.2%, while the second quarter may see a decline of 12.1% [7]. - The company is implementing cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, benefiting from lower raw material prices, which are expected to positively impact the non-recurring net profit in 2024 [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is recovering minority interests, which is anticipated to significantly contribute to the profit in 2025. The acquisition of a 20% stake in Chubang Company is expected to add approximately 6.31% to the net profit [7]. - The company has outlined a strategic plan to achieve RMB 10 billion in revenue for its main product line, Meiwai Xian, by 2026, although achieving this target may be challenging due to team integration and external conditions [7].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [130] Core Insights - The proposed 10% tariff on Chinese imports by the US is expected to lead to early shipments in the container shipping market [2][14] - Domestic travel in China is projected to reach 5.615 billion trips in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [18] - The express delivery market in China is experiencing significant growth, with a projected 21.5% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume for 2024 [25] Industry Highlights - **Tariff Impact**: The US plans to impose a 10% tariff on imports from China, which may cause a surge in early shipments in the container shipping market. This could disrupt shipping cycles and lead to increased freight rates [2][15] - **Domestic Travel Growth**: In 2024, domestic travel is expected to reach 5.615 billion trips, an increase of 724 million trips from the previous year, with urban residents contributing significantly to this growth [18][19] - **Express Delivery Market Dynamics**: The express delivery sector is shifting towards high-quality competition, with major companies focusing on service quality and international market expansion. In 2024, the total express delivery volume is expected to reach 1.758 billion packages, marking a 21.5% increase [25][26] Industry Data Tracking - **Air Cargo**: Air freight prices have shown an upward trend, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4447.00 points, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase [29] - **Shipping Rates**: The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has decreased to 2045.45 points, down 4.01% week-on-week [40] - **Express Delivery Volume**: In December 2024, the express delivery volume increased by 22.3% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 1378.90 billion yuan [50][51] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4] - Consider opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Explore investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shipping [4] - Look into e-commerce and express delivery investments, recommending SF Express and Yunda [4] - Pay attention to the aviation sector, recommending China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4]

Core Views - The focus of the report is on the recovery of domestic demand in China, particularly consumer spending, which is crucial for economic growth [5][6][7] - The report highlights the impact of recent tariff changes on market dynamics, with specific attention to the potential short-term fluctuations in demand and prices [9][10] - The manufacturing PMI for January 2025 indicates a contraction, primarily influenced by the Chinese New Year holiday, while certain sectors like hospitality and transportation show improvement [7][8] Company Focus - The report lists a selection of stocks recommended for February, including Jitu Express (1519.HK), China Petroleum (601857.SH), and CATL (300750.SZ), indicating potential investment opportunities [1] - The performance of these companies is expected to be influenced by macroeconomic factors, including domestic consumption recovery and tariff impacts [5][9] Industry Performance - The report provides insights into the performance of various industries, with the computer sector showing a significant increase of 6.27%, while the comprehensive index declined by 2.31% [4] - Specific industries such as defense and electronics also showed positive growth, while sectors like coal and food and beverage experienced declines [4] - The manufacturing sector's performance is under scrutiny, with the January PMI at 49.1%, indicating a contraction, and new orders showing a decline [7][8]

Economic Outlook - The focus of China's macroeconomic data remains on the recovery of domestic demand, particularly consumer spending, with a marginal consumption propensity of 68.3%, returning to pre-pandemic levels[10] - In 2024, final consumption expenditure contributed 2.2 percentage points to GDP growth, accounting for 44.5%, which is the lowest level since 2008[6] - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth in 2024 was 1.5 percentage points, the highest since 2002, indicating a strong performance in this area despite weak domestic demand[6] Policy and Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in January, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.5%, which aligns with market expectations[31] - The anticipated interest rate cuts for 2025 are estimated to be between 50-75 basis points, influenced by uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies[32] - The short-term strength of the US dollar is supported by a robust US economy and differences in monetary policy between the US and Europe, with expectations of continued strong fluctuations in the dollar index in the first half of 2025[37] Risks and Recommendations - The impact of new tariffs on Chinese exports is expected to be less severe than in 2018, with a potential maximum decline of 12.5% in exports to the US, which could reduce overall export growth by approximately 1.8 percentage points[18] - The need for sustained policy efforts to promote price recovery is emphasized, as the GDP deflator index has been negative for seven consecutive quarters[25] - Market volatility is likely to be influenced by changes in risk appetite due to external uncertainties, with gold prices expected to perform well amid these conditions, having recently surpassed $2800 per ounce[41]