[Table_Main] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Jul 2024 日本可选消费& 必需消费Japan Discretionary & Staples 关于《HTI 日本消费行业 6 月跟踪报告：通胀再次升温，入境游拉动可选消费》的错误修订 Corrections on Inflation Accelerated in June, Foreign Tourists Visiting Japan Continued to Boost Discretionary Consumption Errors [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦Investment Focus [Table_Info] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|------------|--------|-----------|-----------| | | | | 市盈率 | P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 迅销集团 | Outperform | 45,000 | n.a. | n. ...

炼油和化工 – 不及预期：受欧洲炼油利润率环比下降 37% 的影响，公司炼油和化工部门调整后净营业收入为 6.39 亿 美元，环比下降 34%，同比下降 36%，相较于预期的 7.92 亿美元降低了 19%。 6 SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service Disclaimer: Please read these terms and conditions below carefully and confirm your agreement and acceptance with these terms before using SusallWave FIN- ESG Data Service. SEBI Research Analyst Registration Number: INH000002590 25 Jul 2024 道达尔能源(TTE FP)：业绩稳健；回购延长；股息令人失望 scott.darling@htisec.com axel.leven@htisec.com [Table_summary] 事件 点评 勘探与生产 – 符合预期：由于"生产设施可用性高"且油价上涨，该 ...

研究报告 Research Report 24 Jul 2024 [Table_Info] 中国 & 中国 & 东南亚有色金属 China (A-share) & China (Overseas) & Southeast Asia Non-ferrous Metals 一年一度镍业大典 55 页深度（2024 版） The Annual Nickel Book 55 pages of in-depth report (2024 Edition) [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus 股票名称 评级 股票名称 评级 紫金矿业 Outperform 天山铝业 Outperform 洛阳钼业 Outperform 驰宏锌锗 Outperform 山东黄金 Outperform 万丰奥威 Outperform 中国铝业 Outperform 厦门钨业 Outperform 中金黄金 Outperform 锡业股份 Outperform 天齐锂业 Outperform 湖南黄金 Outperform 天齐锂业 Outperform 东阳光 Outperform 银泰黄金 Outper ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for Chinese companies as key suppliers benefiting from the energy transition in Europe and the United States [4]. Core Insights - China's LNG import prices and market prices have increased, with the LNG import price at $12.13 per million British thermal units, up 1.76% week-on-week [7][10]. - In June, China's industrial power generation maintained a stable growth rate, with total industrial power generation reaching 768.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [14]. - In the first half of 2024, India's power demand rose by 8.3%, with coal remaining the dominant source [2]. - The global carbon market in China has operated smoothly over the past three years, with trading prices gradually increasing [1]. Summary by Sections 1. China Energy Market and ESG Updates - LNG prices have risen, driven by high temperatures and cooling demand in eastern and southern China [12]. - Industrial power generation in June showed a stable growth rate, with hydropower increasing by 44.5% year-on-year [14]. - New wind power installations in China reached 25.84 GW in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of nearly 12.4% [1]. 2. U.S. Energy Market and ESG Updates - U.S. natural gas futures prices fell, while average spot electricity prices rose by 3.6% to $54.411 per MWh [2]. - California is seeing an increase in residential solar-plus-storage projects [2]. - Amazon has achieved its goal of 100% renewable energy ahead of schedule, operating around 300 rooftop solar projects [2]. 3. European Energy Market and ESG Updates - European natural gas futures prices increased, with electricity market prices trending upward [2]. - Greece is developing a 1 GW independent battery storage project [2]. - SHEIN announced a new circular fund with an initial investment of €200 million [2]. 4. Indian Energy Market and ESG Updates - ENGIE's special purpose company will build a 400 MW solar power plant in Gujarat [2]. - The federal cabinet approved a 1 GW offshore wind project in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu [2]. 5. Japan and South Korea Energy Market Updates - South Korea secured a nuclear power order, and Japan's Enfinity Global received $164 million in financing for a 250 MW solar project [2]. 6. Southeast Asia and Other Regions Energy Market Updates - Vietnam has approved a decree allowing direct power purchase agreements [3]. - A new large gas well was discovered in Bolivia [3]. 7. Energy Storage and Lithium Battery Market Updates - The average price of lithium carbonate has decreased, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 85,800 yuan per ton, down 5.25% [22]. - The total scale of energy storage in June reached 4.32 GW/10.29 GWh, with prices for two-hour energy storage systems averaging 0.62 yuan/Wh, down 51.2% year-on-year [22]. 8. Photovoltaic Market Updates - In the first half of 2024, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 102.48 GW, a year-on-year increase of 30.68% [27]. - The average price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has dropped significantly [30][35].

Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In May, Japan's retail sales for pharmaceuticals and bathing products reached approximately 1,467 billion yen, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] - Matsukiyo Cocokara reported a year-on-year same-store sales increase of 2.3% in June, with customer traffic down by 0.1% and average transaction value up by 2.4% [1] - Welcia's same-store sales in June also showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with customer traffic up by 1.7% and average transaction value up by 0.7% [4] Group 2: Beverage and Alcohol Sales - In May, the average expenditure on soft drinks for households of two or more was approximately 5,824 yen, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, while the soft drink CPI rose by 3.8% [4] - In June, major soft drink brands like Suntory, Asahi, and Kirin experienced a 5% decline in sales, while Coca-Cola saw a 1% increase [4] - The average expenditure on alcoholic beverages for households of two or more in May was about 3,603 yen, down 6.8% year-on-year, with the alcohol CPI increasing by 1.7% [4] Group 3: Food and Grocery Expenditure - In May, average household expenditure on meat products, dairy products, seasonings, and prepared foods remained flat or showed slight increases, with CPI changes of +2.1%, +4.6%, +3.8%, and +4.2% respectively [4] - The overall food price increase has suppressed household consumption, leading to a negative growth trend in actual spending across various food categories [4] Group 4: Dining and Restaurant Sector - In May, the average expenditure on dining out for households of two or more was approximately 14,534 yen, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0% and a dining CPI increase of 2.8% [14] - Major restaurant chains reported significant same-store sales growth in June, with companies like Sally's and Toridoll seeing increases of 31.9% and 17.7% respectively, attributed to more holiday days and increased tourist numbers [14] Group 5: Clothing and Department Store Sales - In May, average household expenditure on clothing was about 10,028 yen, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with clothing CPI at +2.1% [16] - Department store sales in Japan grew by 14.4% year-on-year in May, continuing a steady growth trend since March 2022, with flagship stores performing significantly better than others [21] Group 6: Tourism and Entertainment - In June, the number of inbound tourists to Japan reached 3.14 million, a record high, with total foreign tourist spending expected to reach 8 trillion yen (approximately 500 billion USD) for the year [29] - Average household expenditure on entertainment services in May was 16,868 yen, down 0.8% year-on-year, while the entertainment service CPI increased by 6.6% [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a NEUTRAL rating for Monster Beverage Corp (MNST US) with a target price of US$52.00, down from a previous target of US$60.00 [3][11]. Core Insights - Growth in the United States has slowed, but gross margins have expanded steadily, with Q1 2024 revenue at US$1,899 million (+11.8% YoY), operating profit at US$542 million (+11.7% YoY), and net profit at US$442 million (+11.2% YoY) [7][11]. - The company expects revenue growth to be driven by improvements in gross margin and price increases, with a projected gross margin of 54.3% in 2024 and 55.7% in 2025 [10][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company forecasts revenue of US$7.95 billion, net profit of US$1.81 billion, and EPS of US$1.74, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11.3%, 11.0%, and 12.3% respectively [11][6]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was reported at 54.1%, with an operating expense ratio of 25.5%, indicating a year-on-year improvement [10][11]. Regional Performance - Sales growth in North America was +8.1%, while Europe saw a significant increase of +28.4%. The Asia-Pacific region showed a modest growth of +0.2% [9][11]. - In the Chinese market, sales increased by 16.4% YoY, indicating strong potential for future growth [9][11]. Market Dynamics - The energy drink category in the U.S. is experiencing slower growth due to high previous growth rates and market saturation, but non-tracking channels like F&B and e-commerce are expected to perform better [8][9]. - The company has launched a new brand, "Hunting Beast," in China, which has received a positive initial response [9][10].

研究报告 Research Report 22 Jul 2024 名创优品 MINISO Group (MNSO US) 名创优品季报前瞻:海外展店加速,业绩表现坚韧 2Q24 Preview: Overseas Expansion Accelerated, Resilient Results Maintained [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | --- | |---------------------------| | [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 | | 评级 | | 现价 | | 目标价 | | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------------| | 市值 | US$5.43bn | | 日交易额 (3 个月均值) | US$27.64mn | | 发行股票数目 | 314.82mn | | 自由流通股 (%) | - | | 1 年股价最高最低值 | US$29.64-US$16.06 | 注:现价 US$17.14 为 2024 年 07 月 19 日收盘价 75 100 125 ...

Most Recent Full Quarter Prior Full Quarter Underperform Underperform 0 6% 0.8% Neutra Neutra 8.1% 8.8% Outperform Outperform 91.4% 90.4% 最新季度 上一季度 弱于大市 弱于大市 0.6 中倍 中特 0.8 8.8% 8.1% 优于大市 优于大市 91.4% 90.4% *在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。 上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。 只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。 Previous rating system definitions (until 30 Jun 2020): BUY: The stock'stotal return over the next 12-18 monthsis expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as ind ...

Japan's Manufacturing Policy - Japan has focused on rebuilding manufacturing competitiveness since 2015, with policies targeting green growth, AI, and semiconductor industries[1] - Japan allocated 220 billion yen in 2020 to support companies relocating production back to Japan to strengthen supply chain security[1] - Japan's manufacturing value chain position has risen from a low point to 1.2 since 2014[1] US Manufacturing Policy - US manufacturing exports accounted for 22% of global exports in 1948, but declined to 8% by 2008 due to global shifts[7] - The US government increased R&D funding 20-fold from 1940-1964, with federal R&D spending reaching nearly 2% of GDP in the 1960s[12] - US manufacturing's global value chain position rose from 1.3 in 2012 to 1.8 in 2018 after policy support[13] Historical Manufacturing Trends - Japan's heavy chemical industry exports grew from 53% of total exports in 1960 to 94% by 1970[19] - Japan's semiconductor market share surpassed the US, rising to over 50% by 1989 compared to 38% for the US[36] - US federal funding accounted for up to 70% of total R&D investment in the 1950s-1970s[16] Current Manufacturing Landscape - China's manufacturing value added accounted for over 30% of global manufacturing in 2022[46] - Japan's technology-intensive industries increased from 13% of manufacturing value added in 1994 to 17% by 2010[20] - The US proposed $100 billion for 10 key technology areas in 2020 through the Endless Frontier Act[30]

*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。 Outperform Neutral Underperform IB clients* 3.1% 4.8% 0.0% 截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日海通国际股票研究评级分布 *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. BUY, Neutral, and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above. Previous ...