基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 3 月 3 日 化工行业周报 20250302 国际油价小幅下跌，磷酸一铵、氯化钾价格上涨 3 月份建议关注：1、三四月份旺季可能涨价的品种，如农化、纺织化学用品、制冷剂等；2、年 报季报行情，如大型能源央企、轻烃裂解子行业龙头公司等；3、下游行业快速发展，建议关注 部分电子材料、新能源材料公司；4、宏观经济整体预期改善，行业龙头价值公司进入长期可配 置区间。 行业动态 投资建议 截至 3 月 2 日，SW 基础化工市盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 21.50 倍，处在历史（2002 年至今） 的 56.77%分位数；市净率（MRQ）为 1.81 倍，处在历史水平的 11.96%分位数。SW 石油石 化市盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 10.29 倍，处在历史（2002 年至今）的 9.28%分位数；市净率 （MRQ）为 1.21 倍，处在历史水平的 2.77%分位数。3 月份建议关注：1、三四月份旺季可 能涨价的品种，如农化、纺织化学用品、制冷剂等；2、年报季报行情，如大型能源央企、 轻烃裂解子行业龙头公司等；3、下游行业快速发展，建议关注部分电子材料、新能源 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 3 月 3 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250303 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】2025 年 2 月 PMI 数据点评*陈琦 朱启兵。2 月制造业产、需 均有回升。"抢出口"对部分上游行业需求有所支撑。2 月非制造业 PMI 指数 环比小幅回升。 | 市场指数 指数名称 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3320.90 | (1.98) | | 深证成指 | 10611.24 | (2.89) | | 沪深 300 | 3890.05 | (1.97) | | 中小 100 | 6599.38 | (2.72) | | 创业板指 | 2170.39 | (3.82) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料 | 0.14 | 计算机 | (5.36) | | 石油石化 | (0.27) | 通信 | (5.08) | | 银行 | (0.61) | 电子 | (4.84) | | 农林牧渔 | (0.78) ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 3 月 2 日 市场进入"两会"交易窗口期，风格或有轮动，科技虽有调整但预期幅度有 限，"两会"后、财报季，波动过后或将开启新一轮行情。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 策略周报 科技波动无需悲观，蓄力后仍有向上动力 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522 ...

金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 3 月 2 日 中银量化大类资产周报 市场短期回调，融资余额创新高，但增幅比例 未处于较大压力位 股票市场概览 本周 A 股下跌，港股下跌，美股下跌，其他海外权益市场走势分化。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：成长风格拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史低位；红利风 格拥挤度当前仍处于历史较低位置，近期快速下降。 小盘 vs 大盘：小盘风格超额净值及拥挤度持续处于历史低位；大盘风 格近期拥挤度下降至历史较低位置。 微盘股 vs 基金重仓：微盘股拥挤度持续处于历史极高分位，超额净值 近期下跌；基金重仓拥挤度近一年波动剧烈，当前处于历史高位，超额 累计净值处于历史低位。 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 资金面与动量/反转风格：当前资金总量处于长期下降阶段，反转较动量 长期占优，与经验一致。 A 股行情及成交热度 本周领涨的行业为钢铁、建筑、非银行金融；领跌的行业为通信、传 媒、计算机。 A 股估值与股债性价比 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为商贸零售、非银行金融、汽 车，居后的行业为医药、电力设备及新能源、石油石化。 利率市场 本周中国国债利率下跌，美国国债利率下 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" [1][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong sales in the new energy vehicle sector, with significant year-on-year growth in sales figures for major companies like BYD and Xpeng [1][18]. - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see increased demand due to market reforms in electricity pricing, leading to potential price increases in the short term [1][18]. - The wind power sector is projected to recover profitability as domestic and overseas demand remains robust, supported by ongoing project tenders and construction [1][18]. - The solid-state battery technology is anticipated to achieve mass production by 2027, benefiting companies involved in battery materials and equipment [1][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the hydrogen energy sector, with policies promoting its industrial development and applications in various fields [1][18]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - February sales figures show BYD at 323,000 units (up 164% YoY), Xpeng at 30,500 units (up 570% YoY), and Li Auto at 26,300 units (up 29.7% YoY) [1][18]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology projects a total lithium battery production of 1,170 GWh in 2024, a 24% increase YoY [1][18]. Photovoltaic and Wind Power - The National Energy Administration aims for over 200 million kW of new renewable energy generation capacity by 2025 [1][18]. - The report notes a rise in domestic photovoltaic module prices due to increased production and demand [1][18]. - CPIA forecasts global photovoltaic installations to reach 531-583 GW in 2025, reflecting a 0%-10% growth [1][18]. Hydrogen Energy - The European Commission has introduced a Clean Industrial Deal, positioning clean hydrogen as a key pillar for energy sovereignty, with plans to raise €100 billion for industrial decarbonization [1][18]. Company Performance - JinkoSolar expects a net profit of -1.012 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 114.66% YoY [1][20]. - Trina Solar anticipates a net profit of -3.455 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 162.46% YoY [1][20]. - Other companies like GCL-Poly and LONGi Green Energy also report significant declines in net profits for 2024 [1][20].

人民币资产价格本周普遍调整。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 2.22%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 2.13%；焦煤期货本周下跌 3.27%，铁矿石主力合约本周下 跌 4.41%；股份制银行理财预期收益率收于 1.90%，余额宝 7 天年化收益 率上涨 10BP 至 1.35%；十年国债收益率持平于 1.72%，活跃十年国债期 货本周下跌 0.05%。 资产配置建议 本期观点（2025.3.2） 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 3 月 2 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 两会即将召开，稳增长或从三方面入手 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 | 宏观经济 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一个月内 | = | 关注'增量'政策落实情况 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注四季度稳增长政策出台情况和实际效果 | 不变 | | 一年内 | - | 欧美经济前景仍有较大不确定性 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 关注'增量'政策落实情况 | 超配 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 3 月 2 日 2025 年 2 月 PMI 数据点评 2 月制造业产、需均有回升 2 月制造业产、需均有回升。"抢出口"对部分上游行业需求有所支撑。2 月非制造业 PMI 指数环比小幅回升。 qi.chen@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110003 2 月制造业产、需均有回升。2025 年 2 月，制造业 PMI 指数为 50.2%， 环比（1 月，下同）回升 1.1 个百分点；春节假期后，制造企业复工复产 加速，景气度回升至扩张区间。着眼重要细分项，2 月新订单指数 51.1%， 环比回升 1.9 个百分点，其中，新出口订单指数环比回升 2.2 个百分点， 实现 48.6%。生产指数实现 52.5%，环比回升 2.7 个百分点；原材料库存 指数为 47.0%，继续下滑 0.7 个百分点；产成品库存指数为 48.3%，环比 回升 1.8 个百分点；从业人员指数为 48.6%，环比回升 0.5 个百分点；供 货商配送时间指数为 51.0%，环比回升 0.7 个百分点。企业预期方面，制 造业生产经营活动预期指数实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, suggesting a "stronger than the market" rating for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new and second-hand housing transaction volumes have shown positive growth on a month-on-month basis, although the year-on-year growth rates have narrowed due to the impact of the Spring Festival [2][5]. - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle have both decreased, indicating a tightening market [5][11]. - The land market has seen both volume and price increases, with a notable rise in land transaction values and a decrease in premium rates [5][9]. - The issuance of domestic bonds by real estate companies has increased significantly, reflecting a recovery in financing conditions [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes and market indicators, particularly in the lead-up to the Two Sessions, which could influence market stability and recovery [5][9]. Summary by Sections 1. New Housing Market Tracking - In the 8th week, new housing transaction volumes in 40 cities reached 2.0 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 20.8% and a year-on-year increase of 42.7% [12]. - The new housing transaction area was 213.8 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 21.3% and a year-on-year increase of 47.7% [21]. - Transaction growth rates for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities varied, with first-tier cities showing the highest growth [12][21]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 12.14 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 25.2% and a year-on-year increase of 322.0% [5][9]. - The total land transaction value reached 23 billion yuan, marking a month-on-month increase of 73.4% and a year-on-year increase of 2786.4% [5][9]. - The average floor price of land was 1895 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 38.5% and a year-on-year increase of 568.1% [5][9]. 3. Policy and Market Performance - The report notes that the issuance of local government bonds in Beijing and Guangdong is aimed at supporting urban renewal and land recovery projects, which are crucial for stabilizing the real estate market [5][9]. - The report suggests that the market is showing signs of recovery, with improved land auction premium rates and opening sales absorption rates, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate sector [5][9]. - The report advises focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and market presence in key cities, as well as those benefiting from policy support and market recovery [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the market index in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 3.45% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 8th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.25 percentage points [1][11]. - The tourism market remains robust, with expectations for steady growth in cultural tourism and consumer spending throughout the year, supported by favorable visa-free policies for inbound travel [1][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The social services sector's performance was highlighted by a 3.45% increase, ranking 8th among 31 industries, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.20% during the same period [11]. - Sub-sectors such as education (+7.22%) and professional services (+4.78%) showed significant gains, while tourism and scenic areas increased by 0.63% [14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a strong recovery in travel demand during the Spring Festival, with over 2.3 billion people traveling, a 6% increase from the previous year [24]. - The implementation of visa-free policies for ASEAN countries is expected to boost inbound tourism, particularly in regions like Xishuangbanna, which saw a 264.67% increase in foreign visitors in 2024 [1][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth prospects in the travel chain and related industries, including Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [4][38]. - It also highlights the potential of hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel and increased market share post-pandemic [4][38]. Company Announcements - Notable company announcements include the establishment of new business divisions by Lingnan Holdings to enhance market competitiveness and the investment by Miao Exhibition in a wholly-owned subsidiary to expand its professional exhibition business [30].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.00% this week, while the CSI 300 Index futures increased by 1.09%[2] - Thermal coal futures surged by 3.86%, and iron ore main contracts rose by 3.07% this week[2] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao decreased by 4 basis points to 1.25%[2] Asset Allocation Insights - The recommended asset allocation order is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[3] - As of February 20, 2025, the price of London gold reached $2,939.0 per ounce, marking a 12.0% increase since the beginning of the year and a 60.7% increase compared to 2022[3] - The geopolitical threat index averaged 159.1 from February 1 to February 18, significantly higher than the level on January 1[3] Economic Indicators - The ten-year government bond yield rose by 7 basis points to 1.72% this week, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.53%[2] - Global gold reserves increased by 0.81% year-on-year as of February 2025, with 0.77 percentage points attributed to purchases by central banks[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include a second rise in global inflation, a rapid decline in the US and European economies, and increasing complexity in international relations[3]