Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Viewpoints - The recent policy announcements from the government are expected to boost market confidence and catalyze a beta rally in the brokerage sector, particularly benefiting "Internet+" brokerages [2][3]. - The introduction of new financial support policies is anticipated to bring in incremental capital, enhancing trading activity and improving the fundamentals of brokerages [2]. - The establishment of swap convenience tools is expected to expand the funding sources for brokerage proprietary trading, with an initial operation scale of 500 billion yuan [2]. - Long-term improvements in the business environment for brokerages are expected, driven by the introduction of patient capital and enhanced regulatory support for mergers and acquisitions [2]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The market is expected to see increased trading activity due to the introduction of new capital market policies, which will bring in incremental funds specifically for stock market investments [2]. - The policies include measures such as stock buyback loans and the creation of swap convenience tools, which are designed to enhance liquidity in the market [2]. Brokerage Sector Outlook - The brokerage sector is projected to experience a significant recovery in fundamentals, supported by the influx of new capital and improved market conditions [2]. - The focus on mergers and acquisitions remains a key investment theme, with brokerages that have strong capital bases and M&A experience likely to achieve better outcomes [3]. Long-term Growth Factors - The introduction of long-term capital from various financial institutions is expected to enhance the stability of the capital market and support the growth of brokerage services [2]. - Regulatory measures aimed at improving the quality of listed companies and encouraging share buybacks are anticipated to enhance investor sentiment and overall market performance [2].

Investment Rating - The report rates the communication industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The communication sector showed slight growth, with a positive outlook for future development [1] - The communication sector index increased by 0.29% in the 38th week of 2024, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (1.21%) and the CSI 300 Index (1.32%) but outperforming the ChiNext Index (0.09%) [5][7] - The report suggests focusing on satellite internet, optical modules, and 5G technologies as potential investment opportunities [1][37] Summary by Sections Market Review - The communication sector and its sub-sectors performed well, with only communication cables and network equipment experiencing declines of 0.20% and 1.19% respectively [5][7] - Communication engineering and services rose by 4.53%, telecom operators by 1.00%, and other communication devices by 5.74% [7][10] Sub-sector and Stock Performance - The mobile resale smart card saw the highest increase at 10.75%, while optical communication experienced a decline of 3.01% [10] - Notable gainers included Datang Telecom (33.05%), Dingxin Communication (21.43%), and Yitong Century (21.10%) [12][13] - Decliners included Dafu Technology (-12.35%) and Xinhai退 (退市) (-7.69%) [14] Industry Fund Flow - In the 38th week of 2024, the communication sector saw a net inflow of 300.90 million yuan, ranking second among 31 sectors [15][16] Industry News - China Mobile's "Breaking Wind 8676" chip has been integrated into over 30 devices, enhancing market competitiveness for 5G network equipment [19] - China Telecom's "Cloud Transformation" strategy has led to a 6%-8% growth in main revenue, with cloud computing business growing at 15%-20% [20] - China Unicom has launched quantum communication devices, marking a significant step in quantum technology integration [22] Recommended Stocks - Suggested stocks include optical modules (Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Huagong Technology), satellite internet (Chuangyi Information, Shanghai Huanxun, Huali Chuantong), and 5G (Canqin Technology, Shuo Beid) [37]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The recent rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions exceed previous monetary policy measures, with a total RRR cut of 50 basis points (bp) and potential additional cuts of 25-50 bp within the year[1] - The 7-day reverse repo rate was reduced by 20 bp, surpassing the 10 bp cut in July, which is expected to lower the medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate by approximately 0.3 percentage points[1] - The adjustments aim to enhance liquidity and reduce long-term funding costs for financial institutions, particularly in light of high MLF expirations at year-end[1] Group 2: Impact on Housing Loans and Consumption - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates is expected to lower rates by approximately 0.5 percentage points, benefiting around 50 million households and 150 million individuals, leading to an annual interest expense reduction of about 150 billion yuan[1] - This reduction in interest payments could increase consumer spending by approximately 105 billion yuan, potentially boosting overall consumption by 0.2 percentage points based on a 70% average consumption propensity[1] Group 3: New Monetary Policy Tools - New monetary policy tools include facilitating liquidity access for securities, funds, and insurance companies through asset pledges, enhancing their funding capabilities[1] - The introduction of special re-lending for stock repurchases and increases aims to guide banks in providing loans to listed companies and major shareholders, thereby supporting stock buybacks and market confidence[1] Group 4: Market Reactions - The policy measures have positively impacted the stock market, while the bond market has shown signs of price adjustments following the announcements[1] - The overall trend indicates that the downward adjustment of interest rates remains a long-term strategy, with domestic economic fundamentals being the primary influence[1]

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 9 月 24 日 美联储降息或推动航运市场需求提升，中秋揽 收快递包裹同比增长 35.4% 航运方面，美联储降息或推动航运市场需求提升，集运运价区域表现差异较 大。航空方面，去年我国民用运输机场货邮吞吐量 1439.95 万吨，国家物流 枢纽建设取得显著成效。快递物流方面，中秋揽收快递包裹同比增长 35.4%，9 月海鲜、水果等寄递需求旺盛。 ◼ 核心观点： ①美联储降息或推动航运市场需求提升，集运运价区域表现差异较大。 美联储降息将刺激美国消费端和投资端，提振美国本土经济，同时带动 美国贸易伙伴贸易量、大宗商品交易量及全球经济的增长。而贸易需求 复苏将在船舶行业绿色化发展及老旧船舶更新驱动市场的基础上，进一 步推动新造船市场中长期向好发展。本次美联储超预期降息之后，后续 新船订单中必须依赖进口的船用设备采购成本或将下降，船厂成本管控 压力有所减小。集装箱交易和租赁在线平台 Container xChange 日前发布 的最新数据显示，全球集装箱租赁费率稳定，但区域差异较大。今年 8 月，全球集装箱市场出现了显著的区域波动。中亚地区的集装箱现货价 格涨幅 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|--------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n9 月金股组合 | —— | 晨会聚焦 | | 2024 年 9 月 24 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 | | 股票代码 600309.SH | | 股票名称 万华化学 | | -20240924 | | 002409.SZ | | 雅克科技 | | | | | | | | ■ 重点关注 | | 300750.SZ | | 宁德时代 | | | | 603203.SH | | 快克智能 | | 【策略研究】策略对话行业 * 王君 张天愉 高天然。非银板块兼具红利支撑 | | 688198.SH 688085.SH | | 佰仁医疗 三友医疗 | | ...

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 9 月 24 日 强于大市 相关研究报告 《中秋出行数据及 8 月国内消费数据点评》 20240920 《社会服务行业双周报》20240908 《入境游市场系列报告》20240905 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 社会服务 证券分析师：李小民 (8621)20328901 xiaomin.li@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522090001 证券分析师：纠泰民 (8621)20328498 taimin.jiu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300524040001 社会服务行业双周报 中秋旅游市场表现平稳，国庆或将延续 前两交易周（2024.09.09-2024.09.20）社会服务板块下跌 1.77%，在申万一级 31 个行业排名中位列第 21。社会服务板块跑输沪深 300 指数 0.83pct。中秋 出行数据已得到公布，旅游出行市场逐步走出报复性修复区间，后续有望延 续稳定增长。十一将至，期待出行需求仍稳中有升，我们维持行业强于大市 评级。 市场回顾&行业动态数据 ...

Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector is supported by dividend advantages and policy catalysts, with a focus on high dividend yield sectors such as insurance, leasing, financial holding, and securities, which are expected to continue to show high cost-effectiveness [2][6][10] - The new "National Ten Articles" policy aims to promote high-quality development in the insurance industry, emphasizing product transformation and innovation, as well as increasing investment in strategic emerging industries and advanced manufacturing [6][9] - The acceleration of mergers and acquisitions in the brokerage sector is expected to boost market confidence, as regulatory support encourages concentrated development and highlights the importance of mergers and acquisitions [2][8][16] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial sector is currently characterized by a favorable dividend yield environment, with many high-dividend sectors experiencing significant price increases since early 2024, while sectors like leasing and financial holding still offer high dividend rates [2][6][10] - The stability of earnings in the non-bank financial sector is notable, with lower variance in return on equity (ROE) compared to more volatile sectors [2][6] Policy Catalysts - The "National Ten Articles" released on September 11 outlines a framework for the insurance industry's high-quality development over the next 5 to 10 years, focusing on risk prevention and regulatory measures [6][8] - Specific measures include enhancing asset-liability management, improving market exit mechanisms for underperforming insurance institutions, and promoting the development of floating income insurance products [9][10] Investment Opportunities - The insurance sector shows a robust average dividend yield, with major companies like Ping An and China Pacific Insurance yielding above 3%, indicating strong investor returns [10][11] - The multi-financial sector also presents high dividend yields, with companies like Haide Co. and Jiangsu Jinzhong leading in dividend performance [10][11] - In the brokerage sector, firms such as Huatai Securities and Guotai Junan are highlighted for their strong dividend yields and stability, making them attractive investment options [10][13] Mergers and Acquisitions - The brokerage sector is experiencing a surge in mergers and acquisitions, driven by regulatory encouragement and the need for firms to enhance their competitive edge through consolidation [16][17] - Historical trends indicate that mergers often occur at low valuation points, suggesting potential for upward valuation adjustments as market conditions improve [16][17]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n9 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n股票名称 | | 2024 年 9 月 23 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20240923 | | 600309.SH | | 万华化学 | | | | 002409.SZ | | 雅克科技 | | | | | | | | ■ 重点关注 | | 300750.SZ | | 宁德时代 | | | | 603203.SH | | 快克智能 | | 【宏观经济】 8 月外汇市场分析报告 * 管涛 刘立品。受美联储宽松预期的影 | ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2024 年 9 月 22 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 美联储正式开启降息周期 大类资产配置顺序：债券>大宗>股票>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 ◼ 经济数据：1-8 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比下降 2.6%，全国一般公共 预算支出同比增长 1.5%。 ◼ 要闻：中秋假期期间，全社会跨区域人员流动量预计日均超 2.05 亿人次， 比 2023 年同期增长 28.2%，全国国内出游 1.07 亿人次，按可比口径较 2019 年同期增长 6.3%，国内游客出游总花费 510.47 亿元，较 2019 年同期增长 8%；美联储 9 月降息 50BP，日央行、英国央行维持利率不变。 资产表现回顾 ◼ 人民币汇率升值带动人民币资产价格上涨。本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.32%， 沪深 300 股指期货上涨 0.07%；焦煤期货本周上涨 5.0%，铁矿石主力合约 本周上涨 1.4%；股份制银行理财预期收益率收于 1.98%，余额宝 7 天年化 收益率持平于 1.38%；十年国债收益率下行 6BP 至 2.04%，活跃十年国债 期货本周上涨 0.3%。 资产配置建议 ◼ 大类资产配置顺 ...

医药生物 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 9 月 22 日 强于大市 医药生物行业周报 中国创新药研发实力持续增强，出海前景可期。 申万医药生物指数在 2024.09.18-2024.09.20 期间下跌 0.79%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.11 个百分点。从医药生物子板块来看，近一周各子板块中医药商业板 块跑赢沪深 300，医药商业板块、医疗服务板块和中药板块实现正向收益。 板块行情 ◼ 申万医药生物指数在 2024.09.18-2024.09.20 期间下跌 0.79%，排名第 31 名，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.11 个百分点。从医药生物子板块来看，近一周 各子板块中医药商业板块跑赢沪深 300，医药商业板块、医疗服务板块和 中药板块实现正向收益。截至 2024 年 9 月 20 日收盘，申万医药生物板 块市盈率（TTM）为 21.79 倍，仍然位于近年估值低位。 支撑评级的要点 ◼ 2024 年 ESMO 大会于西班牙举办，多家中国药企进行成果汇报。2024 年 欧洲内科肿瘤学会 ESMO 大会于 9 月 13 日至 17 日在西班牙巴塞罗那举 办，多家中国药企参会并进行成果汇报。 ...