Core Viewpoints - In January 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.3%, maintaining the same decline as December 2024 [5][4][6] - The number of cities with declining new home prices decreased by one to 42, with an average decline of 0.29%, which is a slight improvement compared to the previous month [5][6] - First-tier cities showed a slight increase in new and second-hand home prices, with new home prices rising by 0.1% and second-hand home prices also increasing by 0.1% [6][7] Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market in January 2025 continued to experience price declines, but the rate of decline has stabilized, indicating a potential bottoming out [5][6] - In first-tier cities, Shanghai and Shenzhen saw new home prices increase by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, while Beijing's prices continued to decline [6][7] - Second-tier cities experienced a turnaround with new home prices increasing by 0.1%, marking the first positive growth since June 2023 [7][8] Price Trends by City Tier - Third-tier cities saw new home prices decrease by 0.2%, with a notable narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [8][9] - The average decline in second-hand home prices in third-tier cities was 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, but also showing signs of stabilization [9] - The report highlights that only the prices of entry-level second-hand homes saw an expanded decline, indicating ongoing pressure in the lower segment of the market [9]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [23] Core Viewpoints - In January 2025, the new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.3%, maintaining the same decline as December 2024 [6][11] - The report highlights that the new home price growth in second-tier cities has turned positive for the first time since June 2023, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [6][10] - The report indicates that the first-tier cities experienced a slight narrowing in price growth, with new home prices increasing by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices also rose by 0.1% [6][10] - The report suggests that the market's recovery since the fourth quarter of 2024 needs further validation, particularly in light of the upcoming Two Sessions and potential new policies [6][10] Summary by Sections Price Trends - In January 2025, 42 out of 70 cities saw new home prices decline, with an average drop of 0.29%, while 60 cities experienced a decrease in second-hand home prices, averaging a decline of 0.42% [6][12] - The report notes that the number of cities with rising new home prices was 24, while 4 cities remained stable [12][18] City Performance - First-tier cities showed resilience, with Shanghai's new home prices increasing by 0.6% and Shenzhen by 0.2%, while Beijing continued to decline [6][10] - In second-tier cities, notable increases were observed in cities like Nanjing (0.7%) and Chengdu (0.7%), with 55% of these cities reporting stable or rising new home prices [6][10] - Third-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2% in new home prices, with only a few cities like Wuxi showing slight increases [6][10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Greentown China and China Resources Land [6] 2. Smaller firms that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate [6] 3. Companies benefiting from local government debt relief strategies, such as Xinda Real Estate [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the communication industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The communication industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in 2025, driven by rapid development in AI applications and computing power expansion, with a focus on technological transformation [1][2] - AEC copper cables and CPO technology are anticipated to be the two major industrial directions in 2025, presenting significant investment opportunities [2] - The construction of low-orbit satellite constellations in China is expected to enhance service capabilities in remote education, healthcare, and disaster warning, while also promoting international cooperation [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication industry index outperformed the market with a cumulative increase of 28.82% in 2024, ranking third among 31 primary industries [9] - The overall holding ratio of the communication industry has significantly increased, indicating a favorable investment environment [10] Operators' Performance - Major operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom have shown stable revenue growth, with respective revenues of CNY 791.46 billion, CNY 391.97 billion, and CNY 290.12 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 2.05%, 2.99%, and 2.85% [13][14] - The net profit for these operators also increased, with China Mobile at CNY 110.88 billion, China Telecom at CNY 29.30 billion, and China Unicom at CNY 8.34 billion, showing growth rates of 5.1%, 8.1%, and 10.0% respectively [13] Demand and Growth Drivers - The demand for computing power is accelerating, with the telecommunications business maintaining steady growth and emerging businesses experiencing rapid increases [18] - The total revenue from telecommunications services reached CNY 1,453.5 billion in the first ten months of 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.6% [20] - The number of mobile users reached 1.79 billion, with 5G users at 1.002 billion, indicating a stable growth trend [22] Technological Innovations - CPO technology is highlighted as the next generation of optical interconnection technology, with significant advancements expected in data center architectures [38] - The report emphasizes the importance of CPO in reducing signal loss and improving system performance, which is crucial for meeting the demands of high-speed data transmission [43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on operators (China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom), optical chip/device manufacturers (Yuanjie Technology, Tianfu Communication, Taicheng Light), and satellite communication companies (China Satellite, Shanghai Hantong, Zhenyou Technology) [3][52]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - In January 2025, global new ship orders decreased year-on-year, with South Korean shipyards leading in new orders due to container ship demand. The total new ship orders were 68 vessels with a deadweight tonnage of 3.05 million, representing a year-on-year decline of 48.5% and 62.6% respectively [2][14] - The Suzhou General Airport is set to be completed in 2026, and the Beijing Capital Airport forecasts a reduced net loss for 2024, indicating a potential recovery in the aviation sector [2][15][17] - The e-commerce logistics index for January 2025 was reported at 109.2 points, with a slight decline from December 2024, while the government is initiating logistics data sharing trials in multiple cities [2][22][24] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hotspot Events - Global new ship orders in January 2025 saw a significant decline, with South Korea capturing 79.7% of the global order volume [2][14] - The Suzhou General Airport is projected to be operational by 2026, with a total investment of 27.17 billion yuan planned for 85 key transportation projects in 2025 [2][15][16] - The e-commerce logistics index for January 2025 was 109.2 points, down 3.5 points from December 2024, influenced by seasonal factors [2][22][23] 2. High-Frequency Dynamic Data Tracking - Air freight prices showed a downward trend from mid-February to late February 2025, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 3962 points, down 9.4% year-on-year [26] - The shipping and port sector experienced a decline in container shipping rates, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) at 1758.82 points, down 20.69% year-on-year [40] - The express logistics sector reported a 22.30% year-on-year increase in business volume for December 2024, with total express business volume reaching 178 billion pieces [50] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy, and Huamao Logistics [4] - It highlights investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - The report also suggests monitoring the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Stock [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The real estate market has seen significant increases in transaction volumes due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, with both new and second-hand housing transaction areas turning positive on a year-on-year basis [1][6] - The central bank is focused on ensuring the effectiveness of previously introduced financial policies to support the real estate market [1][6] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Housing Market, Second-hand Housing Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of February 8 to February 14, 2025, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities reached 16,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 156.5% and a year-on-year increase of 4578.0% [16] - New housing transaction area was 1.742 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 162.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3621.7% [21] - The inventory of new housing in 12 cities was 5.966 million square meters, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.5% [34] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total planned building area of land transactions in 100 cities was 9.694 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 456.4% and a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [25] - The total price of land transactions was 13.27 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 18.2% and a year-on-year increase of 53.8% [25] 3. Policy Overview - Recent adjustments in housing policies include the relaxation of housing loan terms in Chengdu and the complete removal of the two-year sales restriction in Chongqing [6] - The central bank's monetary policy report indicates a commitment to supporting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market through various financial measures [6] 4. Sector Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was 2.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous week, while the relative return compared to the CSI 300 was 0.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [13] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the real estate sector was 20.78X, an increase of 0.22X from the previous week [13] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, as well as smaller firms that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The real estate market experienced a seasonal decline in January transactions compared to the previous month, but there was a significant increase compared to the same month last year [1][5] - The land market saw a seasonal drop in transaction volume, but the premium rate reached a three-year high, indicating strong demand for quality land [1][2] - The overall sentiment in the real estate sector remains positive, with expectations of targeted policy support to enhance market recovery [2][3] Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In January, new home transaction volume in 40 cities was 898.8 million square meters, down 52.5% month-on-month and 11.9% year-on-year, but up 53.3% compared to last year's Spring Festival month [10][12] - First-tier cities saw a significant year-on-year increase in new home transactions, with Beijing and Shanghai experiencing declines in transaction volume [11][15] Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home transactions in January showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with a total area of 723.6 million square meters, despite a month-on-month decline of 39.5% [16][19] - First and second-tier cities maintained positive year-on-year growth in second-hand home transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decline [17][20] Inventory and Absorption - New home inventory decreased by 1.7% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year, with an overall absorption cycle of 14.2 months [5][10] - The average absorption rate for new projects in key cities increased to 44%, indicating a slight recovery in market activity [5][10] Land Market - The land market experienced a seasonal decline in transaction volume, with a premium rate of 8.1%, marking a significant increase from previous periods [1][2] - The average land price in first-tier cities showed a substantial year-on-year increase, reflecting strong competition for quality land [1][2] Corporate Performance - The top 100 real estate companies reported a year-on-year sales decline of 5.3% in January, influenced by the Spring Festival holiday [3][5] - The land acquisition amount for these companies increased by 43.4% year-on-year, driven by strong demand in key cities [3][5] Financing and Policy - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased by 17% year-on-year in January, indicating tighter financial conditions [3][5] - Central government policies are expected to support urban renewal and land reserve initiatives, which may enhance market stability [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report suggests focusing on companies in rapidly developing downstream industries, particularly in electronic materials and new energy materials [1] - It emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies [1] - The report highlights the high prosperity of leading companies in the refrigerant and vitamin industries [1] - It notes an overall improvement in macroeconomic expectations, suggesting attention to undervalued leading companies and those in the light hydrocracking sub-industry [1] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - During the week of February 10-16, 2025, among 101 tracked chemical products, 43 saw price increases, 26 saw declines, and 32 remained stable [7] - The average price of WTI crude oil was $70.74 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, while Brent crude oil was $74.74 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.11% [31] - The report indicates that the average price of potassium chloride increased to 2797 CNY/ton, up 4.19% from the previous week and 10.64% year-on-year [32] - DMF prices rose to 4300 CNY/ton, up 4.24% from the previous week but down 12.65% year-on-year [33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in rapidly developing sectors, including electronic materials and new energy materials [8] - It suggests that the oil and gas extraction sector will continue to see high prosperity, with energy state-owned enterprises improving quality and efficiency [8] - The report identifies specific companies to recommend, including China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and others in the new materials sector [8] Market Performance - The report notes that the average price of 42.57% of tracked products increased month-on-month, while 25.74% decreased [7] - It highlights that the chemical industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is at 21.81 times, within the historical 59.68 percentile [8] - The report also mentions that the price-to-book ratio is at 1.81 times, within the historical 11.94 percentile [8]

Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on financial reform in 2025, with a target of achieving a 5% economic growth in 2024. The monetary policy is described as flexible and effective, with measures including two reserve requirement ratio cuts totaling 1 percentage point and a provision of over 2 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2][4][5] - The report indicates a shift towards "moderately loose" monetary policy in 2025, contrasting with the "prudent" approach of 2024. Key changes include a target for liquidity moving from "reasonably ample" to "ample" and an emphasis on optimizing the use of various monetary policy tools [5][6] - The report notes that the central bank's role in macro-prudential and financial stability has become increasingly important, particularly in the real estate sector, where the focus is on revitalizing existing properties and land rather than solely on new housing demand [6][7] Market Performance - The report provides an overview of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3346.72, up 0.43%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10749.46, up 1.16%. The CSI 300 Index also saw an increase of 0.87% [3] - Sector performance is detailed, with the computer sector leading with a 3.52% increase, followed by pharmaceuticals at 2.41%. In contrast, the real estate sector experienced a decline of 1.42% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report lists a selection of stocks recommended for February 2025, including Jitu Express (1519.HK), China Petroleum (601857.SH), and Ningde Times (300750.SZ), among others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these companies [1][2]

Economic Data Overview - In January 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 7.06 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations by 586.6 billion yuan compared to the same month last year[3] - The total social financing stock grew by 8.0% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 7.9%[3] - New RMB loans amounted to 5.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 379.9 billion yuan year-on-year[3] Loan and Deposit Trends - January saw a significant increase in corporate loans, particularly medium and long-term loans, indicating a potential recovery in financing demand from the real economy[12] - New deposits increased by 4.32 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 5.52 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift influenced by the Spring Festival[11] - Corporate deposits decreased by 206 billion yuan compared to the previous year, highlighting the impact of seasonal factors[11] Monetary Supply and Policy Effectiveness - M2 money supply grew by 7.0% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 0.4% and M0 surged by 17.2%, indicating enhanced liquidity measures by the central bank[9] - The adjustment in M1 statistics, which now includes personal demand deposits, expanded the M1 base by approximately 65% compared to the previous year[9] - The central bank's monetary policy aims to improve macroeconomic control effectiveness, with potential for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[16] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S., and increasing international geopolitical complexities[17]

Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic report emphasizes the importance of reform in driving financial services to support the real economy[1] - The recommended asset allocation hierarchy is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[1] Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 Index increased by 1.19% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 1.56%[2] - Coking coal futures fell by 4.98%, and iron ore main contracts decreased by 0.73%[2] - The expected yield on bank wealth management products dropped by 1 basis point (BP) to 1.93%, and the 7-day annualized yield of Yu'ebao decreased by 23 BP to 1.29%[2] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 5 BP to 1.65%, while active 10-year government bond futures fell by 0.52%[2] Economic Data Insights - January CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply grew by 7.0% year-on-year, and M1 increased by 0.4% year-on-year[5] - New RMB loans amounted to 5.13 trillion yuan, and the incremental social financing scale was 7.06 trillion yuan[5] Policy and Market Outlook - The report suggests a focus on the implementation of "incremental" policies in the short term and the effects of growth stabilization policies in the medium term[4] - The outlook for the stock market is positive, with an overweight recommendation, while bonds and currency are underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect[4] - The report warns of significant uncertainties in the economic outlook for Europe and the U.S. over the next year[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, a rapid decline in the European and American economies, and increasing complexity in international relations[6]