Export Performance - From January to July 2025, China's exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year in USD terms, with a trade surplus of $683.51 billion[1] - In July 2025, exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while imports rose by 4.1%, leading to a monthly trade surplus of $98.24 billion[1] - ASEAN and EU contributed positively to July's export growth, with contributions of 2.6 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively[1] Import Trends - From January to July 2025, imports decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first half of the year[1] - In July 2025, imports showed a month-on-month increase of 1.8%, indicating a slight recovery in domestic demand[1] - Key imported raw materials like oil, black metals, and copper showed improved year-on-year performance, suggesting a recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure investment[1] Sector-Specific Insights - Mechanical and electrical products maintained export advantages, with integrated circuits, ships, and general machinery showing year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 15.5%, and 13.5%, respectively[1] - Light industrial products like bags and furniture saw improved export growth, although overall performance remained below the average export growth rate[1] - The automotive sector continued to show positive growth despite high export baselines in recent years[1] Economic Context - The resilience in export growth is attributed to ongoing US-China trade talks and improvements in the prices of certain export goods, which helped offset declines in export volumes[1] - Risks include the potential for increased economic recession in Europe and the US, as well as a complex international situation[1]

Strategy Overview - The market in June is expected to remain in a state of waiting for a breakthrough, with large-cap stocks likely to see a recovery. Domestic demand momentum is anticipated to improve marginally, although April's industrial profits showed a decline in both volume and price, with cost reductions being the main driver for profit growth. The PMI for May indicates a slight recovery in domestic production demand compared to April. It is expected that growth-stabilizing policies will be implemented alongside resilient external demand, continuing the trend of weak inventory replenishment in the second quarter. However, global trade policies remain uncertain, compounded by concerns over rising US debt rates, which may pressure market sentiment in the short term. In June, various growth-stabilizing policies are expected to accelerate, maintaining a volatile consolidation pattern in the market. Key areas to monitor for a breakthrough include overseas tariff developments and the implementation of domestic growth-stabilizing policies in June. [5][7] June Stock Recommendations - The June stock selection by Zhongyin Securities includes: - SF Express (Transportation) - Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Bairen Medical (Healthcare) - Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Suochen Technology (Computers) [14][16] Performance Review of May Stock Selection - The stock selection for May outperformed the market, with notable performances from Jiemian Express-W and Yiwei Lithium Energy, both achieving over 10% monthly returns. The absolute return of the May stock selection was 3.87%, outperforming the market benchmark (CSI 300) by 2.02 percentage points. Three stocks achieved excess returns of over 5% compared to the CSI 300. [9] Company-Specific Insights SF Express (Transportation) - In Q1 2025, SF Express reported a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan, reflecting a stable growth trend. The company achieved a total express volume of 3.56 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with revenue reaching 69.85 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year. The net profit increased by 16.87% year-on-year, driven by continuous improvement in product matrix and service competitiveness. The gross profit margin was 13.3%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points. [16][17] Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Anji Technology is expected to see rapid growth in revenue and net profit in 2024, driven by increased market coverage and new product introductions. The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 58.45%, up 2.64 percentage points year-on-year. The company’s polishing liquid revenue reached 1.545 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.73%. The global semiconductor CMP polishing materials market is expected to grow from 3.42 billion USD in 2024 to 3.62 billion USD in 2025. [19][20] Bairen Medical (Healthcare) - Bairen Medical reported rapid growth in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant increases in revenue across all three major business segments. The heart valve replacement and repair segment saw a year-on-year growth of 64.28%. The approval of the TAVR product in August 2024 is expected to drive further growth in 2025. [24][25] Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Lingnan Holdings achieved a revenue of 4.309 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.43%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 116.08%. The travel agency and hotel management segments are expected to continue growing, particularly with the recovery of inbound tourism. [29][30] Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Qingdao Beer faced challenges in 2024 with a volume decline of 7.0% and a slight price increase of 0.5%. The company’s gross margin improved due to lower raw material costs, but net profit margin slightly decreased. Future growth is anticipated as restaurant demand recovers. [34][35] Suochen Technology (Computers) - Suochen Technology reported a revenue of 39 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.73%. The company is focusing on enhancing its CAE software capabilities and exploring AI applications in various fields. [38][39][40]

Core Insights - The report highlights a slight decline in public fiscal revenue in January-February, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, indicating a broader economic trend [6][8] - Fiscal spending is increasingly directed towards "people's livelihood" areas, with a notable year-on-year growth of 3.4% in public budget expenditure [7][8] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy, with a projected deficit rate of around 4% for the year [8] Macroeconomic Overview - In January-February, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 43,856 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year, with central budget revenue decreasing by 5.8% [6][7] - Local budget revenue showed a slight increase of 2.0% year-on-year, reflecting a mixed fiscal landscape [6] - The contribution of personal income tax to tax revenue growth was significant, achieving a positive contribution of 2.3 percentage points [7] Fiscal Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure reached CNY 45,096 billion in January-February, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [7][8] - Central government expenditure grew by 8.6%, while local government expenditure increased by 2.7% [7] - The report notes a shift in expenditure structure, with a decline in spending on infrastructure and a focus on social security and employment [8] Industry Performance - The report provides insights into industry performance, with coal and basic chemicals showing positive growth, while sectors like telecommunications and computers experienced declines [4] - The overall market indices reflect a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,369.98, showing no change [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the food and beverage industry [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is entering a performance verification period, with mixed feedback from the recent Spring Sugar and Wine Fair, highlighting increasing brand differentiation [3][4] - The beverage sector, particularly leading soft drink companies, has shown strong performance, while the snack food sector presents investment opportunities amid industry transformations [4][5] Market Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 4.0% last week, ranking 27th among the Shenwan first-level industries. The soft drink and beer sub-sectors performed relatively better with declines of 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively, while other alcoholic beverages and dairy products saw larger declines of 5.2% and 6.4% [4][13] - As of March 21, the valuation (PE-TTM) for the liquor sector was 20.3X, while the overall food and beverage sector stood at 21.2X [4][26] Industry Data - In January-February, the production of liquor (65 degrees, commodity volume) totaled 663,000 kiloliters, down 11.2% year-on-year; beer production was 5.261 million kiloliters, down 4.9%; and wine production was 15,000 kiloliters, down 25.0% [7][28] - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 83,731 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, including a 4.3% increase in catering revenue and a 5.5% increase in tobacco and alcohol sales [7][28] - The Spring Sugar and Wine Fair saw a subdued atmosphere, with over 6,600 exhibitors and an exhibition area of 325,000 square meters, indicating a shift in focus towards inventory management and cash flow recovery among liquor businesses [7][28] Company Performance - Leading soft drink companies like Dongpeng Beverage reported impressive growth, with revenue and net profit increasing by 40.6% and 63.1% year-on-year, respectively. The company also expanded into coffee and tea beverages [7][28] - The snack food sector is witnessing transformations, with major players adapting to market demands and enhancing their channel strategies. Companies like Wanjin Group and Three Squirrels are expanding their store formats and product offerings [7][28] - In the beer sector, there are opportunities for recovery among leading brands like Qingdao Beer, particularly in light of low base effects [7][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near future [3][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from policy incentives related to deep-sea technology and internal growth from a recent capital increase project, which will enhance its operational capacity and performance certainty for 2025 [5][10]. - The capital increase project, approved in December 2024, aims to raise 3.5 billion RMB to lease 29 multi-purpose pulp carriers and build a 65,000-ton semi-submersible vessel, which is anticipated to significantly boost the company's profitability and market share in high-end sectors [10]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2024-2026 is as follows: - 2024: 15,689 million RMB - 2025: 18,457 million RMB - 2026: 20,806 million RMB - The expected net profit for the same period is: - 2024: 1,480 million RMB - 2025: 1,923 million RMB - 2026: 2,234 million RMB - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast is: - 2024: 0.54 RMB - 2025: 0.70 RMB - 2026: 0.81 RMB - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.2 in 2024 to 8.7 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [9][11].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" [2][67] Core Viewpoints - The social services sector has seen a 2.49% increase in the last two trading weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.23 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 sectors [2][17] - The issuance of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" is expected to restore consumer confidence and address key issues hindering consumption [5][54] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the last two trading weeks (March 10-21, 2025), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.23%, while the CSI 300 dropped by 0.74%. The social services sector rose by 2.49%, outperforming the CSI 300 [17][24] - Among sub-sectors, hotel and catering saw the highest increase at 5.00%, followed by tourism and scenic spots at 4.98% [21][24] Market Dynamics - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" aims to expand domestic demand and enhance consumer willingness by addressing prominent consumption constraints [5][54] - Retail sales data for January-February 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, with total retail sales reaching 83,731 billion yuan [5][54] Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong growth potential include Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others in the travel and related industries [5][54] - Hotel brands benefiting from the recovery of business travel include Junting Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and Shoulu Hotel [5][54] Company Announcements - Lijiang Co. reported a revenue of 808 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.19%, with a net profit of 211 million yuan [41] - Jiuhua Tourism announced a revenue of 764 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a growth of 5.64% [41] Travel Data Tracking - Domestic travel has largely recovered post-pandemic, with significant increases in international travel due to relaxed policies [44][45] - The number of inbound tourists to Shanghai reached 6.71 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 84% [35]

Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerating demand for hydrogen energy in China driven by energy conservation and carbon reduction needs, with significant policy support from both domestic and international fronts [5][6][7] - The securities industry is expected to see a net profit growth of 9.8% year-on-year in 2024, supported by low base effects and policy boosts, particularly in proprietary investment and wealth management [9][11] Hydrogen Energy Sector - The demand for hydrogen energy in China is accelerating due to energy conservation and carbon reduction needs, with the EU's FEU and CBAM policies set to officially take effect, creating clear demand for hydrogen-based fuels in shipping and chemical sectors [5][6] - The European legislation aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, with specific measures like CBAM and FEU encouraging renewable fuel applications [5] - The Chinese government has issued action plans to promote hydrogen energy applications across various industries, indicating a shift towards hydrogen as a key industrial raw material [6][7] - The cost of green hydrogen production is expected to decrease due to falling renewable energy costs, establishing a foundation for the growth of hydrogen applications in China [7] Securities Industry - A total of 21 listed securities firms have pre-disclosed their 2024 performance, with 20 firms expecting profit increases, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [9][11] - The average daily trading volume for stock funds is projected to increase by 24.57% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in market activity [10] - The asset management business is expected to expand, with the total asset management scale of securities firms reaching 6.32 trillion yuan, a 6.67% increase from the beginning of the year [10] - The report suggests focusing on securities firms with strong financial technology layouts and wealth management capabilities, which are likely to show more performance elasticity [9][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][25]. Core Viewpoints - The consumer data for January and February 2025 shows a positive trend, with retail sales reaching 83,731 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, indicating initial success of consumption-boosting policies [3][4]. - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" has been introduced, aiming to provide multi-dimensional support for consumption growth, which is expected to stabilize consumer confidence and enhance market quality [4][3]. - Various data points indicate stable performance, with the service industry production index growing by 5.6% year-on-year in January and February 2025, and the service PMI at 50.3% and 50.0% respectively [4][3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Macro Data - Retail sales in January and February 2025 increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with catering revenue up by 4.3% [1][4]. - The service sector PMI for January and February was 50.3% and 50.0%, respectively, indicating stable business activity [1][4]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies likely to benefit from the recovery in tourism and travel demand, such as Lingnan Holdings and Zhongxin Tourism [3]. - Companies in the business and exhibition sector, like Miao Exhibition, are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel [3]. - Other recommended companies include Tianmu Lake, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performing Arts, and various hotel chains that will benefit from the recovery in travel and entertainment [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 808 million for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 211 million, a decrease of 7.27% [4][7] - The report anticipates performance improvement from new project expansions, particularly the upgrade of the cable car system, which is expected to enhance peak season capacity [4][7] - The company has a stable dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of RMB 3.5 per 10 shares, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 854 million in 2025, RMB 913 million in 2026, and RMB 955 million in 2027, with growth rates of 5.6%, 6.9%, and 4.6% respectively [6][8] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 0.42, RMB 0.46, and RMB 0.50, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23.1, 20.9, and 19.4 [4][6] - The EBITDA for 2024 is projected at RMB 382 million, with an expected increase to RMB 409 million in 2025 [6][8] Operational Insights - The company’s cable car operations received 6.6684 million visitors in 2024, an increase of 8.94% year-on-year, with significant growth in smaller cable car usage [7] - The hotel segment faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 11.09% year-on-year, attributed to the opening of a new hotel that incurred startup costs [7] - The introduction of visa-free entry for ASEAN tourists is expected to boost tourism in the region, positively impacting the company's performance [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential benefits for the aviation transportation sector due to the recent issuance of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" by the central government, which aims to expand cultural, sports, and tourism consumption [4][6] - The report emphasizes that regional air travel demand, particularly for regional airlines focusing on tourism-rich areas, is expected to gradually increase as GDP per capita rises [4][6] Industry Overview - The report notes that over 70% of domestic airports in China are regional airports, yet they only account for 6% of total passenger throughput [4][5] - In 2024, there are 263 domestic transport airports in China, with 186 of them (70.72%) having an annual passenger throughput of less than 2 million [4][5] - The passenger throughput for regional airports has remained stable at around 90 million in the past five years, with 2024 projected to see approximately 9.05 million passengers [5][6] Market Dynamics - The report identifies that in 2024, Huaxia Airlines holds the largest market share in the regional aviation sector at 13.4%, followed by China Eastern Airlines (12.9%) and China Southern Airlines (10.6%) [7] - The top ten airlines in the regional aviation market collectively account for 69.3% of the market share [7] Regional Distribution - Regional airports are distributed across 28 provinces in China, covering over 170 cities, with the highest concentrations in the Southwest and Northwest regions [6] - The report suggests that the demand for regional air travel in central and western China is expected to grow steadily due to the government's focus on promoting tourism [6]