房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 强于大市 中央经济工作会议解读 稳地产，去库存；方向大于方式 事件： 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。关于房地产的表述有两部分。一 部分在坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场中提到高质量发展城市更新。另一部分在坚 持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险中提到着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控 增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公 积金制度改革，有序推动'好房子'建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 核心观点 投资建议 风险提示 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《房地产底线逻辑研究系列报告一：银行直供房热 度背后的真相》（2025/12/05） 《10 月楼市成交同比增速由正转负；房地产高质量 发展列入新的五年规划——房地产行业 2025 年 10 月月报》（2025/11/18） 《受高基数以及政策效果减弱影响，单月销售降幅 扩大；今年以来投资降幅持续扩大——房地产行业 2025 年 10 月统计局数据点评》（2025/11/16） 《房地产行业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][13] Core Insights - The report discusses the implementation plan issued by six ministries to enhance consumer goods supply and demand adaptability, aiming to optimize the supply structure by 2027, creating three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [1][6] - By 2030, a high-quality development pattern of mutual promotion between supply and consumption is expected to be formed, with a steady increase in the contribution of consumption to economic growth [1][6] - The plan emphasizes the importance of new technologies and innovative applications, aiming to expand the supply of unique and new products while accurately matching the diverse needs of different consumer groups [1][3][6] Summary by Sections Overall Requirements - The plan aims for a significant optimization of the consumer goods supply structure by 2027, with a focus on creating high-quality consumer goods with cultural significance [6] - Key industries identified include smart connected vehicles, smart home products, consumer electronics, modern textiles, food, and green building materials [6] Accelerating New Technology and Model Innovation - The report highlights the promotion of flexible and customized manufacturing models, establishing a digital system that connects user demand with intelligent design and flexible production [6][7] - The integration of artificial intelligence across the consumer goods industry is emphasized, with a focus on developing smart home products and enhancing consumer experiences [6][7] Promoting Green Product Development - The plan encourages the expansion of green products and the promotion of low-carbon consumption trends, including the development of energy-efficient appliances and green building materials [6][7] Enhancing Consumer Experience - The report suggests creating new consumption scenarios and business models, leveraging technology to enhance consumer engagement through immersive experiences [6][7] - It also emphasizes the importance of establishing a robust environment for consumer goods supply and demand adaptability [6][7] Targeting Diverse Consumer Needs - The plan addresses the urgent need for products tailored to specific demographics, including children, students, and the elderly, promoting high-quality and safe products [6][7] - It encourages the development of personalized and modular learning tools for students and innovative fashion products for young consumers [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies related to employment, tourism, sports events, and cultural creative consumption, highlighting specific companies such as Keri International and Beijing Human Resources [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company benefits from the AI industry trend, with continuous product launches contributing to robust growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [3][8] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 54.83 billion, RMB 74.22 billion, and RMB 93.07 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 22.11 billion, RMB 27.65 billion, and RMB 34.38 billion [5][7] Summary by Sections Stock Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant performance, with a year-to-date absolute return of 100.7% and a relative return of 77.8% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 40.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57.83%, and a net profit of RMB 16.32 billion, up 66.89% year-on-year [8] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 61.46%, an increase of 3.34 percentage points year-on-year [8] Product Development - The company continues to lead in the DDR5 memory interface chip market, with sales of the third-generation RCD chip surpassing the second generation for the first time [8] - New products such as the CXL®MXC chip and clock chips are being introduced, with significant orders already in hand [8] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 68.5, 54.8, and 44.1 respectively, indicating a favorable growth outlook [5][10] - The company is expected to maintain a strong EBITDA growth trajectory, with estimates of RMB 2.06 billion, RMB 2.55 billion, and RMB 3.29 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of three new eyewear products by Meta during the 2025 Connect conference, including two AI glasses and one AR glasses, which are expected to accelerate the development of the AI/AR industry [1][7]. - Key features of the new products include significant improvements in battery life, ultra-high-definition video capabilities, and innovative muscle signal interaction technology [2][4]. Summary by Sections Product Features - The Ray-Ban Meta Gen2 glasses have nearly doubled battery life, lasting 8 hours on a full charge, and can achieve 50% charge in just 20 minutes [2]. - The new 3K ultra-high-definition video recording feature allows for 60 frames per second and double the pixel count compared to the previous generation [2]. - The "Conversation Focus" feature enhances voice clarity in noisy environments and now supports real-time translation in German and Portuguese [2]. Ecosystem Integration - The Oakley Meta Vanguard sports glasses are compatible with Garmin devices, allowing for hands-free operation and real-time updates on sports data through Meta AI [3]. - Users can overlay sports data on videos and photos taken with the Oakley glasses and share them on platforms like Strava and Instagram [3]. Advanced Technology - The Meta Ray-Ban Display glasses feature a high-resolution display and muscle signal interaction through the Meta neural sensing wristband, enabling silent control of the glasses [4]. - The display system boasts a high display precision of 42 PPD and includes features like visualized Meta AI responses, video calls, and real-time subtitles [4]. - New VR creation tools, Horizon Engine and Horizon Studio, have been introduced to simplify the production of VR content [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as GoerTek, Longqi Technology, Crystal Optoelectronics, and others that are likely to benefit from the advancements in the AI/AR sector [7].

Export Performance - From January to July 2025, China's exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year in USD terms, with a trade surplus of $683.51 billion[1] - In July 2025, exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while imports rose by 4.1%, leading to a monthly trade surplus of $98.24 billion[1] - ASEAN and EU contributed positively to July's export growth, with contributions of 2.6 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively[1] Import Trends - From January to July 2025, imports decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first half of the year[1] - In July 2025, imports showed a month-on-month increase of 1.8%, indicating a slight recovery in domestic demand[1] - Key imported raw materials like oil, black metals, and copper showed improved year-on-year performance, suggesting a recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure investment[1] Sector-Specific Insights - Mechanical and electrical products maintained export advantages, with integrated circuits, ships, and general machinery showing year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 15.5%, and 13.5%, respectively[1] - Light industrial products like bags and furniture saw improved export growth, although overall performance remained below the average export growth rate[1] - The automotive sector continued to show positive growth despite high export baselines in recent years[1] Economic Context - The resilience in export growth is attributed to ongoing US-China trade talks and improvements in the prices of certain export goods, which helped offset declines in export volumes[1] - Risks include the potential for increased economic recession in Europe and the US, as well as a complex international situation[1]

Strategy Overview - The market in June is expected to remain in a state of waiting for a breakthrough, with large-cap stocks likely to see a recovery. Domestic demand momentum is anticipated to improve marginally, although April's industrial profits showed a decline in both volume and price, with cost reductions being the main driver for profit growth. The PMI for May indicates a slight recovery in domestic production demand compared to April. It is expected that growth-stabilizing policies will be implemented alongside resilient external demand, continuing the trend of weak inventory replenishment in the second quarter. However, global trade policies remain uncertain, compounded by concerns over rising US debt rates, which may pressure market sentiment in the short term. In June, various growth-stabilizing policies are expected to accelerate, maintaining a volatile consolidation pattern in the market. Key areas to monitor for a breakthrough include overseas tariff developments and the implementation of domestic growth-stabilizing policies in June. [5][7] June Stock Recommendations - The June stock selection by Zhongyin Securities includes: - SF Express (Transportation) - Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Bairen Medical (Healthcare) - Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Suochen Technology (Computers) [14][16] Performance Review of May Stock Selection - The stock selection for May outperformed the market, with notable performances from Jiemian Express-W and Yiwei Lithium Energy, both achieving over 10% monthly returns. The absolute return of the May stock selection was 3.87%, outperforming the market benchmark (CSI 300) by 2.02 percentage points. Three stocks achieved excess returns of over 5% compared to the CSI 300. [9] Company-Specific Insights SF Express (Transportation) - In Q1 2025, SF Express reported a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan, reflecting a stable growth trend. The company achieved a total express volume of 3.56 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with revenue reaching 69.85 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year. The net profit increased by 16.87% year-on-year, driven by continuous improvement in product matrix and service competitiveness. The gross profit margin was 13.3%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points. [16][17] Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Anji Technology is expected to see rapid growth in revenue and net profit in 2024, driven by increased market coverage and new product introductions. The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 58.45%, up 2.64 percentage points year-on-year. The company’s polishing liquid revenue reached 1.545 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.73%. The global semiconductor CMP polishing materials market is expected to grow from 3.42 billion USD in 2024 to 3.62 billion USD in 2025. [19][20] Bairen Medical (Healthcare) - Bairen Medical reported rapid growth in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant increases in revenue across all three major business segments. The heart valve replacement and repair segment saw a year-on-year growth of 64.28%. The approval of the TAVR product in August 2024 is expected to drive further growth in 2025. [24][25] Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Lingnan Holdings achieved a revenue of 4.309 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.43%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 116.08%. The travel agency and hotel management segments are expected to continue growing, particularly with the recovery of inbound tourism. [29][30] Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Qingdao Beer faced challenges in 2024 with a volume decline of 7.0% and a slight price increase of 0.5%. The company’s gross margin improved due to lower raw material costs, but net profit margin slightly decreased. Future growth is anticipated as restaurant demand recovers. [34][35] Suochen Technology (Computers) - Suochen Technology reported a revenue of 39 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.73%. The company is focusing on enhancing its CAE software capabilities and exploring AI applications in various fields. [38][39][40]

Core Insights - The report highlights a slight decline in public fiscal revenue in January-February, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, indicating a broader economic trend [6][8] - Fiscal spending is increasingly directed towards "people's livelihood" areas, with a notable year-on-year growth of 3.4% in public budget expenditure [7][8] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy, with a projected deficit rate of around 4% for the year [8] Macroeconomic Overview - In January-February, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 43,856 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year, with central budget revenue decreasing by 5.8% [6][7] - Local budget revenue showed a slight increase of 2.0% year-on-year, reflecting a mixed fiscal landscape [6] - The contribution of personal income tax to tax revenue growth was significant, achieving a positive contribution of 2.3 percentage points [7] Fiscal Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure reached CNY 45,096 billion in January-February, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [7][8] - Central government expenditure grew by 8.6%, while local government expenditure increased by 2.7% [7] - The report notes a shift in expenditure structure, with a decline in spending on infrastructure and a focus on social security and employment [8] Industry Performance - The report provides insights into industry performance, with coal and basic chemicals showing positive growth, while sectors like telecommunications and computers experienced declines [4] - The overall market indices reflect a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,369.98, showing no change [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the food and beverage industry [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is entering a performance verification period, with mixed feedback from the recent Spring Sugar and Wine Fair, highlighting increasing brand differentiation [3][4] - The beverage sector, particularly leading soft drink companies, has shown strong performance, while the snack food sector presents investment opportunities amid industry transformations [4][5] Market Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 4.0% last week, ranking 27th among the Shenwan first-level industries. The soft drink and beer sub-sectors performed relatively better with declines of 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively, while other alcoholic beverages and dairy products saw larger declines of 5.2% and 6.4% [4][13] - As of March 21, the valuation (PE-TTM) for the liquor sector was 20.3X, while the overall food and beverage sector stood at 21.2X [4][26] Industry Data - In January-February, the production of liquor (65 degrees, commodity volume) totaled 663,000 kiloliters, down 11.2% year-on-year; beer production was 5.261 million kiloliters, down 4.9%; and wine production was 15,000 kiloliters, down 25.0% [7][28] - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 83,731 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, including a 4.3% increase in catering revenue and a 5.5% increase in tobacco and alcohol sales [7][28] - The Spring Sugar and Wine Fair saw a subdued atmosphere, with over 6,600 exhibitors and an exhibition area of 325,000 square meters, indicating a shift in focus towards inventory management and cash flow recovery among liquor businesses [7][28] Company Performance - Leading soft drink companies like Dongpeng Beverage reported impressive growth, with revenue and net profit increasing by 40.6% and 63.1% year-on-year, respectively. The company also expanded into coffee and tea beverages [7][28] - The snack food sector is witnessing transformations, with major players adapting to market demands and enhancing their channel strategies. Companies like Wanjin Group and Three Squirrels are expanding their store formats and product offerings [7][28] - In the beer sector, there are opportunities for recovery among leading brands like Qingdao Beer, particularly in light of low base effects [7][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near future [3][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from policy incentives related to deep-sea technology and internal growth from a recent capital increase project, which will enhance its operational capacity and performance certainty for 2025 [5][10]. - The capital increase project, approved in December 2024, aims to raise 3.5 billion RMB to lease 29 multi-purpose pulp carriers and build a 65,000-ton semi-submersible vessel, which is anticipated to significantly boost the company's profitability and market share in high-end sectors [10]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2024-2026 is as follows: - 2024: 15,689 million RMB - 2025: 18,457 million RMB - 2026: 20,806 million RMB - The expected net profit for the same period is: - 2024: 1,480 million RMB - 2025: 1,923 million RMB - 2026: 2,234 million RMB - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast is: - 2024: 0.54 RMB - 2025: 0.70 RMB - 2026: 0.81 RMB - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.2 in 2024 to 8.7 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [9][11].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" [2][67] Core Viewpoints - The social services sector has seen a 2.49% increase in the last two trading weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.23 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 sectors [2][17] - The issuance of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" is expected to restore consumer confidence and address key issues hindering consumption [5][54] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the last two trading weeks (March 10-21, 2025), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.23%, while the CSI 300 dropped by 0.74%. The social services sector rose by 2.49%, outperforming the CSI 300 [17][24] - Among sub-sectors, hotel and catering saw the highest increase at 5.00%, followed by tourism and scenic spots at 4.98% [21][24] Market Dynamics - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" aims to expand domestic demand and enhance consumer willingness by addressing prominent consumption constraints [5][54] - Retail sales data for January-February 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, with total retail sales reaching 83,731 billion yuan [5][54] Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong growth potential include Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others in the travel and related industries [5][54] - Hotel brands benefiting from the recovery of business travel include Junting Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and Shoulu Hotel [5][54] Company Announcements - Lijiang Co. reported a revenue of 808 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.19%, with a net profit of 211 million yuan [41] - Jiuhua Tourism announced a revenue of 764 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a growth of 5.64% [41] Travel Data Tracking - Domestic travel has largely recovered post-pandemic, with significant increases in international travel due to relaxed policies [44][45] - The number of inbound tourists to Shanghai reached 6.71 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 84% [35]