证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-----------|-----------------|----------|--------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 晨会纪要 晨会纪要 | | | 2024 年 | 12 月 | 04 日 | | | | 市场数据 | | | | | 晨会聚焦 | | 指数名称 | | 收盘 | 涨跌 | % | 一、财信研究观点 | | 上证指数 | | 3378.81 | | 0.44 | 【市场策略】大盘全天震荡，沪指收三连阳 | | 深证成指 | | 10713.58 | | -0.40 | | | 创业板指 | | 2245.50 | | -0.44 | 【基金研究】基金数据日跟踪 | | 科创 50 | | 1005.26 | | -1.04 | 【债券研究】债券市场综述 | | 北证 50 | ...

证券研究报告 行业点评 工程机械 2024 年 11 月 26 日 评级 领先大市 评级变动： 维持 行业涨跌幅比较 -11% -1% 9% 19% 29% 39% 2023-11 2024-02 2024-05 2024-08 工程机械 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | % | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 工程机械 | | 1.32 | 16.16 | 19.29 | | 沪深 | 300 | -2.06 | 15.66 | 8.76 | 陈郁双 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530524110001 chenyushuang@hnchasing.com 相关报告 1 欧盟高空作业平台终裁结果落地，风险释 放 2024-11-26 国家政策助力拉动内需，挖掘机市场保持景气 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|------ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - TSMC is advancing its large chip packaging technology, with expectations to achieve certification for its CoWoS technology by 2027, which will support up to nine reticle sizes and twelve HBM4 memory stacks [2][3] - The demand for large substrates is increasing due to the requirements of large chip packaging, which poses challenges in system design and data center support, particularly regarding power and cooling [3] - Glass substrates are expected to benefit from the trend towards larger chips due to their advantages in flatness, thermal stability, and packaging size, which can reduce waste during chip production [4] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - TSMC's CoWoS technology has evolved from N16 process in 2016 to the anticipated A16 process by 2027, driven by new demands such as AI [3] - The need for larger substrates, exceeding 120*120 mm for the largest chips, will impact system design and data center configurations [3] Glass Substrate Advantages - Glass substrates offer superior electrical performance, efficiency, lower costs, and better thermal expansion coefficients compared to organic substrates, making them increasingly attractive in the industry [4] - The area of a 12-inch wafer is approximately 73,000 square millimeters, while a panel size of 510*515 mm is about 263,000 square millimeters, allowing for more chips to be processed simultaneously [4] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Leading the Market" rating, suggesting that the industry will continue to see growth driven by innovations in chip technology and domestic demand for alternatives [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the issuance of new funds, with 24 funds planned for issuance in the week of December 2-6, 2024, targeting a total scale of over 48.8 billion [11][12] - The report emphasizes the launch of two ETFs focused on the semiconductor sector, which are expected to attract attention due to their thematic focus on chip design and technology [6][21] - The overall performance of the A-share market has shown positive trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.81% in the last week, indicating a favorable market environment for investments [22][23] Summary by Sections Fund Market Overview - The report notes that the fund market is experiencing a surge in new product launches, with a diverse range of fund types including passive index equity funds, bond funds, and mixed funds [11][12] - The report also mentions the issuance of agricultural insurance policies aimed at enhancing the precision of underwriting and claims processes, which could positively impact the agricultural sector [10] Recent Market Performance - The A-share and Hong Kong markets have shown upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index both recording gains [22] - The report indicates that the one-year government bond yield has increased, while the ten-year yield has decreased, reflecting mixed signals in the bond market [27] ETF Fund Flows - The report highlights significant net inflows into the ChiNext Index ETFs, with a net inflow of 2.651 billion yuan, suggesting strong investor interest in growth sectors [29] - The report also provides a detailed overview of major ETFs, including their total scale and recent performance metrics, indicating a robust interest in equity-based investments [32]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.13% to close at 3363.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.36% to 10756.55 points. The ChiNext Index rose by 1.42% to 2255.50 points, and the North Star 50 Index surged by 3.05% to 1321.62 points [5][11][19] - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 637448 billion, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.74 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.25. The Shenzhen Component Index has a total market capitalization of 222144 billion, with a PE ratio of 21.94 and a PB ratio of 2.24 [5][11] Industry Dynamics - The cosmetics industry is undergoing a transformation, with the Shanghai Municipal Drug Administration holding a meeting to enhance confidence, promote innovation, and mitigate risks. The focus is on building a high-quality cosmetics industry ecosystem and improving brand competitiveness [20][22] - In the new energy vehicle sector, several companies reported record sales for November 2024. BYD achieved sales of 507,000 new energy vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 67.2% [23] Company Tracking - Weili Medical (603309.SH) has received approval for its innovative product, a disposable hydrophilic coated visible nasogastric tube, to enter the special review process for innovative medical devices. This product aims to enhance the accuracy of tube placement and reduce the risk of cross-infection [24] - Cap Bio (300639.SZ) has been granted a patent for a method of isolating placental trophoblast cells from cervical exfoliated cells, which will be applied in prenatal screening and diagnosis [25] - Xian Dao Intelligent (300450.SZ) has won two awards at the 2024 High-tech Lithium Battery Annual Meeting, recognizing its leadership in solid-state battery technology and innovation [28]

2024 年 12 月 02 日 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|----------|--------| | | | | | 市场数据 | | | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌 % | | 上证指数 | 3326.46 | 0.93 | | 深证成指 | 10611.72 | 1.72 | | 创业板指 | 2224.00 | 2.50 | | 科创 50 | 1007.39 | 2.41 | | 北证 50 | 1282.50 | 3.06 | | 沪深 300 | 3916.58 | 1.14 | A 股市场概览 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------|--------------------|-----------|-----------| | 类别 | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 流通市 值 ( 亿元 ) | 市盈率 PE | 市净率 PB | | 上证指数 | 631454 | 490822 | 11.62 | 1.23 | | 深证成指 | 219116 | 186805 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.81% to close at 3326.46 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.66% to 10611.72 points during the week of November 25-29[3] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 14905.43 billion CNY, a decrease of 10.54% from the previous week[3] - The small-cap stocks outperformed, with the CSI 500 index rising by 1.77%[3] Economic Indicators - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate closed at 7.2332, down by 0.17%[3] - The manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 50.3%, indicating expansion for two consecutive months[22] - The industrial profits for October showed a year-on-year decline of 10.0%, but this was an improvement from the previous month's decline of 27.1%[25] Policy Outlook - Expectations for favorable policies are rising ahead of the December Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, which are anticipated to influence market trends[4] - The central bank has net purchased government bonds worth 200 billion CNY in November, continuing a trend of liquidity support[26] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on individual stocks rather than indices, with an emphasis on structural opportunities in technology and self-sufficiency sectors[4] - Key areas of interest include semiconductor, AI applications, and brokerage firms, which are expected to remain active as market conditions evolve[4] Risks - Potential risks include macroeconomic downturns, volatility in overseas markets, and deteriorating Sino-US relations[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the automotive industry [2][11]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry has shown a significant recovery in sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, which reached record highs in October 2024. The overall automotive production and sales in October were 2.996 million and 3.053 million units, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 7.2% and 8.7% [6][34]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies, such as the vehicle replacement subsidy and trade-in programs, which are expected to sustain growth in automotive sales through the fourth quarter [11][65]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: "Electrification," "Intelligentization," and "Globalization," suggesting that companies focusing on these areas will benefit from market trends and policy support [11][65]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive industry index outperformed the overall market from October 22 to November 21, 2024, with a growth of 7.06%, surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 6.26 percentage points [28][30]. - The static price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the automotive sector is reported at 25.88 times, compared to 12.99 times for the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [30]. Automotive Industry Data Tracking - In October, NEV production and sales reached 1.463 million and 1.430 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 48.0% and 49.6%, with a market share of 46.8% [6][34]. - The report notes that the overall automotive production and sales from January to October were 24.466 million and 24.624 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1.9% and 2.7% [6][34]. Policy and Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is implementing measures to expand automotive consumption, including promoting NEV usage in public sectors and enhancing support for technology innovation [54][56]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the government's vehicle replacement policies, which have led to a surge in subsidy applications, indicating strong consumer demand [11][64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2][7]. Core Insights - Semiconductor sales continue to grow, with global sales reaching $55.3 billion in September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. Cumulatively, from January to September, sales amounted to $445.8 billion, up 18.8% year-on-year [92]. - The report highlights a recovery in terminal demand, driven by structural needs in AI and new energy vehicles, contributing to the overall growth in semiconductor sales [92][107]. - The passive components sector is expected to maintain its growth momentum, benefiting from stable demand in downstream markets and the acceleration of domestic substitution [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Electronics Index increased by 14.4%, ranking fifth among Shenwan's primary industries during the review period [81]. - All sub-sectors within the electronics industry showed positive growth, with optical components leading at +28.6% [81]. 2. Semiconductor Industry Tracking 2.1 Semiconductor Sales - Global semiconductor sales reached $55.3 billion in September, with a year-on-year growth of 23.2% [92]. - China's semiconductor sales for September were $16 billion, also reflecting a 22.9% increase year-on-year [92]. 2.2 Memory Chip Prices - Memory chip prices have stabilized after a rebound, with DRAM prices showing mixed trends across different generations [99]. - As of November 19, the average spot prices for DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 were $0.82, $3.77, and $4.79 respectively [99]. 2.3 Semiconductor Equipment Sales - Global semiconductor equipment sales reached $26.78 billion in Q2 2024, marking a 3.8% year-on-year increase [107]. - China's semiconductor equipment sales for Q2 2024 were $12.21 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 61.7% [107]. 3. Terminal Demand Tracking - Global smartphone shipments reached 316 million units in Q3 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.01% [119]. - The report anticipates further growth in smartphone shipments due to the upcoming release of flagship models and promotional activities [119]. 4. PCB Industry Tracking - The report indicates a decline in the import volume of copper-clad laminates, while export volumes have increased [5]. - The average import price for copper-clad laminates rose to $33,500 per ton, influenced by raw material costs and new demands from AI [5]. 5. Passive Components Industry Analysis - The passive components sector achieved a revenue of 33.658 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.27% [6]. - The third quarter alone saw revenues of 12.119 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.31% increase year-on-year [6]. 6. Industry and Company Dynamics - The report highlights that Huawei is set to release new products that may benefit the related supply chain, particularly in AI and smartphone sectors [7]. - Companies such as Huadian Co., Ltd. and Fangda Group are noted for their potential growth in the semiconductor and passive components markets [7].

Market Overview - Major indices opened lower but rebounded throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3309.78, up 1.53% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.25% to 10566.10, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.73% to 2208.78 [4] - The overall market showed a strong rebound, with over 4300 stocks rising, and total market turnover reaching approximately 14874.71 billion [7] Economic Insights - In October, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China fell by 10.0% year-on-year, with a total profit of 58680.4 billion from January to October, down 4.3% [14] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 2683 billion 7-day reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [15] - The Hong Kong private residential property price index rose by 0.62% month-on-month in October, indicating a potential reversal in the long-standing trend of falling prices [21] Industry Dynamics - Intel received a subsidy of up to 7.86 billion USD from the U.S. Department of Commerce to support its semiconductor manufacturing projects [23] - The National Health Commission and other departments issued guidelines to promote mutual recognition of medical examination results, aiming to improve healthcare efficiency [24] - The pet food export value in October showed a year-on-year increase of 28.07%, with a total export value of 1.29 billion USD for retail packaged dog and cat food [27] - In October, the domestic smartphone market shipped 29.67 million units, with 5G smartphones accounting for 90.1% of the total shipments [28] Company Updates - Zhongxing Junye (002772.SZ) plans to invest 5.5 billion to establish a mushroom industry park, which will enhance its market share and profitability in the mushroom sector [29] - Youa Co., Ltd. (002277.SZ) is planning to acquire 82.37% of Shenzhen Shangyangtong's shares, which is currently in the planning stage [30]